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23/06/2016 These Types Of People Never Succeed At Work

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Raghuram Rajan Controversy: Why Subramanian

Swamy HAS a Point

There is a sense of anger among Indian intellectual class, stunned by the demand

made by Dr Subramanian Swamy for sacking of Dr Raghuram Rajan - the most

respected, ever charming, hottest RBI Governor India has ever had. From Shobha

De to newspaper editors to the average Joe, Dr Raghuram Rajan commands a

following rivaling that of Salman Khan.

Not only analysts, commentators and financial daily editors have come out insupport of Dr Rajan, even common public seems to be completely unanimous in

their support of Dr Rajan and all the good work he has been doing for Indian

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economy. Going by the number of editorials / articles and public forum

comments posted in support of Dr Rajan, one can easily conclude that India is in

safe hands, or at least perceived by the general public to be in safe hands.

There is no denying the fact that Dr Raghuram Rajan is one of the finest brains

when it comes to Economics. Applauded by some as one of the very few

economists to warn about 2008 crisis much ahead of the time, he is widely

respected and credited with sound understanding of complex macroeconomics

issues.

The last time a central banker got so much respect and public support was Alan

Greenspan in 2002 era. The other Economist, who got so much respect from

Indian public / experts / intellectuals, was Dr Manmohan Singh as Indias PM in

2004-09 era. Needless to say, public opinion is hardly the right barometer for

gauging long-term impact if one goes by the disdain both these gentlemen now

attract from academia and general public alike - as public opinion, fickle at best,

is always swayed by perception rather than hard facts.

The arguments made in support of Dr Rajan are multifold and cover almost every

possible ground to demonstrate how Rajan is the best man for the job and how

wrong is Subramanian Swamy. The main arguments given by supporters of Dr

Rajan are as follows:

1. Dr Rajan has been able to keep inflation under control by keeping interest

rates high initially and didnt succumb to political pressure (greatest virtue in the

country of Singham). This hard stance towards inflation kept cheap money out

and didnt allow buildup of another sub-prime scenario in India.

2. He has cracked open the NPA issue of banks and brought out the muck in

open. This cleansing of bank balance-sheets will usher in a new era oftransparency and will fix the nexus of politician-banker-bureaucrat forever, as the

public sector banks are the primary source of crony capitalism and high real


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estate prices in India.

3. He has published far more papers than Dr Swamy and is cited / peer-reviewed

many times more compared to Dr Swamy.

4. He is very well respected by International media and considered to be one of

the best brains in Economics

5. He is a far better economist than Dr Subramanian Swamy who is more of a

lone ranger / fringe politician.

All the above arguments seem quite valid on the face of it, but then keep in mind

that the criticism of Raghuram Rajan is not made by some usual analyst but none

other than Dr Subramanian Swamy - one of the sharpest brains around with an

enviable track record of proving his points. So rather than jumping in defense of

Raghuram Rajan, it is much better to have a deeper look at the critique, since Dr

Swamy has a reputation of not making false claims without support from

necessary data. So rather than debating on issues like nos of papers published,

who is the better economist, etc., let us focus on the major issue of interest rates

and inflation, which seems to be the bone of contention among fan-boys and Dr

Swamy.

There is no debate that inflation has remained within limits since Dr Rajan took

over RBI in 2013 however, the low inflation has been more of a function of

massive drop in oil prices and commodity prices. Since 2013, oil prices have

dropped from the heights of US$ 90 a barrel to US$ 40 a barrel (55% drop).

Further, by choosing not to pass this price drop benefit to consumers, Indian govt

has been able to manage its high fiscal deficit, which in turn calmed down its

currency. Further, Modi Govt has been quite proactive in controlling food

inflation by taking quick actions, be it import of food items or action againsthoarders. Hence, to say that inflation in India is down due to strong monetary

policy and high interest rates is nothing but a big myth. In fact a little bit of


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movement in oil prices in last quarter has already perked up the inflation.

