top 10 digital futures 2016 sap
TRANSCRIPT
Digital
Futures
NO. 1 DIRECT YOUR DIGITAL FUTURE
NO. 2 WHERE WILL THE SELF-DRIVING CAR TAKE US?
NO. 3 DRONES: TOMORROW’S “I” IN THE SKY
NO. 4 MAKERS SHAKE UP MANUFACTURING
NO. 5 BITCOIN’S BLOCKCHAIN: A NEW MODEL FOR TRUST
NO. 6 BLENDING THE BEST OF PEOPLE AND MACHINES
NO. 7 CYBERSECURITY: PROTECTING A HACKABLE WORLD
NO. 8 VIRTUAL REALITY GETS REAL
NO. 9 DIGITAL MEDICINE: HEALING BETTER
NO. 10 ENVELOPED BY AMBIENT INTELLIGENCE
SOURCES
As advances in digital technology accelerate exponentially, they can outrun our ability to keep up with them. Yet, in the next decade or so, they will fundamentally redefine the way we work, live, and play.
We’ve examined 10 of the most powerful trends shaping our future. These unique insights will help you better understand, and provide the foresight to exploit, the amazing opportunities they hold. So you can reimagine your world.
Vivek BapatSAP Marketing
Produced by SAP Marketing
In six years Airbnb grew to one of world’s
largest hotel companies. Without owning
any hotels.
The cost of sequencing a DNA genome is
outpacing Moore’s Law. It could be as low as US$0.01 by 2020.
10M new autonomous vehicles per year could be driving on U.S. roads
by 2030.
In 2000 starting an nternet company cost
US$5M. Today it’s less than US$5,000.
Uber, Lyft, and Sidecar slashed 65% of
San Francisco taxi rides in only 15 months.
47% of U.S. employees are at risk of being
replaced by artificial intelligence within
10 years.
Once digitized a thing can be copied infinitely and perfectly and made instantly available to everyone. This spurs innovation and, with it, exponential growth.Next begins a period of deception because this growth appears linear at first; demonetization, as expensive goods can now be offered almost free; dematerialization, when existing products disappear into other, digital ones; and democratization, as costs drop so low enough to be affordable by almost everyone.
DIGITIZATION IS THE CATALYST
Self-driving vehicles will dramatically change driver/passenger experiences, increase productivity and safety, and reduce the need to own vehicles for personal use. The automobile, insurance, legal, and transportation industries will all feel the impact.
Bitcoin threatens to undermine the traditional roles played by banks and payment systems by providing a viable alternative to traditional currency.
3D printing has the potential to render product complexity essentially free by bypassing the physical limits of how we make and ship things. This will funda- mentally change the manufacturing and distribution industries.
Digital bio-fabrication and DNA sequencing will transform healthcare by greatly extending lifespans and making ultra-personalized medicine available to billions.
Organizational structure, the nature of work, and the limits of human performance will be rethought, as leadership, management, and education are transformed to fit our digital age.
Credit: “The Six Ds of Exponentials” (Steven Kotler, February 3, 2015)
DISRUPTION EXAMPLES
The end-result is disruption, when the status quo is suddenly overwhelmed and a whole new market is created.
IDENTIFYyour top competitive advantages and how exponential technologies could disrupt them.
DESCRIBEyour top challenges and how exponential tech- nologies could help solve them.
EVALUATEwhich products and services could be digitized and what opportunities this creates for you (and your competitors).
INVESTIGATE which technologies are the most promising, and begin – today – to assess their potential.
TO DIRECT YOUR DIGITAL FUTURE
Direct Your Digital Future
Digital
FuturesNo. 01
DIRECT YOUR DIGITAL FUTUREGordon Moore’s venerable law turns 50, a milestone which
carries a powerful inflection point. We’re now at the knee of digital technology’s exponential growth curve.Thirty normal steps take you about 30 meters. Thirty exponential steps (each step twice the distance as the previous one) covers 1,073,742 kilometers or more than 26 times around the earth.
Digital Futures No. 01 NEXTPREVIOUSHOME SOURCES
Also read “How To Direct Your Digital Future: 4 Questions.”
No. 02
WHERE WILL THE SELF-DRIVING CAR TAKE US?Automobiles haven’t changed much since the late
1800s. They’re faster and more comfortable, but they’re still four wheels and an engine with a person
behind the steering wheel. That’s all about to change.Lidar, radar, cameras, sensors, mapping and navigational software, and all the other technologies necessary to create an autonomous car already exist. Auto dealers will begin offering self-driving cars within the next five years. And because they will be safer, more convenient, and more fuel efficient than today’s cars, they’re likely to become the norm, if not mandatory, in many places.
GEAR SHIFTS
WARNING: SHARP CURVES AHEAD
We depend so much on cars and trucks that we rarely think about them. They’re woven so deeply into our lives and our culture that we simply take them for granted. Self-driving vehicles will shake up most of our assumptions.
Safer, more convenient, and more fuel efficient, they’ll save a projected US$1.3 trillion a year in the U.S. alone – an amount equal to 8% of the U.S. GDP. This is likely to make them common, if not mandatory, in much of the world.
Cars that drive themselves will be a profound shift that touches almost every industry, geography, and aspect of life:
Cost of adding self-driving technology to a vehicle:
US$8K−$10K and dropping.
Annual savings in the U.S. alone: $1.3 trillion –
8% of the U.S. GDP.
The 1.2 billion cars on the roads are used
just 4% of the time. That’s 8.2 trillion hours
of nonuse per year.
2020: fully autonomous cars
arrive in dealerships.
Software will make up as much as
40% of a car’s value.
5. AGING
Seniors who would otherwise be stuck at home will be able to summon self-driving transportation to the doctor, to shops and restaurants, and to visit friends and family.
1. OUR HOMETOWNS
Self-driving cars could increase suburban sprawl by making long commutes more pleasant, but they could also make urban living more appealing by reducing traffic, parking problems, and inefficient mass transit.
6. SAFETY
Even when cars can choose their own routes, they’ll still need manual overrides and programming exceptions for things that interfere with navigation, like bad weather, or emergencies that require a fast trip to the nearest ER.
