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ANNUAL REPORT AUGUST 2004-JULY 2006

THE UNIVERSITY OF THE WEST INDIES

S E I S M I C R E S E A R C H U N I T

1SEISMIC RESEARCH UNIT, U.W.I.

BIENNIAL REPORT

2004-2006

CONTENTS

THE MAIN OBJECTIVES OF THE UNIT ARE TO PROVIDE THE CONTRIBUTING GOVERNMENTS WITH ACCURATE AND UP-TO-DATE INFORMATION ABOUT EARTHQUAKE AND VOLCANIC ACTIVITY IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN REGION.

THE UNIT MAINTAINS A SEISMOGRAPH NETWORK WHICH, WHEN COMBINED WITH THE NETWORKS OPERATED BY COOPERATING AGENCIES, COVERS THE ENTIRE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

WE ARE ABLE TO PROVIDE CONTINUOUS INFORMATION ABOUT EARTHQUAKES AS THEY HAPPEN, TO CARRY OUT SPECIALIST STUDIES OF PARTICULARLY SIGNIFICANT EARTHQUAKES IMMEDIATELY AFTER THEY HAPPEN, AND REGULARLY TO UPDATE ESTIMATES OF THE LEVEL OF EARTHQUAKE HAZARD IN THE REGION.

THE UNIT CONDUCTS A CONTINUOUS STUDY OF ACTIVE VOLCANISM IN THE LESSER ANTILLES BY BOTH GEOLOGICAL AND GEOPHYSICAL METHODS THAT ARE DESIGNED TO: IDENTIFY WHICH OF THE VOLCANIC CENTRES IN THE LESSER ANTILLES PRESENT A THREAT OF FUTURE ERUPTIONS AND TO ADVISE REGIONAL GOVERNMENTS ACCORDINGLY; QUANTIFY THE HAZARD IN THE FORM OF HAZARD MAPS; PROVIDE TIMELY AND AUTHORITATIVE WARNING OF IMPENDING VOLCANIC ACTIVITY; PROVIDE TIMELY AND AUTHORITATIVE REASSURANCE THAT SOMETIMES ALARMING PHENOMENA ARE NOT SIGNS OF AN IMMEDIATE ERUPTION AND ASSIST GOVERNMENTS IN PREPARING VOLCANIC CONTINGENCY PLANS.

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CONTENTS 1EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2OPERATIONS 4

The Seismograph network 4Ground deformation networks 9Geothermal monitoring 10Seismic Activity 2004-2006 10Volcanic Activity 2004-2006 13

RESEARCH 15Major Projects Completed 15Ongoing Projects 18

DEPARTMENTAL OUTREACH 24Outreach 24Media Relations 24Website 24Workshops 25Special Projects 25

STAFF 27Changes 27Activities 28Conferences and meetings 34

PARTNERSHIPS AND COLLABORATIONS 36PUBLICATIONS 37

Refereed Journals 37Technical Reports 37Abstracts and Posters 38

PROJECTED ACTIVITIES 40

Cover page photo credits: All photographs taken by SRU staff except tsunami image from Ao Nang, Krabi Province, Thailand, taken by David Rydevik [email protected].

Earthquake damage in Portsmouth, Dominica, November 2004

Geologically the past two years have been busy for

the Unit as the seismograph network recorded a minimum of 1086 earthquakes...the strongest of which being the magnitude 6.2 Les Saintes event of November 21, 2004.


BIENNIAL REPORT

2004-2006

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The 2004-2006 academic year was marked by the publication of a comprehensive reference text, the departure of long

standing staff members and a major review of the way forward for the Seismic Research Unit. After a total of twenty-nine years of service Professor John Shepherd retired from the University as Head of the Seismic Research Unit in November 2004 and Dr. Richard Robertson was simultaneously appointed Acting Head of the Unit and substantive Head in July 2005. The year 2004 also saw the retirement of the Unit’s longest serving member of staff, Mr. Godfrey Almorales, who served as a research technician in the seismology department for forty-one years.During the years in review, the Unit began a process of internal consultations aimed at drafting a Strategic Plan to guide the operations of the Unit for the next 3-5 years. This is the first time this exercise has been undertaken in the Unit’s history.