Hence, it is obvious that high interest rate regime has nothing to do with inflation

and in fact every thing to do with low growth faced by India. Interestingly,

everyone has jumped on Subramanian Swamy, harping on the fact of rate cuts not

passed by banks to consumers and talking of headline interest rate, while totally

forgetting that Swamy is not talking of main interest rate but interest rate

available to SME sector. Interestingly, while interest rates for large corporate

hover around 9%, interest rates for SME sector hover in the range of 16% to 22%

and no attempt has been made to bring down this rate.

Worldwide, and especially in the Western world, monetary policies are effective

tools to manage inflation however, the economists trained in Western view need

to understand that India is not West and does not have the luxury of enormous

resources or well-oiled supply chain. Inflation in India is not a function of more

demand but supply side constraints, which become worse with higher interest

rates and crony capitalism. So far, not only has RBI failed in bringing down

overall lending rates in general economy, it has also not worked on main inflation

which is plaguing middle class and poor in India.

Unfortunately, all discussions related to inflation in India revolve around food

prices, while in actual the bigger share is consumed by housing sector. On an

average, almost 34% of a household income goes towards meeting the housing

cost (Rent/EMI), and thanks to liberal policies / crony capitalism indulged by

banks (primarily PSU Banks), the prices of housing have remained strong in India

and in fact are much higher than even the prices in Dr Rajans adopted country.

In 2008, when the whole world was reeling under severe liquidity crunch and

asset prices collapsed like anything, Indian real estate and Indian economy

remained insular and that was not due to sheer brain of Dr Manmohan Singh but

sheer luck in the form of 6th Pay Commission and crony capitalism of PSU banks(banks pumped capital in real estate firms and thus allowed them to keep prices

high) that saved the day for Indian economy and builders.


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However, this benevolence of Indian banks created other victims - that is overall

economic growth in general and middle class in particular. The continued high

real estate cost (EMI/Rent) left hardly any surplus cash in the hands of an

average consumer and in turn led to continued slowdown in the Indian industry

(a fact clearly visible if one goes by almost flat growth of white goods, commercial

vehicles, etc.), which was already reeling under high interest costs.

Now one may argue as to what is the relation between housing prices with

inflation and interest rates. By keeping interest rates for housing at 11% while

lending rate for SME at 14%, RBI has crowded out money from all sectors and

diverted it to housing. Given the power of leverage and faulty income tax laws,

investors are earning 30% to 36% returns from real estate and thus creating

capital scarcity and higher interest rates. Today, an SME or a hospital or an

educational institute pay interest rates in order of 14%+ while housing loans are

disbursed at 11% or lower, and on top of it get significant income tax rebate.

Dr Rajan, in his 2005 address, had observed that ongoing financial developments

had made the world a riskier place (no, he didnt predict the 2008 crisis as

believed popularly) and raised concerns regarding banks inability to handle risks

beyond a limit due to flawed reward structure. Interestingly, despite deep insight

into the workings of banking system, the RBI Governor in India never restrained

banks from providing additional liquidity to real estate or stopped fancy

derivative schemes like interest subvention, etc. This continued liquidity given to

housing sector in the form of lower interest rates and subvention schemes has

created massive build up of risk in Indian banking system in the form of housing.

Strangely, Dr Rajan didnt take any action in terms of normalizing exposure to

housing sector.

Hence, Dr Subramanian Swamy is correct when he says that Dr Raghuram Rajan

has wrecked the economy by wrong policies, since continuous 22% interest ratehas wrecked SME sector due to high costs and low demand as average household

has hardly any cash surplus left after paying for real estate costs (Rent/EMI).


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So rather than saving and steering Indian economy, the policies of present

Governor have pushed India in a unique crisis with almost no industrial growth

coupled with high interest rates where there is massive unemployment or no job

growth except some small slivers of hope on account of massive funding to

startups.

