today’s economy & the role of federal lands...commodity production we define non-metro as...
TRANSCRIPT
Today’sEconomy&theRoleofFederalLands
1PhotocourtesyofChrisBoyer
Outline
2
PageEconomicrolesoffederallands 4Economiccontext– theU.S. 14Economiccontext– theWest 20Atheoryofruraldevelopment 33
Federallands&ruraleconomies 43
Federallands&politics 55
Slideshowversion3-24-17
3
Federallands
BureauofLandManagement23%
ForestService19%
NationalPark3%
Remainder:U.S.Fish&Wildlife&military,other
Allfederallands48%ofWest
Statelands6%
Rounded%s.Fed.Landsalsoincludemilitary,fish&wildlife.U.S.GeologicalSurvey,GapAnalysisProgram.2016.U.S.ProtectedAreasDatabase(PADUS)v.1.4
Economicrolesoffederallands
4
CommodityProduction
Wedefinenon-metroasrural.Metrocountiescontainacorepopulationof50,000ormorepeopleorare“outlying”countiesandtiedeconomicallytothecoreareasbylaborforcecommuting. Datafrom:U.S.DepartmentofCommerce.2016.BureauofEconomicAnalysis,RegionalEconomicAccounts,Washington,D.C.TableCA25N.Agriculturein2015represented3%oftotalpersonalincomeinthenon-metro,orruralWest.
Mining,oil,gas,timber
5%
PersonalIncomefromEmploymentinResourceExtraction,Non-MetroWest2015
5
Wildlife&Biodiversity
Photo:NationalParkServicehttp://www.nps.gov/arch/photosmultimedia/index.htm
6
Scenery
Photo:NationalParkServicehttp://www.nps.gov/arch/photosmultimedia/index.htm
7
Culture,Heritage
8
OutdoorRecreation$646billioninretailsales6.1millionjobs
$40billioninfederaltaxrevenues$40billioninstate/localtaxrevenues
IntheWest:
1.9milliondirectjobsinoutdoorrecreation(80%thesizeofconstructionsector)
95%ofwesternvotersvisitedfederallandsin2015
Federallandsrecreationresponsibleforatleast$51billioninvisitorexpenditures
The West is defined here as Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming. West-wide jobs numbers for comparison from: U.S. Department ofCommerce. 2016. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Accounts, Washington, D.C. Table CA25N. Outdoor recreation figures from: https://outdoorindustry.org/images/ore_reports/CO-colorado-outdoorrecreationeconomy-oia.pdf. Visitation to public lands from: https://www.coloradocollege.edu/dotAsset/5e3d4978-4cb7-4784-bf36-b086cf332fc9.pdf. Federal and expenditures from (page 22) of:http://www.coloradotpa.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/USFS-Econ-Impacts-Rec.pdf.
143millionAmericansparticipate
9
EcosystemServicesWaterpurification,erosion&floodcontrol,carbonstorage,climateregulation,pollination,medicine,etc.
Example:
NationalForests
Waterfor66millionpeoplein3,400communitiesworth$7.2billionannually
IntheWest:
NationalForestsprovide33%ofourwater
86%inWashingtonState
NationalForestfiguresfrom:https://www.fs.fed.us/managing-land/national-forests-grasslands/water-facts.Westfiguresfrom:https://www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/45417.Imagefrom:http://www.clipartpanda.com/clipart_images/watersheds-are-complex-22834047.
10
CommunityEconomicDevelopmentFederallands,asasetting,makeacommunityapleasantplacetolive&dobusiness.Retainpeople&business
11
ColoradoSprings
AmenityMigration
12
Federallandsattractpeople&business,movingforjobsANDlifestyle
CedarCity
RecruitTalent
RightNowTechnologies,basedinBozeman,Montana,advertisedBozeman'squalityoflifetoattractsoftwareengineers.ThisstrategyallowedthecompanytogrowtothepointwhereafewyearsagoitsoldtoOracleformorethan$1billion,andstilloperatesinBozeman.Forotherbusinessleaderquotes,see:https://headwaterseconomics.org/economic-development/trends-performance/west-is-best-value-of-public-lands/13 andhttp://www.businessformontanasoutdoors.com/. 13
“Ourqualityoflifeisdefinedbyourpubliclandsandaccesstothem.ThisgivesusandothertechcompaniesinMontanaadistinctcompetitiveadvantage.Wecanrecruitandretaintoptalentsuccessfullywithinandoutsidethestatebecauseoftheworld-classlandscapethatsurroundsus.”
LanceTrebesch CEO,TicketPrinting.com
Economiccontext
14
Let’sstartwiththeU.S.economy
U.S.economy
-4,659,400
-654,700
-475,000
-33,300
110,600
408,600
514,900
630,100
693,600
747,600
1,089,800
1,139,200
1,205,000
1,812,100
1,836,200
2,098,300
2,119,800
3,219,300
3,280,600
3,457,700
6,283,600
ManufacturingInformation
Farm employmentUtilities
Forestry, fishing, & related activities (.4%)Construction (1.3%)
Wholesale trade (1.7%)Management of companies & enterprises (2.1%)
Retail Trade (2.3%)Mining (2.4%)
Arts, entertainment, & recreation (3.6%)Transportation & warehousing (3.7%)
Government & government enterprises (3.9%)Finance & insurance (5.9%)Educational services (6.0%)
Other services, except public admin. (6.8%)Administrative & waste services (6.9%)
Professional & technical services (10.5%)Real estate & rental & leasing (10.7%)
Accommodation & food services (11.3%)Health care & social assistance (20.5%)
Change in U.S. Jobs 2000-2015(% of total growth in parenthesis)
U.S.DepartmentofCommerce.2016.BureauofEconomicAnalysis,RegionalEconomicInformationSystem,Washington,D.C.TableSA25N.
