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September 23, 2014

Dislocation, Dislocation, Dislocation

The debate over Germany's insistence

euro-zone austerity has flared anew as

ailing France continues to dema

economic stimulus. The European Cent

Bank may now be siding with Par

leaving Merkel looking increasingly alon

IMF Chief Sees Slower Global GrowthThe global economic growth is likely to be slightly above 3

percent this year in the face of geopolitical risks, International

Monetary Fund Chief Christine Lagarde said in an interview with

the French daily Les Echos. The growth is likely to be between 3

and 3.5 percent, she said. Growth is uneven as some countries

started growing faster than others. The IMF is set to release its

next World Economic Outlook in October. Earlier the

Washington-based lender estimated 3.4 percent global growth for

this year. Lagarde noted that geopolitical crisis in Ukraine is

likely to impact Germany and other neighboring nations.

Lagarde said France should stick to its deficit reduction measures

despite low inflation. She also urged Germany to support public

spending on infrastructure which would also help its neighboring

nations.

U.K. financial markets tumble on fear of Scotland splittin

The practice of using debt to repurchase shares has

become so widespread and aggressive no wonder,since executive compensation is often tied to stock

price and earnings per share metrics that benefit from

reduced share counts that it is believed to be limiting

actual physical investment in plants and equipment.

The world is facing a global jobs crisis

that is hurting the chances of reigniting economicgrowth and there is no magic bullet to solve the

problem, the World Bank warned In a study

released at a G20 Labour and Employment

Ministerial Meeting in Australia, the Bank said an

extra 600 million jobs needed to be created

worldwide by 2030 just to cope with the

expanding population. "And equally disturbingly,

we're also seeing wage and income inequality

widening within many G20 countries, although

progress has been made in a few emerging

economies, like Brazil and South Africa."

A below-par recovery in the U.S. and the continued fragility of theeuro zone means that risk assets are "mispriced", the Organization

for Economic Cooperation and Development has warned. In itsInterim Economic Assessment last week, the Paris-based research

body became the latest body to suggest markets are at risk of asudden correction, stressing that the current bullishness appeared "atodds" with the "intensification of several significant risks. TheOECD forecast the U.S. would grow by 2.1 percent this year, downfrom its May projection of 2.6 percent growth. For 2015, the groupexpects the U.S. economy to grow 3.1 percent, down from earlierestimates of 3.5 percent. The euro area has also been downgradedfrom 1.2 percent growth in May to 0.8 percent and 1.1 percent fornext year and the stubbornly slow growth in the region is the most"worrying feature" of the OECD's projections.

Free-market era in Sweden swept awayas feminists and greens plot new path

Investorspull17bnfromUKasbanksratchetupScottishindependencepressureNet flows out of Britain hi t $27.3bn (16.8bn) in August, the highest seen since the financial crisis

RBS and Lloyds Banking Group warn of possible relocation

to London, if Scottish voters back breakaway from the UK

Fears of higher U.S. interest rates areprompting fund managers to cut back on

investments in emerging markets. For now,

investors still are moving into developing

markets, though the pace has moderated.

Emerging-market stocks and bonds received $9

billion from investors in August, compared

with an average $38 billion a month between

May and July, according to the latest data from

the Institute of International Finance. But

after months of heavy buying in such places as

Brazil and India, lured by the prospect of

higher returns than in the Western world,

investors are taking a more cautious stance.

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The Likelihood of Unlikely EventsA reescalation of the Ukraine crisis could pose risks to the global economyDirect spillovers from the conflict in Ukraine are mainly regional, reflecting the fact that Russia

accounts for more than 10% of total exports from Belarus and most countries in the Baltics, the

Caucasus and Central Asia, and remittances from Russia account for more than 10% of GDP for

Armenia, Moldova, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyz Republic. However, wider spillovers could emergefrom increased risk aversion in global financial markets or major disruptions in production or

transportation of oil and natural gas . Although existing sanctions have had only limited effects in a

few sectors, a shutdown of gas supplies especially could disrupt production in Western Europe,

which depends on Russia for nearly 30% of its natural gas supplies.

