INFORSE-Europe Sustainable Energy Seminar August 21-24, 2017

Nordic Folkecenter for Renewable Energy, Denmark

Transition Towards Sustainable Energy – Serbia by Nikola Perusic; August 21, 2017

CEKOR

See the Program and the Proceedings at: http://www.inforse.org/europe/seminar_17_DK.htm

a)Dr Ilija Batas Bjelić, naučni saradnik, Univerzitet u Beogradu, Elektrotehnicki fakultet, Bulevar kralja Aleksandra 73, 11120 Beograd, 011 3370 165, batas@etf.rs

b) Kalmar Zvezdan, cordinator for energy CEKOR Subotica

1. Intro

2. Overview of scenarios

3. Results• a. (BASE)• b. (OPTIMAL)• c. (CO2CAP)• d. (PRICEINC)• e. (MINRES)• f. (MINEE)

4. Literature

� Subotica is the most northern city of the Republic of Serbia� Geographic position is determined with 46º 5' 5'' N and 19º 39' 47'' E.

It borders with Hungary and with 4 local self-governments: Sombor, Bačka Topola, Senta and Kanjiža.

� Census 2011, the total population on the territory of the � City of Subotica is 140,358 citizens living in 19 settlements organized in

37 local communities� Pollution:City of Subotica has one of most polluted atmosphere in whole

Serbia especially in the winter due to individual heating and traffic� Our goal was to develope number of scenarios for development of

sustainable energy future of Subotica with aim to reduce energy poverty in City, pollution comming from heating and also to diversify sources of energy with reduction of overall price and emissions from energz sector in City

� we have based our work on the available energy ballance of city of Subotica including public consumption, supply with the heat from district heating plant in Subotica

� We have used HOMER model for simulation of the future production and also prices and emissions in different scenarios.

� We have used most recent prices for the investment costs of our scenarios� Subotica is exposed to serious demographically problems, emigration of

population and high levels of poverty� Most of houses are constructed before 1980ties thus rather inefficient� Subotica lacks detailed census of it s energy consumption � Subotica lacks detailed estimation of its Renevable Energy Sources potentials

BASE sc.

BASE sc.

OPTIMALOPTIMAL

CO2CAPCO2CAP

MINRESMINRESPRICEINCPRICEINC

MINSEEMINSEE

� BAZNI – present day status of energy sistem.

� OPTIMAL Least cost scenario.

� CO2CAP – Cap (maximal allowed) on annually GHG emissions.

� PRICEINC – prices from nacional electricity grid increased.

� MINRES decision about the level of Renevable energy sources (RES) in energy mix

� MINEE Decision about the minimal energz savings (EE) of primary energy(gas, wood, bio mas, coal)

� LCOE 0.045 c€/kWh (price of el)� 1,622,000 kWhel/dan (consumpt/day)� 592,029,696 kWhel/god (electricity

consumpt/year)� 77,014,800 kWhth/god (heat consumption per

year) � 30,501,630 M€/god (yearly spent for energy)� 551,513,088 tCO2/god (CO2 equivalent

emitted annually)

Grid Boiler0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

An

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ost

($/

yr)

Cash Flow SummaryCapitalReplacementOperatingFuelSalvage

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30-35,000,000

-30,000,000

-25,000,000

-20,000,000

-15,000,000

-10,000,000

-5,000,000

0

No

min

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ash

Flo

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$)

Cash Flows

Year Number

GridBoiler

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0

20,000

40,000

60,000

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100,000

Po

wer

(k

W)

Monthly Average Electric ProductionGrid

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Th

erm

al

(kW

)

Monthly Average Thermal ProductionBoiler

� We see cost of annually spent electricity from national grid andalso of heating from GAS boiler in district heating in Subotica

� We also see monthlz consumption of electricity and of the heat from city heating boilers

� Also we see how much subotica spends on fuel and buying from national network

� LCOE 0.043 c€/kWh (price stays same)

� 470,192,320 tCO2/god� 518,847,776 kWh/god� CHP (20MW):

� 73,181,928 kWhel/god (12%), � 65,645,424 kWhth/god (83%)

BMCHP Grid Boiler0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

An

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yr)

Cash Flow SummaryBiomass CHPGridBoiler

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30-60,000,000

-40,000,000

-20,000,000

0

20,000,000

40,000,000

No

min

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ash

Flo

w (

$)

Cash Flows

Year Number

Biomass CHPGridBoiler

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

Pow

er

(kW

)

Monthly Average Electric ProductionBiomass CHPGrid

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

The

rma

l (k

W)

Monthly Average Thermal ProductionBiomass CHPBoiler

� We see that Base scenario is no economically optimal

� In his scenario we introduce bio mas cogeneration

� We see over the period of 30 years reduction of almost 16mEUR for energy

� In same time important this scenario increases local economy and rduces significantly pollution and also increases income from electricity that is selled to the national grid.

� Investment will pay back in 8 years

Maksimalnaemisija

[tCO2/god.]

