the world must achieve greenhouse gas neutrality some time ...€¦ · gas neutrality some time in...

1 28 March 2018

LIEBREICHAssociates

@mliebreichMIECF, Macao 2019

Image: UNFCCC

Paris

The world must achieve greenhouse

gas neutrality some time in the

second half of the century

Paris Agreement

December 2015

2 28 March 2018

LIEBREICHAssociates


Limiting warming to 1.5 degrees

Celsius is possible within the laws

of chemistry and physics but doing

so would require unprecedented

changes.

Image: IPCC

Urgency of climate action

IPCC

Global Warming of 1.5°C Report

October 2018

3 28 March 2018

LIEBREICHAssociates


Source: Stockholm Institute

Planetary boundaries

4 28 March 2018

LIEBREICHAssociates


Source: Independent; Cleantechnica, Oilprice.com, Businessgreen; FT; Bloomberg; BBC

Clean energy news flow

5 28 March 2018

LIEBREICHAssociates


Image: Wikimedia Commons

Solar and wind are not taking over the world

The great hope for a quick and

sweeping transition to renewable

energy is wishful thinking.

Vaclav Smil

Distinguished Professor Emeritus in the Faculty of Environment

at the University of Manitoba in Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada

6 28 March 2018

LIEBREICHAssociates


2040: Welcome to the Three-Third World

1/3 of electricity

will be wind and solar

1/3 of vehicles will be

electric

Economy will be 1/3 more

energy productive

Images: Tesla, Wallpaper Mania, Cleantechnica

7 28 March 2018

LIEBREICHAssociates


1/3 of electricity



electric


energy productive



8 28 March 2018

LIEBREICHAssociates


Global clean energy investment and capacity installations 2004 – 2018

$317 billion

Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and government R&D, and spending for

digital energy and energy storage projects (not reported in quarterly statistics). Includes large hydro. Source: BNEF, IRENA

$95bn$121bn

$181bn

$228bn

$258bn$240bn

$320bn

$350bn$324bn

$302bn

$369bn

$413bn

$358bn

$402bn

$348bn

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

$354 billion

36GW

91GW

179 GW

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

9 28 March 2018

LIEBREICHAssociates


10

100

1,000

100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000

Cumulative installed capacity (MW)

€/MWh (real 2018)

2008

2018

1985

0.1

1

10

100

1 100 10,000 1,000,000

$/W (real 2018)

2003

1976

Cumulative capacity (MW)

2018

Source: BNEFNote: LCOE in real 2017

Wind – learning rate 15% Solar – learning rate 24-29%

Wind and solar experience curves

10 28 March 2018

LIEBREICHAssociates


Solar scale-up 2005 – 2018

Images: Nissan; Enel Villanueva solar plant

2005 2018

11 28 March 2018

LIEBREICHAssociates


Evolution of wind turbine heights and output

20001995199019th C

300m

200m

100m

1-12kW0.5 MW

1.2 MW2 MW

2005

4 MW

2010

7 MW

2015

9 MW

2025

13-15 MW

Sources: Various; Bloomberg New Energy Finance

12 28 March 2018

LIEBREICHAssociates


Unsubsidised clean energy world records 2011

Country:

Bidder:

Signed:

Construction:

USA

Various

2010

2012

Solar PV Onshore wind Offshore wind

Country:

Bidder:

Signed:

Construction:

Spain

Various

2010

2012

Country:

Bidder:

Signed:

Construction:

UK

SSE

2009

2011

US$ 17.0 c/kWhUS$ 8.0 c/kWhUS$ 17.0 c/kWhSource: Various manufacturers and project developersNote: images are illustrative only

13 28 March 2018

LIEBREICHAssociates


Unsubsidised clean energy world records 2018

Country:

Bidder:

Signed:

Construction:

Mexico

Neoen

Nov 2017

2019

Solar PV Onshore wind

Country:

Bidder:

Signed:

Construction:

Mexico

Enel

Nov 2017

2018

Offshore wind

Country:

Bidder:

Signed:

Construction:

Denmark

Vattenfall

2016

2022

US$ 5.3 c/kWhUS$ 1.77 c/kWhUS$ 1.97 c/kWhSource: Various manufacturers and project developersNote: images are illustrative only