2. CAR CULTURE
Car ownership could increase as vehicles find the best routes and parking spaces on their own. Howev-er, a car-sharing model might prevail when cars can guide themselves from one user to the next. Today’s cars might become collectibles driven with special licenses.
7. LIABILITY
When the driver isn’t controlling the ride, manufacturers and software companies could be responsible for payments related to an accident. Their deeper pockets could drive up awards for damages and change both the rates and structure of insurance coverage.
3. CAR DESIGN
Cars will look different. Steering wheels, large windows, and even headlights could be things of the past. Cars will become highly aero-dynamic, with interiors designed solely for the entertainment and comfort of the occupants.
8. THE AUTO INDUSTRY
Self-driving cars will disrupt the entire automotive industry, from manufacturing to ownership. Software that manages the car will be close to 40% of the vehicle’s total value. Cars will generate vast amounts of data that will have to be processed, analyzed, and protected.
4. TRAVEL CONDITIONS
Once everyone is free to work and play in their cars, automakers, OEMs, and content providers will compete to deliver apps, content, and user interfaces to make the ride more entertaining and productive.
Digital
Futures
Where will the self-driving car take us?Digital Futures No. 02 NEXTPREVIOUSHOME SOURCES
Also read “Self-Driving Cars: Joyride or Wrong Turn?”
No. 03
DRONES: TOMORROW’S “I” IN THE SKYThe first drones were remote-controlled model planes used in World War I to surveil battlefields. Today, a drone is any unmanned aerial vehicle that combines a power source, sensors or cameras, intelligent software, and
a communication link to its operator. But they are much more.Drones are ideal for taking exponential technologies anywhere we want to send them. What’s more, they’re getting exponentially simpler, safer, smaller, and more powerful with each turn of the Moore’s Law crank. We’re hurtling toward a future in which drones are widely available, increasingly autonomous, and capable of tasks we haven’t begun to imagine.
Drones promise a world where we can capture any imaginable information from any conceivable location, see and understand places previously beyond our reach, and affect environments in ways we’re barely beginning to understand.
On the other hand, drones may have enormous ramifications on personal security and privacy, creating a world in which everything is recorded, monitored, and indexed for searching and analysis.
PROJECTING A FLIGHT PATH
TRAJECTING UPWARDS, QUICKLY
The same rules of exponential growth accelerating other technologies suggest drones will be a thousand times more powerful in the next decade. Imagine when drones are:
1. Tiny Some experts predict drones the size of a housefly − or even smaller. Think injectable medical nanodrones.
2. Infinitely versatile Drones could pollinate flowers, perform microsurgery, deliver cargo, provide wireless Internet access, even build using 3D printers.
3. Completely autonomous They will make their own decisions, within assigned parameters, about what to seek out, sense, and transmit.
4. Hyperconnected They’ll work together in swarms, fly in formation, and share data that helps them avoid obstacles and choose the most efficient routes.
5. Affordable by anyone Better materials, batteries, and propulsion will lower costs to the point where drones can deliver high performance to organizations or individuals for just a few dollars each.
DRONES IN ACTION
Today’s drones combine more energy efficiency, smarter software, and an expanding array of sensors to augment human
capabilities in a range of commercial industries.Agriculture: assessing crop health, monitoring irrigation systems, and tracking livestock
Emergency response: spotting forest fires, conducting search and rescue missions, and delivering food and medical supplies to war zones and remote villages
Utilities: inspecting wires, towers, power plants, and pipelines
Scientific research: tracking animal migrations, reporting on weather patterns, and finding previously unknown artifacts
Real estate: inspecting construction and improving security
News and entertainment: taking photos and videos from previously unreachable vantage points
50 lbs
The first GPS receiver weighed 50 pounds and cost
more than US$100,000. Today, a 0.3-gram GPS chip
costs less than US$5.
The global market forcommercial drones will rise
from $15.22M in 2014 to$1.27B in 2020: tripling every
18 months, faster eventhan Moore’s Law.
800 million people worldwide have limited access to emergency
services due to weak transportation
infrastructure.
Cargo drones could turbocharge economic development in Africa,
where only 16% of roads are paved.
Solar-powered drones will provide Internet, Wi-Fi, and
telecom services to people in remote places on earth. Digital
Futures
Drones: Tomorrow’s “I” in the skyDigital Futures No. 03 NEXTPREVIOUSHOME SOURCES
Also read “Drones: Lots of Buzz and a Little Bit of Sting”
No. 04
MAKERS SHAKE UP MANUFACTURINGFiguring out what customers want can be a fruitless exercise. Traditional methods often leave companies guessing at real desires, and mass
customization is complex and expensive for many products. But what
would happen if customers could design and produce their own products?
The maker movement is growing up quickly. Individuals and startups increasingly bypass traditional industry to produce bespoke goods on their own. As 3D printing technology accelerates, hackerspaces are democratizing high-end production tools. And with new crowdfunding and online retail options, control over product development and production will return to the individual.
10.8
in
4.7 in
Cannibalize existing business models, and reorganize around individual buyer and maker needs.
Figure out how to manage IP protection, product quality, corporate responsibility, and innovation in a highly distributed environment.
Companies must help customers customize, or else customers will do it on their own.
A MANUFACTURING RENAISSANCE
Technological and sociological shifts will turn the industrial revolution on its head. Today most products
are designed for manufacturers − to make production easier. In the near future, products will be designed for and by individuals.This transformation has already begun. Coca-Cola introduced the Freestyle fountain, and now soda buyers can create their own concoction from more than 100 flavors. NIKEiD lets people put their personal stamp on sneakers, and Hershey partnered with 3D Systems to create the CoCoJet 3D printer.
The 3D printing market will quadruple to
US$12 billion.
In 2006 the San Francisco MakerFaire attracted 65,000
enthusiasts. Last year 130,000 attended,
and another 85,000 attended in New York.
Today, there are 1,100 hackerspaces around the world giving people
access to production tools once available only
to corporations.
Peer-to-peer e-commerce site Etsy’s revenue nearly
quadrupled in only 4 years − from US$525 million in 2011 to US$1.9 billion in 2014.
Crowdfunding campaigns generated US$11.08 billion
in 2014. The market will grow to US$93 billion
by 2025.
