Backcasting Transformation

Aleksi Neuvonen and Johannes Koponen

Changing cities Positive futures Backcasting Nordic Urban Foresight

Co-creational backcasting session

Changing cities

1984 2015 2040

03.28.14

Cities change Cities don’t change

2016 2040

Drone logistics

Automated vehicles3D printed buildings

Augmented reality

+4°C climate change

Resource depletion Food scarcity

Extreme inequality

2016 2040

How can we avoid undesirable futures?

How should we harness potential of technological and social

innovations for making desirable futures to happen?

What impact should these goals and visions have on our lifestyles and expectations on the future?

Desirable Futures

Possible Futures

1. Disruptive technological opportunities are shaping cities radically

2. Yet even more important is how cities tackle wicked problems: become carbon neutral, decrease resource consumption, avoid congestion and alleviate segregation

3. This requires combination of top-down and bottom-up solutions

4. Human experience matters.

Changing cities: 4 takeaways

Why positive futures?

Cities have long-term goals

Cities aim to be forerunners in technology

”We thought that the old recipes of Nokia would work also in the new world. /-/ Nokia looked at the sales of past months when we should have taken a look at what is happening in 2020.”

Jorma Ollila

“Right to security, right to health,

right to learning. All these three

change fundamentally.”

Risto Siilasmaa, Chairman of the Board, Nokia

Foresight is about alternatives•We do foresight to imagine visions of otherness (alternative futures).

• If no such representations exist, there would be no actions, just reactions.“Man acts, not ‘because…’ but ‘in order to…’” (von Jhering 1914).

WHY WE DO SCENARIOS?

• Scenarios help decision making by revealing possible futures.

PresentImage of future #1

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Possible Futures

Image of future #2

Image of future #3

• Scenarios show a logical chain of events that demonstrate how future events are linked

Backcasting

& Backcasting

Forecasting

PresentImage of future #1

Image of future #2

Image of future #3

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

FORECASTING VIEW

Scenarios

Scenarios

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040EMISSIONS -40% GLOBALLY

Image of future #1

Image of future #2

Image of future #3

Present

BACKCASTING VIEW

Forecasting • Causality and determinism• Dominant trends• Need to adapt and survive

Backcasting • Causality and intentions• Desirable futures• Need to guide transformation

FORECASTING VIEW

2016 2040

Desirable Futures

Possible Futures

HOW WE WORK

HOW WE WORK

Sustainable Lifestyles 2050 workshop, Helsinki

Building better Tanzania 2040

workshop, Bagamoyo

HOW WE WORK

1. We need to think long term (over 10 years)

2. Business and cities need positive goals to create positive change and flourish

3. Backcasting helps to navigate beyond and with disruptive changes

Positive futures and Backcasting: 3 takeaways

Nordic Urban Foresight

– A NOVEL WAY TO DEVELOP CITIES

#smartcity #urban #transformation #renewal #foresight #cocreation #testing #smartups #services #energy #retrofitting #startup #walkability #nordic