Global cyber spacePotentially the most important development in the finalquarter of 2014 will be the International Telecommunication

Union (ITU)'s Plenipotentiary Conference in Busan, SouthKorea from October 20 to November 7. The ITUConference will see further disagreement about the futureshape of internet governance between mainly Westerngovernments on one side and most emerging anddeveloping countries on the other. Meanwhile, the EU andthe United States are making greater efforts to address thetransnational challenge of cyber security.

Wallet Mobile PaymentsOne of the competitors in the Great Mobile Payments Race is changing itsname. Isis Wallet, a mobile payments joint venture of AT&T, Verizon, and T Mobile is changing its name to Softcard for fairly obvious reasons. Isis Walletoperates by having the consumer store his/her payment card information ona "secure element"tech speak for a tamper resistant chip that safely storesencrypted information. (The particular secure element for Isis Wallet

depends on the phone model.) That payment information is thencommunicated with merchants using NFC (near field communications, i.e.,contactless). Isis Wallet also integrates various loyalty programs andmerchant offers (including some that are proximity based). As Apple's ApplePay platform shows, mobile payments is becoming a crowded field withsome real heavyweights. Yet, as I'll blog shortly, there are some realchallenges ahead for anyone in the field.

BIS: The vulnerabilities are in the bondmarkets; the issuance of foreign-currencydebt by emerging market companies continuedto pose a threat to the global financialsystem. The BIS statistics showed manycompanies were issuing debt through overseasaffiliates, meaning official national statisticswere vastly underestimating the scale of the

trend. The BIS warned that the maturity ofbonds issued in foreign currency hadlengthened, raising the risk of a mass sell-offby investors. To the extent that investorreactions amplify market disruptions, longermaturities may introduce new vulnerabilitieswith the potential to affect the availabilityand cost of finance, the BIS said.

China Industrial Production

Growth Slumps to Six-Year LowChina's Industrial Production Growth Slowed to

Lowest Level Since 2008 Global Financial Crisis

The Centre for European Economic

Research (ZEW) economic sentiment

index for Germany fell to 6.9 in

September from 8.6 in August amid

concerns that rising geopoliticaltensions are hurting the European

economy.

German investor confidence dropped tothe weakest in 21 months amid

increasing political tension in Europe,

even as the European Central Bank

steps up its stimulus.

The global economy faces a growing risk from big financial market bets that couldquickly unravel if investors get spooked by geopolitical tensions or a shift in U.S.interest rate policy, the International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday. TheIMF, an institution based in Washington that is the world's premier watchdog forfinancial and economic stability, said in a report it still expects economic growthwill pick up in the second half of 2014 after a rough start to the year. But it alsowarned that financial market indicators suggested investor bets funded with

borrowed money looked "excessive" and that markets could quickly deflate ifthere were surprises in U.S. monetary policy or the conflicts in Ukraine and theMiddle East.

Underfunding may threaten

global 'superbug' defenses

It has been reported that rapid sequencipathogen genomes could help combat the spof 'superbugs'. Superbugs are microbes have become resistant to modern treatmTheir spread could deal a major blow to hachievements globally, which would sercompromise development across all secResistant microbes do not respect borderendering regulation in one country, institor subpopulation insufficient to curb spread. Without effective antimicropandemics could be more frequent widespread. Even the most developed counare vulnerable. The human capital implicamay be dramatic and have notable consequfor both economic and human development.

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September 23, 2014

Engines of Growth

Eurozone investor confidence deteriorated

to the lowest level since July 2013 despitethe new measures taken by the the

European Central Bank, survey figures fromthethinktank Sentix showed

The HSBC Emerging Markets Index (EMI), a monthlyindicator derived from the PMI surveys, rose to a

17- month high of 52.5 in August, from 51.7 in July.That signaled stronger growth of output acrossglobal emerging markets The EMI remained belowits long-run average of 53.8 (since late-2005),however.

Weak output growth continued in Indiaand Russia, while Brazil contracted.

The U.S. budget deficit narrowed 22 percent in the first 11

months of the fiscal year as accelerating economic growth

boosted tax receipts, Treasury Department figures showed.