Now with oil slowly limping back to US$ 50 per barrel and above, and 7th Pay

Commission on the horizon, Indian economy is going to face double whammy for

which neither Indian Finance Ministry nor RBI are well prepared.

So why is there such wide support for Dr Raghuram Rajan and so much disdain

for Dr Swamy? Interestingly, the reasons dont lie in economics data or hard facts

but in human behaviour.

We all love Dr Rajan because he is so much like us and represents our aspirations

- be it his education (IIT, IIMA, MIT), his career path (Chicago Professor, IMF,

RBI Governor), which we all aspire for us or for our kids to have. Not in the

distant past, we all went gaga over a certain other economist who ruled this

country for 10 years and despite all hard data / evidence about lack of moral

compass and corruption, we kept him revered and on the altar of perfection. So

this is basically about us and not at all about Dr Rajan or Dr Manmohan Singh.

Now on Dr Swamy the reason for the disdain and smirks thrown at him by the

great middle class is obvious as Dr Swamy is that super-intelligent lone warrior in

the class whom we all secretly admire but have none of the intellect, guts or

courage, and hence mock him, because however hard we try, we cant be him.

But then when was economics about data and not about human behaviour!!!

___________

The author is an entrepreneur by heart and VC by profession and have keen


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Written by

interested in income -inequality, rural poverty and agriculture income apart

rom usual tech / start-up and economics and writes regularly at

www.fringenotes.in

You may also like following article :

2014 : Economic Crisis at the gate.This article published in Jan 2014,

argued that India will face lack of growth and economic crisis despite best

intentions of upcoming new Govt and usual monetary economics tools of interest

rate / inflation wont work.

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Like Comment

Gagandeep Singh

Good use of language and facts, but the results have been deduced rather

arbitrarily. On one side Shailesh agrees that Govt did not allow drop in oil

prices despite international crude oil price drop, on the other he credits the

inflation check to dropped oil prices. He managed inflation despite govt

holding on to oil prices.

The impact was clearly seen when govt increased prices back and that

goes against the very basics of this article.

The stability in rupee, opening up of dollar window to stop the sharp rupee

decline in matter of days, not dropping interest on home loans and pushing

realtors to drop housing prices etc are nowhere mentioned.

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Remember, one percent change on interest rates only changes as much in

EMI but drop in housing prices is required for atleast 40 to 50% which only

builders can do.

Like(5) Reply(4) 21 days ago

Hareesh Sarnam, B.Arch, M.E., LEED AP, Rubik Angelo Barar, Parthiban

Bharathi, +2

The fallacy in Sailesh Singh's inflation check argument that

Gagandeep has correctly pointed out !

Like(2) 13 hours ago

Rubik Angelo Barar andASMA KHAN

Santosh Kumar Singh

Good explanation Gagandeep. On your builders' point of home

price reduction, they operate with a 35-40% margin.They have

the staying power for high prices for a significant period now

surprisingly. When will they reduce their margins is tough to

call. However, the result is, there are fund houses now that

have launched dedicated instruments to acquire distressed

realty assets. They are promising better returns relative to

PE/mezzanine investments. Additionally, towers are being

launched instead of entire projects sizes of apartments are

substantially smaller and some apartments in Bangalore now

sell at Rs 29 lakh onwards. Can you beat that? Necessity to

sell in stressed times is, naturally, the mother of invention on

the marketing and sales front.

Like(1) 1 day ago

Rubik Angelo Barar

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These Types Of People Never Succeed At Work

Experience and knowledge are rapidly losing their relevance to success in the

workplace. Harvard economist David Deming studied workplace tasks from 1980

to the present day and found that those that emphasize social skills grew by a

whopping 24%, while tasks requiring technical know-how and intelligence

experienced little growth. Deming also found that salaries increased the most for

obs that place extra emphasis on social skills.

With the increasing emphasis on social skills, those who lack them stand out like

a zebra in a field of horses. We all know the types: the person who wont stop

talking when youre trying to meet a deadline, the one who blatantly takes credit

for your ideas, or the one who callously leaves you to pull an all-nighter to fix

their mistake. The list goes on.