Finalisation of this Plan is underway and will be distributed to our stakeholders during 2007.In May, 2005 the Unit launched a Volcanic Hazard Atlas of the Lesser Antilles (VHA), the first of its kind in the world. Funded by USAID/OFDA through the Caribbean Development Bank, this comprehensive reference text on volcanism in the Lesser Antilles provides an up-to-date summary of the current understanding of the evolution of West Indies volcanoes. A multimedia version of the VHA is scheduled to be completed and launched in 2007.July 2005 marked the 10th anniversary of the eruption of the Soufrière Hills Volcano on Montserrat, and the Unit spearheaded an international conference in Montserrat entitled ‘Soufrière Hills Volcano - Ten Years On Scientific Conference’. Organized in collaboration with the Montserrat Volcano Observatory, the organising committee received ninety scientific abstracts and registered over 100 participants from across the globe. Research highlights during the year included the completion and publication of volcanic hazard assessments of all volcanic islands for which the Unit is responsible, the initiation of a joint study with the University of East Anglia to systematically analyse the effectiveness of differing modes of risk and hazard communication, and an investigation of the data obtained from an existing 4-station strong motion seismic network on the island of Trinidad. Staff members attended and made presentations at a total of eleven conferences and were involved in the publication of at least thirty scientific works (including refereed journals, refereed books, refereed book chapters, abstracts and posters).Geologically the past two year have been busy for the Unit as the seismograph network recorded over 2126 earthquakes in the area of responsibility. There were twenty-five significant felt events for the period, the strongest of which being the magnitude 6.2 Les Saintes event of November 21, 2004. This event caused damage in Dominica, one death in Guadeloupe and was felt from St. Maarten in the north to St. Vincent in the south.Volcanic activity in the Eastern Caribbean for the reporting period was relatively quiet with perhaps

Nevis geophysical fi eldwork, August 2004

Montserrat Conference 2005

IAVCEI General Assembly, Pucon, Chile 2004


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2004-2006

the most signifi cant event being the drastic decrease of water levels at Dominica’s Boiling Lake. The lake eventually dried out in December 2004 and subsequently, the water level increased but varied dramatically for a few months before fi nally returning to its usual level in April 2005.The process of consolidating the sub-networks by optimizing the number and quality of instruments was continued, notably in St. Vincent and Dominica. The upgraded network can produce high quality data in adequate volume if a strict maintenance schedule is followed. The cost of operation and maintenance is not prohibitive but real-time accessibility of data is sacrifi ced.Hurricane Ivan and its associated weather systems infl icted damage on three of the seismograph sub-networks and caused lengthy disruption of service in St. Kitts and Grenada. The impact of the hurricane was felt most severely in Grenada where the loss of both telecommunication and power resulted in the interruption of full monitoring of the Kick ‘em Jenny volcano for almost 4 months. A single conventional short period seismic station located 16 km south of the volcano survived the onslaught of the hurricane and remained online for most of the period after the storm.In Dominica, theft of equipment at the Hillcrest Estate station caused severe setback to volcanic surveillance in the north of the island and later to the coverage of the Les Saintes earthquake of November 26, 2004. Due largely to high levels of activity in northern Dominica two milestone arrangements were secured. The Unit was able to negotiate a suitable ADSL Internet access contract for both sub-network hubs on the island and, the Ross University School of Medicine agreed to host an accelerograph on the school campus.Occasionally, there were other disruptions of service at other sub-network hubs but most were rectifi ed using remote troubleshooting and repairing techniques or with the help of local technicians. Electronics staff have developed considerable skill in carrying out remote maintenance which has resulted in savings from not having to travel too often to carry out network maintenance.The revived geothermal monitoring

program was fully established and the Unit has begun to build a geochemical database that will provide valuable information for establishing baseline activity at volcanic systems in the region, as well as for other areas of concern e.g. health impacts associated with volcanic activity.Planned activities of note for the 2006-2007 academic year include a major upgrade of the Eastern Caribbean Seismograph Network, the hosting of a Caribbean Training Course in Seismology and Tsunami Warnings, establishment of a graduate programme and taught courses in Volcanology and Seismology at the University of the West Indies, St. Augustine, publication of the Unit’s Strategic Plan, improvement in security at the Unit and the upgrade of the Department’s website. Ongoing efforts will also continue on the drafting and submission of project proposals to funding agencies and research councils throughout the Eastern Caribbean and elsewhere.

