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Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Reducing GHG through Low-Carbon Fuels and Fuel- Efficient Vehicles MAY 26, 2010 DAVID L. GREENE, Oak Ridge National Laboratory STEVE MARSHALL West Coast Corridor Coalition STEVE MARSHALL, West Coast Corridor Coalition ALAN JONES, Tennessee DOT

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Page 1: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Centerclimatechange.transportation.org/pdf/webinars/webinar_6_vehicles... · Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center ... Short

Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center

REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Reducing GHG through Low-Carbon Fuels and Fuel-Efficient VehiclesMAY 26, 2010

DAVID L. GREENE, Oak Ridge National Laboratory

STEVE MARSHALL West Coast Corridor CoalitionSTEVE MARSHALL, West Coast Corridor Coalition

ALAN JONES, Tennessee DOT

Page 2: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Centerclimatechange.transportation.org/pdf/webinars/webinar_6_vehicles... · Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center ... Short

Questions for the PresentersREAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Questions for the Presenters

During the webinar, please e‐mail your questions to [email protected]@p

Page 3: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Centerclimatechange.transportation.org/pdf/webinars/webinar_6_vehicles... · Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center ... Short

Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center

REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Reducing motor vehicle GHG emissions: Via fuel efficiency and low-C fuelsMay 26, 2010

Presented by:

DAVID L. GREENECorporate Fellow, Oak Ridge National LaboratorySenior Fellow, Howard H. Baker, Jr. Center for Public Policy, University of Tennessee

Page 4: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Centerclimatechange.transportation.org/pdf/webinars/webinar_6_vehicles... · Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center ... Short

Will a tax or cap-and-trade price on CO2 be ffi i t?

REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

sufficient?

A carbon price Energy Information Administration Analysis of Alternative GHGA carbon price that would cut C emissions from l

Energy Information Administration Analysis of Alternative GHG Reduction Policies ($30/tCO2 in 2010, $50/tCO2 in 2030)

3000

3500

ent

electricity generation in half by 2030 would  2000

2500s

CO

2 Eq

uiva

le

yhave little impact on transportation emissions (EIA

1000

1500

on M

etric

Ton

s

Transportation Reference

Transportation $50/tCO2

Electric Power Referenceemissions. (EIA, 2006). $50/tCO2approx. $0.50/gal. 0

500

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Mill

io

Electric Power $50/tCO2

Page 5: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Centerclimatechange.transportation.org/pdf/webinars/webinar_6_vehicles... · Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center ... Short

Fuel Economy Standards:REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Fuel Economy Standards:

#1 policy for transportation energy/oil i d d d GHG i iindependence and GHG emissions 

since 1975

Page 6: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Centerclimatechange.transportation.org/pdf/webinars/webinar_6_vehicles... · Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center ... Short

Success of CAFEREAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Success of CAFE

Essentially all ofEssentially all of the fuel economy improvement in the US in the past 30 years p ycan be credited to the Corporate Average FuelAverage Fuel Economy standards.

Page 7: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Centerclimatechange.transportation.org/pdf/webinars/webinar_6_vehicles... · Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center ... Short

Success of CAFEREAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Success of CAFE

According to FHWA Fuel Economy Of New Light Duty VehiclesAccording to FHWA data, on‐road fleet average fuel economy 

Fuel Economy Of New Light-Duty Vehicles Versus On-Road Fleet MPG, 1975-2005

20

25

followed the new vehicle improvements with a lag of about 10 

15

20

er G

allo

ng

years.

5

10M

iles

pe New Vehicle On-Road MPG

On-Road Fleet MPG

01975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Page 8: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Centerclimatechange.transportation.org/pdf/webinars/webinar_6_vehicles... · Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center ... Short

Success of CAFEREAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Success of CAFE

Past improvements Miles of Travel and Fuel Use by Light-duty Vehicles: 1965-2007Past improvements in fuel economy now save consumers 70‐80

Miles of Travel and Fuel Use by Light-duty Vehicles: 1965-2007

2500000

3000000

190000

240000

Vehicle Travelconsumers 70 80 billion gallons each year.

1500000

2000000

Mile

s (m

illio

ns)

140000

ns (m

illio

ns)Fuel USe

Public support for raising standards is usually 70‐80%. 500000

1000000

Vehi

cle

M

40000

90000

Gal

lon

01965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

-10000

Page 9: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Centerclimatechange.transportation.org/pdf/webinars/webinar_6_vehicles... · Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center ... Short

Changes in Vehicle Fleet Since 1975REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Changes in Vehicle Fleet Since 1975

From 1975 to 1981 LDV weight declined from 4 060 to 3 202 lbs Since then

Weight Horsepower MPG

From 1975 to 1981, LDV weight declined from 4,060 to 3,202 lbs.  Since then it has risen to 4,108 lbs.  Hp/lb. is up 60% over the 1975 level.