Canada Finance minister to announce

new tax credit for small businesses

The debate over Germany's insistence

on euro-zone austerity has flared

anew as an ailing France continues todemand economic stimulus. The

European Central Bank may now be

siding with Paris, leaving Merkel

looking increasingly alone

US healthcare expenditures may rise againAfter rising steadily for 50 years, total US expenditureson healthcare are increasing at historically low rates.Healthcare expenses are a major component of spendingby households, businesses and government. A sustainedslowdown in healthcare costs could improve the federaldeficit and might boost economic growth by shiftinghousehold spending to more economically beneficialcategories. However, a return to historic growth ratescould create inflation pressure, crowd out other publicand private spending and swell the federal deficit.

US oil production surged last week to 8.84 million

barrels per day, the highest level since March of 1986,

more than 28 years ago. At the current pace of increases,daily US oil production should top 9 million barrels

within the next few months, a level of crude oil output

the US hasnt experienced since 1973.

Chinas house prices fell for the fourth-consecutivemonth in August, intensifying the concern that the economymay be slowing further. Average new home prices across Chinafell 1.1% (m/m) in August, accelerating from last months 0.9%fall, according to a Reuters weighted home price indexcalculated from official figures. The price fall was spread to arecord number of cities (68 out of 70 cities), including majorcities like Shanghai and Shenzhen (-1.1% each) and Beijing (-0.9%). The property market accounts for roughly 15% of theeconomy.

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September 23, 2014

Households Brave New World

U.S. Consumer Credit Climbs More Than Expected In JulyReflecting increases in both revolving and non-revolving credit, the

Federal Reserve released a report on Monday showing that U.S.

consumer credit increased by much more than expected in the month of

July. The Fed said consumer credit jumped by $26.0 billion in July after

climbing by an upwardly revised $18.8 billion in June. Economists hadbeen expecting consumer credit to rise by about $17.3 billion, matching

the increase originally reported for the previous month. The bigger than

expected increase was partly due to continued growth in non-revolving

credit such as student loans and car loans, which increased by $20.6

billion in July after rising by $17 billion in June. Revolving credit,

which largely reflects credit card debt, also rose by $5.3 billion in July

after edging up by $1.8 billion in the previous month.

The U.S. consumer-finance regulator is preparing to launch in-depth reviews of about 40 l

auto lenders to determine whether the firms are following federal consumer-protection l

according to people familiar with the matter. The Consumer Financial Protection Burea

expected on Thursday to propose supervising the largest nonbank auto lenders, an initial

that is expected to lead to examinations of such firms as early as next year. The CFPB's e

comes amid growing concern about car-lending practices, including whether consumers

being steered into loans they can't afford and sold pricey add-on products whose total costs

not be clearly disclosed. Last year, auto lenders made roughly $78 billion in loans to subpr

borrowers, those with weak credit, up from nearly $43 billion in 2009. That figure was still

below levels seen before the 2008 financial crisis, according to the New York Fed.

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September 23, 2014

The Return to Normal ?

Fed Sizes Up Alternate Rate-Hike PathsCentral Bank Debates How Soon, and How Quickly, It Should Start Tightening

Federal Reserve Creates Financial Stability Committee

Committee Will Be Led by Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer

Central banks inflating 'elevated' asset prices: BISFinancial asset prices are at "elevated" levels and market volatilityremains "exceptionally subdued" thanks to ultra-loose monetarypolicies being implemented by central banks around the world, theBank for International Settlements said on Sunday. In itsquarterly review, the BIS said financial market volatility spikedhigher in August on the back of geopolitical concerns and worriesover economic growth, but quickly returned to "exceptional lows"across most asset classes. "By fostering risk-taking and the searchfor yield, accommodative monetary policies thus continued tocontribute to an environment of elevated asset price valuations

and exceptionally subdued volatility," the BIS said.

There were several references in the report to the

"extraordinarily" and "exceptionally" low levels of volatility,suggesting the BIS feels markets may be getting too

complacent and therefore vulnerable and therefore illequipped to a shock.