There are a lot of otherwise intelligent people out there who cant stop shooting

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themselves in the foot. Sadly, their lack of self-awareness and social skills are

massive detriments to their careers.

Social skills and self-awareness are matters of emotional intelligence (EQ), and

TalentSmarts research with over a million people has shown that emotional

intelligence is responsible for 58% of job performance. Those who lack emotional

intelligence are at a significant disadvantage.

There are certain types of people whose lack of emotional intelligence harms their

careers more than others. By studying them, you can avoid becoming one of

them, and, if your reading experience is anything like my writing experience,

youll see bits of yourself in some of these profiles. Use thatknowledge to build

your self-awareness, make adjustments, and grow as a person.

The coward. Fear is an extremely powerful motivator. This is why presidential

candidates tell people that their opponent will destroy the economy and

advertisements warn that smoking kills. In the workplace, people overcome by

fear resort to irrational and damaging behavior. Cowardly colleagues are quick to

blame others and to cover up important mistakes, and they fail to stand up for

what is right.

The Dementor. In J. K. Rowlings Harry Potter series, Dementors are evil

creatures that suck peoples souls out of their bodies, leaving them merely as

shells of humans. Whenever a Dementor enters the room, it goes dark and cold

and people begin to recall their worst memories. Rowling said that she developed

the concept for Dementors based on highly negative peoplethe kind of people

who have the ability to walk into a room and instantly suck the life out of it.

Dementors suck the life out of the room by imposing their negativity and


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pessimism upon everyone they encounter. Their viewpoints are always glass half

empty, and they can inject fear and concern into even the most benign situations.

The arrogant.Arrogant people are a waste of your time because they see

everything you do as a personal challenge. Arrogance is false confidence, and it

always masks major insecurities. A University of Akron study found that

arrogance is correlated with a slew of problems in the workplace. Arrogant people

tend to be lower performers and more disagreeable and to have more cognitive

problems than the average person.

The group-thinker. Group-thinkers choose the path of least resistance and are

famous for propagating the this is how weve always done it mentality. If you

find yourself getting brainwashed with what everyone else believes, be careful the

status quo never leads to greatness.

The short-changed. The short-changed are quick to blame their lack of

accomplishment on a lack of opportunity. While a lucky break may put a little

wind in a successful persons sails, they got where they are through hard work.

What the short-changed dont realize is that their attitude is whats short-

changing them, not their circumstances.

The temperamental.Some people have absolutely no control over their

emotions. They will lash out at you and project their feelings onto you, all the

while thinking that youre the one causing their malaise. Temperamental people

perform poorly because their emotions cloud their judgment and their lack of

self-control destroys their relationships. Be wary of temperamental people when

push comes to shove they will use you as their emotional toilet.

The victim.Victims are tough to identify because you initially empathize with

their problems. But, as time passes, you begin to realize that their time of needis all the time. Victims actively push away any personal responsibility by making

every speed bump they encounter into an uncrossable mountain. They dont see

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tough times as opportunities to learn and grow from instead, they see them as an

out.

The gullible.You cant help but feel sorry for the gullible type. Theyre the ones

who find themselves babysitting the bosss kids the morning after pulling a late

night of work . . . on a Sunday! For whatever reason, gullible people (often

newbies) go with the flow until the gentle river becomes a tumultuous ocean. Its

okay to negotiate your salary, its okay to say no, and its okay to question the way

things are done. Youll earn a lot more respect if you stand up for yourself when

the time is right.

The apologizer. For every person out there who owes an apology, theres

another who apologizes too often. People who lack confidence are always

apologizing for their ideas and actions. They fear failure and believe that

apologizing will act as a safety net. Instead, unnecessary apologies cheapen their

ideas and make them less likely to stick. Its important that your tone of voice and

body language reflect the importance of your ideas. Stating an idea or opinion as

a question is just as bad as apologizing. If you really believe something is worth

sharing, then own it and share it with confidence.

