the use of passenger transit infrastructure forthe use of...

The Use of Passenger Transit Infrastructure forThe Use of Passenger Transit Infrastructure for Goods Movement: A Bay Area Case Study

Karthik Sivakumaran, Dr. Xiao-Yun Lu, ITS, U. C. BerkeleyMatt Hanson, Caltrans DRIRichard Lu, BART; Faisal Zaman & Run Zhou, FedEx;

Outlines

• Introduction• System Characteristics• Preliminary Economic Analysis• Results• Concluding RemarksConcluding Remarks

Introduction

• Air cargo in the Bay Area will double by 2010 and triple by 2020, relative to 1998 levelsT k th i t t d f i t• Trucks are the primary transport mode for air cargo movement between airport sorting sites and customers

• Increased trucking will lead to increased:Air pollution– Air pollution

– Highway traffic congestion– Road maintenance costs

Accidents– Accidents• There exists a need for alternative . . .• Alternative:

Use Commuter Rail System for Transshipments between Airports and– Use Commuter Rail System for Transshipments between Airports and Local Collection and Distribution Centers

• Starting from air freight, but may extended to other products from manufacturers or agricultural products

Introduction

• Project history– First meeting at California PATH (FedEx, BART, Caltrans,

BAAQMD) J l 6th 2005BAAQMD) on July 6th 2005, – Many activities conducted after that

Visiting FedEx Western Regional Hub at OAKP d t t d d do Products types and demand

o Operation in sorting and with truckso Container types and sizeo Loading/unloadingo Loading/unloading

Visiting BART Yards, Stations for loading/unloading accessibilityVisiting UPS and DHL Sorting Center at OAKDiscussion with BART Operation Division and FedExDiscussion with BART Operation Division and FedExFinding opportunities for small scale operation/demonstration

– Project currently funded by Caltrans DRI and Goods Movement

Introduction

• Potential Benefits– Integrated Air Freight Carriers

I d li bilit i iIncreased reliability in serviceCost savings in a long runBusiness expansion

Commuter Rail System– Commuter Rail SystemAdditional revenue stream

– Public CommunityReduced trucking activitiesReduced trucking activitiesReduced emissionMaximally using heavily invested infrastructure including recycled BART carReduced road maintenancePotentially reduced fatal highway accident

System Characteristics

• BART– 104 miles of track– 43 stations– Car Dimensions

70 ft X 10.5 ft X 7 ft– Door Dimensions

4.5 ft X 6.5 ft– Nonstandard Gauge;

5.5 ft– Net loads: 30,000lbs– 15 min headway; shorter in SF direction in peak hours– Future Plans

Extension to San Jose by 2018Renewal of BART fleet with 700 new cars by 2024


• BART– Only 30% capacity of BART system is used currently on average

f tfor passenger movement;– BART system control technology is 20~30 years ago; building by-

passing tracks at some critical stations and using modern technology of sensors wireless communications and controltechnology of sensors, wireless communications, and control system, headway could be greatly reduced and BART system capacity could be greatly increased;

• BART Lines and FedEx Collection Distribution Centers

• BART Yard at Concord

57 min ODY

51 min OHY

1:14 MB

28 OKS

ORY 59 min ODY

51 min OHY

1:16 MB

28 O S

OCY

35 min CL 28 min OKS

35 min CL

OKS

ODY

58 min OHY

35 Min OKS58 min ODY

OHY

= BART Yard

57 min ODY

47 min OHY

1:08 MB

35 min CL

59 min ODY

43 min OHY

1:20 MB

31 C31 min CL

46 min ODY46 min OHY

= BART Yard = FedEx Stations

Possible Consist Configurations

1) Modified BART Cars

2) Flatcar used as a Control Car

3) Flatcar without Control Elements


• FedEx Western Regional Hub at OAKSorting and distribution center for seven states

Time Dependent Demand– Time-Dependent DemandDistribution: 3:00 AM to 7:00 AMCollection: 5:00 PM to 9:00 PM

– Container TypesContainer TypesVarious sizesNearly all use ball-bearings for transport (no lifts)

o Exception: USPS ContainerpAvg. load density 5.5 lbs/ft3

– CTV5 Truck Dimensions53 ft X 10.5 ft

Preliminary Economic Analysis: Methodology and AssumptionsAssumptions

• Preliminary Stage of Economic Feasibility Study:– Examine only operating costs and externalities