A MAKER MAINSTREAM
As customization becomes a matter of changing code rather than retooling an assembly floor, it will become the norm.
INDIVIDUAL-CENTERED INNOVATION.Today, innovation is tucked away in R&D departments, funding is provided by corporate finance, and production takes place a world away. Twenty years from now, it will take place in your neighborhood.
A LOT SIZE OF ONE.As 3D printing accelerates and comes down in price, more goods that once required economies of scale from a centralized factory will be produced at or near their point of use.
CREATIVITY, CRAFTSMANSHIP, COMMUNITY.Creative subcultures will flourish as individuals collaborate on ideas, fund-ing, and production. Some may flock to cities and towns; others will work together virtually.
IP: THE CORPORATE ASSET.It will not be that you produce something that delivers value but that you know how to produce it − and in myriad ways. Instead of designing, manufacturing, and delivering products, companies will design and deliver IP.
MAKER MOVEMENT MANDATES
$$ $
Digital
Futures
Makers shake up manufacturingDigital Futures No. 04 NEXTPREVIOUSHOME SOURCES
Also read “The Top Reasons Why the Maker Movement Will Be the Next Renaissance”
No. 05
BITCOIN’S BLOCKCHAIN: A NEW MODEL FOR TRUSTIf you think a digital currency like Bitcoin isn’t relevant to your business, think again. Bitcoin probably won’t replace the dollar, pound, euro, or yen, but its underlying technology – the
blockchain – could challenge our assumptions about what makes commerce secure and trustworthy.The blockchain model of trust, through massively distributed digital consensus, could have disruptive potential equal to the Internet in the 1990s. This computer science breakthrough could reshape commerce across the entire digital economy.
The Bitcoin blockchain — the digital ledger of transactions — is growing exponentially
and doubled to 40GB from August 2014 to August 2015.
As of August 2015, the Bitcoin blockchain alone
was already solving nearly 400 billion complex
mathematical equations per second.
The first worldwide conference on applying
blockchain technology was held on May 28, 2015.
Honduras began creating land titles based on
blockchain technology in May 2015.
Visa, the world’s largest pay-ment network, is launching
a blockchain technology development team to bring secure digital finance to
unbanked consumers.
The blockchain is a distributed digital ledger that uses a breakthrough in computer science to authenticate the transactions within it.
The blockchain can replace trusted third parties, like banks, in guaranteeing transactions and coordinates agreement among all parties.
It strongly resists interference. Entries are protected with cryptography that becomes increasingly secure as the number of transactions and participants grows.
TRUST BY DISTRIBUTED DIGITAL CONSENSUS
BLOCKCHAINS WILL KEEP US TOGETHER
Every stage of a transaction is recorded and
authenticated by the blockchain. As a result, its utility goes beyond currency. In theory, the blockchain could be used for any transaction that must be
secure and verifiable. For example:
Personal documentation, including birth certificates, passports, wills, voter registrations, criminal records, and medical records
Business documentation, such as building permits, vehicle registrations, health and safety inspections, business licenses, leases, and deeds
Establishing ownership and provenance of all kinds of intellectual property, from artwork to software code
Managing ownership of and access to homes, vehicles, safe deposit boxes, and other physical objects
Legal compliance that verifies the chain of custody of sensitive data, manages software and hardware licenses, and protects patents, copyrights, and trademarks
Financial transactions, from stock and bond trading to the release of funds only when predetermined conditions are met
Digital
Futures
Bitcoin’s blockchain: A new model for trustDigital Futures No. 05 NEXTPREVIOUSHOME SOURCES
Also read “Beyond Bitcoin: How the Blockchain Could Disrupt Our Financial System”
No. 06
BLENDING THE BEST OF PEOPLE AND MACHINESHumans have always been fascinated with robotics, but
legends like Isaac Asimov’s code of robot ethics, James Cameron’s cyborg assassin, and Marvel Comics’ Iron Man have been the stuff of science fiction. That is about to change.Automation and artificial intelligence will affect every aspect of human life. But the future needn’t be a dystopian one. As robots take over increasingly complex tasks, new forms of man-machine interaction will emerge and industry and society will evolve to accommodate a symbiotic relationship.
Converging trends will spur new forms of robotics – flexible, sensory, tactile, intelligent, and interactive – with capabilities far beyond what we envision today. Robots complement the workforce by crunching numbers, lifting heavy objects, working in dangerous places, moving with precision, and performing repetitive tasks. This leads many people to ask if robots might replace us for all endeavors.
But human advantages include creativity, curiosity, empathy, self-motivation, and the ability to provide multidimensional feedback. Using advanced robotics technology, we can blend the best of people and machines.
WE, ROBOT
The robotics market will grow 9.5% per year to
US$66.9B by 2025. Military and industrial uses will
be 60% of the total. Commercial and personal uses will grow even faster.
The number of Internet of Things sensors will grow
from 14.8B in 2015 to 50B by 2020. There will be 200B Internet-connected
things in 2030.
Image and speech recognition technologies
are advancing quickly and could soon equal
human abilities.
Tactile technology is improving rapidly due
to research and development in robot
-assisted medicine.
The nascent virtual reality market will grow to US$30B in the next
five years, while augmented reality will be a US$120B
business by 2020.
• New York University and the Florida Institute for Human and Machine Cognition are developing exoskeletons for the disabled.
• The U.S. military is developing an “Iron Man” suit that could include super-human strength and respond directly to brain functions.
• A team of researchers at Harvard University have created a “smart suit” that makes its wearer faster, stronger, and more agile.
WE’VE ALREADY BEGUN
Collaboration with robots will spur innovation, growth, and new ways of working. Rather than fear robot takeovers, it’s better to:
• Digitize processes ripe for automation. Identify those that benefit from human advantages but might be improved by robot-human collaboration.
• Experiment with robot technologies as they emerge. Consider pilots in production and supply chains.
• Invite employees to propose new ideas. Be open to entirely new robot forms and functions.
• Develop future scenarios based on your unique business model and industry needs.
