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Today’sEconomy&theRoleofFederalLands
1PhotocourtesyofChrisBoyer
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Outline
2
PageEconomicrolesoffederallands 4Economiccontext– theU.S. 14Economiccontext– theWest 20Atheoryofruraldevelopment 33
Federallands&ruraleconomies 43
Federallands&politics 55
Slideshowversion3-24-17
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3
Federallands
BureauofLandManagement23%
ForestService19%
NationalPark3%
Remainder:U.S.Fish&Wildlife&military,other
Allfederallands48%ofWest
Statelands6%
Rounded%s.Fed.Landsalsoincludemilitary,fish&wildlife.U.S.GeologicalSurvey,GapAnalysisProgram.2016.U.S.ProtectedAreasDatabase(PADUS)v.1.4
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Economicrolesoffederallands
4
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CommodityProduction
Wedefinenon-metroasrural.Metrocountiescontainacorepopulationof50,000ormorepeopleorare“outlying”countiesandtiedeconomicallytothecoreareasbylaborforcecommuting. Datafrom:U.S.DepartmentofCommerce.2016.BureauofEconomicAnalysis,RegionalEconomicAccounts,Washington,D.C.TableCA25N.Agriculturein2015represented3%oftotalpersonalincomeinthenon-metro,orruralWest.
Mining,oil,gas,timber
5%
PersonalIncomefromEmploymentinResourceExtraction,Non-MetroWest2015
5
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Wildlife&Biodiversity
Photo:NationalParkServicehttp://www.nps.gov/arch/photosmultimedia/index.htm
6
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Scenery
Photo:NationalParkServicehttp://www.nps.gov/arch/photosmultimedia/index.htm
7
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Culture,Heritage
8
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OutdoorRecreation$646billioninretailsales6.1millionjobs
$40billioninfederaltaxrevenues$40billioninstate/localtaxrevenues
IntheWest:
1.9milliondirectjobsinoutdoorrecreation(80%thesizeofconstructionsector)
95%ofwesternvotersvisitedfederallandsin2015
Federallandsrecreationresponsibleforatleast$51billioninvisitorexpenditures
The West is defined here as Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming. West-wide jobs numbers for comparison from: U.S. Department ofCommerce. 2016. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Accounts, Washington, D.C. Table CA25N. Outdoor recreation figures from: https://outdoorindustry.org/images/ore_reports/CO-colorado-outdoorrecreationeconomy-oia.pdf. Visitation to public lands from: https://www.coloradocollege.edu/dotAsset/5e3d4978-4cb7-4784-bf36-b086cf332fc9.pdf. Federal and expenditures from (page 22) of:http://www.coloradotpa.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/USFS-Econ-Impacts-Rec.pdf.
143millionAmericansparticipate
9
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EcosystemServicesWaterpurification,erosion&floodcontrol,carbonstorage,climateregulation,pollination,medicine,etc.
Example:
NationalForests
Waterfor66millionpeoplein3,400communitiesworth$7.2billionannually
IntheWest:
NationalForestsprovide33%ofourwater
86%inWashingtonState
NationalForestfiguresfrom:https://www.fs.fed.us/managing-land/national-forests-grasslands/water-facts.Westfiguresfrom:https://www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/45417.Imagefrom:http://www.clipartpanda.com/clipart_images/watersheds-are-complex-22834047.
10
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CommunityEconomicDevelopmentFederallands,asasetting,makeacommunityapleasantplacetolive&dobusiness.Retainpeople&business
11
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ColoradoSprings
AmenityMigration
12
Federallandsattractpeople&business,movingforjobsANDlifestyle
CedarCity
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RecruitTalent
RightNowTechnologies,basedinBozeman,Montana,advertisedBozeman'squalityoflifetoattractsoftwareengineers.ThisstrategyallowedthecompanytogrowtothepointwhereafewyearsagoitsoldtoOracleformorethan$1billion,andstilloperatesinBozeman.Forotherbusinessleaderquotes,see:https://headwaterseconomics.org/economic-development/trends-performance/west-is-best-value-of-public-lands/13 andhttp://www.businessformontanasoutdoors.com/. 13
“Ourqualityoflifeisdefinedbyourpubliclandsandaccesstothem.ThisgivesusandothertechcompaniesinMontanaadistinctcompetitiveadvantage.Wecanrecruitandretaintoptalentsuccessfullywithinandoutsidethestatebecauseoftheworld-classlandscapethatsurroundsus.”
LanceTrebesch CEO,TicketPrinting.com
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Economiccontext
14
Let’sstartwiththeU.S.economy
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U.S.economy
-4,659,400
-654,700
-475,000
-33,300
110,600
408,600
514,900
630,100
693,600
747,600
1,089,800
1,139,200
1,205,000
1,812,100
1,836,200
2,098,300
2,119,800
3,219,300
3,280,600
3,457,700
6,283,600
ManufacturingInformation
Farm employmentUtilities
Forestry, fishing, & related activities (.4%)Construction (1.3%)
Wholesale trade (1.7%)Management of companies & enterprises (2.1%)
Retail Trade (2.3%)Mining (2.4%)
Arts, entertainment, & recreation (3.6%)Transportation & warehousing (3.7%)
Government & government enterprises (3.9%)Finance & insurance (5.9%)Educational services (6.0%)
Other services, except public admin. (6.8%)Administrative & waste services (6.9%)
Professional & technical services (10.5%)Real estate & rental & leasing (10.7%)
Accommodation & food services (11.3%)Health care & social assistance (20.5%)
Change in U.S. Jobs 2000-2015(% of total growth in parenthesis)
U.S.DepartmentofCommerce.2016.BureauofEconomicAnalysis,RegionalEconomicInformationSystem,Washington,D.C.TableSA25N.