None of these behaviors are a career death sentence because they can be

eradicated through improved emotional intelligence. All it takes is a little self-

awareness and a strong desire to change.

What other types of people belong on this list? Please share in the comments

section below, as I learn just as much from you as you do from me.

Dr. Travis Bradberryis the award-winning co-author of the #1 bestsellingbook,Emotional Intelligence 2.0,and the cofounder of TalentSmart, the world's

leading provider of emotional intelligence testsand training, serving more than

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75% of Fortune 500 companies. His bestselling books have been translated into

25 languages and are available in more than 150 countries. Dr. Bradberry has

written for, or been covered by,Newsweek, TIME, BusinessWeek, Fortune,

Forbes, Fast Company, Inc., USA Today, The Wall Street Journal, The

Washington Post, and The Harvard Business Review.

If you'd like to learn how to increase your emotional intelligence (EQ), consider

taking the onlineEmotional Intelligence Appraisaltest that's included with the

Emotional Intelligence 2.0book. Your test results will pinpoint which of the

book's 66 emotional intelligence strategies will increase your EQ the most.

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Dena Lawless

Hi Dr. Bradberry, I like your book and general purpose here..I think you

forgot "the bully" or the gang leader.

Like(5) Reply 14 hours ago

Panayota Yeorgopoulou, Andriette Nel , Umair Bin Muzaffar, +2

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Hours away from Brexit and it's too close to call

Musk gets crushed and more news

Britons go to the polls Thursday for a historic vote on whether the UK

should #Remainor #Leavethe European Union. A very-British 10-week

campaignhas established one thing: the nation appears to be so evenly dividedon

Brexit that the outcome is too close to call so close that no British broadcaster

commissioned an exit poll over concerns about accuracy. Also unclear: The

ramifications of either outcome. But for an idea of the range of opinions, check

out our coverage.

Samsung is pouring $1.2 billion in the "internet of things." Half of the

four-year spendwill go to internal R&D and the rest will be used to invest in

Catch up here

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startups. Also notable, as noted by the Wall Street Journal: This is more

"evidence of Samsung's increasing opennessto partnerships and strategic

investments, which it long shunned."

Tesla's proposal to buy SolarCity was not well received.Where to begin

Tesla shares plunged, Oppenheimer downgraded the stockand "high-profile"investment manager Jim Chanosslammed it as "corporate governance at its

worst." Musk owns about 20% of each company but will recuse himself from

approval votes. This means large institutional holders will get to decide, and

"there are signs," Reuters reports, "that some of the biggest funds holding shares

of both companies might be open to a deal."What is LinkedIn? Join Today Sign In
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The China company whose iPhone 6 copyright infringement claim was

upheld by a Beijing regulator "barely exists,"reports the Wall Street

Journal. Shenzhen Baili used to be a player but fell victim to the "rapid boom and

bust" of China's smartphone industry. It has no physical or virtual presence (WSJ

reporters called, visited, clicked). Parent company Digione, doesexist, and is

pressing the claim for a device which doesn't. The issue here is not whether

Digione makes phones anymore, but whether the iPhone 6 infringes on this

patent, a company attorney explains.

Michigan's attorney general sued seven companies over the Flint

water crisis. Topping the listwere the US arm of French water consulting

company Veolia Environnement SA and Texas engineering firm Lockwood,

Andrews & Newnam. The civil suit alleges the firms caused "the Flint Water Crisis

to occur, continue and worsen." Four officials have resigned, criminal charges

were against three of them, and the lead-tainted water may have been responsible

for 12 deaths from Legionnaires Disease.

Cover Art:A boat from the 'Fishing for Leave' group sails by the British Houses

of Parliament as part of a 'Brexit flotilla' on the river Thames as #Remain

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18/37



Written by

roponents trail in a dinghy London, June 15, 2016.

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these types of people never succeed at work

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