Repairs to network hub in St. Vincent

Hurricane Ivan affected three seismograph sub-networks

in the Eastern Caribbean...Grenada was most severely affected, suffering almost complete disruption of service for approximately 4 months.


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2004-2006

THE SEISMOGRAPH NETWORK

In September 1998 the first of an array of PC-Based seismic data acquisition/monitoring systems was deployed at Morne Daniel to

monitor a volcanic crisis in progress in Dominica. This heralded the initiation of a significant network upgrade that was earnestly needed to modernize the monitoring of geologic hazards in the region. Immediately prior to 1998 the seismic network comprised an array of 32 narrow-band vertical sensors that were linked to the Unit headquarters in St. Augustine, Trinidad via a combination of leased telephone circuits and/or several radio links. At St. Augustine, two well calibrated three component seismographs were also operated since 1964. These instruments, a short period and a long period were part of the United States World Wide Standardized Seismic Network. While this network configuration provided real-time detection coverage of geologic events, high telecommunication costs for data transmission inhibited the deployment of

sensors in numbers that were adequate for detailed analysis of threatening events. Rapid deployment of additional stations was always needed to enable proper investigations of volcanic unrest or earthquake aftershocks and, on many occasions, by the time the network was made sufficiently dense crucial information was missed. The combined effect of restricted instrument response and the distortion introduced by the analogue transmission circuits further limited the quality of the data acquired from the remotely located sensors. As a consequence the unit was often forced to employ the costly measure of deploying staff on location to man the acquisition systems for the duration of increased activity. The primary objective of the network upgrade was to address the problems outlined above by making both quantitative and qualitative improvements to the seismic networks. We employed the strategy of deploying an adequate number of both conventional and modern instruments throughout the region. Distributed data acquisition and monitoring are used to preserve accuracy and improve surveillance of seismic activity. The region was subdivided into several sub-networks according to the source location of the phenomenon to be monitored and a highly configurable data acquisition/monitoring system operated at the hub of each sub-network. A high quality sensor is directly interfaced to the recording system at each hub where radio telemetered data from up to twelve short period stations may also be monitored and logged. Data may be logged continuously or by event triggering methods. With the latter techniques a choice of highly efficient triggering algorithms are used to detect and save only signals which resemble genuine seismic events. Each remote data acquisition/monitoring systems is linked to the Unit headquarters via the public switched telephone network and the Internet. The telephone network is primarily used to conduct administrative tasks and to retrieve data on demand. The Internet serves as a low-cost mass transportation medium for the bulk of the data. In an effort to emphasize the criterion of cost effectiveness, real-time transmission of data to the processing centre was sacrificed.

OPERATIONS

Figure 1: Geographical distribution of seismograph stations in operation as at July 2006.


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2004-2006

In summary the current network consists of the following components (see Figure 1 & 2):

One broadband station (ALNG, Trinidad) is additionally equipped with a Kinemetrics K2 accelerograph which is designed with extended dynamic range to make accurate recording of ground motions up to two times as large as acceleration due to gravity. The K2 is interfaced to the RS232 (COM Port) of the computer. Three other Kinemetrics K2 strong motion accelerographs were operated successfully in Trinidad, during the period of this report. Although these autonomously recording instruments are primarily intended to record strong earthquakes, some are fitted with gain boards to provide increased sensitivity to smaller earthquakes. Data are usually collected from these instruments when needed (e.g. after a felt earthquake).Three of the thirteen remote data acquisition/monitoring stations are equipped with three-component short-period seismometers. These are the St. Eustatius, Saba and Barbados installations. Barbados is also equipped with a three-component long period sensor.There are (35) conventional short period stations and there is recording capacity to operate more than twice this number. These installations are equipped with single vertical component seismometers and are linked to a sub-network data acquisition system via analogue radio telemetry systems. The signals are retrieved at the hub and recorded alongside the broadband signals. Short period station data is substantially less accurate than broadband data but nevertheless these stations play key roles in constraining earthquake source parameters and are very useful in providing early information about volcanic unrest. They are far less expensive and much easier to procure, deploy and operate.All remote acquisition and monitoring