31millionnewjobs
>95%inservices
15
Mostjobgrowthinservices
U.S.changeinjobs2000-2015(%oftotalgrowthinparenthesis)
-4,659,400
-654,700
-475,000
-33,300
110,600
408,600
514,900
630,100
693,600
747,600
1,089,800
1,139,200
1,205,000
1,812,100
1,836,200
2,098,300
2,119,800
3,219,300
3,280,600
3,457,700
6,283,600
ManufacturingInformation
Farm employmentUtilities
Forestry, fishing, & related activities (.4%)Construction (1.3%)
Wholesale trade (1.7%)Management of companies & enterprises (2.1%)
Retail Trade (2.3%)Mining (2.4%)
Arts, entertainment, & recreation (3.6%)Transportation & warehousing (3.7%)
Government & government enterprises (3.9%)Finance & insurance (5.9%)Educational services (6.0%)
Other services, except public admin. (6.8%)Administrative & waste services (6.9%)
Professional & technical services (10.5%)Real estate & rental & leasing (10.7%)
Accommodation & food services (11.3%)Health care & social assistance (20.5%)
Change in U.S. Jobs 2000-2015(% of total growth in parenthesis)
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16
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
$16,000
1948
19
50 19
52 19
54 19
56 19
58 19
60 19
62 19
64 19
66 19
68 19
70 19
72 19
74 19
76 19
78 19
80 19
82 19
84 19
86 19
88 19
90 19
92 19
94 19
96 19
98 20
00 20
02 20
04 20
06 20
08 20
10 20
12 20
14
Pri
vate
Indu
stri
es F
ull &
Par
t-Ti
me
Jobs
(Tho
usan
ds)
Pri
vate
Indu
stri
es V
alue
Add
ed (B
illio
ns o
f 201
4 $s
)
Private Industries Industry Value Added vs. Employment, 1948-2014
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
1948
19
50 19
52 19
54 19
56 19
58 19
60 19
62 19
64 19
66 19
68 19
70 19
72 19
74 19
76 19
78 19
80 19
82 19
84 19
86 19
88 19
90 19
92 19
94 19
96 19
98 20
00 20
02 20
04 20
06 20
08 20
10 20
12 20
14
Pro
fess
iona
l, S
cien
tific
, And
Tec
hnic
al S
ervi
ces
Full
& P
art-
Tim
e Jo
bs
(Tho
usan
ds)
Pro
fess
iona
l, S
cien
tific
, And
Tec
hnic
al S
ervi
ces
Valu
e A
dded
(Bill
ions
of 2
014
$s)
Professional, Scientific, And Technical Services Industry Value Added vs. Employment, 1948-2014
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
1948
19
50 19
52 19
54 19
56 19
58 19
60 19
62 19
64 19
66 19
68 19
70 19
72 19
74 19
76 19
78 19
80 19
82 19
84 19
86 19
88 19
90 19
92 19
94 19
96 19
98 20
00 20
02 20
04 20
06 20
08 20
10 20
12 20
14
Hea
lth C
are
And
Soc
ial A
ssis
tanc
e Fu
ll &
Par
t-Tim
e Jo
bs (T
hous
ands
)
Hea
lth C
are
And
Soc
ial A
ssis
tanc
e Va
lue
Add
ed (B
illio
ns o
f 201
4 $s
)
Health Care And Social Assistance Industry Value Added vs. Employment, 1948-2014
AllindustriesinU.S.
Professional,scientific&tech.services
Valueofproduction&jobstrackclosely
Healthcare
U.S.DepartmentofCommerce.2016.BureauofEconomicAnalysis,RegionalEconomicAccounts,Washington,D.C.TableCA25N andRegionalEconomicAccountshttps://www.bea.gov/regional/downloadzip.cfm.
Jobs
Value
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0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
1948
19
50 19
52 19
54 19
56 19
58 19
60 19
62 19
64 19
66 19
68 19
70 19
72 19
74 19
76 19
78 19
80 19
82 19
84 19
86 19
88 19
90 19
92 19
94 19
96 19
98 20
00 20
02 20
04 20
06 20
08 20
10 20
12 20
14
Man
ufac
turi
ng F
ull &
Par
t-Ti
me
Jobs
(Tho
usan
ds)
Man
ufac
turi
ng V
alue
Add
ed (B
illio
ns o
f 201
4 $s
) Manufacturing Industry Value Added vs. Employment, 1948-2014
Jobs
Value
Manufacturingisanexception
88%ofjoblossduetoautomation
FigureisforU.S.https://headwaterseconomics.org/economic-development/trends-performance/changing-role-manufacturing/Automationfigurefrom:HicksMJandDevaraj S.2015.TheMythandtheRealityofManufacturinginAmerica.Muncie,IN:CenterofBusinessandEconomicResearch,BallStateUniversity.http://conexus.cberdata.org/files/MfgReality.pdf.