U.S. housing starts / permits weak; prior month's data revised higher

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September 23, 2014

You Cant Handle the TruthLet'sTaketheConoutofEconomics

Canada s housing party plays

on as world warns of risk

Experts ranging from Fitch Ratings and

Morningstar to the International

Monetary Fund and economist Paul

Krugman have warned about the risks ofthe housing boom in Canada, where the

average home price has doubled in 11

years. They point to record high

household debt, cheap mortgages, and

overbuilding as harbingers of the kind of

doom seen in the U.S. housing collapse

five years ago. A house price correction

may be inevitable in the next five years

that could send values tumbling by as

much as 30 percent.

Substantial growth in U.S. short-term business debt balancesover the summer months has driven levels to new recordheights, as low interest rates and looser lending standardsencourage borrowers to expand their near-term leveragetolerances, analysts say.As a broad proxy for short-term business debt, the latest sumof U.S. non-financial commercial paper (CP) and commercialand industrial (C&I) loans reached an all-time high of $1.984trillion this month, according to seasonally adjusted datareported by the Federal Reserve. That level represents year-to-year growth of roughly $250 billion, or more than 14%,including a nearly 12% rise in C&I amounts outstanding (arecord-high $1.75 trillion as of the start of this month) and aneye-catching 50% increase in domestic CP balances ($235.4

billion as of Wednesday, or a high dating to February 2001).For reference, the CP/C&I sum hit a post-crisis low of $1.3trillion in 2010, after a precipitous drop from $1.77 trillion in theimmediate aftermath of the Lehman Brothers' collapse sixyears ago. The latest sum represents growth of nearly 53%from that nadir.

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September 23, 2014

Credit Matters-Know RiskMany Excel in Strategy, Few in the Management of Risk

Fed to Hit Banks With

Tougher SurchargeThe Federal Reserve is preparing

to hit the biggest U.S. banks with

a tougher version of a capital

surcharge than agreed to by

international regulators.

After default, Argentina economy falling into deeper hArgentina's government is ramping up state intervention in th

economy to try to prevent a new debt default from triggering a

balance of payments crisis but its polic ies are also battering

business confidence and may deepen a recession.

Chinese Bank Lending Surges in August

But Money Growth is SlowerChinese bank lending surged in August after decliningsharply a month ago, while money supply growth slowed

from last year, data published by the People's Bank of China

showed Friday. Banks lent CNY 702.5 billion in August

which was much larger than July's CNY 385.2 billion

lending. Social aggregate financing, a broad measure o

credit, totaled CNY 957.4 billion in August, versus CNY

273.1 billion a month ago. Nonetheless, it remained above

the expected level of CNY 1.13 trillion. The broad measure

of money supply, M2, grew 12.8 percent year-on-year in

August, while economists expected the annual rate to remain

unchanged at 13.5 percent. The narrow measure M1 climbed

5.7 percent, slower than expectations of 6.8 percent.

BIS: Banks have started to lend more abroad for the first time

in nearly three years, in a sign that confidence in the sector isrecovering after years of uncertainty.The increase in cross-border lending was spread across countries and sectors, though a

more significant rise occurred in China, the worlds second-largest economy, where

borrowers have borrowed more than $1tn from foreign banks. In the eurozone, cross-

border interbank lending went up for the first time since early 2012, indicating foreign

peers are beginning to trust their counterparts in the single currency area once again.

For all these improvements, the big picture remains one of retrenchment: the latest rise

was not enough to offset the sharp pace of cutbacks in recent years. But the quarterly

increase was enough to slice in half the annual rate of contraction.

Regulator Demands Bank to Address

Problems With Leveraged LendingCredit Suisse Group is under fire from U.S.regulators over concerns the bank isn'theeding warnings to stop making loansregulators see as risky, according to a person

familiar with the matter. The Swiss bank inrecent weeks received a letter from theFederal Reserve demanding the bankimmediately address problems with itsunderwriting and sale of leveraged loans, orhigh-interest-rate loans used by private-equity firms and others to finance purchasesof companies, among other uses.