1.41.61.8

.0

Weight Horsepower MPG225 hp

4 10813 1 MPG

0 60.81.01.2

ex 1

087

= 1.

102 hp4,10813.1 MPG

0.00.20.40.6

Inde

1975 1981 1995 20091975 1981 1995 2009Source: U.S. EPA, Light-Duty Automotive Technology and Fuel Economy Trends: 1975-2007, p. ii.

Page 10: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Centerclimatechange.transportation.org/pdf/webinars/webinar_6_vehicles... · Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center ... Short

2010: New RulesREAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

2010: New Rules

On April 1 2010 the NHTSA and EPA established new rules forOn April 1, 2010 the NHTSA and EPA established new rules for light‐duty vehicle fuel economy and greenhouse gas emissions.

• 35.5 mpg by 2016 (26.4 in 2009) or 250 g/mi.

• Cars 37.8 mpg (30.9 in 2009)

• Light trucks 28.8 mpg (22.9 in 2009)ight trucks 8.8 mpg ( .9 in 009)

• Increased cost estimated at $926/vehicle

• Lifetime fuel savings estimated to be over $3,000 per vehicle.

• Will reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 21% by 2030• Will reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 21% by 2030.

• Further details at:

– http://www.epa.gov/otaq/climate/regulations.htm

Page 11: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Centerclimatechange.transportation.org/pdf/webinars/webinar_6_vehicles... · Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center ... Short

Effects of the New StandardsREAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Effects of the New Standards

According to the Predicted Impacts of Current Fuel Economy and EmissionsAccording to the Energy Information Administration, the new standards

Predicted Impacts of Current Fuel Economy and Emissions Standards on Car and Light Truck Fuel Economy

4045

the new standards will raise new vehicle fuel economy by 40%  25

3035

er G

allo

n

by 2016, but on road fuel economy by only about 25% 

5101520

Mile

s pe

New Car EPA Test

Light Truck EPA Test

On-Road Vehicle Stock

by 2020. 05

2007 2011 2015 2019 2023 2027 2031 2035

Page 12: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Centerclimatechange.transportation.org/pdf/webinars/webinar_6_vehicles... · Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center ... Short

Increased Flexibility and Strengthened I ti f Alt ti E V hi l

REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Incentives for Alternative Energy Vehicles

• Broader definition of passenger cars narrower definition of work trucks• Broader definition of passenger cars, narrower definition of work trucks

• More flexible use of fuel economy credits

• Footprint functions for passenger vehicles and light trucks.

– More equitable to full product line manufacturers

– Should improve highway safety

• Extension of FFV credits:• Extension of FFV credits:

– To 2019 for fuel economy standards

– Must show alt. fuel use by 2016 for emission standards

• No limits or phase out of credits for dedicated alternative fuel vehicles

• Zero GHG ratings for EVs and Fuel‐Cell Vehicles and the electric portion of PHEVs’ energy use, plus a multiplier of from 1.2 to 2.0 so each vehicle gy p pcounts more than once.

Page 13: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Centerclimatechange.transportation.org/pdf/webinars/webinar_6_vehicles... · Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center ... Short

Federal Oversight of Motor Vehicle Effi i

REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Efficiency

• The EISA of 2007 amended the CAFE law• The EISA of 2007 amended the CAFE law 

• Supreme Court ruled that EPA had authority to regulate GHGs under the Clean Air Act.

N th i h th it t i fl t hi l ffi i• Now three agencies have authority to influence motor vehicle efficiency:

– NHTSA: fuel economy

– EPA: national GHG emissions

– California Air Resources Board: CA GHGs

• EISA required study of heavy truck fuel economy standards.

• Last week, President Obama directed DOT and EPA to issue standards for ,medium and heavy trucks and extend LDV standards beyond 2016.

Page 14: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Centerclimatechange.transportation.org/pdf/webinars/webinar_6_vehicles... · Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center ... Short

Freight Energy Intensity by ModeREAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Freight Energy Intensity by Mode

Rail and air E I t it T d f U S F i ht dRail and air transport have reduced their

Energy Intensity Trends of U.S. Freight and Passenger Modes, 1970-2005

1 0

1.2

reduced their energy intensity far 

0.8

1.070

= 1

.0

more than heavy trucks.  Wh ?

0.4

0.6

ndex

, 197

Heavy Trucks (V-M)Domestic waterborne (T-M)

Why?

0.0

0.2

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

I ( )Automobiles (P-M)Rail (T-M)Air Passenger (P-M)

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005Source: Transportation Energy Databook, tables 2-13, 2-14 & 2-16.

