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Towards a Science of Cities

Colin HarrisonIBM Distinguished Engineer Emeritus

colinh@us.ibm.com

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From Engineering Efficiency to a Science of Cities

• 2005-7 Life on an Instrumented Planet

• 2008-10 Integrated, sustainable urban systems

• 2011- Sustainable and resilient urban systems

• 2012- People and urban systemsA Science of Cities

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Measuring, Monitoring, Modeling and Managing

MeteringMeteringSensingSensing

Real Time Data Integration

Real Time Data Integration

Real Time + Historical Data

Real Time + Historical Data

Data Modeling + Analytics

Data Modeling + Analytics

Visualization + Decisions

Visualization + Decisions

Data modeling and analytics to create insights from data to feed decision support and actions

Feed

back

to u

ser a

nd d

ata

sour

ce;

Ince

ntive

s an

d ac

tions

to c

hang

e be

havi

or

Feedback to user and data source;Incentives and actions to change behavior

Comparison of historical data, with newly collected data

Data collection

Improved performance derived from data and models to increase efficiency

and effectiveness

Data Integration

Source: “Instrumenting the Planet”, IBM Journal of Research & Development, March 2009

Life on an Instrumented Planet

• The world’s resources are finite– Energy – cost, GHG emissions– Water – “no cost”, Tragedy of the

Commons– Space – roads take 20% of space

• Technology is cheap and available– Billions of sensors– Pervasive networks– Capacity to store and analyze

• Need to close the loop– Price signals– Social Computing– Behavioural Economics

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MASDAR – A “Carbon Neutral” City*

• New city for 90,000 people in Abu Dhabi, UAE

• Entirely powered by photovoltaic and solar thermal energy

• Personal Rapid Transport system – no private transportation

• Complete “Carbon history” of construction

• A learning experience for the construction of green cities

• A project of the Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company, a subsidiary of Mubadala, the development agency of the sovereign wealth fund of Abu Dhabi

Copyright Foster & Partners*August 2008

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Integrated, sustainable urban systems

Intelligent Transportation Systems

- Integrated Fare Management- Road Usage Charging- Traffic Information

Management- Electric Vehicles

Energy Management- Network Monitoring & Stability- Smart Grid – Demand

Management- Intelligent Building Management- Automated Meter Management

Environmental Management- City-wide Measurements- KPI’s, scorecards- CO2 Management

Smart Integrated Building Management

- Integrated control systems- Property Performance

Management- Building to Grid

Enhanced Public Safety- Intelligent Surveillance- Integrated Emergency Services- “Weatherproofing”- Micro-Weather Forecasting

Water Management- Smart metering- Network instrumentation- Combined Sewage

Overflow

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Source: Economist Intelligence Unit surveySource: Economist Intelligence Unit survey

3636Loss of dataLoss of data

Human errorHuman error

System failureSystem failure

Supply chain disruptionSupply chain disruption

Virus, worm or other malicious attack on IT systemsVirus, worm or other malicious attack on IT systems

Employee malfeasance, e.g. theft or fraudEmployee malfeasance, e.g. theft or fraud

Natural disasters, such as fires or floodsNatural disasters, such as fires or floods

Unplanned downtime of online systemsUnplanned downtime of online systems

TerrorismTerrorism

Power outagePower outage

PandemicPandemic

Application failureApplication failure

Industrial actionIndustrial action

3535

3131

2929

2828

2525

2222

2222

1616

1313

1313

1212

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Natural disasters, human error, cascading failures, and cyber-security attacks highlight the complexity and fragility of our global society, its businesses and infrastructure

Thailand: Flooding 2011 Loss ~$4 B, 550 LivesAuto and HDD are hit hard

Australia: Bushfires, 2009Loss ~$4B, 173 Lives

WW: Cloud Service Outage , 2011Loss ~$5600/min

USA: Cyber-attack, 2011Loss ~$170M, Personal information is stolen

Japan: Quake/Tsunami/ Nuclear, 2011Loss ~$200B, 30K Lives Global supply chain impact

USA: Port Strikes, 2002Loss ~$15B Retail and supply chain disruptions

0

20000

40000

60000

80000100000

120000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Number of incidents reported to US-CERT

(Source: US-CERT)

$200B

1900 2011

Estimated damage caused by reported natural disasters

(Source: EM-DAT)

Types of threats most important for operational

risk management planning

(% respondents)

China: + 37 countries, SARS, 2002-2003Loss ~$15B, 916 LivesMajor workforce disruptions

Iceland: Volcano, 2010 Loss ~$1.7B 10M Passengers affected

Sustainable and Resilient Urban Systems

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People and Urban Systems

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Urban Systems are the composition of services and capabilities derived from the natural and built environments that we model

as a large number of GIS layers

Natural Environment

Environment ResourcesTopography

Roads Buildings

Infrastructure

UtilitiesLand Use

Air Oil

Resources

MineralsWater

Information

Services

Energy Water TransportBuilding Services

Social Systems

People Commerce PolicyCulture

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Urban Systems

Information

Capture

Structure Integrate

Store

Typology Taxonomy

Networks Scaling

Economics

Basic Resources

Natural Environment

Flows & Connections

Built Environment

Integrated Simulations

Engineers Complexity Theorists

Urbanists

Transportation Planners

Transportation Managers

Energy/Utility Managers

Public SafetyManagers

Public HealthManagers

Environmental Managers

Economic DevelopmentLeaders

Urban Systems Analysts

Social Scientists

Civic Groups / Open Data

A Science of Cities

Architects

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Global Systems Science Challenges for Urban Systems1. Formal representation of Urban Systems

• Structures of components• Interactions (P2P, P2S, S2P, S2S)• Inter-dependencies (P<-S, S<-S)

2. Spatial, Temporal, and Domain Integration• “Single View of the Truth”• What real-world problems are we trying to solve?

3. The Need for Flower Collecting• Patterns & Principles to simplify model building

4. Scientific Modeling and Practical Modeling• Understanding and insight• Support for decision-making• Rule of one hand – tipping points

5. Resource consumption & production• Natural and Man-Made resources• By-products, waste• Economic outcomes

6. View of “what is the City trying to do?”• “Real-time” sensing of interactions, resource consumption & production• Match between intention and capabilities• City as a Design Problem – How well does it work?

7. Transformation of how the city works• Transition from Industrial Age to Information Age• Planning for One

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Closing thoughts…the City as a Design Problem

• Cities are and always have been information processing systems.

• Cities today are both the source and the solution of many of our global society’s challenges.

• Given the increasingly rich pathways between and among urban systems and people for digital information….what would Steve do?

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Thanks for your attention!