If infeasible then no need to explore capital expenditure– If infeasible, then no need to explore capital expenditure– Timeline showed: 2021-2040

• Compare the following four alternatives to Status Quo (trucks only):

1 2

A

Little capital investment CTV5 Trucks for local transshipments; Existing BART yards and maintenance

Little capital investment Electric trucks for local transshipments; Existing BART yards stations andExisting BART yards and maintenance

areas for access point; Dedicated freight train

Existing BART yards, stations and maintenance areas for access point; Dedicated freight train

CTV5 Trucks for local transshipments; BART connection between OAK and

Electric trucks for local transshipments; BART connection between OAK and

B

BART connection between OAK and Coliseum Station; Certain capital investment for retrofitting of existing BART stations for goods movement;

BART connection between OAK and Coliseum Station Certain capital investment for retrofitting of existing BART stations for goods movement;

Dedicated freight train Dedicated freight train

Preliminary Economic Analysis: Alternatives A1 and A2:

6b: Glen Park

7b S San

Black oval: FedEx Center

(Oakland City Center/12th St.)7b: S. San Francisco

5a: CCR

7a: SQL

6b.7b: Colma

White oval: BART Yards;

Rectangle: BART t f i t

6a: SFO5b: Concord (Yard) (YARD)

(YARD)

4ab: (Coliseum/ Oakland Airport)

transfer points

RHV: San JoseHWD: Hayward

(Bay Fair)

OAK

2b: Union City

3b: Dublin/ Pleasanton

Oakland Airport) OAK: Oakland Airport HubSFO: San Francisco (near airport)SQL: South San2b: Union City

(YARD)

1b: Milpitas

2a: HWD

3a: LVK1a: RHV

SQL: South San FranciscoCCR: ConcordLVK: Dublin

1b: Milpitas1a: RHV

Alternatives B1 and B2:

6b: Glen Park

7b S San

Black oval: FedEx Center

(Oakland City Center/12th St.)7b: S. San Francisco

5a: CCR

7a: SQL

6b.7b: Colma

White oval: BART Yards;

Rectangle: BART t f i t

6a: SFO5b: Concord (Yard) (YARD)

(YARD)

4ab: (Coliseum/ Oakland Airport)

transfer points

RHV: San JoseHWD: Hayward

(Bay Fair)

OAK

2b: Union City

3b: Dublin/ Pleasanton

Oakland Airport) OAK: Oakland Airport HubSFO: San Francisco (near airport)SQL: South San2b: Union City

(YARD)

1b: Milpitas

2a: HWD

3a: LVK1a: RHV

SQL: South San FranciscoCCR: ConcordLVK: Dublin

1b: Milpitas1a: RHV

Methodology and Assumptions

• Demand (lbs/day)

1a: 2a: 3a: 5a: 6a: 7a:1a:RHV

2a:HWD

3a:LVK

5a:CCR

6a:SFO

7a:SQL

From OAK 18,300 13,800 12,900 13,200 25,500 15,900To OAK 60,000 219,00 99,000 51,000 76,500 36,000

– Assumed 6% annual growth rate (practically maybe higher)

• Container Type: USPSyp– EV Capacity: 4– Truck Capacity: 16– BART Car Capacity: 24

• Dedicated Freight Consists– Truck Capacity: 16– BART Car Capacity: 24


• Transport Costs (incl. labor) FedEx

# trucks req for given link = (route demand)/(truck capacity) # trucks req. for given link = (route demand)/(truck capacity)Link truck VMT = (# trucks req. for link) X (link travel distance)Sum across all linksConsider empty container returnsConsider empty container returns

BART# cars req. for given link = (link demand)/(car capacity)Consolidate cars into consists (max length = 10 cars)( g )Calculate train VHT for given link, and sum across linksConsider empty container returnsConsider empty train returns to BART yards, s. t. same number of

i i i d t b i i f h dcars is in given yard at beginning of each day• Handling Costs (incl. labor)

Incurred by both BART and FedEx at transshipment pointAssumed 0 025 hrs/container Assumed 0.025 hrs/container