31millionnewjobs
>95%inservices
15
Mostjobgrowthinservices
U.S.changeinjobs2000-2015(%oftotalgrowthinparenthesis)
-4,659,400
-654,700
-475,000
-33,300
110,600
408,600
514,900
630,100
693,600
747,600
1,089,800
1,139,200
1,205,000
1,812,100
1,836,200
2,098,300
2,119,800
3,219,300
3,280,600
3,457,700
6,283,600
ManufacturingInformation
Farm employmentUtilities
Forestry, fishing, & related activities (.4%)Construction (1.3%)
Wholesale trade (1.7%)Management of companies & enterprises (2.1%)
Retail Trade (2.3%)Mining (2.4%)
Arts, entertainment, & recreation (3.6%)Transportation & warehousing (3.7%)
Government & government enterprises (3.9%)Finance & insurance (5.9%)Educational services (6.0%)
Other services, except public admin. (6.8%)Administrative & waste services (6.9%)
Professional & technical services (10.5%)Real estate & rental & leasing (10.7%)
Accommodation & food services (11.3%)Health care & social assistance (20.5%)
Change in U.S. Jobs 2000-2015(% of total growth in parenthesis)
16
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
$16,000
1948
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Pri
vate
Indu
stri
es F
ull &
Par
t-Ti
me
Jobs
(Tho
usan
ds)
Pri
vate
Indu
stri
es V
alue
Add
ed (B
illio
ns o
f 201
4 $s
)
Private Industries Industry Value Added vs. Employment, 1948-2014
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
1948
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10 20
12 20
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Pro
fess
iona
l, S
cien
tific
, And
Tec
hnic
al S
ervi
ces
Full
& P
art-
Tim
e Jo
bs
(Tho
usan
ds)
Pro
fess
iona
l, S
cien
tific
, And
Tec
hnic
al S
ervi
ces
Valu
e A
dded
(Bill
ions
of 2
014
$s)
Professional, Scientific, And Technical Services Industry Value Added vs. Employment, 1948-2014
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
1948
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10 20
12 20
14
Hea
lth C
are
And
Soc
ial A
ssis
tanc
e Fu
ll &
Par
t-Tim
e Jo
bs (T
hous
ands
)
Hea
lth C
are
And
Soc
ial A
ssis
tanc
e Va
lue
Add
ed (B
illio
ns o
f 201
4 $s
)
Health Care And Social Assistance Industry Value Added vs. Employment, 1948-2014
AllindustriesinU.S.
Professional,scientific&tech.services
Valueofproduction&jobstrackclosely
Healthcare
U.S.DepartmentofCommerce.2016.BureauofEconomicAnalysis,RegionalEconomicAccounts,Washington,D.C.TableCA25N andRegionalEconomicAccountshttps://www.bea.gov/regional/downloadzip.cfm.
Jobs
Value
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
1948
19
50 19
52 19
54 19
56 19
58 19
60 19
62 19
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02 20
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14
Man
ufac
turi
ng F
ull &
Par
t-Ti
me
Jobs
(Tho
usan
ds)
Man
ufac
turi
ng V
alue
Add
ed (B
illio
ns o
f 201
4 $s
) Manufacturing Industry Value Added vs. Employment, 1948-2014
Jobs
Value
Manufacturingisanexception
88%ofjoblossduetoautomation
FigureisforU.S.https://headwaterseconomics.org/economic-development/trends-performance/changing-role-manufacturing/Automationfigurefrom:HicksMJandDevaraj S.2015.TheMythandtheRealityofManufacturinginAmerica.Muncie,IN:CenterofBusinessandEconomicResearch,BallStateUniversity.http://conexus.cberdata.org/files/MfgReality.pdf.