Productivityhigherthanever,butwithfewerworkers
17
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3.1%%
$33.17%
19.8%
3.2%%
$22.43%
18.7%
4.1%%
$20.04%
12.3%
Unemployment%rate%(Sept%2015)% Average%hourly%earnings% U.S.%jobs%(Milions)%
Professional,,Scien/fic,,&,Technical,Services, Health,&,Social,Assistance, Manufacturing,
FiguresforU.S.http://www.bls.gov/industriesataglance
18
Othersectorsoutperformingmanufacturing
Example:
3.1%%
$33.17%
19.8%
3.2%%
$22.43%
18.7%
4.1%%
$20.04%
12.3%
Unemployment%rate%(Sept%2015)% Average%hourly%earnings% U.S.%jobs%(Milions)%
Professional,,Scien/fic,,&,Technical,Services, Health,&,Social,Assistance, Manufacturing,
U.S.jobs(millions)Averagehourlyearnings
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19FigureisforU.S..AdaptedfromWashingtonPost,Wonkblog.March10,2017.https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/03/10/the-people-who-were-left-behind-two-months-ago-are-still-left-behind/?utm_term=.6d19ba72044a
Workersproducemore,butwageshavenotkeptup
%gaininworkerproductivityvs.compensation,1948-2013
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Economiccontext
20
TheWest
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TheWestoutperformstherestofthecountry
Jobs
TheWEST
FordetailsontheWest’sperformancecomparedtotherestofthecountry,see:https://headwaterseconomics.org/economic-development/trends-performance/west-wide-summary/ 21
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Westchangeinjobs2000-2015(%oftotalgrowthinparenthesis)
-591,364
-64,079
-43,079
-22,355
8,695
43,435
75,558
126,138
195,846
308,576
314,538
356,965
370,565
391,378
401,286
493,550
519,518
786,689
788,790
806,230
1,689,711
-1,000,000 -500,000 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000
ManufacturingInformation
Farm employmentConstruction
Utilities (.1%)Management of companies & enterprises (.6%)
Forestry, fishing, & related activities (1.0%)Mining (1.6%)
Wholesale trade (2.6%)Arts, entertainment, & recreation (4.0%)
Transportation & warehousing (4.1%)Finance & insurance (4.6%)
Government & government enterprises (4.8%)Retail Trade (5.1%)
Educational services (5.2%)Other services, except public admin. (6.4%)
Administrative & waste services (6.8%)Accommodation & food services (10.2%)
Real estate & rental & leasing (10.3%)Professional & technical services (10.5%)
Health care & social assistance (22.0%)
8.4millionnewjobs
90%inservices
U.S.DepartmentofCommerce.2016.BureauofEconomicAnalysis,RegionalEconomicInformationSystem,Washington,D.C.TableSA25N. 22
Mostjobgrowthinservices
-4,659,400
-654,700
-475,000
-33,300
110,600
408,600
514,900
630,100
693,600
747,600
1,089,800
1,139,200
1,205,000
1,812,100
1,836,200
2,098,300
2,119,800
3,219,300
3,280,600
3,457,700
6,283,600
ManufacturingInformation
Farm employmentUtilities
Forestry, fishing, & related activities (.4%)Construction (1.3%)
Wholesale trade (1.7%)Management of companies & enterprises (2.1%)
Retail Trade (2.3%)Mining (2.4%)
Arts, entertainment, & recreation (3.6%)Transportation & warehousing (3.7%)
Government & government enterprises (3.9%)Finance & insurance (5.9%)Educational services (6.0%)
Other services, except public admin. (6.8%)Administrative & waste services (6.9%)
Professional & technical services (10.5%)Real estate & rental & leasing (10.7%)
Accommodation & food services (11.3%)Health care & social assistance (20.5%)
Change in U.S. Jobs 2000-2015(% of total growth in parenthesis)
TheWEST
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West personalincomebysource,2015
Datafrom:U.S.DepartmentofCommerce.2016.BureauofEconomicAnalysis,RegionalEconomicAccounts,Washington,D.C.TableCA25N
36.1%
1.4% 11.0%
46.8%
12.4% Non-Labor: retirement,investments,etc.
Extractive:mining,oil,gas,timber
Manufacturing,construction,agriculture
Services:health,engineering,education,etc.
Government
45.8%
4.7%
10.2%
28.0%
14.8% Non-Labor: retirement,investments,etc.
Extractive:mining,oil,gas,timber
Manufacturing,construction,agriculture
Services:health,engineering,education,etc.Government
45.8%
4.7%
10.2%
28.0%
14.8% Non-Labor: retirement,investments,etc.
Extractive:mining,oil,gas,timber
Manufacturing,construction,agriculture
Services:health,engineering,education,etc.Government
45.8%
4.7%
10.2%
28.0%
14.8% Non-Labor: retirement,investments,etc.
Extractive:mining,oil,gas,timber
Manufacturing,construction,agriculture
Services:health,engineering,education,etc.Government
45.8%
4.7%
10.2%
28.0%
14.8% Non-Labor: retirement,investments,etc.
Extractive:mining,oil,gas,timber
Manufacturing,construction,agriculture
Services:health,engineering,education,etc.Government
45.8%
4.7%
10.2%
28.0%
14.8% Non-Labor: retirement,investments,etc.
Extractive:mining,oil,gas,timber
Manufacturing,construction,agriculture
Services:health,engineering,education,etc.Government
23
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RuralWest– verysimilar;personalincomebysource,2015
Wedefineruralasnon-metro.Metrocountiescontainacorepopulationof50,000ormorepeopleorare“outlying”countiesandtiedeconomicallytothecoreareasbylaborforcecommuting.Datafrom:U.S.DepartmentofCommerce.2016.BureauofEconomicAnalysis,RegionalEconomicAccounts,Washington,D.C.TableCA25N.Agriculturein2015represented3%oftotalpersonalincomeinthenon-metro,orruralWest.
