thom dammrich - national marine manufacturers … dammrich industry... · the 1970s and 1980s were...

President,

National Marine Manufacturers Association

Thom Dammrich

Recreational Boating

Industry Trends

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

Ind

us

try V

olu

me

Calendar Year

1965 -1991

Average 400,000 1992 - 2006

Average 309,000

U.S. Industry Retail Powerboats (1965 – 2010)

’06-’10

-55%

Significant Decline in Demand Bottomed in 2010

Last 5 Years

2006 291,900

2007 267,300

2008 203,000

2009 153,550

2010 139,000

Total Recreational Boats In Use

15.00

15.50

16.00

16.50

17.00

17.50

18.00

89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

E

Year

Mill

ion

s

The 1970s and 1980s were very good to boating. And PWCs helped

sustain this level of boat ownership through the1990s.

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

15,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

To

tal B

oat

Reg

istr

ati

on

s (

000)

US

Po

pu

lati

on

(000)

YEAR

US Boat Registrations vs. PopulationIncluding PWCs

Population Boat Registrations

The Boating Boom

The PWC Boom

Source: Info-Link Technologies Inc.

But traditional boat ownership (non-PWC) has not kept up with the

population. It has been relatively flat for the past 20 years.

US Boat Registrations vs. PopulationExcluding PWCs

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

YEAR

US

Po

pu

lati

on

(000)

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

15,000

To

tal

Bo

at

Reg

istr

ati

on

s (

000)

Population Boat Registrations


Boats have gotten older. Many of the boats built during the boom are still

in use. In 1997 the average boat was 15 years old. Today the average

boat is more than 20 years old, and getting older.

0

5

10

15

20

25

Avera

ge A

ge

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Year Ending

Average Boat Age by Year


Meanwhile, boat owners have gotten older. Today there are fewer owners

in their 30s and more in their 50s and 60s.

Age Distribution of Powerboat Owners1998 vs 2011

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

<25 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75+

Age Range

2011 1998


This is especially evident among sailors. They tend to be loyal to the

sport but grinding winches in your 70s gets old too.

Age Distribution of Sailboat Owners1998 vs 2011

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

<25 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75+

Age Range

2011 1998

Many of these people are still sailing

But sailing is

physical so…


U.S. Boating Participation History (1990 – 2010)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

19901991

19921993

19941995

19961997

19981999

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

2010

Milli

ons

of P

artic

ipan

ts

No. of Adults Boating

33.4%

28.3% 30.5%

29.2%

26.6% 26.0%

28.8% 28.9%

30.4%

29.2%

32.3%

33.4% 35.8%

36.0%

33.6%

35.6%

36.2%

36.2%

36.1%

36.3%

36.5%

Source: NMMA

% of adults boating No. of adults boating (in millions)

2010 reflects highest level of participation since 2000

Total Recreational Boats In Use

15.00

15.50

16.00

16.50

17.00

17.50

18.00

89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

E

Year

Mill

ion

s

U.S. Boating Participation History (1990 – 2010)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

19901991

19921993

19941995

19961997

19981999

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

2010

Milli

ons

of P

artic

ipan

ts

No. of Adults Boating

33.4%

28.3% 30.5%

29.2%

26.6% 26.0%

28.8% 28.9%

30.4%

29.2%

32.3%

33.4% 35.8%

36.0%

33.6%

35.6%

36.2%

36.2%

36.1%

36.3%

36.5%

Source: NMMA

% of adults boating No. of adults boating (in millions)

2010 reflects highest level of participation since 2000

Boating Participation – Exposure to

Boating as a Child Drives Adult Participation

36.9%

41.2%

1.2%

21.6%

Boated as child and parents owned a boatBoated as child and parents did not own a boatDid not boat as a child and parents owned a boat

9.3%

29.4%

1.2%

60.1%

Boated as a child and

parents owned a boat

Boated as a child and

parents did not own a

boatDid not boat as a child

and parents owned a

boatDid not boat as a child

and parents did not

own a boat

Childhood Boating Experience

Current Participant Non - Participant

Boat Owner Demographics by Ethnicity

2010 Any Powerboat

90.0%

3.4%

1.1% 0.8%3.0% 2.1% 1.1%

White Black Asian or Pacific IslanderNative American/Alaskan Native Mixed Racial Background Other RaceDeclined to Answer

Percent of United States Population

by Age Group and Ethnicity, 2000

Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

Percent of United States Population

by Age Group and Ethnicity, 2050


Numeric Change in the Projected U.S. Population by Race

and Hispanic Origin: 2000 to 2050 (in millions)


7.6

17.523.0

11.6

97.2

156.9

Non-Hispanic

White alone

Non-Hispanic

Black alone

Non-Hispanic

Asian alone

Non-Hispanic all

other races

Hispanic (any

race)