Productivityhigherthanever,butwithfewerworkers
17
3.1%%
$33.17%
19.8%
3.2%%
$22.43%
18.7%
4.1%%
$20.04%
12.3%
Unemployment%rate%(Sept%2015)% Average%hourly%earnings% U.S.%jobs%(Milions)%
Professional,,Scien/fic,,&,Technical,Services, Health,&,Social,Assistance, Manufacturing,
FiguresforU.S.http://www.bls.gov/industriesataglance
18
Othersectorsoutperformingmanufacturing
Example:
3.1%%
$33.17%
19.8%
3.2%%
$22.43%
18.7%
4.1%%
$20.04%
12.3%
Unemployment%rate%(Sept%2015)% Average%hourly%earnings% U.S.%jobs%(Milions)%
Professional,,Scien/fic,,&,Technical,Services, Health,&,Social,Assistance, Manufacturing,
U.S.jobs(millions)Averagehourlyearnings
19FigureisforU.S..AdaptedfromWashingtonPost,Wonkblog.March10,2017.https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/03/10/the-people-who-were-left-behind-two-months-ago-are-still-left-behind/?utm_term=.6d19ba72044a
Workersproducemore,butwageshavenotkeptup
%gaininworkerproductivityvs.compensation,1948-2013
Economiccontext
20
TheWest
TheWestoutperformstherestofthecountry
Jobs
TheWEST
FordetailsontheWest’sperformancecomparedtotherestofthecountry,see:https://headwaterseconomics.org/economic-development/trends-performance/west-wide-summary/ 21
Westchangeinjobs2000-2015(%oftotalgrowthinparenthesis)
-591,364
-64,079
-43,079
-22,355
8,695
43,435
75,558
126,138
195,846
308,576
314,538
356,965
370,565
391,378
401,286
493,550
519,518
786,689
788,790
806,230
1,689,711
-1,000,000 -500,000 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000
ManufacturingInformation
Farm employmentConstruction
Utilities (.1%)Management of companies & enterprises (.6%)
Forestry, fishing, & related activities (1.0%)Mining (1.6%)
Wholesale trade (2.6%)Arts, entertainment, & recreation (4.0%)
Transportation & warehousing (4.1%)Finance & insurance (4.6%)
Government & government enterprises (4.8%)Retail Trade (5.1%)
Educational services (5.2%)Other services, except public admin. (6.4%)
Administrative & waste services (6.8%)Accommodation & food services (10.2%)
Real estate & rental & leasing (10.3%)Professional & technical services (10.5%)
Health care & social assistance (22.0%)
8.4millionnewjobs
90%inservices
U.S.DepartmentofCommerce.2016.BureauofEconomicAnalysis,RegionalEconomicInformationSystem,Washington,D.C.TableSA25N. 22
Mostjobgrowthinservices
-4,659,400
-654,700
-475,000
-33,300
110,600
408,600
514,900
630,100
693,600
747,600
1,089,800
1,139,200
1,205,000
1,812,100
1,836,200
2,098,300
2,119,800
3,219,300
3,280,600
3,457,700
6,283,600
ManufacturingInformation
Farm employmentUtilities
Forestry, fishing, & related activities (.4%)Construction (1.3%)
Wholesale trade (1.7%)Management of companies & enterprises (2.1%)
Retail Trade (2.3%)Mining (2.4%)
Arts, entertainment, & recreation (3.6%)Transportation & warehousing (3.7%)
Government & government enterprises (3.9%)Finance & insurance (5.9%)Educational services (6.0%)
Other services, except public admin. (6.8%)Administrative & waste services (6.9%)
Professional & technical services (10.5%)Real estate & rental & leasing (10.7%)
Accommodation & food services (11.3%)Health care & social assistance (20.5%)
Change in U.S. Jobs 2000-2015(% of total growth in parenthesis)
TheWEST
West personalincomebysource,2015
Datafrom:U.S.DepartmentofCommerce.2016.BureauofEconomicAnalysis,RegionalEconomicAccounts,Washington,D.C.TableCA25N
36.1%
1.4% 11.0%
46.8%
12.4% Non-Labor: retirement,investments,etc.
Extractive:mining,oil,gas,timber
Manufacturing,construction,agriculture
Services:health,engineering,education,etc.
Government
45.8%
4.7%
10.2%
28.0%
14.8% Non-Labor: retirement,investments,etc.
Extractive:mining,oil,gas,timber
Manufacturing,construction,agriculture
Services:health,engineering,education,etc.Government
45.8%
4.7%
10.2%
28.0%
14.8% Non-Labor: retirement,investments,etc.
Extractive:mining,oil,gas,timber
Manufacturing,construction,agriculture
Services:health,engineering,education,etc.Government
45.8%
4.7%
10.2%
28.0%
14.8% Non-Labor: retirement,investments,etc.
Extractive:mining,oil,gas,timber
Manufacturing,construction,agriculture
Services:health,engineering,education,etc.Government
45.8%
4.7%
10.2%
28.0%
14.8% Non-Labor: retirement,investments,etc.
Extractive:mining,oil,gas,timber
Manufacturing,construction,agriculture
Services:health,engineering,education,etc.Government
45.8%
4.7%
10.2%
28.0%
14.8% Non-Labor: retirement,investments,etc.
Extractive:mining,oil,gas,timber
Manufacturing,construction,agriculture
Services:health,engineering,education,etc.Government
23
RuralWest– verysimilar;personalincomebysource,2015
Wedefineruralasnon-metro.Metrocountiescontainacorepopulationof50,000ormorepeopleorare“outlying”countiesandtiedeconomicallytothecoreareasbylaborforcecommuting.Datafrom:U.S.DepartmentofCommerce.2016.BureauofEconomicAnalysis,RegionalEconomicAccounts,Washington,D.C.TableCA25N.Agriculturein2015represented3%oftotalpersonalincomeinthenon-metro,orruralWest.
45.8%
4.7%
10.2%
28.0%
14.8% Non-Labor: retirement,investments,etc.
Extractive:mining,oil,gas,timber
Manufacturing,construction,agriculture
Services:health,engineering,education,etc.
Government
45.8%
4.7%
10.2%
28.0%
14.8% Non-Labor: retirement,investments,etc.
Extractive:mining,oil,gas,timber
Manufacturing,construction,agriculture
Services:health,engineering,education,etc.Government
45.8%
4.7%
10.2%
28.0%
14.8% Non-Labor: retirement,investments,etc.