Page 15: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Centerclimatechange.transportation.org/pdf/webinars/webinar_6_vehicles... · Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center ... Short

Fuel Consumption Reductions to be Realized i T k

REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

in Trucks

The President’sThe President s directive was influenced by the NAS’s heavy truck fuel economyfuel economy study released in March. The committee believed that thebelieved that the improvements below could be achieved in new trucks in 2015-trucks in 20152020.

Page 16: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Centerclimatechange.transportation.org/pdf/webinars/webinar_6_vehicles... · Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center ... Short

Cost-Effective TechnologiesREAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Cost Effective Technologies

At any given time engineers found they couldMedium Term (2013-2018) Long Term (2019-2025)Short Term (2006-2012)

At any given time, engineers found they could list many technologies that could improve fuel economy apparently cost‐effectively.

TECHNOLOGY TYPECumulative GHG Benefit [%]

Cumulative RPE [US$]

Cumulative GHG Benefit [%]

Cumulative RPE [US$]

Cumulative GHG Benefit [%]

Cumulative RPE [US$]

Early Torque Converter Lockup 0.50 5 0.50 5 0.50 5Rolling Resistance Reduction by 10% 1.99 25 1.99 25 1.99 25Drag Reduction by 10% 3.95 53 3.95 53 3.95 53Rolling Resistance Reduction by 20% 3.95 53 5.30 85 5.30 85Drage Reduction by 20% 3.95 53 7.00 127 7.00 127Aggressive Shift Logic 4.17 58 7.21 132 7.21 132Improved Lube Oil 5.13 78 8.14 152 8.14 152Engine Friction Reduction by 8% I4 5.13 78 8.14 152 8.14 152Stoichiometric GDI I4 5.13 78 8.14 152 8.14 152Weight Reduction by 5% 5.13 78 10.99 308 10.99 308Engine Friction Reduction by 15% I4 5.13 78 10.99 308 10.99 308T h l M di T P t ti l C l tig yDOHC VVT (Intake) I4 5.13 78 10.99 308 10.99 308VVT (Intake plus Exhaust) DOHC I4 5.13 78 10.99 308 10.99 308Engine Friction Reduction by 8% V6 5.20 80 11.05 311 11.05 311Alternator Improvements 5.67 97 11.50 328 11.50 328VVL Discrete OHV-2v V6 5.67 97 11.64 334 11.64 334Stoichiometric GDI V6 5.85 104 11.81 341 11.81 341VVL Discrete OHC-4v I4 5.85 104 11.81 341 11.81 341Engine Friction Reduction by 8% V8 7.19 161 13.06 398 13.06 398Engine Friction Reduction by 15% V6 7.19 161 13.12 402 13.12 402VVLT Intake Continuous DOHC I4 7.19 161 13.12 402 13.12 402Engine Off at Idle(Manual Transmission) 7.19 161 13.12 402 13.12 402VVL Discrete OHV-2v V8 10.19 310 15.93 551 15.93 551Engine Friction Reduction by 15% V8 10.19 310 17.13 627 17.13 627

l i i

Technology% FC Red. Cost % FE Incr.

Early Torque Converter Lock-up 0.50% $5 0.503%Rolling Resistance Reduction by 10% 1.99% $25 2.030%Drag Reduction by 10% 3.95% $53 4.112%Rolling Resistance Reduction by 20% 5.30% $85 5.597%Drag Reduction by 20% 7 00% $127 7 527%

Medium Term Potential Cumulative

Electric Power Steering 11.71 390 18.54 707 18.54 707Five Speed Automatic Transmissions 13.80 587 20.46 904 20.46 904Six Speed Automatic Transmissions 14.62 590 21.97 909 21.97 909Seven Speed Automatic Transmissions 14.62 590 22.52 959 22.52 959Continuously Variable Transmissions (Engines < 2.8L) 14.62 590 22.52 959 22.52 9594/5 Valves I4 14.62 590 22.52 959 22.52 959Camless Valve Actuation I4 14.62 590 22.52 959 22.52 959Stoichiometric GDI V8 14.62 590 25.39 1158 25.39 1158Weight Reduction by 10% 14.62 590 27.55 1558 27.55 1558Turbocharging & GDI with Engine Downsize V6 to I4 14.62 590 27.68 1575 27.55 1558DOHC VVT (Intake) V6 14.68 595 27.74 1580 27.61 1563DOHC VVT (Intake) V8 15.89 694 28.77 1679 28.64 1662VVT (Intake plus Exhaust) DOHC V6 15.89 694 28.80 1682 28.67 1665VVT (Intake plus Exhaust) DOHC V8 15 89 694 29 41 1758 29 28 1741