WORKING WITH THE MACHINES
Advances in speech and image recognition, analytics, and virtual reality will spur robot development along two paths:
• A new class of human-machine units with defined autonomy, heightened empathy, and significant artificial intelligence
• Artificial human extensions like stronger arms and legs, night vision, and other sensory enhancements
The result? Challenges like colonizing our oceans or space travel will be realized in ways that we could not accomplish alone.
THE UPSIDE OF CO-EVOLUTION
Digital
Futures
Blending the best of people and machinesDigital Futures No. 06 NEXTPREVIOUSHOME SOURCES
Also read “The Future of Robotics: More Ironman, Less Terminator”
No. 07
CYBERSECURITY: PROTECTING A HACKABLE WORLDThe Internet was created to share data not protect it. But as the Internet becomes more central to daily life and grows to include billions of networkable items, guarding it has become a gargantuan challenge. It’s hard to lock down a system that was deliberately designed for openness, resilience, and scale. Some say only a massive global initiative will do.
1999: “White hat” hackers predict the dangers of ubiquitous networking.
2012: New Internet Protocol allows 78 octillion IP addresses – 1 trillion for
every grain of sand on earth.
January 2014: Security pros uncover a spambot network of more than
100,000 smart devices, including a refrigerator.
July 2015: Hackers prove they can remotely highjack a car.
September 2015: Researchers find potential vulnerabilities in 68,000
medical devices.
Security tools and procedures are complex and costly. Some businesses fail to implement them because they don’t understand their risk exposure. Others understandably choose to prioritize things with a direct, tangible effect on the bottom line, like customer service.Traditionally, liability for security breaches has landed not on companies that have failed to secure their systems but on the software and hardware companies that make or manage those systems. This is changing, however. Enterprises can no longer consider cybersecurity someone else’s problem.
MISSED OPPORTUNITIES
RISING RISKS, INCREASED ATTENTION
Practice basic digital hygiene by using robust passwords, two-factor authentication, and hard-drive encryption whenever possible – and by taking social media privacy settings seriously.
Plan and invest to secure the data, inter- actions, transactions, and identities of customers, employees, and partners.
Some experts even recommend using honest hackers to expose vulnerabilities and help develop stronger defenses.
But these may not be enough. With today’s cyber criminals circumventing security measures as fast as they’re developed, we may need to consider a global response – one with the intensity of the effort that took humanity to the moon in 1969. The future of the Digital Economy could depend on it.
We finally understand that when everything is networked, anything can be hacked. As organizations and individuals become increasingly digital, we’re exponentially more vulnerable to cybersecurity breaches. However, openness is so baked into the fundamental structure of the Internet that re-engineering it for greater security is an enormous challenge.
The Internet is now too embedded in modern society to avoid. Our only choice is to ensure that this global network can be trusted with our most critical services and transactions. At a minimum we must take the following actions:
1 2 3
Digital
Futures
Cybersecurity: Protecting a hackable worldDigital Futures No. 07 NEXTPREVIOUSHOME SOURCES
Also read “Cyber Insecurity: Trying to Waterproof a Sieve”
No. 08
VIRTUAL REALITY GETS REALVirtual reality (VR), the use of digital technology to create
immersive simulations, was once the stuff of science fiction. So was augmented reality (AR), which lets users interact
with digital content that’s overlaid on the real world. But thanks
to Moore’s Law, VR and AR are about to go mainstream.With digitally enhanced realities firmly in the bend of the exponential growth curve, current uses for VR and AR suggest amazing possibilities for the future. They may even transform our very definition of reality.
ALREADY IN ACTION
TV weather reports adopted the first application
of AR on TV in 1975. The term virtual reality
was first coined in 1989.
The human eye registers 1 ten-trillionth of the
electromagnetic spectrum.
Oculus Rift raised US$2.5 million on Kickstarter
in August 2012. Facebook bought the company for
$2 billion 18 months later.
Overall, AR and VR revenues are predicted to reach $150 billion by 2020.
By 2020, 103 million automobiles will contain
AR technology.
VR’s potential for extending human perceptions beyond our current abilities could create a truly mind-bending future:
We might use AR or VR for hyper-spectral imaging beyond the visible electromagnetic spectrum to let us “see” valuable mineral deposits, hazardous emissions, or even malignant tumors.
We might wear clothing that converts data into tactile sensa-tions so we can feel an audience responding on social media as we deliver a speech or sense aircraft flight dynamics as immersively as a bird does.
CEOs might someday wear a glasses-and-vest combination that lets them see and feel, in real time, how different parts of the business are running.
REDEFINING REALITY
Retailers will let you try on a dozen outfits in a few minutes using an avatar customized to your measurements.
Car dealers will let you sit in VR simulations of new models.
AR devices will overlay diagnostic and treatment information on patients’ bodies in the medical office or operating room.
VR will let medical students practice complex procedures safely using simulated patients.
Anxiety sufferers will learn to control panic attacks with VR/AR games they navigate by controlling their breathing.
Bedridden individuals will enjoy better quality of life through virtual experiences of real-world activities like going for a walk or riding a bike.
COMING SOON
WE’LL MOVE BEYOND CREATING DIGITAL INTERPRETATIONS OF REALITY AND LIVE IN A WORLD WHERE REALITY ITSELF IS BROADER AND RICHER THAN WE CAN CURRENTLY IMAGINE.
TOMS Shoes shows customers the impact of their charitable donations with a four-minute VR video that visits the residents of a Peruvian village.
The Los Angeles Philharmonic immerses you in the middle of the music with a VR trip into the orchestra pit and onto the conductor’s podium.
Lowe’s lets customers re-create their bathrooms in an AR space, position new fixtures, and walk through the simulated renovation.
Researchers have developed VR experiences that work as well as the current standard for assessing cognitive function after a brain injury.
Clinics are testing VR technology as a safe, private way to distract patients from chronic pain and help phobia sufferers overcome their fears.
ALREADY IN ACTION
Digital
Futures
Vitrual reality gets realDigital Futures No. 08 NEXTPREVIOUSHOME SOURCES
Also read “Virtual Reality Finally Gets Real”
No. 09
DIGITAL MEDICINE: HEALING BETTER The human body is difficult to understand and predict. X does
not necessarily lead to Y. Disease has multiple causal components. That complexity is one reason healthcare has remained largely immune to the transformative potential of technology. However, several converging trends could change this. Access to an abundance of genetic, phenotypic, and clinical data; real-time and in-memory computing for advanced analytics; and a digitized, connected patient population could make possible a better understanding of the intricacies of human health.
