THE THIRD WAVE

Democratization in the late twentieth centuryBy Samuel D. HuntingtonLi Yuan CHEN/Fumie NAKAMURA

THE START OF THE THIRD WAVE

Chapter 1 What?

Beginning: At twenty-five minutes after midnight,

Thursday, April 25, 1974, in Lisbon, Portugal.

The following 15 years : - Scope: Portugal → Global - 30 countries: Authoritarianism →

Democracy - A score of other countries were also

affected by the democratic wave.

Chapter 1What?

The meaning of democracy

Concept of Democracy:As a form of government

Old Usage: Greek Philosophers Modern Usage: (mid-20c)terms of

sources of authority for government, purpose served by government, and procedures for constituting government.

Central Procedure of Democracy - Joseph Schumpeter (1942) Capitalism,

Socialism, and Democracy : Selection of leaders through competitive elections by the people they govern.

How to define political system as democracy pp. 7

- Robert Dahl: two dimensions---Contestation and participation

The critical point in the process of democracy: pp. 9

The replacement of a government that was not chosen this way by one that is selected in a free, open, and fair election.

Several other points about defining democracy

1. The definition of democracy in terms of elections is a minimal definition.

2. Conceivably a society could choose its political leaders through democratic means, but these political leaders might not exercise real power.

3. The fragility or stability of a democratic political system.

4. Whether to treat democracy and nondemocracy as a dichotomous or continuous variable.

5. Nondemocratic regimes do not have electoral competition and widespread voting participation.

Totalitarian Authoritarianism

A single party, led by one man

Single leader or small group of leaders, No party or weak party

A pervasive and powerful secret police

No mass mobilization

A highly developed ideology/ideal society

No ideology

Government control mass communication and economic organizations

Limited government

Chapter 1 What?

The waves of democratization

Initial push in the West

English Revolution The fundamental Orders of ConnecticutJANUARY 14,1639“First written constitution of modern democracy.”

Waves Year

First, long wave of democratization

1828-1926

First reverse wave 1922-1942

Second, short wave of democratization

1943-1962

Third wave of democratization 1971-

The third wave of democratization First: Southern Europe Late 1970s: move to Latin America also

in Asia. The end of the decade: engulfed the

communist world. The movement toward democracy was a

global one. The democratization waves and the

reverse waves suggest a two-step-forward, one- step backward pattern.

Chapter 1 What?

The issues of democratization

1. Political democracy is closely associated with freedom of the individual.

2. Political stability and form of government are two different variables.

3. The spread of democracy has implications for international relations.

The future of democracy in the world is special importance to Americans.

WHY DO DEMOCRATIZATION WAVES OCCUR?

Ch.2 “WHY”

4 Possible Explanations of Democratization

Waves

Single Cause

One single cause(A) can cause a democratization(x) in multiple countries. For example: a rise of a new superpower, major change in international distribution of power, war.

Parallel Development

Democratization could be caused by similar developments in the same independent variables (a1, a2…)

For example: when a country has reached a certain level of GNP, it is likely to develop democracy.

Snowballing

An important cause for democratization occurs in one country (a1) and it triggers further democratization movements in different countries. (Not simultaneously.)

Prevailing Nostrum

The specific individual cause of political change (a1 to d4) & common set of political beliefs (z=nostrum to the existing problems) produce similar responses (x1, x2..).

Simultaneous.

DEPENDENT AND INDEPENDENT VARIABLES

Dependent Variable: Democratization =dynamic, complex.≠ Democracy

What could be the Independent variable?

POSSIBLE INDEPENDENT

VARIABLES OF THE THIRD WAVE

1) Declining Legitimacy and the Performance Dilemma

2) Global Economic Development of the 1960s

3) Religious Changes 4) Policies of “External Actors”

(Europe and US, etc.) 5) ”Snowballing,” Demonstration

effects

1)Declining Legitimacy and the Performance Dilemma

Authoritarianism: justified by nationalism and ideology.

The victory of the Western Allies in WWII(cause of the second wave) : People came to accept the ideas of democracy

For example; One-party system (i.e. Communist regime)

2)Global Economic Development of the 1960s

3 economic factors that affected the third wave: 1) the oil price hikes and Marxist-Leninist

constraints

2) by the 1970s many countries had achieved overall levels of economic development that provided an economic basis for democracy

3) rapid economic growth in some countries destabilized authoritarian regimes

3)Religious Changes Strong correlation exists between

Western Christianity and democracy. I.e. Christianity expanded in South Korea in the 1960s

to 70s. Christianity offered a surer doctrinal and

institutional basis for opposing political repression.

Economic growth of catholic countries Change “within” Catholic Church itself Efforts by Pope on global base, and more

locally by individual priests

4)Policies of “External Actors” Governments and institutions of

external to a country can influence democratization.

European institutions US: policy toward promotion of human

rights in other countries became more active in early 70s. Carter and Reagan administration

Soviet Union Mikhail Gorbachev

5)”Snowballing,” Demonstration effects

Contagion, diffusion, or snowballing, or domino effect of democratization from one country to another. It shows that it can be done and

stimulate the second movement. It shows HOW it can be done.

Expansion of global communication was necessary.

To summarize…

Multiple factors contributed to the breakdown or weakening of authoritarian regimes during 1970s and 1980s.

Variety of factors influenced the emergence of democratic regimes during this period.

Last but not least…Democracies are created not by causes but by causers. Political leaders and publics have to act.