14 28 March 2018

LIEBREICHAssociates


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

0

20

40

60

80

100

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2017

GW installed$/W

Crystalline silicon PV module price

Energy miracle? Solar

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

0

20

40

60

80

100

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2017

GW installed$/W

Crystalline silicon PV module price Cumulative installed capacity

Costs down

300x

Source: BNEFNote: Prices in 2017 $

15 28 March 2018

LIEBREICHAssociates


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

0

20

40

60

80

100

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2017

GW installed$/W

Crystalline silicon PV module price Cumulative installed capacity

Energy miracle? Solar

Costs down

300x

Cumulative

installations

up 200,000x

Source: BNEFNote: Prices in 2017 $

16 28 March 2018

LIEBREICHAssociates


Source: Liebreich Associates; BNEF; BPNote: Calculated as GWh renewable production / GWh consumption

RE proportion of power generation 2007 – 2017

8%17%

US

61% 66%

Canada

88% 81%Brazil

16%

52%

Italy

14%36%

Germany

18% 19%

India

15%27%

China

9%17%

Japan

8%20%

Australia

8%20%

Australia

Wind & solar

Other renewables

19%34%

Spain

5%

33%

UK

17 28 March 2018

LIEBREICHAssociates


Source: BNEF

G20 new clean energy investment 2004 – 2018

Note: Excludes large hydro. Russian investment amounted to <$1bn.

China US EU Germany Japan UK India Italy Spain Brazil

Australia France Canada S. Korea Indonesia Mexico S. Africa Turkey Argentina Saudi Arabia

0

50

100

150

04 17

$bn

0

50

100

150

04 17

$bn

18 28 March 2018

LIEBREICHAssociates


Coal capacity factors, selected countries

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

India IndonesiaSouth Africa Australia ChinaUS

Source: BNEF, IEA, EIA, India CEA, NERSA, Australia DOWSNotes: Based on end-of-year capacity figures; 2017 is estimated

19 28 March 2018

LIEBREICHAssociates


Source: Liebreich Associates; BP Statistical ReviewNote: Adjusted to standard coal equivalent

Coal production Coal consumption

Coal has peaked

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Mt/yr

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Mt/yr

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

2002

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

2017

Mt/yr

North America S. & Central America Europe Eurasia Africa APAC

20 28 March 2018

LIEBREICHAssociates


Source: IEA

Global investment in coal supply2000 – 2017

0

50

100

150

200

2000 2005 2010 2015 2017

$ bn (nominal)

21 28 March 2018

LIEBREICHAssociates


Source: Liebreich Associates; Coalswarm

Net new coal generation capacity 2006 – 2018

-100

-50

0

50

100

2006 2010 2015 2018

GW

RoW

India

China

Retirements

Net additions

22 28 March 2018

LIEBREICHAssociates


Source: BNEF

Gas plays an important role, but increasingly for flexibility only

-120

-80

-40

0

40

80

120

2017-20 2021-25 2026-30 2031-35 2036-40

China India Rest of APAC AmericasEurope ME & Africa ROW

-1,200

-800

-400

0

400

800

1,200

2021-2025 2026-2030 2031-2035 2036-2040

Δ generation (TWh)

Coal Gas

Incremental change in gas consumption Incremental change in generation

23 28 March 2018

LIEBREICHAssociates


India China U.S.