Total

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008 National Projections

Creating a Robust Future for Recreational Boating

Developing a shared industry

ten year growth action agenda

based on a shared vision of

success in 2021

Visions for 2021

1. Unified Industry Cross Sector Collaboration

Brings Results—Boating Now Preferred

Recreation Choice

2. Boating participation soars! New Generation and

Greater Diversity attracted to boating

3. Expanded Access to the Water and the Lifestyle

Has Been Achieved

4. Smarter and Fewer Regulations, and Better

Boating Education Results in Safe, Affordable and

Enjoyable Boating

Joint Actions to be Considered

• Encourage boaters to invite friends on the water

• Each stakeholder group commits to deliver collaborative efforts to their stakeholders

• Encourage universal support of Discover Boating’s Welcome to the Water Campaign

• Focus recreational boating recruitment more on kids and minorities

• Improve efforts on providing better boater education

• Form and strengthen industry partnerships

• Encourage greater diversity within the industry

• Expand American Boating Congress to all stakeholders

So…What’s Happening Today

Boating remains big business

$30+ billion

Estimated New Boat and Engine Sales by Key

Global Markets

$7.6

$2.1

$0.3

$7.0

$1.0 $1.0 $1.0

$2.0

$0.5

$-

$1.0

$2.0

$3.0

$4.0

$5.0

$6.0

$7.0

$8.0

Estimated New Boat/Engine Sales

in U.S. $ (Billions)

U.S. Recreational Boat Trade

$-

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$-

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Tra

de

Ba

lan

ce

Mill

ion

s

Ex

po

rts

/Im

po

rts

Mill

ion

s

Exports Imports Trade BalanceSource: USITC

Info-Link’s Bellwether: Retail Sales are Growing

for the First Time in 5 Years


So…What’s Happening

• Boating remains big business - $30 billion

• North America remains 44% of Global Market

and a Net Exporting Industry

• Retail Sales are Growing for First Time in 5

Years

• Wholesale Shipments of New Boats Up 23% in

Units and 33% in Dollars in 2011

ITR Economics’ Forecast of Shipments: Continuing Growth through 2015

-80

-40

0

40

80

120

-80

-40

0

40

80

120

'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15

Rates-of-Change

3/12

12/12

Source: ITR Economics

Comparison of Consumer Confidence to Wholesale

Boat Shipments as of February 14, 2012

Jan-12, 57.8

Nov-11, 139,489

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Dec-6

7

Dec-7

1

Dec-7

5

Sep

-78

Sep

-80

Sep

-82

Sep

-84

Sep

-86

Sep

-88

Sep

-90

Sep

-92

Sep

-94

Sep

-96

Sep

-98

Sep

-00

Sep

-02

Sep

-04

Sep

-06

Sep

-08

Sep

-10

Ro

llin

g 1

2-m

on

th B

oat

Sh

ipm

ents

Co

nsu

mer

Co

nfi

den

ce r

olli

ng

12

-mo

nth

Rolling 12-month CCI Rolling 12-month Wholesale Shipments

CP1

BP1

CV1

BT1

CP2

BP2

CV2

BT2

CP3

BP3

CV3

BT3

CP4

BP4

BT4 CV4

CP5

CV5

BP

BT

CP6

BP6

BT6 BP7

CV

6

Consumer Spending Back On Track

2011-Q4, 2%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

2000-Q1 2001-Q1 2002-Q1 2003-Q1 2004-Q1 2005-Q1 2006-Q1 2007-Q1 2008-Q1 2009-Q1 2010-Q1 2011-Q1

PER

CEN

T C

HA

NG

E FR

OM

PR

ECED

ING

PER

IOD

Real Personal Consumption Expenditures on Goods and Services

source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

So…What’s Happening

• Boating remains big business - $30 billion

• North America Remains 44% of Global Market and a Net Exporting Industry

• Retail Sales are Growing for First Time in 5 Years

• Wholesale Shipments of New Boats Expected to be Up 23% in Units and 33% in Dollars in 2011

• ITR Economic Forecast of Shipments Shows Continuing Growth through 2015

• Consumer Confidence, Light Vehicle Sales and Consumer Spending Improving

• 2012 Boat Shows Off to a Good Start

2012 Objectives.

• Grow awareness of Discover Boating/Welcome

to the Water among our target community.

• Increase positive perceptions of the boating

lifestyle.

• Increase participation in the boating lifestyle.

• Increase desire to own a boat.

• Deliver qualified leads to manufacturers and

dealers.

Point of Sale

New – Coming Soon

Beginners Guide

To Boating Brochure

Window Clings

Thank you for your continued support.

Have a great show!

thom dammrich - national marine manufacturers … dammrich industry... · the 1970s and 1980s were...

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