Healthcare invests more in treatment than prevention;
approximately 86% of U.S. healthcare spending is
for chronic conditions.
Remote patient monitoring for conditions like heart
disease, asthma, and diabetes could save more than
US$200 billion.
Telehealth options (estimated to be a $25 billion market
in 2015) for routine and psychological care could
save $100 billion.
The global medical technology market is
estimated to reach $513.5 billion by 2020, from
$363.8 billion in 2013.
In 2015, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration
approved the first 3D-printed drug.
TREATING THE INDIVIDUAL
VITAL SIGNS OF CHANGE
It’s possible to gather more health-related data than ever. But the digital medical revolution will go far beyond wireless tracking devices that monitor how we perform against fitness goals. Researchers and enterprises are developing devices to collect ever-more detailed health information from individuals and relay it to healthcare providers.
Pharmacogenomics and predictive biomarkers will match patients with the best drugs or treatments.
Advanced analytic engines and algorithms will enable doctors to tailor treatment plans in real time.
3D printers will produce living tissue, organs, prosthetics, and implants customized for individuals.
Robots and drones will enable more exacting surgical interventions.
Low-cost gene-editing solutions will go from laboratory to doctor’s office.
Data sharing between companies and customers lowers costs and improves quality in a range of industries and could do the same for healthcare. Rapidly improving data collection and analytics are enabling a pluralistic approach to care that will finally shift focus from treating the sick to preventing illness.
Rapidly advancing technologies will enable much better patient care.
THE UPSIDE OF COMPLEXITY
Big data alone will not cure what ails healthcare. But today’s reactive, one-size-fits-all system will move to proactive, individualized delivery of health management and disease prevention – if the industry chooses to manage complexity rather than work around it.
WE CAN GET THERE FROM HERE
THE INDUSTRY MUST EMBRACE NEW PROCESSES CENTERED ON OUTCOMES AND CONSUMER CONTROLS.
THERE SHOULD BE DEBATES OVER THE ETHICS OF PREDICTIVE MEDICINE AND DNA-BASED CARE.
PRIVACY AND SECURITY ISSUES WILL BE PARAMOUNT; HACKING IS EVEN MORE OMINOUS IN THE HEALTHCARE SETTING, FROM THE BREACH OF PERSONAL MEDICAL DATA TO THE THREAT OF MALWARE IN MEDICAL DEVICES.
However, other industries have addressed similar security, privacy, and change management issues required for digital transformation. Healthcare can follow suit. The resulting transformation would not only save resources but also lives.
Digital
Futures
Digital medicine: Healing betterDigital Futures No. 09 NEXTPREVIOUSHOME SOURCES
Also read “Digital Medicine: Healing Better in a Complex System”
No. 10
ENVELOPED BY AMBIENT INTELLIGENCEThe logical evolution of the Internet of Things is a world where everything around us is instrumented, interconnected,
and intelligent. We will move through a world in which our surroundings are smart enough to react to our voices and
gestures – or respond to us automatically, proactively,
almost incidentally.
And that shift is coming sooner than you might expect.
Digital
Futures
Integrate information flow across devices, manufacturers, data types, and technologies
Analyze and manage objects and low-level events to detect signals and predict impact
Orchestrate simple events and objects to fulfill complex events and end-to-end processes
End-to-end security and monitoring across devices, connections, and information exchange
Credit: Deloitte Consulting, 2015
Powerful emerging technologies will
overlap and intersect:
INTERSECTING TRENDS
As sensors and devices become smaller, smarter, and more integrated, they will fade into the background, melding into a digital infrastructure that responds proactively to the environment and the people in it.
At a minimum, the infrastructure must achieve these capabilities:
THE INTERNET OF NOT THINGS
1 trillion sensors will be connected to the Internet
by 2022.
Appliances and home automation will account for
more than half of household Internet traffic by 2024.
The first “smart city” with Internet-connected,
automated roads, services, and utilities will emerge
by 2026.
Fabrics that can charge electronics – or incorporate
them – already exist.
Over 8 billion ambient intelligence smartphone apps
will be downloaded in 2020.
Sensors and actuators, including implantables and wearables, which will capture and act on data from vastly more objects and places
Interfaces powered by vision and/or gesture, which will create a highly interactive world
Ubiquitous computing and hyperconnectivity, which will exponentially increase interaction and intelligence
Virtual and augmented reality, which will extend and enhance our senses
The differences between drones, robots, and autonomous vehicles are already blurring.
Nanotechnology and nanomaterials, which will enable highly complex devices at a microscopic scale
Artificial intelligence, which lets machines learn from their environment and each other
Blockchain technology, which automatically secures and verifies information, identities, and transactions
TRYING IT ON, NOW
To prepare for this world, we need to think about what it means to be surrounded by largely invisible systems that can sense, reason, act, and interact with and for us.
AMBIENT INTELLIGENCE WILL CREATE VALUE IN WAYS WE HAVE YET TO IMAGINE, WHILE RAISING PROFOUND QUESTIONS ABOUT WHAT IT MEANS TO BE HUMAN.
Artificial intelligence is already good enough at pattern matching to learn and make complex decisions without human intervention.
Home automation makes it possible for lights, air conditioners, security systems, entertainment systems, and appliances to run independently.
Cities like Barcelona and Singapore are launching “smart city” initiatives to test automated services.