Drag Reduction by 20% 7.00% $127 7.527%Aggressive Shift Logic 7.58% $139 8.202%Improved Lube Oil 8.50% $159 9.290%Engine Friction Reduction by 8% I4 9.52% $189 10.522%Stoichiometric GDI I4 12.13% $278 13.804%Weight Reduction by 5% 14.85% $369 17.440%Engine Friction Reduction by 15% I4 15 79% $409 18 751%VVT (Intake plus Exhaust) DOHC V8 15.89 694 29.41 1758 29.28 1741

VVL Discrete OHC-4v V6 15.89 694 29.52 1769 29.39 1752VVLT Intake Continuous DOHC V6 15.89 694 29.58 1772 29.45 1755Continuously Variable Transmissions (Engines > 2.8L) 15.89 694 30.07 1896 29.95 1879Turbocharging & GDI with Engine Downsize V8 to V6 15.89 694 32.53 1933 29.95 18794/5 Valves V6 15.89 694 32.53 1933 30.04 1890VVL Discrete OHC-4v V8 18.61 950 34.71 2190 32.30 2146VVLT Intake Continuous DOHC V8 20.00 1089 35.83 2329 33.46 2285Cylinder Deactivation V6 with Noise Cancellation & Cont. VVLT 20.10 1104 35.91 2344 33.54 2300Cylinder Deactivation V8 & Cont. VVLT 20.10 1104 37.43 2553 35.12 2509Camless Valve Actuation V6 Incl. Cyl Deact. 20.10 1104 37.43 2553 35.24 2514Camless Valve Actuation V8 Incl. Cyl Deact. 20.10 1104 37.43 2553 37.64 2590Engine Off at Idle (Auto. Transmission & AC) 20.10 1104 40.11 2901 40.31 2939Weight Reduction by 15% 20.10 1104 40.11 2901 41.92 3596

Engine Friction Reduction by 15% I4 15.79% $409 18.751%DOHC VVT (Intake) I4 16.70% $447 20.048%VVT (Intake plus Exhaust) DOHC I4 17.25% $467 20.846%Engine Friction Reduction by 8% V6 17.55% $479 21.286%Alternator Improvements 17.96% $496 21.892%VVL Discrete OHV-2v V6 18.63% $528 22.895%Stoichiometric GDI V6 19.39% $565 24.054%g y

Electric Water Pump 20.10 1104 40.41 2951 42.21 3646Homogeneous Combustion Compression Ignition (HCCI) I4 20.10 1104 40.41 2951 42.21 3646Homogeneous Combustion Compression Ignition (HCCI) V6 20.10 1104 40.41 2951 42.30 3772

$VVL Discrete OHV-4v I4 21.42% $676 27.259%

Page 17: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Centerclimatechange.transportation.org/pdf/webinars/webinar_6_vehicles... · Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center ... Short

Cost-Effective TechnologiesREAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Cost Effective Technologies

• When ranked by cost‐• When ranked by cost‐effectiveness (with engineering constraints) the points fit a quadratic total cost curve. Fuel Economy Increase Cost Curve

S ll C D ti St d d (EEA 2006)quadratic total cost curve.

• The EPA and DOT do not use cost curves, per se, but computer models (Volpe, 

Small Car Domestic Standard (EEA, 2006)

$3,000$3,500$4,000$4,500

(200

5 $U

S) EEA DataPredictedNAS CompactNAS S b tcomputer models (Volpe,

OMEGA) with algorithms that treat each make and model of vehicle individually. $500

$1,000$1,500$2,000$2,500

crea

se in

RPE

( NAS Subcompact

• In the future, there will be greater reliance on full vehicle simulation modeling to account 

$0$500

0% 20% 40% 60%

Percent MPG Increase

In

for synergies.

Page 18: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Centerclimatechange.transportation.org/pdf/webinars/webinar_6_vehicles... · Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center ... Short

The Potential of Proven TechnologiesREAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

The Potential of Proven Technologies

Proven technologies can reduce gasoline vehicles’ GHGProven technologies can reduce gasoline vehicles  GHG emissions up to 30% by 2016 (+40% fuel economy).• Engine:

– Gasoline direct injection

– Turbocharging

– Cam phasing, variable valve liftCam phasing, variable valve lift

– Downsizing w/o performance reduction

• Dual clutch (automated manual) transmission

• Electric power steering & accessories• Electric power steering & accessories

• Stop‐start or Integrated Starter Generator

• Drag, Mass and Rolling Resistance reductions

Page 19: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Centerclimatechange.transportation.org/pdf/webinars/webinar_6_vehicles... · Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center ... Short

Can on-road fuel economy performance be i d?

REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

improved?