Nuclear vs. non-hydro renewable generation in selected countries 1990 – 2017

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

% electricity generation

Nuclear Non-hydro renewablesSource: BP; Liebreich Associates

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015


24 28 March 2018

LIEBREICHAssociates


CoalCoal

Coal

Gas

Gas

Gas

Oil

Nuclear

Nuclear

Nuclear

Other RE

Other RE

Other RE

Wind

Wind

Wind

SolarSolar

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

IEA NPS 2017Electricity


BNEF NEO 2040Electricity

Source: BNEF NEO 2018; IEA WEO 2018; Liebreich Associates

Wind and solar contribution to global power generation

39%6%

By 2040

20 to 39% of power

globally will be from

variable sources

CoalCoal

Coal

Gas

Gas

Gas

Oil

Nuclear

Nuclear

Nuclear

Other RE

Other RE

Other RE

Wind

Wind

Wind

SolarSolar

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%




22%

CoalCoal

Coal

Gas

Gas

Gas

Oil

Nuclear

Nuclear

Nuclear

Other RE

Other RE

Other RE

Wind

Wind

Wind

SolarSolar

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%




25 28 March 2018

LIEBREICHAssociates


1/3 of electricity



electric


energy productive



26 28 March 2018

LIEBREICHAssociates


0

100

200

300

400

500

Q1

Q3

Q1

Q3

Q1

Q3

Q1

Q3

Q1

Q3

Q1

Q3

Q1

Q3

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

thousand sold

0

100

200

300

400

500

Q1

Q3

Q1

Q3

Q1

Q3

Q1

Q3

Q1

Q3

Q1

Q3

Q1

Q3

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

thousand sold

0

100

200

300

400

500

Q1

Q3

Q1

Q3

Q1

Q3

Q1

Q3

Q1

Q3

Q1

Q3

Q1

Q3

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

thousand sold

APAC EMEA AMER

Quarterly EV sales by regionQ1 2012 – Q4 2018

CAGR 86% CAGR 62% CAGR 54%

Source: BNEF

27 28 March 2018

LIEBREICHAssociates


10

100

1,000

10,000

100 10,000 1,000,000Cumulative capacity (MW)

€/MWh (real 2018)

2018

1985

Solar – learning rate 28.5% Wind – learning rate 15% Batteries – learning rate 20%

Experience curves

Source: BNEF

0

1

10

100

1,000

10,000

1 1,000 1,000,000

$/W (real 2018)

1976

Cumulative capacity (MW)

2018

10

100

1,000

10,000

1 1,000 1,000,000Cumulative production (MWh)

$/MWh (real 2018)

2010

2018

28 28 March 2018

LIEBREICHAssociates


Source: BNEF EVO 2018

US medium BEV price breakdown, share of battery costs and ICE price

49%

37%

31%27%

24%21% 18% 16%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

2018 $ (thousand)

Battery

Powertrain

Vehicle

ICE

Unsubsidised showroom

price crossover with ICEs

starting 2025

Unsubsidised TCO

crossover with ICEs

starting 2017

29 28 March 2018

LIEBREICHAssociates


0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

Small vans

Runabouts

Hatchbacks

Sedans

Sports cars

SUVs/Trucks

Source: Bloomberg New Energy

Finance, Images various. Notes:

Not exhaustive. (*) Range is

speculated

BEV model availability, 2008-20

Venturi Fetish Tesla Roadster

20082009

Mitsubishi i-MiEV

BMW mini e

Smith Edison

2010

M-B E-CellHyundai

BlueOn

Nissan Leaf

Kia Ray

2011

Ford Focus

Renault KangooM-B Vito

BYD e6

Renault Fluence

2012Renault Twizy

Smart

ForTwo

Fiat 500e

Renault Zoe ZE

Tesla Model S

Toyota

RAV4

Honda Fit

CODA EV

2013

Peugeot Partner

Exagon Furtive

M-B SLS eDrive

BMW i3

Chevy Spark

Mahindra e2o

VW

e-Up

2014

VW e-Golf

Nissan eNV200

M-B B-Class

JAC iEV4

2015Kandi Panda Bollore

Bluesummer

Mullen 700e

ChangAn

Eado

2016

Chevy Bolt

Audi R8 E-tron

BYD T3

Mahindra eVerito

2017

Qianto Q50

Aston Martin

RapidE

Tesla Model 3

Hyundai Ioniq

2018

Land Rover

Defender

Honda Clarity

2019

Porsche E-sport

M-B EQ

Jaguar

I-Pace

Mitsubishi eX

2020

Tesla Roadster

GLM G4

VW e-Bulli

BAIC EU260

Geely Emgrand

Audi E-tron

Sportback

VW I.D.

VW I.D. CROZZ

NIO ES8*

Tesla Roadster*

ChangAn EM80 VW I.D. BUZZ

Renault DeZir

Trumpchi

GS4

SAIC E-Lavida

Tata IRIS

VW I.D.*

Audi E-tron

Quattro

Tesla

Model Y*

BYD e5

Volvo 40.2*

Tesla

pickup*

Nissan Leaf 2*

Lucid Air

+

Faraday

FF91

NIO EVELeEco LeSEE

Chehejia

SUV*

BMW i5

Seat Mii*

Tesla

Model XVW

Budd-e

NIO EP9

Zenith Electric VanBD eDucato

30 28 March 2018

LIEBREICHAssociates


Source: Liebreich Associates; Bloomberg New Energy Finance

Li-ion battery manufacturing capacity, 2018

Commissioned annual capacity 303,173 MWh

74%

13%

4%9%

China

U.S.