• External Costs (~CTV5 Truck VMT)– CO2 Emissions

22.2 lbs/gallon diesel fuel– Accidents

Rate 1.6x10-6 crashes/heavy truck mileAvg. Cost: $91,112

– Maintenance$0.074/truck-mile

• Benefits not included– Reliability (benefit to FedEx and customers)– Delay Savings (benefit to society)

• Total demand scaled to include other carriers • All the costs are in 2008 $• Calculated from 2015, but showed from 2021

Results: Status Quo

Year CTV5

Truck VMT FedEx Costs BART Costs Total Cost

Minimum Subsidy

Required (+) # CTV5

Accidents Accident $ Maintenance $ CO2 (lbs) $ $ $ $ $ $2021 2,907,770 $13,181,300 $0 $13,181,300 $0 5 $240,450 $215,170 6,455,200

2022 3,112,990 $14,165,200 $0 $14,165,200 $0 6 $257,420 $230,360 6,910,800 2023 3,245,130 $14,805,800 $0 $14,805,800 $0 6 $268,350 $240,140 7,204,200 2024 3,444,130 $15,763,300 $0 $15,763,300 $0 6 $284,800 $254,870 7,646,000 2025 3,604,270 $16,559,500 $0 $16,559,500 $0 6 $298,040 $266,720 8,001,500 2026 3,873,810 $17,844,600 $0 $17,844,600 $0 7 $320,330 $286,660 8,599,9002027 4,091,370 $18,902,800 $0 $18,902,800 $0 7 $338,320 $302,760 9,082,800 2028 4,345,100 $20,145,600 $0 $20,145,600 $0 8 $359,300 $321,540 9,646,100 2029 4,525,330 $21,041,500 $0 $21,041,500 $0 8 $374,210 $334,870 10,046,200 2030 4,798,540 $22,387,100 $0 $22,387,100 $0 8 $396,800 $355,090 10,652,800 2031 5,112,190 $23,936,700 $0 $23,936,700 $0 9 $422,740 $378,300 11,349,1002032 5,309,050 $24,931,200 $0 $24,931,200 $0 9 $439,010 $392,870 11,786,100 2033 5,725,770 $26,969,100 $0 $26,969,100 $0 10 $473,470 $423,710 12,711,200 2034 6,040,700 $28,544,200 $0 $28,544,200 $0 10 $499,520 $447,010 13,410,400 2035 6,427,790 $30,481,300 $0 $30,481,300 $0 11 $531,530 $475,660 14,269,700 2036 6,666,310 $31,711,800 $0 $31,711,800 $0 12 $551,250 $493,310 14,799,2002037 7,144,280 $34,105,200 $0 $34,105,200 $0 12 $590,770 $528,680 15,860,300 2038 7,590,080 $36,349,500 $0 $36,349,500 $0 13 $627,640 $561,670 16,850,000 2039 8,014,650 $38,502,000 $0 $38,502,000 $0 14 $662,750 $593,080 17,792,500 2040 8,471,460 $40,839,000 $0 $40,839,000 $0 15 $700,520 $626,890 18,806,600

Results: A1

YearCTV5 Truck VMT

Savings FedEx Costs BART Costs Total CostMinimum Subsidy

Required (+)

# Truck Accidents

SavedAccident $

Saved Maintenance $ Saved CO2 Saved (lbs)

2021 1 193 810 $9 475 200 $10 136 000 $19 611 200 $6 429 900 2 $98 720 $88 340 2 650 2002021 1,193,810 $9,475,200 $10,136,000 $19,611,200 $6,429,900 2 $98,720 $88,340 2,650,200

2022 1,280,000 $10,138,700 $9,722,200 $19,860,900 $5,695,700 2 $105,850 $94,720 2,841,600

2023 1,324,570 $10,668,300 $10,259,700 $20,928,000 $6,122,200 2 $109,540 $98,020 2,940,600

2024 1,405,860 $11,340,500 $10,993,700 $22,334,200 $6,570,900 2 $116,250 $104,040 3,121,000

2025 1,456,460 $11,988,200 $10,983,200 $22,971,400 $6,411,900 2 $120,430 $107,780 3,233,400