The “old” (preThe  old  (pre 2008) EPA ratings were nearly unbiasednearly unbiased but highly inaccurate predictors of on‐road fuel economy for conventional vehicles.(not true for hybrids).

Page 20: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Centerclimatechange.transportation.org/pdf/webinars/webinar_6_vehicles... · Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center ... Short

Predicted vs Actual Fuel EconomyREAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Predicted vs Actual Fuel Economy

Historically when O R d Li ht d t V hi l MPG d CAFE V i blHistorically, when gas prices are high, consumers beat 

On-Road Light-duty Vehicle MPG and CAFE Variables

22

24CAFE CARFHWA CARCAFE LDV

the fuel economy predicted by EPA’s numbers.

18

20pe

r Gal

lon

CAFE LDVFHWA LDVCAFE LTFHWA LT

12

14

16

Mile

s p

10

12

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Page 21: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Centerclimatechange.transportation.org/pdf/webinars/webinar_6_vehicles... · Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center ... Short

Tips to safely maximize on-road fuel k

REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

economy are known. Can they become widely adopted and sustained?

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Potential to Improve Fuel Economy by 2030REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Potential to Improve Fuel Economy by 2030

A 2007 MIT Potential for Advanced Technologies to Increase Fuel Economy by 2030A 2007 MIT study predicts MPG gains of 80‐85% for

Potential for Advanced Technologies to Increase Fuel Economy by 2030

90.886.0

80

90

100

Camry 2.5L80 85% for model year 2030 vehicles via continuous 

49.9

58.2 56.8

42.1

51.546.4

40 6

58.6

50

60

70

mbi

ned

MPG

Camry 3.0F-150 Pick-up

improvement of conventional technology at a 

31.225.5

42.1

20.4

32.0

40.6 37.9

20

30

40

EPA

Com

rate of  2‐2.5%/year. 0

10

2005 Base 2030 Adv. 2030 Diesel 2030 Turbo SI 2030 Hybrid

Source: Kasseris & Heywood SAE Technical Paper 2007 01 1605 April 2007Source: Kasseris & Heywood, SAE Technical Paper 2007-01-1605, April, 2007.

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Efficiency Improvement Alone Will Probably t b E h

REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

not be Enough.

Battery Electric

PHEV30 / Fuel CellToday’sTechnology

Advanced ICEsAdvanced Hybrid

PHEV30 / Fuel Cell

Advanced ICEs

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EPA’s Renewable Fuels StandardsREAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

EPAs Renewable Fuels Standards

EPA’sEPAs Renewable Fuels Standards call for 21 billion gallons ofgallons of advanced (-50%) biofuels and 16 billion gallons of gcellulosic biofuel (-60%) by 2022 but the advanced fuels are alreadyfuels are already behind schedule.

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Transition to Non-Liquid FuelsREAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Transition to Non Liquid Fuels

To reduce Well to Wheel GHG Emissions of Advanced Vehicle TechnologiessTo reduce transportation GHG emissions by 70‐80% by 

Well-to-Wheel GHG Emissions of Advanced Vehicle Technologiess

250

300

2050, it seems that at least light‐duty vehicles will

150

200

gCO

2/km

Tank-to-WheelsWell-to-Tank

vehicles will have to transition to electricity or h d 0

50

100

g

hydrogen produced from low carbon sources.

0

2006

Base

2030

NA SI

2030

Turbo SI

2030

Diese

l20

30 H

EV20

30 PHEV10

2030

PHEV3020

30 PHEV60

2030

H2 FCV

2030

BEV

20 2 2 2 2

Source: Kromer & Heywood, 2007. Assumes H2 from natural gas, electricity is EIA 2030 mix.

Page 26: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Centerclimatechange.transportation.org/pdf/webinars/webinar_6_vehicles... · Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center ... Short

Technology and PolicyREAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Both technological advances and serious carbon policies will probably be needed 

Technology and Policy

CO2 Emissions From LDVs

2 0

to reduce GHG emissions to levels necessary to avoid dangerous climate change.

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

) CO

2

• Scenario 0 : No transition to electric or hydrogen powered vehicles. C tax of $25/tCO2.

0 6

0.8

1.0

1.2

aton

s (tr

ill k

g)

$ 2

• In Scenario 3 : full transition to hydrogen fuel cell vehicles but without a carbon policy.

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

Gig

a

Scenario0, CO2 Tax = $25/MT

Scenario3, CO2 Tax = $25/MT

Scenario3, CO2 Tax = $00/MT

• In Scenario 3 with a carbon policy, significant reduction in carbon emissions will occur and will continue to decline beyond

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050y

2030.