Smanjenjeemisije CO2

[%]551,513,088 0

496,361,779 10

441,210,470 20

386,059,162 30

330,907,853 40

275,756,544 50

220,605,235 60

165,453,926 70

110,302,618 80

55,151,309 90- 100

100,000,000 200,000,000 300,000,000 400,000,000 500,000,0000.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

0.09

0.10

Lev

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/kW

h)

Levelized Cost of Energy vs. Max. CO2 Emissions

Max. CO2 Emissions (kg/yr)

•Covenant of majors envisions reduction of emissions for 40%•LCOE 0.059 €/kWh (+0.014 €/kWh electricity price increased for BASE)

� We are introducing reduction of emissions according to obligations of Serbia

� Also this reduction is in line with covenant of majors for 40%

� We have accepted this number a optimal ballance between more expensive and more radical reduction scenarios and also between less ambitious scenarios that are mostly prevailing in Serbia

� Price increased in national network accorixng to demands of IMF and WB[100-118%]

� LCOE 0.087 c€/kWh (93%)� We envision RES SOLAR investment in Photo

voltaic 260M€ (200MW), share of RES 51%� City would sell annually 72,585,168 kWh/god� City will take from national grid 352,225,760

kWh/god

PV BMCHP Grid Boiler0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

An

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($/

yr)

Cash Flow SummaryPVBiomass CHPGridBoiler

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30-300,000,000

-250,000,000

-200,000,000

-150,000,000

-100,000,000

-50,000,000

0

50,000,000

No

min

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ash

Flo

w (

$)

Cash Flows

Year Number

PVBiomass CHPGridBoiler

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

Po

wer

(kW

)

Monthly Average Electric ProductionPVBiomass CHPGrid

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Ther

mal

(kW

)

Monthly Average Thermal ProductionBiomass CHPBoiler

� Prices will increase in national networks due to pressure from IFIs

� In same time we have envisioned significant increase in own production of city

� After 15 years we envision major reconstruction of PV

PV WT BMCHP Grid Boiler0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

An

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($/

yr)

Cash Flow SummaryPVWindTurbineBiomass CHPGridBoiler

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

0.09

0.10

0.11

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Levelized Cost of Energy vs. Min. Ren. Fraction

Min. Ren. Fraction (%)

•LCOE 0.043-0.108 €/kWh •51% udeo RES, LCOE 0.065 €/kWh•Prodato 33,929,068 kWh/god•Preuzeto 324,903,104 kWh/god

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

Pow

er (

kW)

Monthly Average Electric ProductionPVWindBiomass CHPGrid

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Ther

mal

(kW

)

Monthly Average Thermal ProductionBiomass CHPBoiler

� We establish minimal level of renewable sources

� We envision between 0-70% of electricity produced from RES

� This scenario provides most demaning mix, but also envisions much better situation with regards to diversification, reduction of CO2 emsiison, local jobs

� It introduces also wind, Solar and bio mas as most important part of the energz mix

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0

30,000

60,000

90,000

120,000

Po

wer

(kW

)

AC Primary LoadPV Pow erWindTurbineBiomass CHP Pow erGrid PurchasesGrid Sales

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

Po

wer

(kW

)

Thermal LoadBiomass CHP ThermalBoiler Output

� Referent :� Etael=40%, (electricity in boiler)� Etath=75% (heath in boiler)

� Technically measures on demand side: � Reducing consumption for

electricity for 10% 30 godina, � investment 3M€. � Saving: 37,785,504 €

� Technical measures on production side (change of fuel): Co generation (CHP) on bio mass � 39.2% saving in primary energy. � Financial saving: 16,566,775 €.

what value

Share of RES 0.227

Saving of primary energy

39.2 %

Primary energy for bio mas CHP

164,356 MWh/god

Electricity produced in CHP

73,182 MWh/god

Production of heatCHP

65,645 MWh/god

Energy Efficiency of CHP

44.5 %

Thermal efficidncy of CHP

39.9 %

� Beside introduction of rES in sustainable energy sistems we introduce also Energy Efficiency measures that are saving significant primary energy

� We introduce at least 0-9% of saving

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0

6

12

18

24

Ho

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of

Da

y

PV Output

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

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100,000kW

� *** (2016). PROGRAM ENERGETSKE EFIKASNOSTI GRADA SUBOTICE.

� Batas Bjelic, I. and R. M. Ciric (2014). "Optimal distributed generation planning at a local level – A review of Serbian renewable energy development." Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 39: 79-86.

� IRENA (2017). Cost-competitive renewable power generation: Potential across South East Europe.

� Lambert, T., P. Gilman, et al. (2006). Micropower System Modeling with Homer. Integration of Alternative Sources of Energy, John Wiley & Sons, Inc.: 379-418.

� Smajlović, E. (2009). HOMER SOFTVER - OPTIMIZACIJA MIKROENERGETSKIH SISTEMA SA OBNOVIVIM IZVORIMA ENERGIJE. Tuzla

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0

6

12

18

24

Ho

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Da

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WindTurbine Output

0

8,000

16,000

24,000

32,000

40,000

48,000

56,000

64,000

72,000

80,000kW

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0

6

12

18

24

Ho

ur

of

Da

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Biomass CHP Output

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000kW

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0

6

12

18

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Ho

ur

of

Da

y

Boiler Output

0

1,600

3,200

4,800

6,400

8,000

9,600

11,200

12,800

14,400

16,000kW