training on fertilizer demand forecasting patrick heffer, ifa 19 april 2013 moscow, russia
TRANSCRIPT
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TRAINING ON FERTILIZER DEMAND FORECASTING
Patrick Heffer, IFA
19 April 2013Moscow, Russia
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What Is IFA?
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IFA in Brief
Non-governmental organization representing the world fertilizer industry
About 540 members in 85 countries( including Uralkali and many other Russian fertilizer producers)
Based in Paris Organized around three standing committees:
o Technical
o Production and International Trade
o Agriculture Main activities: market analysis, issue management/
advocacy, conference organization
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IFA Agriculture Committee
Four objectives:
Address issues facing fertilizerdemand
Promote the efficient, balancedand responsible use of fertilizers
Improve the public image of fertilizers
Develop reliable and authoritative fertilizer demand forecasts
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Reports on demand forecasts twice a year
Annual Conference (May/June)medium-term (5-year) forecasts
Enlarged Council Meeting (Nov/Dec)short-term (1-year) forecasts
Improving the forecasts
Develop network of correspondents
Guidelines for a crop-based approach
Regional training programmes
IFA Agriculture Committee
Develop reliable and authoritative fertilizer demand forecasts
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IFA’s Fertilizer Demand Forecasts
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Current strategy
Rely on information provided by a network of correspondents in ~50 countries
Heterogeneous inputsessentially due to different methodologies used depending on the countries Trend forecasts Government objectives Recommended application rates Econometric model (e.g. India, Brazil) Crop-based / expert-based model (e.g. EU, USA)
Methodology and Information Used by IFA
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Correspondents are not enough
Use additional sources of info (reports, articles…) on: Economic context, weather,
policy factors Global agricultural situation
Check consistency between national forecasts and the global scenario
Forecasts provided by the correspondents are revised in more than half of the countries !They are almost always revised down.
And checks are needed
Fertilizer demand forecastsare cross-checked with forecastson the supply side
To ensure consistency between the two sets
To issue forecasts on the supply/demand balances
Methodology and Information Used by IFA
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National forecasts are the starting point: They provide
the foundation for developing regional and global forecasts
High margin of error
Mostly over-estimation
Small margin of error
Balanced fluctuationsaround actual demand
Objective
Importance of Good National Forecasts
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Objective - Improve national forecasts, which should resultin turn in better regional and global projections
Developed guidelines for a crop-based, expert-based forecast
On-the-ground training programmes
IFA Training Programme on Fertilizer Demand Forecasts
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Crop-Based, Expert-Based Forecast
Why Is It the Preferred Methodology?
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What is a Good Forecast?
….. the most likely scenario
Independent from: Commercial pressures Governmental objectives Fertilizer recommendations
As realistic as possible Not too optimistic over-investments Not too pessimistic would endanger food
security Often more conservative than governmental targets
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Types of Forecast Methodologies
Trend analysis
Growth rate models
Production/trade models
Econometric models
Crop-based, expert-based models
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Why Does IFA Recommend Using a Crop-Based, Expert-Based Approach? Can be used on a consistent basis across all the
countries and regions
Yields much more accurate forecasts than the trend analysis, growth rate models and production/trade models
Does not require large databases and knowledge in econometrics as econometric models. Also, more accurate than econometric models
Explains where changes in demand are anticipated to come from
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The Four Stages of
a Crop-Based, Expert-Based Forecast