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stations send their data, and those from associated single component stations, to an Internet FTP server from where they are downloaded to Trinidad when required. This is done routinely but data may also be retrieved on demand by direct telephone connection. Real-time processing of data is limited by the constraints of the access communications network. Should the activity at a particular subnet increase to critical level staff may be deployed to man the system locally and carry out processing in real time.

Figure 2: Network of Seismic Stations – schematic representation.


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2004-2006

Recent Changes to the Network

The Eastern Caribbean Seismograph network underwent a few physical changes since our

last report. The hub of the St. Vincent sub-network was re-equipped with a broadband sensor and an additional short period station was added by re-occupying a past station site at Orange Hill on the northern flank of the volcano. This brought the total number of short period stations on St. Vincent sub-network to seven, including two stations (Belfond and Petit Monier) that are relayed from the St. Lucia sub-network. In past eruptions this volcano made the transition from exhibiting precursory seismic activity to full eruption in a matter of a few days. To mitigate the effects of future eruptions it is most prudent to maintain more than just an adequate level of instrumentation on the Soufrière volcano. This level of instrumentation can be facilitated by the upgraded network design.

A wireless Ethernet link was installed in St. Lucia to provide broadband Internet access to the remote data acquisition/monitoring system at Moule-a-Chique. Due to insufficient transmission power this service is very slow and needs to be upgraded. Moule-a-Chique is located south of Veiux Fort at the southern most tip of St. Lucia. Within two years of the establishment of the seismic sub-network hub at the site, a radio telephone service to the area was discontinued due to the obsolescence of the equipment and the introduction of cellular telephone service. Cable and Wireless, the service providers on the island, made an attempt to use cellular telephone modem device to provide access to the public switched network but experienced a major obstacle in getting data services activated on their mobile network. The introduction of ADSL service presented an opportunity to link the remote monitoring system to the Internet via wireless but

SRU Electronics Technician at the summit of the Soufriere Volcano, St. Vincent during installation of seismic station SSV.


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2004-2006

this does not rule out the need for another wireless bridge to provide telephone access to the acquisition system modem.Hurricane Ivan affected three seismograph sub-networks in the Eastern Caribbean but the more significant impact was the interruption of operations in the aftermath of the storm. Grenada was most severely affected, suffering almost complete disruption of service for approximately 4 months. Full monitoring service at the Kick-em-Jenny observatory located at Marli in the north of the island, was disrupted from September 7, 2004 to January 10, 2005 due to loss of electricity and telecommunications. However, the short period station located at the Cable and Wireless repeater at Mount St. Catherine survived the onslaught and remained serviceable for most of the post disaster period. This station has a redundant link to Trinidad so it went offline only for the few days it took Cable and Wireless to effect logistic measures to ensure operation of the generating set at the site. Due to the fact that the eye of the hurricane passed well to the south of the Kick-em-Jenny sub-network, the equipment sustained only limited physical damage.The St. Kitts and St. Vincent sub-networks also suffered damages due to power surge associated with weather systems from Ivan. In St. Vincent the damage was minor. Local support technicians effected repairs in relatively short time thereby limiting disruption of service. In St. Kitts routine load shedding of utility power and rat infestation at the station site compounded the problem. The net effect was a complete failure of the data acquisition system.In Dominica, the monitoring network in the north of the island suffered a major setback with the theft of seismograph equipment valued over US$15,000.00 from the station location at Hillcrest Estate. This included a K2 Accelerograph with a gain board fitted to capture small earthquakes and