Extractive:mining,oil,gas,timber
Manufacturing,construction,agriculture
Services:health,engineering,education,etc.Government
45.8%
4.7%
10.2%
28.0%
14.8% Non-Labor: retirement,investments,etc.
Extractive:mining,oil,gas,timber
Manufacturing,construction,agriculture
Services:health,engineering,education,etc.Government
45.8%
4.7%
10.2%
28.0%
14.8% Non-Labor: retirement,investments,etc.
Extractive:mining,oil,gas,timber
Manufacturing,construction,agriculture
Services:health,engineering,education,etc.Government
45.8%
4.7%
10.2%
28.0%
14.8% Non-Labor: retirement,investments,etc.
Extractive:mining,oil,gas,timber
Manufacturing,construction,agriculture
Services:health,engineering,education,etc.Government
24
25
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Millionsof2015$s
Government Non-Labor Non-Services Services
PersonalincomeintheWest
ServicesDoctors,engineers,lawyers,accountants,waiters,barbers,etc.
Non-Labor Retirement,investments,SocialSecurity,Medicare,Medicaid,etc.
Government
Non-Servicesredline
Local,state,federal
Construction,manufacturing,mining,oil&gas,agriculture,etc.
http://headwaterseconomics.org/dataviz/west-wide-atlas
26
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Millionsof2015$s
Government Non-Labor Non-Services Services
Services
Whysomuchgrowthinservices?>90%ofLABORincomegrowthinlastdecade Demandhasincreased:
Healthcare,insuranceHightechproductsLeisure,entertainment
Supplyhasincreased:
Newindustries(software)
Somefunctionsonceinternalto“goodsproduction”nowoutsourced&countedasservices(e.g.accounting)
Servicesnothighlyautomated(thewaymanufacturingis)
Servicesare50%oflaborincomein2015.Figureisintermsoflaborincome,asubsetoftotalpersonalincome;theremainderisnon-laborincome.U.S.DepartmentofCommerce.2016.BureauofEconomicAnalysis,RegionalEconomicAccounts,Washington,D.C.TableCA25N.
27
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Millionsof2015$s
Government Non-Labor Non-Services Services
Non-Labor
Non-laboris36%ofTPIin2015.Figureisintermsoftotalpersonalincome(laborplusnon-laborincome).U.S.DepartmentofCommerce.2016.BureauofEconomicAnalysis,RegionalEconomicAccounts,Washington,D.C.TableCA25NForathoroughanalysisofthethreetypesofnon-laborincome,see:https://headwaterseconomics.org/economic-development/trends-performance/non-labor/
Whysomuchgrowthinnon-laborincome?>55%ofTOTALPERSONALINCOMEgrowthinlastdecade
Three typesofnon-laborincome:
InvestmentRelated(dividends,interest&rent)
AgeRelated(retirement,Medicare,socialsecurity,etc.)
Hardship-related(Medicaid,foodstamps,etc.)
BabyBoomers&thestockmarket
Investment-related20%oftotalpersonalincomeintheWest
(Dividends,Interest&Rent)
U.S.DepartmentofCommerce.2016.BureauofEconomicAnalysis,RegionalEconomicAccounts,Washington,D.C.
28
Age-related8%oftotalpersonalincomeintheWest
(SocialSecurity,Medicare)
29Lawson,M.,R.Rasker,andP.Gude.2014.“TheImportanceofNon-LaborIncome:AnAnalysisofSocioeconomicPerformanceinWesternCountiesbyTypeofNon-LaborIncome.”JournalofRegionalAnalysisandPolicy.44(2):175-190.
Hardship-related5.7%oftotalpersonalincomeintheWest
(Medicaid,incomemaintenance,unemploymentcompensation)
Foodstampimagefrom:http://publicradioeast.org/post/snap-food-stamps-require-20-hour-work-week
30
Non-laborincomewillcontinuetogrow
Injustfiveyears1/4ofuswillbe55yearsorolder
75millionareBabyBoomers,bornbetween1946and1964.By2020,25%ofallworkerswillbeatleast55yearsold andeverymonth,morethanaquarter-millionAmericansturn65.Yet,only17%ofBabyBoomersarecurrentlyretired.http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-baby-boomers-retirement-means-for-the-u-s-economy/. 31
BabyBoomerscontrol80%ofthefinancialassetsofthecountry
32
Westerncountiesdependmostlyonservices&non-laborincome
> 10%oflaborearningsfrom:
Timber 1%ofallcountiesMining 12%ofallcounties(2%oil&gas)
> 50%oflaborearningsfrom:
Services 41%ofallcounties
> 50%oftotalpersonalincomefrom:
Non-Labor 25%ofallcounties
Datafor2015.Thereare414countiesintheWest,ofwhich278arenon-metro.From2000-2015,80%ofcountiesaddedpopulation,19%lost.Duringthattime74%ofnon-metrocountiesgrewwhile25%lostpopulation.Miningincludesoil,gas,coal,minerals.2%ofcountieshave>10%oflaborearningsfrompeoplewhoworkinoilandgas.Intermsofnon-laborincome:48%ofcountieswith>20%ofTPIfrominvestmentincome.70%ofcountieshave>10%ofTPIfromage-relatedincome;and21%have>10%ofTPIfromhardship-relatedsources. Source:U.S.DepartmentofCommerce.2016.BureauofEconomicAnalysis,RegionalEconomicAccounts,Washington,D.C.TableCA05.