45.8%
4.7%
10.2%
28.0%
14.8% Non-Labor: retirement,investments,etc.
Extractive:mining,oil,gas,timber
Manufacturing,construction,agriculture
Services:health,engineering,education,etc.
Government
45.8%
4.7%
10.2%
28.0%
14.8% Non-Labor: retirement,investments,etc.
Extractive:mining,oil,gas,timber
Manufacturing,construction,agriculture
Services:health,engineering,education,etc.Government
45.8%
4.7%
10.2%
28.0%
14.8% Non-Labor: retirement,investments,etc.
Extractive:mining,oil,gas,timber
Manufacturing,construction,agriculture
Services:health,engineering,education,etc.Government
45.8%
4.7%
10.2%
28.0%
14.8% Non-Labor: retirement,investments,etc.
Extractive:mining,oil,gas,timber
Manufacturing,construction,agriculture
Services:health,engineering,education,etc.Government
45.8%
4.7%
10.2%
28.0%
14.8% Non-Labor: retirement,investments,etc.
Extractive:mining,oil,gas,timber
Manufacturing,construction,agriculture
Services:health,engineering,education,etc.Government
45.8%
4.7%
10.2%
28.0%
14.8% Non-Labor: retirement,investments,etc.
Extractive:mining,oil,gas,timber
Manufacturing,construction,agriculture
Services:health,engineering,education,etc.Government
24
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25
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Millionsof2015$s
Government Non-Labor Non-Services Services
PersonalincomeintheWest
ServicesDoctors,engineers,lawyers,accountants,waiters,barbers,etc.
Non-Labor Retirement,investments,SocialSecurity,Medicare,Medicaid,etc.
Government
Non-Servicesredline
Local,state,federal
Construction,manufacturing,mining,oil&gas,agriculture,etc.
http://headwaterseconomics.org/dataviz/west-wide-atlas
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26
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Millionsof2015$s
Government Non-Labor Non-Services Services
Services
Whysomuchgrowthinservices?>90%ofLABORincomegrowthinlastdecade Demandhasincreased:
Healthcare,insuranceHightechproductsLeisure,entertainment
Supplyhasincreased:
Newindustries(software)
Somefunctionsonceinternalto“goodsproduction”nowoutsourced&countedasservices(e.g.accounting)
Servicesnothighlyautomated(thewaymanufacturingis)
Servicesare50%oflaborincomein2015.Figureisintermsoflaborincome,asubsetoftotalpersonalincome;theremainderisnon-laborincome.U.S.DepartmentofCommerce.2016.BureauofEconomicAnalysis,RegionalEconomicAccounts,Washington,D.C.TableCA25N.
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27
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Millionsof2015$s
Government Non-Labor Non-Services Services
Non-Labor
Non-laboris36%ofTPIin2015.Figureisintermsoftotalpersonalincome(laborplusnon-laborincome).U.S.DepartmentofCommerce.2016.BureauofEconomicAnalysis,RegionalEconomicAccounts,Washington,D.C.TableCA25NForathoroughanalysisofthethreetypesofnon-laborincome,see:https://headwaterseconomics.org/economic-development/trends-performance/non-labor/
Whysomuchgrowthinnon-laborincome?>55%ofTOTALPERSONALINCOMEgrowthinlastdecade
Three typesofnon-laborincome:
InvestmentRelated(dividends,interest&rent)
AgeRelated(retirement,Medicare,socialsecurity,etc.)
Hardship-related(Medicaid,foodstamps,etc.)
BabyBoomers&thestockmarket
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Investment-related20%oftotalpersonalincomeintheWest
(Dividends,Interest&Rent)
U.S.DepartmentofCommerce.2016.BureauofEconomicAnalysis,RegionalEconomicAccounts,Washington,D.C.
28
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Age-related8%oftotalpersonalincomeintheWest
(SocialSecurity,Medicare)
29Lawson,M.,R.Rasker,andP.Gude.2014.“TheImportanceofNon-LaborIncome:AnAnalysisofSocioeconomicPerformanceinWesternCountiesbyTypeofNon-LaborIncome.”JournalofRegionalAnalysisandPolicy.44(2):175-190.
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Hardship-related5.7%oftotalpersonalincomeintheWest
(Medicaid,incomemaintenance,unemploymentcompensation)
Foodstampimagefrom:http://publicradioeast.org/post/snap-food-stamps-require-20-hour-work-week
30
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Non-laborincomewillcontinuetogrow
Injustfiveyears1/4ofuswillbe55yearsorolder
75millionareBabyBoomers,bornbetween1946and1964.By2020,25%ofallworkerswillbeatleast55yearsold andeverymonth,morethanaquarter-millionAmericansturn65.Yet,only17%ofBabyBoomersarecurrentlyretired.http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-baby-boomers-retirement-means-for-the-u-s-economy/. 31
BabyBoomerscontrol80%ofthefinancialassetsofthecountry
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32
Westerncountiesdependmostlyonservices&non-laborincome
> 10%oflaborearningsfrom:
Timber 1%ofallcountiesMining 12%ofallcounties(2%oil&gas)
> 50%oflaborearningsfrom:
Services 41%ofallcounties
> 50%oftotalpersonalincomefrom:
Non-Labor 25%ofallcounties
Datafor2015.Thereare414countiesintheWest,ofwhich278arenon-metro.From2000-2015,80%ofcountiesaddedpopulation,19%lost.Duringthattime74%ofnon-metrocountiesgrewwhile25%lostpopulation.Miningincludesoil,gas,coal,minerals.2%ofcountieshave>10%oflaborearningsfrompeoplewhoworkinoilandgas.Intermsofnon-laborincome:48%ofcountieswith>20%ofTPIfrominvestmentincome.70%ofcountieshave>10%ofTPIfromage-relatedincome;and21%have>10%ofTPIfromhardship-relatedsources. Source:U.S.DepartmentofCommerce.2016.BureauofEconomicAnalysis,RegionalEconomicAccounts,Washington,D.C.TableCA05.
