““Third Wave” of Third Wave” of DemocracyDemocracy

By Samuel Huntington

IISS T THEHE T THIRDHIRD W WAVEAVE O OVER?VER?

• When Huntington wrote his book “The Third Wave” in 1990, the wave was still near its peak.

• Today, we look at two articles written after the peak of the wave. – Samuel Huntington “After Twenty Years:

The Future of the Third Wave” 1997.– Thomas Carothers “The End of the

Transition Paradigm” 2002.

HHUNTINTON’SUNTINTON’S WWAVESAVES

Waves Years

First long wave of democratization 1828-1926

First reverse wave 1922-1942

Second, short wave of democratization 1643-1962

Second reverse wave 1958-1975

Third wave of democratization 1974-

TTHEHE F FIRSTIRST L LONGONG W WAVEAVE, , 1776-19141776-1914

• 1600s-1900• European Enlightenment• Liberalism• Constitutional Monarchies and

Republics• Voting Rights for All?• Women Excluded until 20th Century

TTHEHE F FIRSTIRST R REVERSEEVERSE W WAVEAVE, , 1922-19421922-1942

• End of WWI• Collapse of Tsarist, Ottoman and Austro‐Hungarian

Empires and birth of new states (Finland, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Yugoslavia, and Baltic States)

• Economic disruption of the Great Depression• Of 17 newly democracies (1910-31), only 4 remained• Military coups in Italy (1922), Poland, Latvia, Estonia,

Greece (1936). Portugal (1926)Brazil (1930), Argentina (1930), Spain (1939), Japan (early-1930s)

• Rise of Fascism, ideological and militaristic autocracies

TTHEHE S SECONDECOND W WAVEAVE, , 1943-19621943-1962

• End of WWII saw the defeat of Fascism in Italy and Germany; allies promoted democratic constitutions in Germany, Italy, Japan, Austria, Korea

• The remaining Colonial powers were shaken and rise of independence movements

• Although most newly independent states in Africa adopted democratic constitutions, few consolidated

• Some progressive movements and popular elections in Latin America (Uruguay, Brazil, Costa Rica, Argentina, Peru, Venezuela)

• Despite some setbacks, the total number of democracies worldwide grew in this period

TTHEHE S SECONDECOND W WAVEAVE

• Post-WWII• Decolonization in Latin America, Asia,

Africa• Expanded notions of citizenship and civic

participation in the developed world• Europe – Social Rights, Social Democracy• US - Civil Rights Movement

TTHEHE T THIRDHIRD W WAVEAVE, , 1974+1974+

• End of Portuguese dictatorship 1974• In Spain, death of Franco 1975• Wave of democratization in Latin America and Asia

in late 1970s• In the 1970’s and 80’s the Soviet and Eastern bloc

economies came under pressure• Under Gorbachev, the Soviet Union loosened its

grip on Central and Eastern Europe. In 1989, practically all of the communist regimes in the region fell

• With the support of the EU, some post‐Communist states successfully consolidated their democracies. But many also remain unreconstructed (Eurasia) or poorly consolidated (Georgia, Ukraine).

A NA NEWEW R REVERSEEVERSE W WAVEAVE

• “Democratic recession” since 2000• Not all of the new democracies have

consolidated and some have reversed (e.g., Gambia in 1977, Thailand, Fiji, Kenya, Russia)

• Concerns have also been raised about growing apathy and disaffection in consolidated democracies

• Only the whole, the latest wave has not come to an end, but shows some signs of weakening and possible reversals.

HHUNTINGTON’SUNTINGTON’S P PROPOSITIONSROPOSITIONS

• No single factor is sufficient to explain the development of democracy

• Democratization in each country is the result of a combination of causes

• The combination of causes differs for each wave

• The causes responsible for the initial regime transition differ from those responsible for democratic consolidation