2026 1,582,120 $12,804,600 $11,491,400 $24,296,000 $6,451,400 3 $130,830 $117,070 3,512,300

2027 1,658,520 $13,615,800 $11,195,800 $24,811,600 $5,908,800 2 $137,140 $122,730 3,681,900

2028 1,773,020 $14,435,000 $11,701,200 $26,136,200 $5,990,600 3 $146,610 $131,210 3,936,100

2029 1,813,350 $15,262,500 $11,832,400 $27,094,900 $6,053,400 3 $149,950 $134,180 4,025,600

2030 1,922,650 $16,218,800 $12,531,300 $28,750,100 $6,363,000 3 $158,990 $142,270 4,268,300

2031 2,058,260 $17,256,700 $12,764,600 $30,021,300 $6,084,600 3 $170,210 $152,310 4,569,400

2032 2,100,890 $18,186,900 $13,086,500 $31,273,400 $6,342,200 3 $173,720 $155,470 4,664,000

2033 2,318,150 $19,359,100 $13,444,800 $32,803,900 $5,834,800 4 $191,690 $171,550 5,146,300

2034 2 416 840 $20 615 600 $13 395 000 $34 010 600 $5 466 400 4 $199 860 $178 840 5 365 4002034 2,416,840 $20,615,600 $13,395,000 $34,010,600 $5,466,400 4 $199,860 $178,840 5,365,400

2035 2,591,210 $21,877,400 $13,061,000 $34,938,400 $4,457,100 4 $214,280 $191,750 5,752,500

2036 2,625,530 $23,114,400 $13,539,000 $36,653,400 $4,941,600 5 $217,110 $194,290 5,828,700

2037 2,845,080 $24,629,400 $13,498,400 $38,127,800 $4,022,600 4 $235,260 $210,540 6,316,100

2038 3,035,420 $26,149,600 $14,765,700 $40,915,300 $4,565,800 5 $251,010 $224,630 6,738,700

2039 3,192,140 $27,746,500 $15,297,500 $43,044,000 $4,542,000 6 $263,970 $236,210 7,086,500

2040 3,361,060 $29,467,100 $15,130,400 $44,597,500 $3,758,500 6 $277,930 $248,720 7,461,500

Results: A2

YearCTV5 Truck VMT


Required (+)

# Truck Accidents

SavedAccident $


2021 1 790 260 $14 821 200 $10 136 000 $24 957 200 $11 775 900 3 $148 040 $132 470 3 974 3002021 1,790,260 $14,821,200 $10,136,000 $24,957,200 $11,775,900 3 $148,040 $132,470 3,974,300

2022 1,923,670 $15,821,700 $9,722,200 $25,543,900 $11,378,700 4 $159,070 $142,350 4,270,500

2023 1,992,980 $16,875,000 $10,259,700 $27,134,700 $12,328,900 4 $164,810 $147,480 4,424,400

2024 2,115,680 $17,940,800 $10,993,700 $28,934,500 $13,171,200 4 $174,950 $156,560 4,696,800

2025 2,199,530 $19,112,600 $10,983,200 $30,095,800 $13,536,300 4 $181,880 $162,770 4,883,000

2026 2,379,310 $20,440,900 $11,491,400 $31,932,300 $14,087,700 5 $196,750 $176,070 5,282,100

2027 2,507,110 $21,788,100 $11,195,800 $32,983,900 $14,081,100 5 $207,310 $185,520 5,565,700

2028 2,671,080 $23,214,400 $11,701,200 $34,915,600 $14,770,000 5 $220,870 $197,660 5,929,800

2029 2,748,080 $24,731,900 $11,832,400 $36,564,300 $15,522,800 5 $227,250 $203,350 6,100,700

2030 2,913,580 $26,390,500 $12,531,300 $38,921,800 $16,534,700 5 $240,930 $215,600 6,468,200

2031 3,115,030 $28,126,500 $12,764,600 $40,891,100 $16,954,400 6 $257,590 $230,510 6,915,400

2032 3,204,180 $29,865,700 $13,086,500 $42,952,200 $18,021,000 6 $264,950 $237,110 7,113,300

2033 3,499,720 $31,869,000 $13,444,800 $45,313,800 $18,344,700 7 $289,390 $258,980 7,769,400