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Atheoryofrural
development
33
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Touristsneedaccessbyair:nearly4outof5airtripsareforleisure(79%)
Airaccessbenefitstherestoftheeconomy;e.g.techworkerstravelbyair60-400%morethangeneralworkforce
4outof5statisticfromUSTravel.org https://www.ustravel.org/answersheet.Techworkerstatfrom:Kasarda,J.D.,2000a.Logisticsandtheriseofaerotropolis.RealEstateIssues27(4),43–49.andKasarda,J.D.,2000b.Aerotropolis:airport-driven urban development.Cities inthe 21stCentury.UrbanLand Institute,Washington,D.C.,pp.32–41.
Accesstomajorpopulationcentersisaprincipledriverofeconomicopportunity
34
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Agriculture&resourceextraction
Tourism Transportationinfrastructure
Diverseeconomy:
Agriculture,resourceindustries,tourism,plus
high-tech
footloosebusinesses
investmentincome,retirement,semi-retirement
building,healthcare,retail,etc.
AMENITYMIGRATION
Overtime,asacommunitydiversifiesfromresourceindustriestoincludetourism,theeconomywillexpandiftransportationinfrastructurealsoexpands
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Thereare3typesofcountiesMETRO(&commutershed)HigherwagesLessvolatilityMorehigh-wageservicesFastest-growingYoungerMoreeducated
RURAL&ISOLATEDLowestwagesMostvolatilityFewhigh-wageservicesSlowest-growingOlder&agingLesseducated
CONNECTED(viaairports)Overtime,performmorelikeMETRO
97%ofpopulationlivesineitherMETROorCONNECTED
https://headwaterseconomics.org/economic-development/trends-performance/three-wests-explained/
36
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75%ofalljobsareconcentratedincities
https://headwaterseconomics.org/economic-development/trends-performance/urban-areas-drive-economic-growth-in-the-west/
37
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92%Westliveinmetroareas
75%restofcountry
TheWestisthemosturbanpartofthecountry
MichaelStratton,usedbypermission
38
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“Foroveracenturypunditshavebeenpredictingthatnewformsofcommunicationwouldmakeurbanlifeirrelevant.
Todefeatthehumanneedforface-to-facecontacts,ourtechnologicalmarvelswouldneedtodefeatmillionsofyearsofhumanevolutionthathasmadeusintomachinesforlearningfromthepeoplenexttous.”
39
Theadvantageofcitiesisthesocialnetwork
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“Inthetwentiethcentury,competitionwasaboutaccumulatingphysicalcapital.
Todayitisaboutattractingthebesthumancapital.”
40
Humancapitaliscritical
Goodpayingjobsexist,butinterstatemobilityamongAmericanhasdeclined.Reasonswhyhere:https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2896309
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FigureisforU.S.in2014fromU.S.Dept.Labor,BureauofLaborStatistics,CurrentPopulationSurvey. 41
Highereducationlevelsmean
higherwageslowerunemployment &
488
668
741
792
1,101
1,326
1,639
1,591
Less than a
high school diploma
High school diploma
Some college,
no degree
Associate's degree
Bachelor's degree
Master's degree
Professional degree
Doctoral degree
Median weekly earnings in 2014 ($)
9.0
6.0
6.0
4.5
3.5
2.8
1.9
2.1
Unemployment rate in 2014 (%)
All workers: 5% All workers: $839
Earnings and Unemployment Rates by Educational Attainment
Note: Data are for persons age 25 and over. Earnings are for full-time wage and salary workers.
Source: Current Population Survey, U.S. Department of Labor, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
488
668
741
792
1,101
1,326
1,639
1,591
Less than a
high school diploma
High school diploma
Some college,
no degree
Associate's degree
Bachelor's degree
Master's degree
Professional degree
Doctoral degree
Median weekly earnings in 2014 ($)
9.0
6.0
6.0
4.5
3.5
2.8
1.9
2.1
Unemployment rate in 2014 (%)
All workers: 5% All workers: $839
Earnings and Unemployment Rates by Educational Attainment
Note: Data are for persons age 25 and over. Earnings are for full-time wage and salary workers.
Source: Current Population Survey, U.S. Department of Labor, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
488
668
741
792
1,101
1,326
1,639
1,591
Less than a
high school diploma
High school diploma
Some college,
no degree
Associate's degree
Bachelor's degree
Master's degree
Professional degree
Doctoral degree
Median weekly earnings in 2014 ($)
9.0
6.0
6.0
4.5
3.5
2.8
1.9
2.1
Unemployment rate in 2014 (%)
All workers: 5% All workers: $839
Earnings and Unemployment Rates by Educational Attainment
Note: Data are for persons age 25 and over. Earnings are for full-time wage and salary workers.