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The Four StagesThe Four Stages
Our Goal: “To Arrive at a Realistic, Objective, and Defensible Forecast”
Main Steps:
I. Create a Historical Database or ‘Base Year’
II. Develop a Qualitative Scenario: Outlook Conditions
III. Prepare the Quantitative Forecast
IV. Validate the Forecast
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I. The Historical Database Overview
Consists of Data for 3 Forecast Components:
1. Area Planted to Major Crops
2. Percent of Planted Area Fertilized by Nutrient and Crop Type
3. Average Application Rates of Nutrients by Crop Type
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I. The Historical DatabaseData Collection
1. Area Planted to Major Crops
Identify the Major Nutrient Consuming Crops
Develop a Database:
• Major Crops
• Other Crops
Potential Problems
• Only Harvested Area Data is Available
• Data Only Available for Some/Few Crops
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U.S. Nutrient Use by Crop, FY2004/05
44
17
2
5
41
1614
5
43
5
19
6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Corn
Wheat
Soybeans
Cotton
Corn
Wheat
Soybeans
Cotton
Corn
Wheat
Soybeans
Cotton
percent NITROGEN POTASHPHOSPHATE
Nutrient Use – Major U.S. Crops
68% 76% 73%
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1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
Corn Wheat Soybeans Cotton
Th
ou
san
d A
cres
Acres Planted – Major U.S. Crops
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Share of Total Fertilizer Consumption by Crop Type in 2010 in Russia
wheat+ barley+ maize + sunflower + sugar beet= 75-80%
Source: IFA
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I. The Historical Database Data Collection
2. Percent of Planted Area Fertilized• Identify Area Fertilized for Each Major Crop• Express as Percent of Planted Area
3. Average Application Rates• Determine Amount of Each Nutrient Applied to
Crop• Express in kg/ha
Potential Problems• Only Some Data Exists
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Percent of Corn Acres Treated by Nutrient
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
19
64
19
66
19
68
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
Pe
rce
nt
N P2O5 K2O
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Application Rate per Treated Corn Acre
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1401
96
4
19
66
19
68
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
lbs.
pe
r tr
ea
ted
acre
N P2O5 K2O
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Average Nutrient Application Rate - Corn
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1401
96
4
19
66
19
68
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
lbs.
pe
r a
cre
N P2O5 K2O
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II. The Qualitative Scenario
“What Will the Future Look Like?”
Develop Assumptions About Conditions That Will Impact Crop Acreage and Nutrient Application
Consider• Domestic and World Economies• Crop Market Conditions• Fertilizer Market Conditions• The Regulatory Environment• Infrastructure Investments or Limitations
Avoid• Government/Industry Targets
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III. The Quantitative ForecastApplying Your Qualitative Conditions
“For Each Crop, Consider Impact of Stage II Assumptions on Each Forecast Component”:
Area Planted
Impacted by:• Crop Prices • Weather • Government Policies • Changes to Demand• Infrastructure
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“For Each Crop, Consider Impact of Stage II Assumptions on Each Forecast Component”:
Percent of Area Fertilized and Application Rates
Impacted by:• Crop Prices and Yields• Fertilizer Prices and Availability• Soil Type, Moisture, and Weather• Policy Changes
III. The Quantitative ForecastApplying Your Qualitative Conditions
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IV. Forecast Validation
Recall Our Goal: “To Arrive at a Realistic, Objective, and Defensible Forecast”
The Final Step: Verify That the Forecast Meets These Criteria 1. Cross Check Results2. Seek Out Supporting Data3. Compare to Other Methodologies
• Trend Forecast• Econometric Model if Available
Once Comfortable With the Forecast, Explain Results
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Concluding Remarks
Maintaining Your Forecast1. Update Your Stage II Assumptions Regularly2. Anticipate/Explain Structural Changes
• Historical Data• Forecast
3. Compare Results With Others4. Rely On and Trust Your Own Expertise