2034 3,666,550 $34,052,500 $13,395,000 $47,447,500 $18,903,300 7 $303,200 $271,320 8,139,800, , $ , , $ , , $ , , $ , , $ , $ , , ,

2035 3,919,000 $36,290,100 $13,061,000 $49,351,100 $18,869,800 7 $324,070 $290,010 8,700,200

2036 4,004,930 $38,680,000 $13,539,000 $52,219,000 $20,507,200 8 $331,180 $296,370 8,890,900

2037 4,325,820 $41,240,500 $13,498,400 $54,738,900 $20,633,700 8 $357,710 $320,110 9,603,300

2038 4,605,560 $43,976,100 $14,765,700 $58,741,800 $22,392,300 9 $380,840 $340,820 10,224,400

2039 4,850,610 $46,848,200 $15,297,500 $62,145,700 $23,643,700 10 $401,110 $358,940 10,768,300

2040 5,114,440 $49,972,000 $15,130,400 $65,102,400 $24,263,400 10 $422,920 $378,470 11,354,000

Results: B1

YearCTV5 Truck VMT


Required (+)

# Truck Accidents

SavedAccident $


2021 2 311 320 $3 540 200 $7 893 300 $11 433 500 $1 747 800 4 $196 310 $171 030 5 131 1002021 2,311,320 $3,540,200 $7,893,300 $11,433,500 -$1,747,800 4 $196,310 $171,030 5,131,100

2022 2,469,320 $3,811,700 $7,618,900 $11,430,600 -$2,734,600 4 $209,790 $182,730 5,481,900

2023 2,576,720 $3,985,400 $8,026,200 $12,011,600 -$2,794,200 4 $218,890 $190,680 5,720,300

2024 2,734,310 $4,236,800 $8,623,700 $12,860,500 -$2,902,800 4 $232,270 $202,340 6,070,200

2025 2,861,200 $4,456,900 $8,658,100 $13,115,000 -$3,444,500 4 $243,050 $211,730 6,351,900

2026 3,076,630 $4,778,600 $9,030,900 $13,809,500 -$4,035,100 5 $261,340 $227,670 6,830,200

2027 3,242,780 $5,089,100 $8,864,900 $13,954,000 -$4,948,800 5 $275,520 $239,960 7,198,900

2028 3,447,040 $5,400,600 $9,272,800 $14,673,400 -$5,472,200 6 $292,840 $255,080 7,652,400

2029 3,590,600 $5,653,100 $9,388,200 $15,041,300 -$6,000,200 6 $305,040 $265,700 7,971,100

2030 3,807,610 $6,004,500 $9,923,400 $15,927,900 -$6,459,200 6 $323,470 $281,760 8,452,900

2031 4,055,420 $6,408,800 $10,146,800 $16,555,600 -$7,381,100 7 $344,540 $300,100 9,003,100

2032 4,205,770 $6,721,700 $10,449,600 $17,171,300 -$7,759,900 7 $357,370 $311,230 9,336,800

2033 4,544,200 $7,202,800 $10,759,600 $17,962,400 -$9,006,700 8 $386,030 $336,270 10,088,100

2034 4 791 000 $7 633 500 $10 785 000 $18 418 500 $10 125 700 7 $407 040 $354 530 10 636 1002034 4,791,000 $7,633,500 $10,785,000 $18,418,500 -$10,125,700 7 $407,040 $354,530 10,636,100

2035 5,100,000 $8,123,200 $10,566,700 $18,689,900 -$11,791,400 8 $433,270 $377,400 11,322,000

2036 5,286,910 $8,492,500 $10,984,400 $19,476,900 -$12,234,900 9 $449,170 $391,230 11,736,900

2037 5,663,550 $9,108,200 $11,049,600 $20,157,800 -$13,947,400 9 $481,200 $419,110 12,573,100

2038 6,019,940 $9,677,100 $12,043,100 $21,720,200 -$14,629,300 10 $511,450 $445,480 13,364,300

2039 6,356,180 $10,246,700 $12,521,000 $22,767,700 -$15,734,300 11 $540,020 $470,350 14,110,700

2040 6,718,080 $10,860,800 $12,487,600 $23,348,400 -$17,490,600 12 $570,770 $497,140 14,914,100