Atheoryofrural
development
33
Touristsneedaccessbyair:nearly4outof5airtripsareforleisure(79%)
Airaccessbenefitstherestoftheeconomy;e.g.techworkerstravelbyair60-400%morethangeneralworkforce
4outof5statisticfromUSTravel.org https://www.ustravel.org/answersheet.Techworkerstatfrom:Kasarda,J.D.,2000a.Logisticsandtheriseofaerotropolis.RealEstateIssues27(4),43–49.andKasarda,J.D.,2000b.Aerotropolis:airport-driven urban development.Cities inthe 21stCentury.UrbanLand Institute,Washington,D.C.,pp.32–41.
Accesstomajorpopulationcentersisaprincipledriverofeconomicopportunity
34
Agriculture&resourceextraction
Tourism Transportationinfrastructure
Diverseeconomy:
Agriculture,resourceindustries,tourism,plus
high-tech
footloosebusinesses
investmentincome,retirement,semi-retirement
building,healthcare,retail,etc.
AMENITYMIGRATION
Overtime,asacommunitydiversifiesfromresourceindustriestoincludetourism,theeconomywillexpandiftransportationinfrastructurealsoexpands
Thereare3typesofcountiesMETRO(&commutershed)HigherwagesLessvolatilityMorehigh-wageservicesFastest-growingYoungerMoreeducated
RURAL&ISOLATEDLowestwagesMostvolatilityFewhigh-wageservicesSlowest-growingOlder&agingLesseducated
CONNECTED(viaairports)Overtime,performmorelikeMETRO
97%ofpopulationlivesineitherMETROorCONNECTED
https://headwaterseconomics.org/economic-development/trends-performance/three-wests-explained/
36
75%ofalljobsareconcentratedincities
https://headwaterseconomics.org/economic-development/trends-performance/urban-areas-drive-economic-growth-in-the-west/
37
92%Westliveinmetroareas
75%restofcountry
TheWestisthemosturbanpartofthecountry
MichaelStratton,usedbypermission
38
“Foroveracenturypunditshavebeenpredictingthatnewformsofcommunicationwouldmakeurbanlifeirrelevant.
Todefeatthehumanneedforface-to-facecontacts,ourtechnologicalmarvelswouldneedtodefeatmillionsofyearsofhumanevolutionthathasmadeusintomachinesforlearningfromthepeoplenexttous.”
39
Theadvantageofcitiesisthesocialnetwork
“Inthetwentiethcentury,competitionwasaboutaccumulatingphysicalcapital.
Todayitisaboutattractingthebesthumancapital.”
40
Humancapitaliscritical
Goodpayingjobsexist,butinterstatemobilityamongAmericanhasdeclined.Reasonswhyhere:https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2896309
FigureisforU.S.in2014fromU.S.Dept.Labor,BureauofLaborStatistics,CurrentPopulationSurvey. 41
Highereducationlevelsmean
higherwageslowerunemployment &
488
668
741
792
1,101
1,326
1,639
1,591
Less than a
high school diploma
High school diploma
Some college,
no degree
Associate's degree
Bachelor's degree
Master's degree
Professional degree
Doctoral degree
Median weekly earnings in 2014 ($)
9.0
6.0
6.0
4.5
3.5
2.8
1.9
2.1
Unemployment rate in 2014 (%)
All workers: 5% All workers: $839
Earnings and Unemployment Rates by Educational Attainment
Note: Data are for persons age 25 and over. Earnings are for full-time wage and salary workers.
Source: Current Population Survey, U.S. Department of Labor, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
488
668
741
792
1,101
1,326
1,639
1,591
Less than a
high school diploma
High school diploma
Some college,
no degree
Associate's degree
Bachelor's degree
Master's degree
Professional degree
Doctoral degree
Median weekly earnings in 2014 ($)
9.0
6.0
6.0
4.5
3.5
2.8
1.9
2.1
Unemployment rate in 2014 (%)
All workers: 5% All workers: $839
Earnings and Unemployment Rates by Educational Attainment
Note: Data are for persons age 25 and over. Earnings are for full-time wage and salary workers.
Source: Current Population Survey, U.S. Department of Labor, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
488
668
741
792
1,101
1,326
1,639
1,591
Less than a
high school diploma
High school diploma
Some college,
no degree
Associate's degree
Bachelor's degree
Master's degree
Professional degree
Doctoral degree
Median weekly earnings in 2014 ($)
9.0
6.0
6.0
4.5
3.5
2.8
1.9
2.1
Unemployment rate in 2014 (%)
All workers: 5% All workers: $839
Earnings and Unemployment Rates by Educational Attainment
Note: Data are for persons age 25 and over. Earnings are for full-time wage and salary workers.
Source: Current Population Survey, U.S. Department of Labor, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
SUMMARY:theeconomyoftheWest
Veryurban
Urban&ruralwithairportsdobetter
Resourcedependenceisrare
Growthinservices&non-laborincome&
Humancapitaliskey
Whatroledofederalpubliclandsplay?42
Federallands&
ruraleconomies
43
44
Whatistheeconomicperformanceofruralcountieswithfederallands?