1234
Enveloped by ambient intelligenceDigital Futures No. 10 NEXTPREVIOUSHOME SOURCES
Also read “Ambient Intelligence: Always On, Always There, Everywhere”
Issue 01: Direct Your Digital Future
In six years Airbnb grew to one of world’s largest hotel companies. Without owning any hotels. “Airbnb Catching Chains in Bookings,” accommnews, January 21, 2015, http://www.accomnews.com/industry/154- news-in-brief/4733-airbnb-catching-chains-in-bookings
The cost of sequencing a DNA genome is outpacing Moore’s Law. It could be as low as US$0.01 by 2020 Antonio Regalado, “EmTech: Illumina Says 228,000 Human Genomes Will Be Sequenced This Year,” MIT Technology Review, September 24, 2014, http://www.technologyreview.com/news/531091/emtech-illumina-says-228000-human-genomes-will- be-sequenced-this-year/
James Bannon, “Heading for $100: The Declining Costs of Genome Sequencing & the Consequences,” (Ark Invest, 2014), http://ark-invest.com/genomic-revolution/declining-costs-of-genome-sequencing
Art Wuster, “Is It Cheaper to Re-sequence a Genome Than to Save It in Computer Memory? Seqonomics, December 9, 2011, http://seqonomics.blogspot.com/2011/12/is-it-cheaper-to-re-sequence-genome.html
10M autonomous new vehicles per year could be driving on U.S. roads by 2030. “Half of New Vehicles Shipping in North America to Have Driverless, Robotic Capabilities by 2032” (press release), ABI Research, August 27, 2013, https://www.abiresearch.com/press/half-of-new-vehicles- shipping-in-north-america-to-/
In 2000 starting an Internet company cost US$5M. Today it’s less than US$5,000. Peter Diamandis, “Evidence of Abundance #16: 1,000 Times Cheaper to Launch a Startup, 2014,” Huffington Post, October 30, 2014, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/peter-diamandis/evidence-of-abundance-16_b_5915712.html
Uber, Lyft, and Sidecar slashed 65% of San Francisco taxi rides in only 15 months. Jessica Kwong, “Report Says SF Taxis Suffering Greatly,” The Examiner, September 16, 2014, http://archives.sfexaminer.com/sanfrancisco/report-says-sf-taxis-suffering-greatly/Content?oid=2899618
47% of U.S. employees are at risk of being replaced by artificial intelligence within 10 years. Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation? (Oxford: University of Oxford, 2013), http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf
Issue 02: Where Will the Self-Driving Car Take Us?
The cost of adding self-driving technology to a vehicle: US$8K−$10K and dropping. Alex Davies, “Turns Out the Hardware in Self-Driving Cars Is Pretty Cheap,” WIRED.com, April 22, 2015, http://www.wired.com/2015/04/cost-of-sensors-autonomous-cars/?mbid=social_twitter
Average savings in the U.S. alone: $1.3 trillion – 8% of the U.S. GDP. Autonomous Cars:
Self-Driving the New Auto Industry Paradigm, Morgan Stanley Research, November 6, 2013, http://www.wisburg.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/%EF%BC%88109-pages-2014%EF%BC%89MORGAN-STANLEY-BLUE-PAPER-AUTONOMOUS-CARS%EF%BC%9A-SELF-DRIVING-THE-NEW-AUTO-INDUSTRY-PARADIGM.pdf
The 1.2 billion cars on the roads are used just 4% of the time. That’s 8.2 trillion hours of nonuse per year. Andrew Simonetti, “The Futurist – Uber, Take the Wheel,” The Daily, April 13, 2015, http://www.dailyuw.com/opinion/article_a3911e4a-e244-11e4-a1f7-8fbb1ff20a33.html
2020: fully autonomous cars arrive in dealerships. “Everyone Will Have Self-Driving Car By 2026, Analyst Says,” The Huffington Post – Tech, February 28, 2014, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/02/27/morgan-stanley-autonomous-cars-prediction_n_4867613.html
Software will make up as much as 40% of a car’s value. Autonomous Cars: Self-
Driving the New Auto Industry Paradigm, Morgan Stanley Research, November 6, 2013, http://www.wisburg.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/%EF%BC%88109-pages-2014%EF%BC%89MORGAN-STANLEY-BLUE-PAPER-AUTONOMOUS-CARS%EF%BC%9A-SELF-DRIVING-THE-NEW-AUTO-INDUSTRY-PARADIGM.pdf
Issue 03: Drones: Tomorrow’s “I” in the Sky
The first GPS receiver weighed 50 pounds and cost more than US$100,000. Today, a 0.3-gram GPS chip costs less than US$5. Peter Diamandis, “Top 10 Reasons Drones Are Disruptive,” Forbes.com, August 11, 2014, http://www.forbes.com/sites/peterdiamandis/2014/08/11/top-10-reasons-drones-are-disruptive/
The global market for commercial drones will rise from US$15.22M in 2014 to US$1.27B in 2020. This is a tripling every 18 months – faster than even Moore’s Law. UAV Drone
Market for Commercial Worth $1.27 Billion by 2020, MarketsandMarkets, February, 2015, http://www.marketsandmarkets.com/PressReleases/commercial-drones.asp
800 million people worldwide have limited access to emergency services due to weak transportation infrastructure. J.M. Ledgard and Scott MacMillan, “Drones for Development,” Project Syndicate, June 5, 2015, http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/drones-africa-development-by-j-m-ledgard-and-scott-macmillan-2015-06
Cargo drones could turbocharge economic development in Africa, where only 16% of roads are paved. J. M. Ledgard, “Better Use of the Lower Sky in a Sharing Economy,” Medium, September 23, 2014, https://medium.com/@eternaut/build-cargo-drones-get-rich-9b858dffaba
Solar-powered drones will provide Internet, Wi-Fi, and telecom services to people in remote places on earth. Thomas Frey, “Engineering the Secret Engines of Off-Grid Living,” Futurist Speaker, June 24, 2015, http://www.futuristspeaker.com/2015/06/engineering-the-secret-engines-of-off-grid-living/
Issue 04: Makers Shake Up Manufacturing