Europe

APAC (excl. China)

Other

31 28 March 2018

LIEBREICHAssociates


Source: Liebreich Associates; Bloomberg New Energy Finance

Li-ion battery manufacturing capacity, 2026

951,998 MWhCommissioned, under construction and announced annual capacity

56%

13%

14%

9%8%

China

U.S.

Europe

APAC (excl. China)

Other

32 28 March 2018

LIEBREICHAssociates



Public EV charging points installed globally 2008 – 2018

0

200

400

600

800

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Thousand outlets

Others

Japan

U.S.

Europe

China

CAGR 62%

33 28 March 2018

LIEBREICHAssociates



Annual global light duty vehicle sales Global light duty vehicle fleet

BNEF electric vehicle outlook to 2040

3%

28%

55%

0

30

60

90

120

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

million vehicles

1%9%

33%

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

million vehicles on road

3%

28%

55%

0

30

60

90

120

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

million vehicles

PHEV BEV ICE All EVs % of sales

1%9%

33%

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

million vehicles on road

PHEV BEV ICE All EVs % of fleet

34 28 March 2018

LIEBREICHAssociates


Not just cars going electric – buses

Images: Thomas Jouley; BYD; Proterra

35 28 March 2018

LIEBREICHAssociates


Not just cars going electric – commercial vehicles

Images: Tesla; Starship Technologies; Ehang; Zunum; Daimler; Dpost; UPS/Arrival

36 28 March 2018

LIEBREICHAssociates


Not just cars going electric – 2 & 3 wheelers

Images: Toyota; Omastar ; Kalkhoff; Jetson; Harley Davidson

37 28 March 2018

LIEBREICHAssociates


Image: Pon Equipment

Not just cars going electric

38 28 March 2018

LIEBREICHAssociates


Images: Alf Kare Aesobo; Kongsberg; Enercon

Not just cars going electric – ships

39 28 March 2018

LIEBREICHAssociates


Not just cars going electric

Images: Pipistrel; Ehang; Lilium; Airbus; Zunum; NASA

40 28 March 2018

LIEBREICHAssociates


1/3 of electricity



electric


energy productive



41 28 March 2018

LIEBREICHAssociates


Source: Liebreich Associates; IEA

World GDP, final energy and energy intensity by 2040

Note: Using IEA New Policies Scenario

0

50

100

150

200

250

GDP Final energy Final energy/GDP

Indexed (2016 = 100)

2016 2040

0

50

100

150

200

250


Indexed (2016 = 100)

2016 2040

0

50

100

150

200

250


Indexed (2016 = 100)

2016 2040

The world uses a

third less energy

per unit of GDP by

2040

42 28 March 2018

LIEBREICHAssociates



1/3 of electricity



electric


energy productive


43 28 March 2018

LIEBREICHAssociates


Images: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Tesla, Wallpaper Mania, Cleantechnica; Wikipedia Commons

Beyond the Three-Third World

Shipping/air/freight Chemicals

Energy accessHeatAgriculture

Manufacturing

44 28 March 2018

LIEBREICHAssociates


Source: NASA

Finance

45 28 March 2018

LIEBREICHAssociates


Source: BNEF

Global sustainable debt annual issuance, 2010 – 2018

0

100

200

300

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

$ bn

Sustainability-linked loans

Green loans

Social bonds

Sustainability bonds

Green bonds

46 28 March 2018

LIEBREICHAssociates


Source: Liebreich Associates; Global Policy; PRI; TCFD

Divestment and ESG investment in perspective

Global financial

savingsDivested asset

owners

$7.2 trillion

Task Force on Climate-

Related Financial

Disclosures (TCFD)

$240

trillion

Note: figures as at Q4 2018

$100

trillion

$82

trillion

Principles of

Responsible

Investing

$7.2

trillion

47 28 March 2018

LIEBREICHAssociates


Source: NASA

Digitisation

48 28 March 2018

LIEBREICHAssociates


Source: CAISO OASIS; CPUC; LS Power; CESA; BNEF

Evolving structure of power supply California

First week of May 2012

(actual)


(actual)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1 2

Chart Title

Solar Wind Net Load Demand


(modelled)

49 28 March 2018

LIEBREICHAssociates


Source: BNEF

Evolving structure of power supply Germany

Past – summer

Past – winter

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80


Current – summer

Current – winter

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80


-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80


Future – summer

Future – winter

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80


-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80


-30.0

-10.0

10.0

30.0

50.0

70.0

90.0


GW

Peaking fossil Baseload fossil Nuclear CHP Hydro Baseload RE Solar Wind Pumped hydro generation/Storage Imports Exports/curtailment/DR

50 28 March 2018

LIEBREICHAssociates


Source: Wikipedia Commons; The Free Dictionary

PHASE CHANGE

Phase Change (n): A change in a feature of a physical system that results in a discrete transition of that

system to another state.