Source: Current Population Survey, U.S. Department of Labor, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
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SUMMARY:theeconomyoftheWest
Veryurban
Urban&ruralwithairportsdobetter
Resourcedependenceisrare
Growthinservices&non-laborincome&
Humancapitaliskey
Whatroledofederalpubliclandsplay?42
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Federallands&
ruraleconomies
43
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44
Whatistheeconomicperformanceofruralcountieswithfederallands?
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45
20%
51%
90%
57%
97%
157%
223%
61%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
Population Employment PersonalIncome PerCapitaIncome
Percentchangesinsocioeconomicperformanceinnon-metrowesterncountiesinthetop25thandbottom25thpercentilesofproportionofFEDERALland,
1970-2015.
Countieswithshareoffederallandsinthebottom25thpercentile Countieswithshareoffederallandsinthetop25thpercentile
Ruralisdefinedasnon-metro.Allincomefiguresadjustedforinflation.https://headwaterseconomics.org/public-lands/federal-lands-performance/
Countieswithmorefederallandsgrowfaster
Averagegrowth1970-2015
Mostfederallands
Fewfederallands
20%
51%
90%
57%
97%
157%
223%
61%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
Population Employment PersonalIncome PerCapitaIncome
Percentchangesinsocioeconomicperformanceinnon-metrowesterncountiesinthetop25thandbottom25thpercentilesofproportionofFEDERALland,
1970-2015.
Countieswithshareoffederallandsinthebottom25thpercentile Countieswithshareoffederallandsinthetop25thpercentile
20%
51%
90%
57%
97%
157%
223%
61%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
Population Employment PersonalIncome PerCapitaIncome
Percentchangesinsocioeconomicperformanceinnon-metrowesterncountiesinthetop25thandbottom25thpercentilesofproportionofFEDERALland,
1970-2015.
Countieswithshareoffederallandsinthebottom25thpercentile Countieswithshareoffederallandsinthetop25thpercentile
Top25th percentileBottom25th percentile
Countyshareoffederallandinruralwesterncounties:
Population Employment PersonalIncome PerCapitaIncome
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46Seeinteractivedatavisualization:https://headwaterseconomics.org/dataviz/federal-lands-performance/
Growthcouldbebecauseofrecreation,timber,minerals,energy,services,migration,non-laborincome,homebuilding,medical,etc.
Top25thfederallands
Bottom25thfederallands
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25%offederallandsarePROTECTED
FederallandsintheWest:346millionacres
Protected (Nat.Park,Wilderness,N.Monument,etc.)
25%
Somewhatprotected(WildernessStudy,Roadless)
14%
MultipleUse
61%
47
Protectedincludes:NationalParksandPreserves(NPS),Wilderness(NPS,FWS,FS,BLM),NationalConservationAreas(BLM),NationalMonuments(NPS,FS,BLM),NationalRecreationAreas(NPS,FS,BLM),NationalWildandScenicRivers(NPS,FS,BLM),WaterfowlProduction Areas(FWS),WildlifeManagementAreas(FWS),ResearchNaturalAreas(FS,BLM),AreasofCriticalEnvironmentalConcern(BLM),andNationalWildlifeRefuges(FWS).
Somewhatprotectedincludes:WildernessStudyAreas(NPS,FWS,FS,BLM),InventoriedRoadlessAreas(FS).
MultipleuseincludesPublicDomainLands(BLM),O&CLands(BLM),NationalForestsandGrasslands(FS).
Source:U.S.GeologicalSurvey,GapAnalysisProgram.2016.ProtectedAreasDatabaseoftheUnitedStates(PADUS)version1.4
(non-military)
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48
CountieswithmorePROTECTEDfederallandsgrowfaster
Mostfederalands
Fewfederalands
34%
72%
108%
54%
89%
169%
252%
73%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
Population Employment PersonalIncome PerCapitaIncome
Percentchangesinsocioeconomicperformanceinnon-metrowesterncountiesinthetop25thandbottom25thpercentilesofproportionofprotectedfederalland,1970-2015.
Countieswithshareofprotectedfederallandsinthebottom25thpercentile Countieswithshareofprotectedfederallandsinthetop25thpercentile
Mostprotectedfederallands
Leastprotectedfederallands
Ruralisdefinedasnon-metro.Allincomefiguresadjustedforinflation.https://headwaterseconomics.org/public-lands/federal-lands-performance/
Averagegrowth1970-2015
20%
51%
90%
57%
97%
157%
223%
61%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
Population Employment PersonalIncome PerCapitaIncome
Percentchangesinsocioeconomicperformanceinnon-metrowesterncountiesinthetop25thandbottom25thpercentilesofproportionofFEDERALland,
1970-2015.
Countieswithshareoffederallandsinthebottom25thpercentile Countieswithshareoffederallandsinthetop25thpercentile
Top25th percentileBottom25th percentile
CountyshareofPROTECTEDfederallandinruralwesterncounties:
34%
72%
108%
54%
89%
169%
252%
73%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
Population Employment PersonalIncome PerCapitaIncome
Percentchangesinsocioeconomicperformanceinnon-metrowesterncountiesinthetop25thandbottom25thpercentilesofproportionofprotectedfederalland,1970-2015.
Countieswithshareofprotectedfederallandsinthebottom25thpercentile Countieswithshareofprotectedfederallandsinthetop25thpercentile
Population Employment PersonalIncome PerCapitaIncome
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49
RuralcountieswithhighlevelofPROTECTEDhavefasterpersonalincomegrowth
AverageTotalPersonalIncomeGrowth1970-2015
Ruralisdefinedasnon-metro.https://headwaterseconomics.org/wp-content/uploads/Methods-federal-lands-performance.pdf.