A year later, most mega

IPOs are mega laggards

Declining Cigarette Shipments Will Continue toHarm Performance of Tobacco Settlement ABS

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September 23, 2014

Credit II

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September 23, 2014

Pumping Iron

The Old Economy RevisitedRising exports and falling imports pushed China's trade

surplus to a new record, but the outlook is downbeat. Global aluminium market's oversupply woes will persistDemand for aluminium remains strong, but the expansion of Chinese output haskept the market in surplus since 2007, pushing inventories up. Consequently, the

total profits of the industry's five largest producers fell from 9.4 billion dollars in

2009 to 2.4 billion in 2013. Attempts to reverse the oversupply problem have

been largely ineffective, despite capacity cuts by leading producers: Rusal

reduced its output by 216,000 tonnes in 2013, while Alcoa cut 190,000 tonnes of

annual capacity by closing its Australian Point Henry smelter and announced the

closure of its Portovesme smelter in Sardinia. The largest non-Chinese

producers have also adopted various diversification strategies, with Rio Tinto

investigating the prospects for mining bauxite and Alcoa venturing into the

manufacturing space to produce automotive and aircraft parts.

Car parts makers look to build scale amid

technological shifts in the global auto industryZF Friedrichshafen has agreed to acquire US rival TRW

Automotive in a $11.7bn deal, as the German car parts

supplier looks to build global scale and secure access to

technology for self-driving vehicles. Both companies

boards have approved the transaction, which would create

the worlds second largest car component maker by revenue,

with about 30bn ($41bn) in annual sales and 138,000employees. TRW shareholders and regulators must first

approve the deal, which was unveiled on Monday.

Siemens, the German engineering conglomerate, announced lateSunday a deal for the DresserRand Group, an oil products andservices company. The deal, worth about $7.6 billion, including theassumption of debt, gives Siemens prominence in the Americanenergy sector, which is booming as new reserves of oil andnatural gas are tapped through unconventional drillingtechniques.

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September 23, 2014

Go Figure

Select Data Considerations

Microsoft agreed on

Monday to buy the

creator of Minecraft, the

world-building compute

game, for $2.5 billion, in

a move meant to add the

immensely popular title

to its stock of content.

A 7.0% decline last month in automotive products production (+y/y) reversed a 7.6% July increase. Appliances, furniture & carpproduction fell 2.5% (+7.0% y/y) following strong increases in thefive months. Working the other way was computers & electoutput. It gained 2.4% (+5.6% y/y) and reversed a 2.3% July deBusiness equipment production was unchanged (5.8% y/y) last mA 1.0% increase (1.7% y/y) in information processing equipmenoffset by a 2.3% decline (+7.2% y/y) in transit equipment (+7.2%Amongst consumer soft-goods industries, output improved 0.3% (y/y) after a 0.4% decline. Chemical production gained 0.7% (4.1%after having been unchanged and food & tobacco production g0.5% (1.8% y/y) following a 0.6% July decline. To the dowclothing output fell 2.3% (+0.3% y/y), the largest of four declines ilast five months.

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September 23, 2014

The DNA of BusinessReconfiguring Industries to Define Growth

For GE, Electrolux Deal Marks Shift From ConsumersGE's deal to sell its appliance business to Electrolux is part

of a shift driven by Jeff Immelt to focus the conglomerate

on finance and industrial equipment.

McDonald's Sales Woes Continue in August

Restaurant Chain Posts Steep Decline in Asia-Pacific Sales

Showbiz, Music Industry Jobs Drop 19% in Two Yea

The MPAAs statistics for 2012 the most recent period coveby the industry group asserted that the industry supporttotal of 1.9 million direct and indirect jobs for a total of $billion in total wages in 2012, with the direct jobs generating $billion in wages, and an average salary 43% higher than national average. There were over 293,000 jobs in the cbusiness of producing, marketing, manufacturing, and distributmotion pictures and television shows, the MPAA said. These high quality jobs, with an average salary of $86,500, 76% higthan the average salary nationwide.The MPAA estimates that there were nearly 360,000 jobrelated businesses that distribute motion pictures and TV shoto consumers. The indirect jobs include caterers, dry cleaneflorists, hardware and lumber suppliers, and digital equipmsuppliers. This also includes jobs in other fields that do businwith consumers, such as DVD and Blu-ray retailers and employat theme parks and tourist attractions.