Results: B2

YearCTV5 Truck VMT


Required (+)

# Truck Accidents

SavedAccident $


2021 2 907 770 $8 644 000 $7 893 300 $16 537 300 $3 356 000 5 $240 450 $215 170 6 455 2002021 2,907,770 $8,644,000 $7,893,300 $16,537,300 $3,356,000 5 $240,450 $215,170 6,455,200

2022 3,112,990 $9,233,600 $7,618,900 $16,852,500 $2,687,300 6 $257,420 $230,360 6,910,800

2023 3,245,130 $9,920,000 $8,026,200 $17,946,200 $3,140,400 6 $268,350 $240,140 7,204,200

2024 3,444,130 $10,549,900 $8,623,700 $19,173,600 $3,410,300 6 $284,800 $254,870 7,646,000

2025 3,604,270 $11,278,600 $8,658,100 $19,936,700 $3,377,200 6 $298,040 $266,720 8,001,500

2026 3,873,810 $12,090,200 $9,030,900 $21,121,100 $3,276,500 7 $320,330 $286,660 8,599,900

2027 4,091,370 $12,915,400 $8,864,900 $21,780,300 $2,877,500 7 $338,320 $302,760 9,082,800

2028 4,345,100 $13,816,300 $9,272,800 $23,089,100 $2,943,500 8 $359,300 $321,540 9,646,100

2029 4,525,330 $14,741,900 $9,388,200 $24,130,100 $3,088,600 8 $374,210 $334,870 10,046,200

2030 4,798,540 $15,773,400 $9,923,400 $25,696,800 $3,309,700 8 $396,800 $355,090 10,652,800

2031 5,112,190 $16,848,700 $10,146,800 $26,995,500 $3,058,800 9 $422,740 $378,300 11,349,100

2032 5,309,050 $17,951,800 $10,449,600 $28,401,400 $3,470,200 9 $439,010 $392,870 11,786,100

2033 5,725,770 $19,232,200 $10,759,600 $29,991,800 $3,022,700 10 $473,470 $423,710 12,711,200

2034 6 040 700 $20 562 900 $10 785 000 $31 347 900 $2 803 700 10 $499 520 $447 010 13 410 4002034 6,040,700 $20,562,900 $10,785,000 $31,347,900 $2,803,700 10 $499,520 $447,010 13,410,400

2035 6,427,790 $21,995,200 $10,566,700 $32,561,900 $2,080,600 11 $531,530 $475,660 14,269,700

2036 6,666,310 $23,497,600 $10,984,400 $34,482,000 $2,770,200 12 $551,250 $493,310 14,799,200

2037 7,144,280 $25,119,400 $11,049,600 $36,169,000 $2,063,800 12 $590,770 $528,680 15,860,300

2038 7,590,080 $26,865,000 $12,043,100 $38,908,100 $2,558,600 13 $627,640 $561,670 16,850,000

2039 8,014,650 $28,674,200 $12,521,000 $41,195,200 $2,693,200 14 $662,750 $593,080 17,792,500

2040 8,471,460 $30,653,800 $12,487,600 $43,141,400 $2,302,400 15 $700,520 $626,890 18,806,600

Concluding Remarks

• Analysis shows significant promise for exploring the possibility of mixed-goods service on commuter rail systems. Alt ti h t d ti th t th hi h th d d th• Alternatives show a trend suggesting that the higher the demand, the lower the level of subsidy required.

• With certain capital investment, BART can actually derive profit from this service while the air freight carrier (FedEx) can derive savings.this service while the air freight carrier (FedEx) can derive savings.

• Future work– Adjust parameter values through further discussions with BART and FedEx– Quantify reliability benefitsy y– Further examine logistical barriers– Inclusion of other demand sources including manufacturer products– Determine capital costs for system modification– Social cost and benefit– More extensive analysis on emission and energy consumption

• Other aspects of feasibility study: logistics, security, institutional issuesissues

Acknowledgments

• BART– Steve Peery

• CyberTrans Int.– Eugene Nishinaga (Previous BART Research Manager)

• FedEx– Michael Graham

• Caltrans Goods Movement– Tom Messer– Michele Fell– Marcus Evans

Th kThank you!

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