51 28 March 2018

LIEBREICHAssociates


Source: BNEF; Liebreich Associates

Digitisation of infrastructure

Ubiquitous

Artificial

intelligence and

machine

learning

Ubiquitous

processing and

storage

(cloud to

network edge)

Ubiquitous

chips and

sensors

Ubiquitous

communications

Ubiquitous

Blockchain

(distributed

ledgers and

smart contracts)

52 28 March 2018

LIEBREICHAssociates


Source: Chicago Board of Trade; DataCenter Hawk

1999 – Open outcry 2015 – Colocated data centers

Digitisation – Chicago Board of Trade

53 28 March 2018

LIEBREICHAssociates


Source: NASA

Cities

54 28 March 2018

LIEBREICHAssociates


Source: UN; Liebreich Associates

Global population 1950 – 2050

Note: Dashed lines are UN projections

0

2

4

6

8

10

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Billion people

0

2

4

6

8

10

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Billion people

0

2

4

6

8

10

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Billion people

0

2

4

6

8

10

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Billion people

Urban population

Total population

By 2050

cities grow 50%

adding 2 billion

more people

55 28 March 2018

LIEBREICHAssociates


Image: Innovationorigins

Traffic

56 28 March 2018

LIEBREICHAssociates


London, UK

Image: HHRCA

57 28 March 2018

LIEBREICHAssociates


Source: BCG; Rideshareguy; Uber administrative data; Liebreich Associates

Ride–hailing in the U.S.

0

200

400

600

800

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Thousand drivers

Uber

Lyft

Licensed Taxi

58 28 March 2018

LIEBREICHAssociates


Source: Various

VC and PE investments in bike and scooter-sharing in 2018

$2.7 bn

$355 mn

$150 mn

$866 mn

59 28 March 2018

LIEBREICHAssociates


Vehicle control systems

Image: Wikimedia Commons; Nvidia

Barry Nvidia Drive PX for Autochauffeur

60 28 March 2018

LIEBREICHAssociates


Source: eVTOL.news; Various

Announced electric VTOL models

Vectored thrust – 55 models Multicopter – 35 models Hover bike – 34 models

Lift + cruise – 20 models Electronic rotorcraft – 11 models

61 28 March 2018

LIEBREICHAssociates


Image: Kalanick/Twitter

Techno-optimism

We envision a world where

there's no more traffic in Boston

in five years

Travis Kalanick

Founder and former CEO of Uber

December 2015

62 28 March 2018

LIEBREICHAssociates


Image: Matthew Lee/Boston Globe

Traffic – Boston, February 2019

63 28 March 2018

LIEBREICHAssociates


Sint-Antoniesbreestraat – 1980s Sint-Antoniesbreestraat – 2016

Healthy streets – Amsterdam

Source: Amsterdam City Archives; Thomas Schlijper HT: @SustainableAMS

64 28 March 2018

LIEBREICHAssociates


Source: Amsterdam City Archives; Flickr/Jainbow HT: @SustainableAMS

Reguliersbreestraat – 1979 Reguliersbreestraat – 2014


65 28 March 2018

LIEBREICHAssociates


Museumplein – 1982 Museumplein – 2014


Source: Amsterdam City Archives; Thomas Schlijper HT: @SustainableAMS

66 28 March 2018

LIEBREICHAssociates


Image: Rocky Mountain Institute

Choice

Our energy future is

not fate, but choice

Amory Lovins

Founder, Rocky Mountain Institute

67 28 March 2018

LIEBREICHAssociates


Image: Getty

Cost of decarbonisation

No one can seriously argue any

more that our climate policies

have generated economic

harm.

Michael Howard

Former UK Conservative Party Leader

68 28 March 2018

LIEBREICHAssociates


Image: Carbonbrief

Achievement and optimism

What I have grown to understand is

that optimism is not the result of an

achievement, it is the necessary

input for any achievement.

Christiana Figueres

Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC

the world must achieve greenhouse gas neutrality some time ...€¦ · gas neutrality some time in...

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