Page 27: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Centerclimatechange.transportation.org/pdf/webinars/webinar_6_vehicles... · Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center ... Short

Key StrategiesREAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Key Strategies

Fuel efficiency improvement followed by low carbonFuel efficiency improvement, followed by low‐carbon fuels will be the key strategies for mitigation GHG emissions from motor vehicles.emissions from motor vehicles.• 40% NEW vehicle MPG improvement by 2016

– Mostly improvements to conventional vehicles

S i d l f h b id– Some increased sales of hybrids

• Eventual 100% improvement for LDVs >50% for heavy trucks (2020?)

• Rethinking of biofuel policy necessary– Technological advances needed

– Indirect impacts must be better understood

– Optimize location, crops, conversion, end use

• Transition to electricity or hydrogen by 2050

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Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center

REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

The Role of Grid Connected VehiclesMay 26, 2010

Presented by:

STEVE MARSHALLWest Coast Corridor CoalitionWest Coast Corridor Coalition

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REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

““The electric car is likely to emerge as one of the most transformational products of the current era, as important perhaps as the personal computer and theimportant, perhaps, as the personal computer and the Internet.” ‐‐Business Week, October 19, 2009

“To reduce oil dependence, nothing would do more good more quickly than making cars that could connect g q y gto the electric grid.— David Sandalow, Assistant Secretary for Policy and International Affairs, U.S. Department of Energy

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REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

“We know that our dependence on foreign oil endangersWe know that our dependence on foreign oil endangers our security and our economy.We know that climate change poses a threat to our way g p yof life – in fact we are already beginning to see its profound and costly impact.And we know that our economic future depends on ourAnd we know that our economic future depends on our leadership in the industries of the future.”

--President Obama May 21, 2010

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Presidential Directive of May 21, 2010REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Presidential Directive of May 21, 2010

“President Obama ordered tougher fuel efficiency standardsPresident Obama ordered tougher fuel‐efficiency standards for cars and trucks, advancing the fight against climate change

Under last month’s rules, new cars must get at least 35.5 miles to a gallon of fuel by 2016. The president’s new plan would order further improvements in fuel efficiency for cars and light trucks made in 2017 and beyond and in medium andlight trucks made in 2017 and beyond, and in medium and heavy trucks made in 2014 through 2018. 

The directive orders more federal support for new vehicles like advanced electric cars, and it instructs the EPA to reduce emissions of other kinds of pollutants by motor vehicles, besides greenhouse gases.” ‐‐New York Times May 21, 2010besides greenhouse gases.   New York Times May 21, 2010

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Car Facts About ChinaREAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

• China now has the largest market for cars

Car Facts About China

• China now has the largest market for cars.• There are 9 cars for every thousand Chinese of

driving agedriving age.• There are 1,148 cars for every thousand

Americans of driving age.Americans of driving age.• China wants to be like the U.S.• To run its cars China imports most of its oil asTo run its cars China imports most of its oil, as

does the U.S.

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Pacific Coast Collaborative Action Plan on G Hi h F b 12 2010

REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Green Highways: February 12, 2010

• Build a Pacific Coast “Green Highway” with alternative fueling• Build a Pacific Coast  Green Highway  with alternative fueling stations, including electricity, along I‐5 and into Canada

• Promote public‐private partnerships

• Share standards and best practices for alternative fuels

• Collaborate on all electric and plug‐in electric hybrid vehicles

• Maximize impact of public fleets policies

• Maximize results from research and commercialization efforts

C t i t t d id i f lt ti f l t ti• Create consistent roadside signage for alternative fuel stations

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The West Coast Green HighwayREAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

The West Coast Green Highway

Imagine driving down Interstate 5 – all 1 350 miles of it fromImagine driving down Interstate 5  all 1,350 miles of it from British Columbia to Baja, California – without using a drop of gas or releasing an ounce of harmful carbon emissions. 

There's no need to imagine much longer. Soon, I‐5 will become the first U.S. interstate specifically equipped to carry electric vehicles border‐to‐border, threading Washington, Oregon and California with recharging stations spaced within the range ofCalifornia with recharging stations spaced within the range of standard electric vehicle (EV) technology.

http://www.wsdot.wa.gov/Partners/GreenHighways

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Transportation Produces 51% of Puget S d G h G E i i

REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Sound Greenhouse Gas Emissions

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All-Electric Vehicles on the WayREAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

All Electric Vehicles on the Way

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Tesla Roadster and Model SREAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Tesla Roadster and Model S

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REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Ford CEO Alan Mulally said that “over time we areFord CEO Alan Mulally said that “over time we are going to see ever‐increasing prices for energy.” On Ford’s plans, Mulally said:Ford s plans, Mulally said: 

“You’ll see more hybrids, but you will really see a lot more electric vehicles.”o e e ect c e c es