The 3D printing market will quadruple to US$12 billion by 2025. “3D Printing Market to Quadruple to $12 Billion in 2025” [press release], Lux Research, April 29, 2014, http://www.luxresearchinc.com/news-and-events/press-releases/read/3d-printing-market-quadruple-12-billion-2025
In 2006 the San Francisco MakerFaire attracted 65,000 enthusiasts. Last year 130,000 attended, and another 85,000 attended in New York. Maker Faire: A Bit of History,” MakerFaire.com, accessed August 11, 2015, http://makerfaire.com/makerfairehistory/
“Media Kit & Press Resources,” MakerFaire.com, accessed August 11, 2015, http://makerfaire.com/media-kit-press-resources/
Today, there are 1,100 hackerspaces around the world giving people access to production tools once available only to corporations. “List of Hacker Spaces,” hackerpaces.org, accessed August 11, 2015, https://wiki.hackerspaces.org/List_of_Hacker_Spaces
Peer-to-peer e-commerce site Etsy’s revenue nearly quadrupled in only 4 years − from US$525 million in 2011 to US$1.9 billion in 2014. Ruth Reader, “Etsy Starts Trading on the Nasdaq at $31 per Share — Nearly Double Its Original Price,” VentureBeat, April 16, 2015, http://venturebeat.com/2015/04/16/etsy-starts-trading-on-the-nasdaq-at-31-per-share-nearly-double-its-original-price/
Crowdfunding campaigns generated US$11.08 billion in 2014. The market will grow to US$93 billion by 2025. Katie Kuehner-Hebert, “Crowdfunding Volumes Grow to $16B”, CFO.com, April 2, 2015, http://ww2.cfo.com/credit-capital/2015/04/crowdfunding-volumes-grow-16b/
Crowdfunding’s Potential for the Developing World (Washington, DC: infoDev, Finance and Private Sector Development Department, The World Bank, 2013), http://www.infodev.org/infodev-files/wb_crowdfundingreport-v12.pdf
Issue 05: Bitcoin’s Blockchain – A New Model For Trust
The Bitcoin blockchain — the digital ledger of transactions — is growing exponentially, and doubled to 40GB from August 2014 to August 2015. Blockchain.info, Blockchain Size
graph, https://blockchain.info/charts/blocks-size?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=
As of August 2015, the Bitcoin blockchain was already solving nearly 400 billion complex mathematical equations per second. Blockchain.info, Hash Rate graph, https://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate
The first worldwide conference on applying blockchain technology was held on May 28, 2015. The Block Chain Summit, http://www.blockchainsummit.io/
Honduras began creating land titles based on blockchain technology in May 2015. Gertrude Chavez-Freyfuss, “Honduras to build land title registry using bitcoin technology”, Reuters, May 15th, 2015, http://in.reuters.com/article/2015/05/15/usa-honduras-technology-idINKBN0O01V720150515
Visa, the world’s largest pay ment network, is launching a blockchain technology development team to bring secure digital finance to unbanked consumers. Giulio Prisco, “Visa to Deploy Blockchain Research Team in Bangalore, India”, Bitcoin Magazine, August 12th, 2015, https://bitcoinmagazine.com/21547/visa-deploy-blockchain-research-team-bangalore-india/
SOURCES
Issue 06: Blending the Best of People and Machines
The robotics market will grow 9.5% per year to US$66.9B by 2025. Military and industrial uses will be 60% of the total ($US41B). Commercial and personal uses will grow even faster. Alison Sander and Meldon Wolfgang, “The Rise of Robotics”, bcg.perspectives, August 27, 2014, https://www.bcgperspectives.com/content/articles/business_unit_strategy_innovation_rise_of_robotics/#
The number of Internet of Things sensors will grow from 14.8B in 2015 to 50B by 2020. “Connections Counter: The Internet of Everything in Motion,” The Network, July 29, 2013, http://newsroom.cisco.com/feature-content?ype=webcontent&articleId=1208342
There will be 200B Internet-connected things in 2030. “A Guide to the Internet of Things”, Intel Corp., accessed September 3, 2015, http://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/internet-of-things/infographics/guide-to-iot.html
Image, speech, and voice recognition are advancing quickly and may soon surpass human abilities. John Markoff, “Researchers Announce Advance in Image-Recognition Software,” The New York Times, November 17, 2014, http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/18/science/researchers-announce-breakthrough-in-content-recognition-software.html?_r=1
“The Revolutionary Technique That Quietly Changed Machine Vision Forever,” MIT Technology Review, September 9, 2014, http://www.technologyreview.com/view/530561/the-revolutionary-technique-that-quietly-changed-machine-vision-forever/
Robert McMillan, “Speech Recognition Gets Conversational”, Wall Street Journal – Digits, May 28, 2015, http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2015/05/28/speech-recognition-gets-conversational/
Tactile technology is improving rapidly due to research and development in robot-assisted medicine. Charm Labs – Collaborative Haptics and Robotics in Medicine, List of 2015 Publications, http://charm.stanford.edu/Main/Publications
The nascent virtual reality market will frow to US$30B in the next five years, while augmented reality will be a US$120B business by 2020. Eric Johnson, “Digi-Capital: Augmented Reality Like HoloLens to Outpace Virtual Reality Like Oculus,” Re/code, April 6, 2015, http://recode.net/2015/04/06/digi-capital-augmented-reality-like-hololens-to-outpace-virtual-reality-like-oculus/
Issue 07: Cybersecurity: Protecting a Hackable World
The following sources were cited in SAP Digital Futures Issue 07 Cybersecurity: Protecting a Hackable World 1999: “White hat” hackers predict the dangers of ubiquitous networking.