45
20%
51%
90%
57%
97%
157%
223%
61%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
Population Employment PersonalIncome PerCapitaIncome
Percentchangesinsocioeconomicperformanceinnon-metrowesterncountiesinthetop25thandbottom25thpercentilesofproportionofFEDERALland,
1970-2015.
Countieswithshareoffederallandsinthebottom25thpercentile Countieswithshareoffederallandsinthetop25thpercentile
Ruralisdefinedasnon-metro.Allincomefiguresadjustedforinflation.https://headwaterseconomics.org/public-lands/federal-lands-performance/
Countieswithmorefederallandsgrowfaster
Averagegrowth1970-2015
Mostfederallands
Fewfederallands
20%
51%
90%
57%
97%
157%
223%
61%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
Population Employment PersonalIncome PerCapitaIncome
Percentchangesinsocioeconomicperformanceinnon-metrowesterncountiesinthetop25thandbottom25thpercentilesofproportionofFEDERALland,
1970-2015.
Countieswithshareoffederallandsinthebottom25thpercentile Countieswithshareoffederallandsinthetop25thpercentile
20%
51%
90%
57%
97%
157%
223%
61%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
Population Employment PersonalIncome PerCapitaIncome
Percentchangesinsocioeconomicperformanceinnon-metrowesterncountiesinthetop25thandbottom25thpercentilesofproportionofFEDERALland,
1970-2015.
Countieswithshareoffederallandsinthebottom25thpercentile Countieswithshareoffederallandsinthetop25thpercentile
Top25th percentileBottom25th percentile
Countyshareoffederallandinruralwesterncounties:
Population Employment PersonalIncome PerCapitaIncome
46Seeinteractivedatavisualization:https://headwaterseconomics.org/dataviz/federal-lands-performance/
Growthcouldbebecauseofrecreation,timber,minerals,energy,services,migration,non-laborincome,homebuilding,medical,etc.
Top25thfederallands
Bottom25thfederallands
25%offederallandsarePROTECTED
FederallandsintheWest:346millionacres
Protected (Nat.Park,Wilderness,N.Monument,etc.)
25%
Somewhatprotected(WildernessStudy,Roadless)
14%
MultipleUse
61%
47
Protectedincludes:NationalParksandPreserves(NPS),Wilderness(NPS,FWS,FS,BLM),NationalConservationAreas(BLM),NationalMonuments(NPS,FS,BLM),NationalRecreationAreas(NPS,FS,BLM),NationalWildandScenicRivers(NPS,FS,BLM),WaterfowlProduction Areas(FWS),WildlifeManagementAreas(FWS),ResearchNaturalAreas(FS,BLM),AreasofCriticalEnvironmentalConcern(BLM),andNationalWildlifeRefuges(FWS).
Somewhatprotectedincludes:WildernessStudyAreas(NPS,FWS,FS,BLM),InventoriedRoadlessAreas(FS).
MultipleuseincludesPublicDomainLands(BLM),O&CLands(BLM),NationalForestsandGrasslands(FS).
Source:U.S.GeologicalSurvey,GapAnalysisProgram.2016.ProtectedAreasDatabaseoftheUnitedStates(PADUS)version1.4
(non-military)
48
CountieswithmorePROTECTEDfederallandsgrowfaster
Mostfederalands
Fewfederalands
34%
72%
108%
54%
89%
169%
252%
73%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
Population Employment PersonalIncome PerCapitaIncome
Percentchangesinsocioeconomicperformanceinnon-metrowesterncountiesinthetop25thandbottom25thpercentilesofproportionofprotectedfederalland,1970-2015.
Countieswithshareofprotectedfederallandsinthebottom25thpercentile Countieswithshareofprotectedfederallandsinthetop25thpercentile
Mostprotectedfederallands
Leastprotectedfederallands
Ruralisdefinedasnon-metro.Allincomefiguresadjustedforinflation.https://headwaterseconomics.org/public-lands/federal-lands-performance/
Averagegrowth1970-2015
20%
51%
90%
57%
97%
157%
223%
61%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
Population Employment PersonalIncome PerCapitaIncome
Percentchangesinsocioeconomicperformanceinnon-metrowesterncountiesinthetop25thandbottom25thpercentilesofproportionofFEDERALland,
1970-2015.
Countieswithshareoffederallandsinthebottom25thpercentile Countieswithshareoffederallandsinthetop25thpercentile
Top25th percentileBottom25th percentile
CountyshareofPROTECTEDfederallandinruralwesterncounties:
34%
72%
108%
54%
89%
169%
252%
73%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
Population Employment PersonalIncome PerCapitaIncome
Percentchangesinsocioeconomicperformanceinnon-metrowesterncountiesinthetop25thandbottom25thpercentilesofproportionofprotectedfederalland,1970-2015.
Countieswithshareofprotectedfederallandsinthebottom25thpercentile Countieswithshareofprotectedfederallandsinthetop25thpercentile
Population Employment PersonalIncome PerCapitaIncome
49
RuralcountieswithhighlevelofPROTECTEDhavefasterpersonalincomegrowth
AverageTotalPersonalIncomeGrowth1970-2015
Ruralisdefinedasnon-metro.https://headwaterseconomics.org/wp-content/uploads/Methods-federal-lands-performance.pdf.