NORDIC CITIES BEYONDDIGITAL DISRUPTION

Home delivery

Smart offices

Ride sharing

Low- carbon food

Urban farming

Shared spaces

Smart metering

Pop up stores

Mobility-as-a-service

Sharing economy

Street food

Repair services

Smart home

Gamification

Geolocating

Property management

Crowd funding

P2P commerce

Neigborhood apps

Co-working spaces

Fab lab

Free floating vehicle

services

Connected vehicles

Crowd sourced logistics

Cargo bikes

E-bikes

Personal data services

Microwork

Turnkey energy solutions

Heating-as-a-service

Solarenergy-as-a-service

Social cooking

Super small homes

Co-working homes

SMART MOBILITY

SMART BUILDING

SMART PRODUCTION

3 Global Scenarios

Logics… scenarios…

2035 2040 2030 2025 2020 2015

LANDSCAPE LEVEL

AUSTERITY MINDSET NEW WORLD ORDER

OF SOLIDARITY RENEWABLES BOOM GREEN

GROWTH

HIGH TRUST ON NATION STATES

GREEN JOBS

GLOBAL PRICE ON EMISSIONSSEARCH FOR

New GrowthCIRCULAR ECONOMY

GLOBAL EMISSIONS HAVE DECREASED

BY 50%

REGIME LEVEL

CLEANTECH IS DEFINED AS THE FOCUS OF HIGHER EDUCATION

STRICT ENERGY EFFICIENCY STANDARDS ARE SET FOR HOMES

NEW CLIMATE TREATY LAHTI ADJUSTS ITS

POLICY TO THE NEW CLIMATE TREATY

ENERGY SOLUTIONS BY SMARTUPS ARE BOUGHT BY LARGE CORPORATIONS

SMART HOME SOLUTIONS EXPERIENCE A BOOM

SUPERMARKETS ARE TURNED INTO HIGHLY AUTOMATED STORAGE SPACES

RIDESHARING BECOMES PART OF THE REGIONAL/NATIONAL TRANSPORT SYSTEMLAHTI ENERGIA TAKES

A LEADING ROLE IN SOLAR ENERGY PRODUCTION

LAHTI CARRIES OUT MAJOR RETROFITTING AND REFURBISHING PROJECTS

THE TRAMLINE IS TAKEN INTO USE

LAHTI IS A VITAL AND ATTRACTIVE CARBON NEUTRAL CITY

Global Deal in Lahti

NICHE LEVEL

LAHTI RECEIVES EU INVESTMENT/FUNDING FOR NEW CONSUMER CLEANTECH CENTRE

SOLAR PANELS ARE INSTALLED ON THE ROOFTOPS OF THE CITY CENTRE.

TOGETHER WITH OTHER CITIES, LAHTI REGIONAL TRANSPORT LAUNCHES A MOBILITY-AS-A-SERVICE APPLICATION

FIRST SUPERMARKET CHAIN STARTS CROWDSOURCED HOME DELIVERY WITH A RIDESHARING START-UP

A LAHTI-BASED RESEARCH CENTRE BECOMES KNOWN AS AN INTERNATIONALLY LEADING TESTBED FOR NEW TECHNOLOGIES

2025 2030 2035 2040 2020

Startup testbeds

Home delivery

Smart offices

Ride sharing

Low- carbon food

Urban farming

Shared spaces

Smart metering

Pop up stores

Mobility-as-a-service

Sharing economy

Street food

Repair services

Smart home

Gamification

Geolocating

Property management

Crowd funding

P2P commerce

Neigborhood apps

Co-working spaces

Fab lab

Free floating vehicle

services

Connected vehicles

Crowd sourced logistics

Cargo bikes

E-bikes

Personal data services

Microwork

Turnkey energy solutions

Heating-as-a-service

Solarenergy-as-a-service

Social cooking

Super small homes

Co-working homes

SMART MOBILITY

SMART BUILDING

SMART PRODUCTION

Nordic Urban Foresight:4 takeaways

1. Long-term goal 2. Niche level scanning 3. Transformation of rigid factors 4. Testbed experimentation

Changing cities Positive futures Backcasting Nordic Urban Foresight

Co-creational backcasting session

Co-creational backcasting

session

Scenarios

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040EMISSIONS -40% GLOBALLY

Image of future #1

Image of future #2

Image of future #3

Present

BACKCASTING VIEW

Two groups in the main hall, one in the second floor, one in the meeting room.

Each of the 4 groups divides into 3 subgroups during the first task: •mobility •energy •lifestyles

Divide into four groups

2040 Mobility Think Lisa, 45-year-old woman living in Palo Alto. Describe a typical daily trip she travels. What is the biggest change in mobility compared to this day?

2040 Energy Describe the energy production and use in Palo Alto in two pie charts. What is the biggest change in energy use and production by 2040?

2040 Lifestyles Think Lisa, 45-year-old woman living in Palo Alto. What does she do daily (at work, home, etc.). What is the biggest change in lifestyles by 2040?

Goal: -95% GHG emissions in Palo Alto 2040

10 minutes to answer in subgroups

Combine your subgroup ideas to the whole group.

Write your ideas in post-its and attach them to the timeline poster.

What is Palo Alto all about in 2040?

Assuming the requirements of your future timeline around 2040, what should happen already around 2026?

Attach post-its to the posters.

What can happen already by 2026?

Assuming the progress between 2026-2026, what should start happening already now?

Attach post-its to the posters.

What should start already now?

5 minutes to answer individually

Let’s compare scenarios Based on scenario what would be the single most important investment, shift in regulation or other change to promote now?

CO-CREATIONAL FUTURES PROCESS

Exploration

Execution

Expertise & Empathy

WE AIM FOR

METHODS TO DO IT

Delphi

Desktop research

Futures table and states

Expert interviews

Scenario writing

Backcasting

Policy recommen

dations

Presenting the scenarios

Business models

Visualization

applyanalyzetest speculateideatescan

environmentunderstand

1. Long-term goal 2. Niche level scanning 3. Transformation of rigid factors 4. Testbed experimentation

Nordic Urban Foresight:4 takeaways