Craig Timber, “Net of Insecurity: A Disaster Foretold – And Ignored,” The Washington Post, June 22, 2015, http://www.washingtonpost.com/sf/business/2015/06/22/net-of-insecurity-part-3/
2012: New Internet Protocol allows 78 octillion Internet addresses—1 trillion for every grain of sand on earth. Kai Ryssdal, “We Have Some Catching Up to Do on Cyber-Security,” Marketplace, February 20, 2015, http://www.marketplace.org/topics/tech/big-book/we-have-some-catching-do-cyber-security
January 2014: Security pros uncover a spambot network of more than 100,000 smart devices, including a refrigerator. Michelle Starr, “Fridge Caught Sending Spam Emails in Botnet Attack,” C|NET, July 19, 2014, http://www.cnet.com/news/fridge-caught-sending-spam-emails-in-botnet-attack/
July 2015: Hackers prove they can remotely highjack a car. Andy Greenberg, “Hackers Remotely Kill a Jeep on the Highway—with Me in It,” Wired, July 21, 2015, http://www.wired.com/2015/07/hackers-remotely-kill-jeep-highway/
September 2015: Researchers find potential vulnerabilities in 68,000 medical devices. “Medical Devices Vulnerable to Hackers,” BBC News, September 29, 2015, http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-34390165
Issue 08: Virtual Reality Gets Real
TV weather reports adopted the first application of AR on TV in 1975. The term ‘virtual reality’ was first coined in 1989. Kiran Voleti, “50 Facts and Figures of Augmented Reality,” Real@Real, October 24, 2014, http://[email protected]/50-facts-figures-augmented-reality
The human eye only registers one ten-trillionth of the electromagnetic spectrum. David Eagleman, “Can we create new senses for humans?” TED2015, filmed March
2015, https://www.ted.com/talks/david_eagleman_can_we_create_new_senses_for_humans?language=en
Oculus Rift raised $2.5 million on Kickstarter in August 2012. Facebook bought the company for $2 billion 18 months later. Peter Diamandis, “From $2M to $2B in 18 Months: What Entrepreneurs Can Learn From Oculus VR,” Huffington Post, April 14, 2014, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/peter-diamandis/from-2m-to-2b-in-18-month_b_5147883.html
Overall, AR/VR revenues are predicted to reach $150 billion by 2020. Tim Merel, “Augmented And Virtual Reality To Hit $150 Billion, Disrupting Mobile By 2020,” TechCrunch, April 6, 2015, http://techcrunch.com/2015/04/06/augmented-and-virtual-reality-to-hit-150-billion-by-2020/#.yyyyffi:R0vA
By 2020,103 million automobiles could contain AR technology. “Augmented Reality: Envision a More Intelligent World,” Semico Research & Consulting, October 2012, http://www.semico.com/sites/default/files/TOC_MP105-12.pdf
Issue 09: Digital Medicine: Healing Better
Healthcare invests more in treatment than prevention; approximately 86 percent of U.S. health care spending is for chronic conditions. Chronic Diseases: The Leading Causes of Death and Disability in the United States, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, http://www.cdc.gov/chronicdisease/overview/
Remote patient monitoring for conditions like heart disease, asthma, and diabetes could save more than $200 billion. “The Digital Revolution Comes to US Healthcare,“ Goldman Sachs Global Investment, 2015, http://www.wageningenur.nl/upload_mm/0/f/3/8fe8684c-2a84-4965-9dce-550584aae48c_Internet%20of%20Things%205%20-%20Digital%20Revolution%20Comes%20to%20US%20Healtcare.pdf
Telehealth options (estimated to be a $25 billion market in 2015) for routine and psychological care could save $100 billion. “eVisits: The 21st Century Housecall,“ WSJ.com, March 6, 2014, http://deloitte.wsj.com/cio/2014/03/06/evisits-the-21st-century-house-call/
The global medical technology market is estimated to reach $513.5 billion by 2020, from $363.8 billion in 2013. “Deloitte 2015 Global life sciences outlook,” 2015, https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/global/Documents/Life-Sciences-Health-Care/gx-lshc-2015-life-sciences-report.pdf
In 2015, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved the first 3D printed drug. “First 3D-printed drug approved by FDA,“ CNN.com, August 4, 2015, http://money.cnn.com/2015/08/04/technology/fda-3d-printed-drug-epilepsy/
Issue 10: The Internet? You’re Swimming In It
The cost of adding self-driving technology to a vehicle: US$8K−$10K and dropping. 1 trillion sensors could be connected to the Internet by 2022, and 45 trillion in 20 years. Deep Shift: Technology Tipping Points and Societal Impact, World Economic Forum, Survey Report, September 2015 http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_GAC15_Technological_Tipping_Points_report_2015.pdf
Dr. Janusz Bryzsek, “Trillion Sensors Movement in Support of Abundance and Internet of Everything”, SensorsCon 2014, Santa Clara, CA, March 6, 2014 https://cseweb.ucsd.edu/classes/sp14/cse291-b/notes/Janusz_Bryzek_SensorsCon2014.pdf
Appliances and home automation will account for more than half of household Internet traffic by 2024. “Deep Shift: Technology Tipping Points and Societal Impact”, World Economic Forum, Survey Report, September 2015 http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_GAC15_Technological_Tipping_Points_report_2015.pdf
The first “smart city” with Internet-connected, automated roads, services, and utilities will emerge by 2026. Deep Shift: Technology Tipping Points and Societal Impact, World Economic Forum, Survey Report, September 2015 http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_GAC15_Technological_Tipping_Points_report_2015.pdf
Fabrics that can charge electronics — or incorporate them — already exist. Blaine Friedlander, “Nanotech transforms cotton fibers into modern marvel,” Cornell Chronicle, July 7, 2015, http://news.cornell.edu/stories/2015/07/nanotech-transforms-cotton-fibers-modern-marvel
Over 8 billion ambient intelligence smartphone apps will be downloaded in 2020. “Location-based Ambient Intelligence Is the Next Big Leap in Consumer Applications,“ ABI Research, March 4, 2015, https://www.abiresearch.com/analyst-insider/archive/111/
SourcesDigital Futures NEXTPREVIOUSHOME
© 2016 SAP SE or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. Information herein subject to change without notice.
Daniel WellersDigital Futures LeadSAP Marketing [email protected]
www.digitalistmag.com/digital-economy/digital-futures
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ABOUT DIGITAL FUTURES, PLEASE CONTACT:
Kai GoerlichThought Leadership and Digital FuturesSAP Marketing [email protected]
NO. 1 DIRECT YOUR DIGITAL FUTURE
NO. 2 WHERE WILL THE SELF-DRIVING CAR TAKE US?
NO. 3 DRONES: TOMORROW’S “I” IN THE SKY
NO. 4 MAKERS SHAKE UP MANUFACTURING
NO. 5 BITCOIN’S BLOCKCHAIN: A NEW MODEL FOR TRUST
NO. 6 BLENDING THE BEST OF PEOPLE AND MACHINES
NO. 7 CYBERSECURITY: PROTECTING A HACKABLE WORLD
NO. 8 VIRTUAL REALITY GETS REAL
NO. 9 DIGITAL MEDICINE: HEALING BETTER
NO. 10 ENVELOPED BY AMBIENT INTELLIGENCE
SOURCES