$248,136
$1,005,575
$209,502
$547,535
$0
$200,000
$400,000
$600,000
$800,000
$1,000,000
$1,200,000
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
2015
Counties withshareofprotected federallandsinthetop 25thpercentileCounties withshareofprotected federallandsinthebottom 25thpercentile
Top25th percentile
Bottom25th percentile
CountyshareofPROTECTEDfederalland:
In2015$,x1000
50
Protectedfederallandsexplainpartoftherelativesizeofpercapitaincomeforruralcounties
Example
https://headwaterseconomics.org/public-lands/protected-lands/protected-public-lands-increase-per-capita-income/andRasker,R.,P.Gude,andM.Delorey.2013.“TheEffectofProtectedFederalLandsonEconomicProsperityintheNon-metropolitanWest.”JournalofRegionalAnalysisandPolicy.43(2):110-122.
Example
Relativetootherfactors,includingmigration,education,age-relatednon-laborincome,elevation,airporttraveltime,resourcedependence&others.
Foreach100,000acresofWilderness,NationalPark,NationalMonumentinacountythePerCapitaIncomeincreases$4,360
51
$0$436
$2,180
$4,360
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
0acres 10,000acres 50,000acres 100,000acres
MeanIncreasein
PerCapita
Income
ProtectedPublicLands
IfcountiesA&Bwereidenticalineveryway,butcountyAhada50,000acresofprotectedpubliclandandcountyBhadnone,youwouldexpectincomeincountyAtobeonaverage$2,180higherperperson.
https://headwaterseconomics.org/public-lands/protected-lands/protected-public-lands-increase-per-capita-income/andRasker,R.,P.Gude,andM.Delorey.2013.“TheEffectofProtectedFederalLandsonEconomicProsperityintheNon-metropolitanWest.”JournalofRegionalAnalysisandPolicy.43(2):110-122
NationalMonuments:growthbefore&afterdesignation
Theaboveareexamples.Toseehoweachmonumentperformed,see:https://headwaterseconomics.org/dataviz/national-monuments/
17 National Monuments >10,000 acres & designated in 1982 or later – economy grew in each
Does not imply cause & effect, but proves no decline in economy
52
Cascade-SiskiyouDesignated:2000
GrandCanyonParashantDesignated:2000
GrandStaircase-EscalanteDesignated:1996
53
IntheWEST
104millionvisitorsspent$6.7billion
creating104,000jobs&
$3.7billioninlaborincome
NationalParkscreatejobs
IntheU.S.307millionvisitorsspent$16.9billion,creating293,300jobs&$11.1billioninlaborincomehttps://www.nps.gov/subjects/socialscience/vse.htm andhttps://headwaterseconomics.org/public-lands/protected-lands/economic-impact-of-national-parks/
54
Retireesmigratetowesterncountieswithprotectedpubliclands
U.S.DepartmentofCommerce.2016.CensusBureau,PopulationDivision,Washington,D.C.ForamorethoroughexplanationofmethodsusedcontactRayRaskerray@headwaterseconomics.org.
Mostprotectedfederallands
LeastProtectedfederallands
Federallands&
politics
55
“Itisourgoaltogettheloggerbacktologging,togettherancherbacktoranching,togettheminerbacktomining,thefarmerbacktofarming— andtojump-startthiseconomyinHarneyCounty.”
AmmonBundyMalheurWildlifeRefuge
PhotoAP/RickBowmer viahttp://www.salon.com/2016/01/09/ammon_bundy_is_not_a_terrorist_the_authorities_are_waiting_out_the_militia_just_as_they_should_do_with_black_lives_matter_protesters/
56
PartsoftheruralWestarebeingleftbehind
57
Westernsawmillsandtimberproduction
ManufacturingautomationalsoimpactsruralWesterncounties
InOregon,themosttimber-dependentstate,timberharvestsincreasedby50%between2009&2013,whiletimberemploymentincreasedby1%
ORtimberharvest:BureauofBusinessandEconomicResearch,UniversityofMontana:http://www.bber.umt.edu/FIR/HarvestOR.aspx.Lumberandwoodproductsmanufacturingemploymentfrom:U.S.DepartmentofCommerce.2016.BureauofEconomicAnalysis,RegionalEconomicAccounts,Washington,D.C.TableSA25N.Figureshowingtherelationshipbetweensawmillproductionandmillsadaptedfrom:OregonOfficeofEconomicAnalysis.WoodProductsProductivity,anUpdate.https://oregoneconomicanalysis.com/2012/01/26/wood-products-productivity-an-update/.
58
Rural(Non-Metro)
Urban(Metro) U.S.
Families belowpoverty 9.4% 11.9% 11.5%
Households receiving:
SupplementalS.Security(welfare) 4.8% 5.3% 5.3%
Foodstamps 9.8% 10.9% 13%
Retirementincome 22.8% 16.1% 17.8%
SocialSecurity 36.4% 26% 29.3%
%population65yrs.or older 17.3% 12.2% 14.1%
Rateofjobgrowth2000-2015 12% 21% 15%
Ave.earnings/job2015 $44,336 $62,338 $58,228
Ruralwesterncountyeconomicsaffectspolitics
lesspoverty
but…..