Your Forecast Will Improve Over Time• Progressive Increase of Crop Coverage• Progressive Improvement of Data Quality
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Crop-Based, Expert-Based Forecast in Summary
Our goal: “to arrive at a realistic, objective, and defensible forecast”
Main steps:
I. Create a historical databaseor ‘base year’
II. Develop a qualitative scenario:outlook conditions
III. Prepare the quantitative forecast
IV. Validate the forecast
3 variables
1. Area planted to major crops
2. Percent of planted area fertilized by nutrient and crop type
3. Average application rates of nutrients by crop type
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Outlook for World and Regional Fertilizer Demand
Note regarding data presented:Short-term outlook of December 2012Medium-term Outlook of June 2012
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World Cereal Productionand Utilization (Mt)
Source: FAO
Balance forecast at the end of the 2012/13 campaign:
FAO: -30 Mt
USDA: -45 Mt
IGC: -45 Mt
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World Cereal Stock-to-Use Ratio
Source: FAO
Anticipated ending stock evolution in 2012/13:
Wheat: -23 Mt (-12%) Lowest S/U ratio since 2007/08;
2nd lowest since 1980 Major exporters stock-to-
disappearance: 13.9%
Coarse grains: -13 Mt (-8%) Lowest S/U ratio since 1980 Major exporters stock-to-
disappearance: 8.9%; below 6% in the US
Rice: Increase for 6th consecutive year
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Relative Evolution of Agricultural Commodity Prices
Sources: Financial Times and IMF
Relative Price Evolution from January 2006 to October 2012
Rice
Rice Maize
Maize
SoybeanSoybean
Wheat
Wheat
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Global Fertilizer DemandShort-term Forecasts (Mt nutrients)
Source: IFA Agriculture
Reminder on reference years:~1/2 of the world market: January X December X~1/6 of the world market: April X March X+1~2/6 of the world market: July X June X+1
Change
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14
N +3.0% +1.5% +1.5%
P2O5 +1.2% -2.7% +3.5%
K2O +2.1% +0.1% +4.5%
Total +2.4% +0.3% +2.4%
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Global Fertilizer DemandShort-term Forecasts (Mt nutrients)
Source: IFA Agriculture
N
P205
K20
3,159.0
469.0
572.0
1,640.0
-1,094.0
33.0
1,614.0
1,411.0
1,278.0
Variation in 2011/12 Variation in 2012/13 Variation in 2013/14
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Source: IFA Agriculture
Regional N Fertilizer Demand Short-term Forecast (Mt N)
Oceania
West Asia
Africa
E. Eur. & C. Asia
W. & C. Europe
Lat. Am. & Carib.
North America
South Asia
East Asia
-1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000
Variation in 2011/12Variation in 2012/13Variation in 2013/14
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Source: IFA Agriculture
Regional P Fertilizer Demand Short-term Forecast (Mt P2O5)
Oceania
West Asia
Africa
E. Eur. & C. Asia
W. & C. Europe
Lat. Am. & Carib.
North America
South Asia
East Asia
Variation in 2011/12Variation in 2012/13Variation in 2013/14
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Source: IFA Agriculture
Regional K Fertilizer DemandShort-term Forecast (Mt K2O)
Oceania
West Asia
Africa
E. Eur. & C. Asia
W. & C. Europe
Lat. Am. & Carib.
North America
South Asia
East Asia
-1,500.0 -1,000.0 -500.0 0.0 500.0 1,000.0 1,500.0
Variation in 2011/12Variation in 2012/13Variation in 2013/14
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Source: IFA Agriculture
2013/14 vs. 2007/08 (Mt nutrients)
OceaniaWest Asia
AfricaE. Eur. & C. Asia
W. & C. EuropeLat. Am. & Carib.
North AmericaSouth Asia
East Asia
K2OP2O5
N
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
49% of global net increase
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Medium-Term Outlook for Agricultural Commodity Prices
World Nominal Prices (US$/t)
Source: OECD-FAO
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Global Fertilizer DemandMedium-term Outlook (Mt nutrients)
Source: IFA Agriculture
Average Annual Change
Base Year 2016/17
N +1.5% p.a.
P2O5 +2.3% p.a.
K2O +3.7% p.a.
Total +2.1% p.a.
Base year
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Regional Fertilizer ConsumptionMedium-term Outlook (Mt nutrients)
Source: IFA Agriculture
Oceania
West Asia
W. & C. Europe
North America
East Asia
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000
Av. 2009/10 to 2011/12Variation in 2016/17
30%
21%
24%
6%
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for more information:
www.fertilizer.org