“By 2020 [Ford] expects that 10% to 25% of its globalBy 2020, [Ford] expects that 10% to 25% of its global model lineup will be composed of such models.” Wall Street Journal May 25, 2010 

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Integrating Electric Vehicle InfrastructureREAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Integrating Electric Vehicle Infrastructure

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West Coast Corridor ConferenceREAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

West Coast Corridor Conference

On September 16 17th the West Coast Corridor Coalition andOn September 16‐17th the West Coast Corridor Coalition and Stanford’s Precourt Energy Efficiency Center will sponsor a conference at Stanford’s McCaw Hall 

“Climate Policy, Innovation and Transportation: Building a Clean Green and Smart West Coast Corridor”Clean, Green and Smart West Coast Corridor”

Visit www.westcoastcorridors.org for detailsVisit www.westcoastcorridors.org for details

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Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center

REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Vehicle and Fuel Strategies in Tennessee: Biofuels, Energy Conservation and Diesel RetrofitsMay 26, 2010

Presented by:

ALAN JONESManager, Environmental Policy OfficeTennessee Department of Transportation

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Biofuels, Energy Conservation and Di l R t fit

REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Diesel Retrofits

• Biofuels are part of the solution• Biofuels are part of the solution

• Improved fuel economy (e.g., hybridl t i l i h b id l di l )electrics, plug‐in hybrids, clean diesels)

• Energy conservation ( d VMT t t ti(e.g., reduce VMT,  use transportation   alternatives, reduce idling)

• Retrofit control technologies• Retrofit control technologies

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Green Corridors

REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

• Working with EPA Region 4 and the SoutheastWorking with EPA Region 4 and the Southeast Diesel Collaborative to establish “Green Corridors” across the SoutheastCorridors  across the Southeast

• Encouraging SE states, truck stops and others to provide resources and infrastructure alongto provide resources and infrastructure along interstate corridors

Bi f l il bilit– Biofuels availability

– Truck stop electrification technology

El i hi l h i i f– Electric vehicle charging infrastructure

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Southeast Diesel CollaborativeREAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Southeast Diesel Collaborative

• A voluntary public‐private partnership workingA voluntary public private partnership working to reduce diesel emissions in eight states

Alabama Florida Georgia Kentucky Mississippi– Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina and Tennessee

• Part of EPA’s National Clean Diesel Campaign• Part of EPA s National Clean Diesel Campaign

• Goal is to improve air quality and public health – Encouraging the use of clean, renewable energy and technology

R d i di l i i f i i i– Reducing diesel emissions from existing engines 

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Interstate Corridors in the SoutheastREAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Interstate Corridors in the Southeast

The Southeast DieselThe Southeast Diesel Collaborative is one of seven regional partnershipspartnerships established by EPA.

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Tennessee’s Biofuel GreenI l d C id N t k

REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Island Corridor Network

G l t t bli h t t id t k f bli l• Goal to establish statewide network of publicly accessible B20 and E85 refueling stations (“Green Islands”) along Tennessee interstates and majorIslands ) along Tennessee interstates and major highways

H l l t bi f l t ti th 100• Help locate biofuel stations no more than 100 miles apart along major corridors

At least one E85/one B20 pump in priority counties– At least one E85/one B20 pump in priority counties– At least three E85 and three B20 pumps in urban areasareas

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Tennessee’s Biofuel GreenI l d C id N t k

REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Island Corridor Network

• Green Island infrastructure grant program beganGreen Island infrastructure grant program began fall of 2006– $1 5 million in state funds from Governor’s$1.5 million in state funds from Governor s biofuels budget; $480K in CMAQ funds

• In 2006, one E85 pump in Nashville;In 2006, one E85 pump in Nashville; several biodiesel pumps in East Tennessee

• TodayToday– 33 E85 pumps and 32 B20 pumps

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Green Island Corridor NetworkREAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Green Island Corridor Network

• Blue indicates priority counties for E85 and/or B20• Pink counties have met minimum goals

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Biofuel Green Island GrantsREAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Biofuel Green Island Grants

C titi t d i i t d• Competitive grant process administeredthrough TDOT

• TDOT pays up to 80% of total cost; grantee pays at least 20% of project cost

• Maximum funding $45,000 per pump and $90,000 per location$ , p

• Most recent competition closed April 30, 2010

• Proposals for 15 E85 pumps and 3 B20 pumps• Proposals for 15 E85 pumps and 3 B20 pumps

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Interstate Biofuel Signage for Marketing d P bli A

REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

and Public Awareness

• Visible, easily recognizable signage along interstatesVisible, easily recognizable signage along interstates• Pump image and “BIOFUEL” added to GAS blue logo signs at interstate exits with B20 and/or E85 stations