$248,136
$1,005,575
$209,502
$547,535
$0
$200,000
$400,000
$600,000
$800,000
$1,000,000
$1,200,000
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
2015
Counties withshareofprotected federallandsinthetop 25thpercentileCounties withshareofprotected federallandsinthebottom 25thpercentile
Top25th percentile
Bottom25th percentile
CountyshareofPROTECTEDfederalland:
In2015$,x1000
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50
Protectedfederallandsexplainpartoftherelativesizeofpercapitaincomeforruralcounties
Example
https://headwaterseconomics.org/public-lands/protected-lands/protected-public-lands-increase-per-capita-income/andRasker,R.,P.Gude,andM.Delorey.2013.“TheEffectofProtectedFederalLandsonEconomicProsperityintheNon-metropolitanWest.”JournalofRegionalAnalysisandPolicy.43(2):110-122.
Example
Relativetootherfactors,includingmigration,education,age-relatednon-laborincome,elevation,airporttraveltime,resourcedependence&others.
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Foreach100,000acresofWilderness,NationalPark,NationalMonumentinacountythePerCapitaIncomeincreases$4,360
51
$0$436
$2,180
$4,360
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
0acres 10,000acres 50,000acres 100,000acres
MeanIncreasein
PerCapita
Income
ProtectedPublicLands
IfcountiesA&Bwereidenticalineveryway,butcountyAhada50,000acresofprotectedpubliclandandcountyBhadnone,youwouldexpectincomeincountyAtobeonaverage$2,180higherperperson.
https://headwaterseconomics.org/public-lands/protected-lands/protected-public-lands-increase-per-capita-income/andRasker,R.,P.Gude,andM.Delorey.2013.“TheEffectofProtectedFederalLandsonEconomicProsperityintheNon-metropolitanWest.”JournalofRegionalAnalysisandPolicy.43(2):110-122
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NationalMonuments:growthbefore&afterdesignation
Theaboveareexamples.Toseehoweachmonumentperformed,see:https://headwaterseconomics.org/dataviz/national-monuments/
17 National Monuments >10,000 acres & designated in 1982 or later – economy grew in each
Does not imply cause & effect, but proves no decline in economy
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Cascade-SiskiyouDesignated:2000
GrandCanyonParashantDesignated:2000
GrandStaircase-EscalanteDesignated:1996
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IntheWEST
104millionvisitorsspent$6.7billion
creating104,000jobs&
$3.7billioninlaborincome
NationalParkscreatejobs
IntheU.S.307millionvisitorsspent$16.9billion,creating293,300jobs&$11.1billioninlaborincomehttps://www.nps.gov/subjects/socialscience/vse.htm andhttps://headwaterseconomics.org/public-lands/protected-lands/economic-impact-of-national-parks/
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Retireesmigratetowesterncountieswithprotectedpubliclands
U.S.DepartmentofCommerce.2016.CensusBureau,PopulationDivision,Washington,D.C.ForamorethoroughexplanationofmethodsusedcontactRayRaskerray@headwaterseconomics.org.
Mostprotectedfederallands
LeastProtectedfederallands
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Federallands&
politics
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“Itisourgoaltogettheloggerbacktologging,togettherancherbacktoranching,togettheminerbacktomining,thefarmerbacktofarming— andtojump-startthiseconomyinHarneyCounty.”
AmmonBundyMalheurWildlifeRefuge
PhotoAP/RickBowmer viahttp://www.salon.com/2016/01/09/ammon_bundy_is_not_a_terrorist_the_authorities_are_waiting_out_the_militia_just_as_they_should_do_with_black_lives_matter_protesters/
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PartsoftheruralWestarebeingleftbehind
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Westernsawmillsandtimberproduction
ManufacturingautomationalsoimpactsruralWesterncounties
InOregon,themosttimber-dependentstate,timberharvestsincreasedby50%between2009&2013,whiletimberemploymentincreasedby1%
ORtimberharvest:BureauofBusinessandEconomicResearch,UniversityofMontana:http://www.bber.umt.edu/FIR/HarvestOR.aspx.Lumberandwoodproductsmanufacturingemploymentfrom:U.S.DepartmentofCommerce.2016.BureauofEconomicAnalysis,RegionalEconomicAccounts,Washington,D.C.TableSA25N.Figureshowingtherelationshipbetweensawmillproductionandmillsadaptedfrom:OregonOfficeofEconomicAnalysis.WoodProductsProductivity,anUpdate.https://oregoneconomicanalysis.com/2012/01/26/wood-products-productivity-an-update/.
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Rural(Non-Metro)
Urban(Metro) U.S.
