tissue paper industry_good report
TRANSCRIPT
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Global Tissue MarketWorkshop Fibria-ABTCP � 30th April. 2013
Daniela dos Reis � Innovation Center R&D Engineer
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Global Tissue ConsumptionDevelopment from 2001 to 2015
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0
1
2
3
4
5
201520142013201220112010200920082007200620052004200320022001
Year on year growth in %
Source: RISI (Status: 2011-03)
Average growth 2001-2008: 3.6%
Before the economic crisis => average growth of 3.6%Expected to grow till 2015 => 4.1%
Expected average growth 2010-2015: 4.1%
In mio. tonnes
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Economic DevelopmentUrbanization
Living and Hygiene Standards
Population Growth
Substitution?
Drivers of Tissue ConsumptionHow are the medium-term and long-term perspectives?
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Total Tissue consumption 2011: 30.4 mio. tonnes
Tissue ConsumptionPer Region
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Tissue ConsumptionBy Region
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
20092000 20062003
Asia-Pacific incl. ME
Africa
Latin America
Eastern Europe
Western Europe
North America
2012 2015
In mio. tonnes
Since 2008, Asia-Pacific incl. ME is the largest Tissue consuming regionNA continue to grow even by being most mature market
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Total additional Production 2012-2015: 4.0 mio. tonnes
40% of expected additional production until 2015 => expected to be in ChinaUSA will continue to grow strongly (only behind China in tons): mainly in Premium
Middle East
Mexico
Italy
Indonesia
Brazil
Eastern Europe*
USA
China
Other
23%
4%4%
4%
9%10%
3%
Global Tissue MarketProduction Growth � Additional Per Region: 2012 � 2015
40%
3%
Brazil & Mexico: driving LA expansion => quality demand increasing rapidly
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0
5
10
15
20
25
América do
NorteEuropa
OcidentalJapão Oceania América
LatinaChina Europa
OrientalOrienteMédio
Asia Africa
Worldwide average: 4.15 kg/capita
Emerging markets
Developing markets: quantity
Mature Markets: quality + quantity
Most mature markets: Premium & Ultra Premium quality
World Tissue Consumption 2010Per capita consumption per region
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Tissue Consumption GrowthPer Capita in selected CountriesIn kg / capita
0.80.7 0.1
Brazil World total
5.04.3
0.1
South Korea
n/a3.0
5.24.0
6.04.9
10.49.8
15.314.6
Germany
19.7
17
USA
25.024.1
IndiaChina Russia IndonesiaJapan
2015
2011
Even high developed countries continue to increase per capita consumptionStill very low per capita consumption in Asia & EEUR => huge growth potential
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In mio. tonnes
Growth in Consumer Tissue is expected to be larger than in AfH
End-Consumers - WorldTissue Consumption Forecast by End-Use
6.2
19.6
2019
41.8
7.9
2014
26.5
2012
3.7%34.4
9.3
32.5
2001
21.7
5.4
16.3
6.6
21.6
28.231.8
7.3
2006
25.8
24.5
2009
Away from Home
Consumer
Av. Growth 2001-2019
3.9%
3.0%
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Share of private label in Retail Tissue in % (Retail value based on retail sales price)
Private label is popular in Western Europe and is getting more popular in NA but, with Premium quality
Tissue Market - WorldShare of Private Label in Retail Tissue
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Total Asia-Pacific
China
Eastern Europe
Japan
North America
World
Western Europe
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In mio. tonnes
Toilet Tissue shows the highest consumption growth rates
End-Consumers - WorldTissue Consumption Forecast by End-Use
Source: RISI (Status: 2011-02)
0
510
15
2025
30
3540
45
2009
28
+3.7%
2019
42
2014
34
2012
32
2006
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2001
22Sanitary and Other
Napkins
Toweling
Facial/Hankies
Toilet Tissue
Av. Growth 2001-2019
+4.2%
+3.1%
+3.9%+2.2%-2.1%
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Total World Capacity in 2011 in mio. tonnes: 34.7
KV, GP and SCA are the by far largest Tissue producers
Largest Tissue Producers World
Others
Sofidel
APP
P&G
SCAGeorgia-Pacific
Kimberly-Clark12%
11%
9%
5%
4%
3%
56%
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Tissue Paper by RegionCharacteristics and Trends
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Most important drivers of Tissue consumption at different stages of development
1211109876542 3 20 21 22 23 2413 14 15 16 17 18 1910
Tissue consumption/capita in kg
Quality Upgrades, infrastructure, retail system
Quality Upgrades and product penetration levels decisive for further growth
GDP, Population, Urbanization
GDP/capita
Tissue End-Consumers � World Drivers of Tissue Consumption
Source: RISI
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Structured PaperHigh SoftnessHigh Absorbency Capacity1-ply and 2-ply
Virgin Fibre Superficial SoftnessAbsorbency is increasing
Same quality as EUAHigh Strength
Several plies (3 to 5)Virgin FibreEngland- Strong PrivateLabels
Tissue Paper Premium
Current Consumer Perception in each Region
Virgin Fibre Superficial Softness
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Most Mature market
Strong dominance of Brands
Premium did not suffer with last recession
Supermarkets requiring Premium Private Label
PL business will grow in the next few years
3-ply toilet not successful against Premium
New investments resulting in old TM & mill closuresBusiness has grown based on quality upgrading, new product launches and modified product re-launches, in addition to innovative marketing by industry leaders
Tissue Market - North AmericaTrends
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Tissue Market - EuropeTrends
Market expansion exceed recession tumble
Germany leading growth by far (2010)
Quality demand in WE; high kg/capita: 15,5
High PL share (50%) in WE; cost pressure
Towel tissue as major driver for premium
High GDP growth in EE stimulates demand
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The total Chinese Tissue market is expected to grow by 12% annually in the 2005 to 2015 period.