• One sign on interstate and one on exit ramp • Stations place B20 and/or E85on their logo sign

• Arrows on ramp signs direct                             motorists to station locations

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Biofuel Signs on I-75REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Biofuel Signs on I 75

M i li d iMainline and ramp signs

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State Mandates to Reduce Petroleum UseREAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

State Mandates to Reduce Petroleum Use

• Public Chapter 489 directed state agencies toPublic Chapter 489 directed state agencies to reduce or displace 20 percent of petroleum use by January 2010y y– Increasing biofuels use a major TDOT strategy

• Public Chapter 532 requires 30% of newly p q ypurchased state passenger vehicles to be energy efficient– Flexible fuel vehicles– Hybrid‐electric vehicles– At least 25 mpg

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University of Tennessee Biofuels InitiativeREAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

University of Tennessee Biofuels Initiative

• $72 million state government investment• $72 million state government investment

• Univ. of Tennessee partnership with DuPont Danisco

• Cellulosic ethanol demonstration facility in Vonore TN• Cellulosic ethanol demonstration facility in Vonore, TN began production January 2010

• Using corn cobs and then switchgrass to produceUsing corn cobs and then switchgrass to produce 250,000 gallons of ethanol each year

• UT contracts with farmers to grow switchgrass on over 7,000 acres within 50 mile radius

• Optimizing technology for planned commercial‐scale d ti f ilitproduction facility

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Truck Stop ElectrificationREAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Truck Stop Electrification

• $2 million discretionary ARRA grant from EPA in$2 million discretionary ARRA grant from EPA in 2009

• Funding to purchase and install truck stopFunding to purchase and install truck stop electrification (TSE) technology at truck stop parking spaces along interstate corridorspa g spaces a o g te state co do s

• Could add up to 150 TSE parking spaces

• Requesting proposals from truck stops and TSE• Requesting proposals from truck stops and TSE technology vendors

• Up to 100 percent ARRA funds• Up to 100 percent ARRA funds

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TDEC IdleSmart APU Rebate ProgramREAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Eli ibl t k i t 50 t

TDEC IdleSmart APU Rebate Program

• Eligible truck owners may receive up to 50 percent of the cost of purchasing and installing qualified auxiliary power units (APUs) on sleeper berthauxiliary power units (APUs) on sleeper berth trucks

• Provides APU rebates (ARRA funding) up to aProvides APU rebates (ARRA funding) up to a maximum of $4,000 per truck

• Available to Tennessee common contract andAvailable to Tennessee common, contract and private motor carriers with 30 or fewer trucks

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Electric Vehicle Recharging I f t t

REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Infrastructure

• Federal ARRA grant to establish electric vehicleFederal ARRA grant to establish electric vehicle recharging infrastructure

• Five participating statesFive participating states – California, Oregon, Washington, Arizona, Tennessee

• Tennessee Partners – ECOtality, TVA, Oak Ridge, State and Nissan

• Over 2,500 recharging units in and between g gChattanooga, Knoxville and Nashville – 1,000 home recharging units

– 1,500 at rest areas, restaurants, fuel stations and employers

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Diesel RetrofitsREAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Diesel Retrofits

• Repower heavy construction equipment• Repower heavy construction equipment

• Idling reduction and automatic stop‐start h l i f i h d l itechnologies for switchyard locomotives

• School bus retrofits

• TN DOT vehicle retrofits

• Statewide competition for retrofits and idlingStatewide competition for retrofits and idling reduction technology ($4.8 million in CMAQ funds plus 20 percent match from partner)funds plus 20 percent match from partner)

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Clear the Air TennesseeREAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Clear the Air Tennessee

• Raising public awareness essential• Raising public awareness essential• Clear the Air Tennessee – a CMAQ air quality public education campaignpublic education campaign

• Focused on driver actions to reduce emissions• Designed to encourage behavior changes (e g• Designed to encourage behavior changes (e.g., ecodriving and idling reduction)

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SIMPLE CampaignREAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

SIMPLE Campaign

www.cleartheairtn.org

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For More Information…REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

For More Information…

Al J MAlan Jones, Manager

Environmental Policy Office

Environmental Division

Tennessee Dept. of TransportationTennessee Dept. of Transportation

615 741‐6832

Al J @[email protected]

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REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

For copies of these slides and webinar recording,  go to AASHTO’s website:http://environment.transportation.org/center/products_programs/climate_change_webinars.aspx

Th t i l ill l b il bl AASHTO’ li t h b itThese materials will also be available on AASHTO’s climate change website, where you can also find more information on climate change:

http://climatechange.transportation.org/webinars/

Thank you!