older&relymoreonretirement$
slowerjobgrowth
Ruralcountieshave:
U.S.DepartmentofCommerce.2016.CensusBureau,AmericanCommunitySurveyOffice,Washington,D.C.;U.S.DepartmentofCommerce.2000.CensusBureau,SystemsSupportDivision,Washington,D.C.Jobfiguresfrom:U.S.DepartmentofCommerce.2016.BureauofEconomicAnalysis,RegionalEconomicAccounts,Washington,D.C.TableCA30.Someotherindicatorsshowlittledifference:UnemploymentrateApril2017(rural5.6%,urban5%).%pop.Growthfrommigration2000-2015(rural35%,urban39%).
lowerwages
59https://headwaterseconomics.org/dataviz/west-wide-atlas/ 68of413countieslostjobsfrom2005- 2015
Jobgrowthisnotevenlydistributed
16%ofcountieslostjobsinthelastdecade
Ruralisolatedcountiesperformworsethanthoseconnectedviaairtravel
60http://brilliantmaps.com/2016-county-election-map/.“Redvs.BluePoliticalDivideMayReallyBeAboutYoungvs.Old”http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/red-vs-blue-political-divide-may-really-be-about-young-n725651
Aredifferencesinjobgrowthreflectedinthe2016presidentialelection?
TrumpClinton
Oraretheyalsoareflectionofruralcountiesbeingolder,witholdervotersfavoringTrump?
61
Notsurprisingly,tensionsriseonallsides
62
POLL:Westernersvisitpubliclandthemost
Visitedinthelastyear
West
U.S.
93% 78%
17%ofwesternersvisitedmorethan20times,comparedto4%forU.S.
2016surveysbyDaveMetz/Fairbank,Maslin,Maullin,Metz$Associates,LoriWeigel/PublicOpinionStrategies.
63
POLL:Mostbelievefederalpubliclandshelpeconomy
1 2 3
Helpsoureconomy
Hurts
Haslittleimpact
19%
72%6%
2016surveysbyDaveMetz/Fairbank,Maslin,Maullin,Metz$Associates,LoriWeigel/PublicOpinionStrategies.
64
protectcleanwater,air,wildlifewhileprovidingaccesstonationalpubliclands
68%
58% stronglyopposeturningfederallandstostates(33%support)
80% NationalMonuments- keepthemthatway
75% conservationofpubliclandsatopissuewhendecidingonacandidate
supportLand&WaterConservationFund75%
POLL:Westernerssupportconservationoffederallands
ColoradoCollege,StateoftherockiesProject.https://www.coloradocollege.edu/other/stateoftherockies/conservationinthewest/2017/2017SORPollReleasePresentation.pdf.BasedonJan.2017pollinginMT,WY,NV,UT,CO,AZ,andNM.
Jan.3,2017.https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/01/03/house-gop-rules-change-would-make-it-easier-to-sell-off-federal-land/?utm_term=.480ab9240a70Jan.4,2017http://www.greatfallstribune.com/story/news/local/2017/01/04/zinke-vote-federal-land-comes-fire/96171020Fromhttps://zinke.house.gov/issues/public-lands“Iwillnottoleratesellingourpubliclands.” Jan.17,2017https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/17/us/politics/ryan-zinke-interior-secretary.htm.Rep.Chaffetz’s billproposedtosell3.3millionacresoffedland.http://www.idahostatesman.com/news/local/news-columns-blogs/letters-from-the-west/article130291054.html 65
Federallandsareinthenews
Feb.16,2017.http://www.sltrib.com/home/4952414-155/outdoor-retailer-convention-leaving-utah“Herbert”intheheadlinereferstoUtah’sGovernorGaryHerbert. 66
Generated$45millionforSaltLakeCity
68
RESOURCESHeadwatersEconomics:https://headwaterseconomics.org/
Freeanalyticaltools:https://headwaterseconomics.org/tools/
Publiclands:https://headwaterseconomics.org/topic/public-lands/
Federallands:liabilityorasset:https://headwaterseconomics.org/public-lands/federal-lands-performance/
Thevalueofpubliclands:https://headwaterseconomics.org/public-lands/public-lands-research/
NationalMonuments:https://headwaterseconomics.org/dataviz/national-monuments/
NationalParks:https://headwaterseconomics.org/public-lands/protected-lands/economic-impact-of-national-parks/
Economicdevelopment:https://headwaterseconomics.org/topic/economic-development/
Localstudies:https://headwaterseconomics.org/topic/economic-development/local-studies/
ThreeWests:https://headwaterseconomics.org/dataviz/three-wests/
Trailsbenefitslibrary: https://headwaterseconomics.org/trail/
ForhighresolutioncopiesofanyslidepleasecontactRayRaskerray@headwaterseconomics.org or406570-7044
Jakus,P.2016.WhatDoestheQualityofPublicLandsImplyforFederalLandTransfers?WesternPolicyBrief.July.http://wrdc.usu.edu/files/publications/publication/pub__3361871.pdf. 69
Caveats
Federallands=moregrowthdoesnotimplycause&effect
But,noevidencethatpubliclands,orconservation,hurtslocaleconomies
Publiclandamenitiesareimportant,butnotsufficient
Alsoneeded:AccesstopopulationcentersEducationDiverseeconomy
Somedifferencesineconomicperformancemayalsobeafunctionoftopographyandhistoricallanduse:communitiesdominatedbyflat,arablelandtendtodependmoreonagriculture,andarenotdoingaswellintheruralWest.Westernlandsunsuitableforagriculturearemorelikelytohavealargeshareoffederalland,whichinsomeplaceshasspurredmorediverseeconomicactivity.