App has tripled its market share in the last 6 years and planning a higher global performance
More demanding pollution regulations by Chinese authorities
Biggest players are investing in new and modern machines
Infrastructure improvements and advances in the retail system are necessary to improve the business
Cultural issues in India are still a barrier in the Tissue consumption
Tissue Market � Asia and ChinaTrends
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Strong market expansion over the last years Mexico, Brazil & Colombia driving expansion
Towel
Production of Premium still low but growing Only 1 premium product in kitchen towel Premium on AfH towel growing strongly
Toilet
Premium still not being sold in Latin America Some countries migrating from 1-ply to 2-ply & 3-ply Future migration can follow Europe or USA
Tissue Market - Latin AmericaTrends
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2-ply Tissue Paper in 2010
Production increased by 15,4 % in 2010
25,5% of 4708 bi of rolls
39% of Tissue Business Sales
Demanding quality products
3-ply Tissue paper has been introduced into the market
Different consumption per capita in each region
South / Southeast: 10 kg/year
North/ Northeast: < 1 kg/year
Average: 4.5 kg/year
Production and Converting growth in the regions North and Northeast
Tissue Market � BrasilTrends
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Tissue quality = Eucalyptus fibers
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Tissue Grade Quality Requirements
Toilet Softness, Bulk
Facial Softness, Tensile Strength
Napkin Bulk, Tensile Strength
Towel Absorbency Capacity, Bulk, Wet Tensile Strength
Tissue MarketMain Quality requirements per grade
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Most common fibers
Fiber type Characteristics After-press dryness
Hardwood: Eucalyptus, Birch, Aspen
handfeel, good formation, bulk, structural softness, lower strength
STD
Softwood: Pinus, Spruce tension strength, bad formation =
CTMP absorbency, brightness reversion <<
Recycled Tension strength, dirt, lower bulk, lower handfeel <
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Tissue manufacturing introduction | Dalcio
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� Coarseness is the most important parameter for tissue
� Represents a mass unit over certain length of fiber (µg/m)
� Lower coarseness means more flexible and thin fiber, which fill the paper structure spaces
� Lower coarsness means:
� higher softness
� higher bulk
� better formation
Coarseness
Hardwood fibers have low coarsness!
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Average length and coarseness
Fiber typeLength
[mm]
Coarseness
[mg/100m]
Southern Pine 4,0 30
Radiata Pine 2,8 22
Scandinavian Pine 2,6 20
Spruce 3,0 18
Cedar 2,8 16
Birch 1,0 10
Eucalyptus 0,8 8
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Most common composition
Tissue type Composition
Toilet30% SW / 70% HW100% HW100% DIP
Facial50% SW / 50% HW30% SW / 70% HW
Napkin40% SW / 60% HW100% SW
Towel70% SW / 30% HW 70% SW / 30% CTMP100% SW
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Tissue MarketShortage of Recovered Fiber Sources
Tissue producers are big consumers of recovered paper, especially woodfree printing and writing paper. But those papers are now in much shorter supply due to ongoing substitution from paper to electronic media.
Rising Tissue demand coupled with falling recovered paper supply pushes Tissue producers toward virgin fiber utilization.
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Tissue Demand Woodfree P&W Paper Demand
Demand for Tissue and Woodfree P&W Paper
North America & Western Europe in Million Short Tons per Year
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Tissue Market Summary
� Globally, tissue business is expected to grow at 4% per year in the next few
years and also in the long term.
� Different stages of development in each region with specific needs.
� Global tissue industry uses approx. half recycled fiber and half virgin pulp
� Wood pulp will even gain some share from alternative raw materials
Restricted availability of recovered paper leading to higher costs and lower
fiber quality.
Increasing demand of quality products not only in developed countries
� Hardwood fiber, mainly Eucalyptus, has presented best characteristics to meet
tissue quality demands
