the us elections - university of oxford · 2016-10-04 · where things stand election 2016 clinton...
TRANSCRIPT
The US Elections
Dr Tom Packer Rothermere American Institute
Tuesday 27 September 2016
Summary
Where things stand
Why Trump
Why Clinton
Who will win (buyer beware!)
What happens afterwards
Where things stand
Election 2016 Clinton Trump Spread
RCP Poll Average 46.2 43.7 Clinton +2.5
4-Way RCP Average 42.3 40.1 Clinton +2.2
Favorability Ratings -13.5 -22.4 Clinton +8.9
Betting Odds 67.0 33.0
The most hated nominees ever?
Source: WSJ/NBC September polling from 1996-2016
Why Trump?
Why Trump - it’s the
immigration stupid (I)
Why Trump - it’s the
immigration stupid (II)
Other reasons - media
coverage (figures up to March
2016)
No unity behind alternative - see
the ‘Endorsement Primary’
REPRESENTATI
VES 1 POINT
EACH
SENATORS 5
POINTS
EACH
GOVERNOR
S 10 POINTS
EACH
Donald Trump 46
Marco Rubio 139
Ted Cruz 114
John Kasich 48
Chris Christie 26
Jeb Bush 23
Mike Huckabe
e13
Rand Paul 13
Lindsey Grah
am5
Carly Fiorina 3
Ben Carson 1
Scott Walker 1
Source
FiveThirtyEight.com
Divided opponents
The alternatives
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
Jeb Bush
Why Hillary? (I) It’s the
establishment stupid
CANDIDATE
REPRESENTATIVES
1 POINT EACH
SENATORS
5 POINTS
EACH
GOVERNORS
10 POINTS
EACHTOTAL
POINTS
Hillary Clinton 523
Bernie Sanders 13
Source 538.com
II Strong African American
Backing
(III) the alternative
Who will win?
2012 election parallels ?
Areas of Clinton / Trump gains? The number of white college-educated or Hispanic Romney
voters for every white Obama voter without a college
degree. Blue indicates the former are relatively numerousN.J.IdahoColo.N.Y.Calif.Ky.N.D.Mo.Md.Ill.Nev.AlaskaHawaiiS.D.Ark.N.C.Kan.Mont.Del.Fla.Ind.Ariz.W.Va.Mass.Pa.Tenn.Wyo.Va.N.H.OhioMinn.Mich.Vt.Me.Wis.Ore.IowaOkla.N.M.Ala.Tex.S.C.Miss.UtahGa.La.0.51
Source: Upshot analysis of pre-election polls, census demographic data and actual results.
Meanwhile Congress which
actually makes the laws…
The Senate - likely
Democratic takeover?
The House
Democratic gains but nowhere near a majority - current
margin 226 R -187D – only a Clinton tsunami ?
Source realclearpoltiics.com
What happens if Trump wins?
The President is no PM
Exceptions?
Immigration
Trade
Military intervention
New restrictions on presidential power
Generic Republican Agenda?
If Clinton 2nd wins?
President Obama continued?
But….
The Supreme Court!
From left to right
Conclusion
Immigration, media attention and a
divided field key to Trump’s nomination
Hillary should be heavily favoured
Next President very constrained
Domestically the Supreme court perhaps
the most important consequence of the
election
If one unelected person matters so much
how much of a democracy is the US?