Families belowpoverty 9.4% 11.9% 11.5%
Households receiving:
SupplementalS.Security(welfare) 4.8% 5.3% 5.3%
Foodstamps 9.8% 10.9% 13%
Retirementincome 22.8% 16.1% 17.8%
SocialSecurity 36.4% 26% 29.3%
%population65yrs.or older 17.3% 12.2% 14.1%
Rateofjobgrowth2000-2015 12% 21% 15%
Ave.earnings/job2015 $44,336 $62,338 $58,228
Ruralwesterncountyeconomicsaffectspolitics
lesspoverty
but…..
older&relymoreonretirement$
slowerjobgrowth
Ruralcountieshave:
U.S.DepartmentofCommerce.2016.CensusBureau,AmericanCommunitySurveyOffice,Washington,D.C.;U.S.DepartmentofCommerce.2000.CensusBureau,SystemsSupportDivision,Washington,D.C.Jobfiguresfrom:U.S.DepartmentofCommerce.2016.BureauofEconomicAnalysis,RegionalEconomicAccounts,Washington,D.C.TableCA30.Someotherindicatorsshowlittledifference:UnemploymentrateApril2017(rural5.6%,urban5%).%pop.Growthfrommigration2000-2015(rural35%,urban39%).
lowerwages
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59https://headwaterseconomics.org/dataviz/west-wide-atlas/ 68of413countieslostjobsfrom2005- 2015
Jobgrowthisnotevenlydistributed
16%ofcountieslostjobsinthelastdecade
Ruralisolatedcountiesperformworsethanthoseconnectedviaairtravel
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60http://brilliantmaps.com/2016-county-election-map/.“Redvs.BluePoliticalDivideMayReallyBeAboutYoungvs.Old”http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/red-vs-blue-political-divide-may-really-be-about-young-n725651
Aredifferencesinjobgrowthreflectedinthe2016presidentialelection?
TrumpClinton
Oraretheyalsoareflectionofruralcountiesbeingolder,witholdervotersfavoringTrump?
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Notsurprisingly,tensionsriseonallsides
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POLL:Westernersvisitpubliclandthemost
Visitedinthelastyear
West
U.S.
93% 78%
17%ofwesternersvisitedmorethan20times,comparedto4%forU.S.
2016surveysbyDaveMetz/Fairbank,Maslin,Maullin,Metz$Associates,LoriWeigel/PublicOpinionStrategies.
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POLL:Mostbelievefederalpubliclandshelpeconomy
1 2 3
Helpsoureconomy
Hurts
Haslittleimpact
19%
72%6%
2016surveysbyDaveMetz/Fairbank,Maslin,Maullin,Metz$Associates,LoriWeigel/PublicOpinionStrategies.
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protectcleanwater,air,wildlifewhileprovidingaccesstonationalpubliclands
68%
58% stronglyopposeturningfederallandstostates(33%support)
80% NationalMonuments- keepthemthatway
75% conservationofpubliclandsatopissuewhendecidingonacandidate
supportLand&WaterConservationFund75%
POLL:Westernerssupportconservationoffederallands
ColoradoCollege,StateoftherockiesProject.https://www.coloradocollege.edu/other/stateoftherockies/conservationinthewest/2017/2017SORPollReleasePresentation.pdf.BasedonJan.2017pollinginMT,WY,NV,UT,CO,AZ,andNM.
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Jan.3,2017.https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/01/03/house-gop-rules-change-would-make-it-easier-to-sell-off-federal-land/?utm_term=.480ab9240a70Jan.4,2017http://www.greatfallstribune.com/story/news/local/2017/01/04/zinke-vote-federal-land-comes-fire/96171020Fromhttps://zinke.house.gov/issues/public-lands“Iwillnottoleratesellingourpubliclands.” Jan.17,2017https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/17/us/politics/ryan-zinke-interior-secretary.htm.Rep.Chaffetz’s billproposedtosell3.3millionacresoffedland.http://www.idahostatesman.com/news/local/news-columns-blogs/letters-from-the-west/article130291054.html 65
Federallandsareinthenews
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Feb.16,2017.http://www.sltrib.com/home/4952414-155/outdoor-retailer-convention-leaving-utah“Herbert”intheheadlinereferstoUtah’sGovernorGaryHerbert. 66
Generated$45millionforSaltLakeCity
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RESOURCESHeadwatersEconomics:https://headwaterseconomics.org/
Freeanalyticaltools:https://headwaterseconomics.org/tools/
Publiclands:https://headwaterseconomics.org/topic/public-lands/
Federallands:liabilityorasset:https://headwaterseconomics.org/public-lands/federal-lands-performance/
Thevalueofpubliclands:https://headwaterseconomics.org/public-lands/public-lands-research/
NationalMonuments:https://headwaterseconomics.org/dataviz/national-monuments/
NationalParks:https://headwaterseconomics.org/public-lands/protected-lands/economic-impact-of-national-parks/
Economicdevelopment:https://headwaterseconomics.org/topic/economic-development/
Localstudies:https://headwaterseconomics.org/topic/economic-development/local-studies/
ThreeWests:https://headwaterseconomics.org/dataviz/three-wests/
Trailsbenefitslibrary: https://headwaterseconomics.org/trail/
ForhighresolutioncopiesofanyslidepleasecontactRayRaskerray@headwaterseconomics.org or406570-7044
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Jakus,P.2016.WhatDoestheQualityofPublicLandsImplyforFederalLandTransfers?WesternPolicyBrief.July.http://wrdc.usu.edu/files/publications/publication/pub__3361871.pdf. 69
Caveats
Federallands=moregrowthdoesnotimplycause&effect
But,noevidencethatpubliclands,orconservation,hurtslocaleconomies
Publiclandamenitiesareimportant,butnotsufficient
Alsoneeded:AccesstopopulationcentersEducationDiverseeconomy
Somedifferencesineconomicperformancemayalsobeafunctionoftopographyandhistoricallanduse:communitiesdominatedbyflat,arablelandtendtodependmoreonagriculture,andarenotdoingaswellintheruralWest.Westernlandsunsuitableforagriculturearemorelikelytohavealargeshareoffederalland,whichinsomeplaceshasspurredmorediverseeconomicactivity.