Regional airlines not sharing in majors success

Apple Inc's iPod upended the music industry, and its

iPhone knocked Nokia off its smartphone perch, but

Swiss watch makers breezily dismissed warnings thatthe technology giant's new wristwatch gadget could

do something similar to them. "They are essentially

transient products rather than items of enduring

value," one Swiss watch industry expert sniffed.

Trump Plaza shuts down;4th AC casino to close

Las Vegas: Visitor Traffic on pace for record

in 2014, Convention Attendance Returning

Warning on TechThe tech investing community is taking

on an excessive amount of risk, and

startups are burning through cash at an

unsustainable pace.

ZARA and RFIDApparel powerhouse Inditex parent of the Zara chain, says it has lear

from competitors' experience and is rolling out RFID techno

throughout the operations of its signature brand.The chips, about tw

the size of a standard mobile-phone SIM card, help the world's largfashion retailer keep better track of its stock and replenish its cloth

racks more quickly, said Pablo Isla, chairman and chief executive

Inditex, which reports first-half results on Wednesday. "It gives us gvisibility, knowing exactly where each garment is located," Mr. Isla s

"It really changes how we operate our stores."

Apple said that it is making it impossible for the company to turn over data

from most iPhones or iPads to police even when they have a search warrant

taking a hard new line as tech companies attempt to blunt allegations that

they have too readily participated in government efforts to collect user

information.

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September 23, 2014

Tech and the Business CycleThe conventional wisdom in Silicon Valley is that

acquisitions are about gaining great talent. Just last week,

Tim Cook told Charlie Rose that one of the main reasons

Apple bought Beats was for "incredible talent." The

Valley even has its own term for an acquisition based

solely on hiring: "acquihire.But that's not why Microsoft is spending $2.5 billion for Mojang.

The purveyor of all things Xbox is buying the Swedish developer

for the mega-hit video game Minecraft. That's it. While Mojang

says the "vast majority" of employees are expected to stick around

until after the deal closes, the three founders are leaving right

away. That includes Markus "Notch" Persson, the face of the

company.

The headline on Microsoft's press release is telling: "Minecraft tojoin Microsoft." Not Mojang. Minecraft. That's a pragmatic way

to describe the deal: Just about every kid and parent has heard of

Minecraft, which has sold more than 54 million copies,

comprising virtually all of the small studio's revenue. But

Microsoft seems to indicate that this isn't about cultivating an

eccentric group of independent-minded game designers; it's about

Minecraft.

Orange SA (ORA) offered toacquire Spanish broadbprovider Jazztel Plc (JAZ) for about 3.4 billion eu

($4.4 billion) in cash, marking the French carrbiggest takeover attempt in almost a decade.

Israel is known for its engineering prowe

but less so for spawning big, independent t

companies. That may be changing. Latest

tech companies in Israel raised $447 mill

in the second quarter, twice as much as

total financing in the previous quart

according to Tel Avivbased IVC Resea

Center. Mature startups are defined as th

with more than $10 million in annual sal

These companies received 48 percent of

capital invested in technology in the l

quarter, the highest in the 14 years IVC

tracked the industry. At the beginning

2013, just 13 percent of investments were

latestage tech companies. Isra

entrepreneurs "are growing more establis

companies, said Koby Simana, the ch

ex ecutive officer at IVC. This is

broadening of startup nation.

Internet governancePotentially the most important development in the finalquarter of 2014 will be the International

Telecommunication Union (ITU)'s PlenipotentiaryConference in Busan, South Korea from October 20 toNovember 7. The ITU Conference will see furtherdisagreement about the future shape of internetgovernance between mainly Western governments onone side and most emerging and developing countrieson the other. Meanwhile, the EU and the UnitedStates are making greater efforts to address the

transnational challenge of cyber security.

The FBI's Next Generation Identification(NGI) system

is now fully operational, after more than three years ofdevelopment. The bureau announced today that

development on the project is complete, and it would be

rolling out new features for ongoing criminal notifications

as well as a controversial facial recognition feature called

the Interstate Photo System, or IPS. IPS will serve as "an

image-searching capability of photographs associated

with criminal identities," according to the release.

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September 23, 2014

Real Estate and Construction Outlook

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Will Life Ever Be the Same?

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