a PC. The loss of this station severely reduced the event location and volcanic surveillance capability in northern Dominica. To address this diminished capability a vertical short period station was installed at the Vieille Case Police station but officers on duty switched off the apparatus because it was believed to be hazardous to their health. After the November 26, 2004 earthquake the Ross University medical school administration agreed in principle to host an Internet Accelerograph on the campus. Plans were also made to migrate to ADSL Internet access at both sub-network hubs on the island.Three new strong motion instruments, the Internet Accelerograph – IA-1 were added to the Units inventory during the reporting period. These were subjected to limited evaluation tests. The IA-1 is a compact self contained accelerograph, developed for use in urban strong motion studies. It has adequate sensitivity and dynamic range (0.5 of one thousandth of acceleration due to gravity and 78 dB respectively) to capture and study the range of earthquakes expected in the Eastern Caribbean, yet it costs a third (US$4,000) of the price of the Kinemetrics K2 accelerometer that has been used successfully by the Unit for the past seven years. Apart from the cost advantage, the IA-1 has an Internet and Secured Shell communication protocol interfaces which give it the capability

ID Station Location Owner of Premises

Vault Backup Power

Tel. Lines

Internet Access

Technical Support

TRN St. Augustine, Trinidad UWI Yes Generator N/A Broadband Excellent

ALNG Point Fortin, Trinidad Atlantic LNG Ltd. No Generator 1 Dial-up Fair

GRHS Marli, Grenada Government No None 3 Dial-up ExcellentGTV St. Phillips, Barbados Private No None 1 Dial-up Good

SVG Belmont, St. Vincent Government Yes Generator 2 Dial-up Good

MCLT Moule-a-Chique, St. Lucia

Cable & Wireless No Generator 1 Dial-up Fair

MDN Morne Daniel, Dominica

Cable & Wireless No Generator 1 Dial-up Good

DWS Wesley, Dominica Cable & Wireless No Generator 1 Dial-up PoorBPA Boggy Peak, Antigua Cable & Wireless No Generator 1 Broadband Excellent

SKI Bayfords, St. Kitts Government Yes None 1 Dial-up FairSTMA St. Philipsburg, St.

MaartenAirport No Generator 1 Broadband Fair

STAT Oranjestad, St. Eustatius Government No None 1 Dial-up Fair

SABT St. Johns, Saba Antillean Comm No Generator 1 Dial-up Fair

Table 1: Factors which affect reliability of operation of remote monitors.


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2004-2006

to operate securely behind any remote private LAN that has access to the Internet. Optionally, trigger messages and parametric event data can be reported to a centralized server by means of the SYSLOG protocol.Preliminary tests of the instruments have been satisfactory. Several felt events including the felt Trinidad earthquakes of December 2/3 2004 were successfully recorded on one of the instruments under test at the Unit headquarters. The remote logging function also worked flawlessly through the internal LAN. Given the lower cost and its ability to be operated and administered over the Internet, the IA-1 has the potential to replace the K2 accelerometer as the strong motion instrument of choice in the region. This however is contingent on finding partners throughout the region to serve as hosts for the devices. This should not be difficult considering the abundance of utility and civil engineering firms that have shown interest in

strong motion data. A notable drawback however is that the IA-1 is a LINUX based instrument. Most of staff at the Seismic Research Unit are not trained to use this operating system, nor is there any facility in place to encourage its use. For this instrument to go into production and gain acceptance it will be necessary to create some more LINUX installations and train more staff members to use the operating system.Recommendations

Table 1 lists some of the key factors which influence the reliability of remote monitoring

stations. Two of the most critical factors include the availability of backup power and robust Internet access facilities at the site. Sites without backup generators often suffer most whenever utility power problems are experienced. Factors such as the owner of a site or its remoteness from urban areas also influence the urgency with which utilities are restored and ultimately the duration of

SRU staff member taking measurements at a GPS station on Saba.


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system downtime. Remote monitoring systems in Grenada and St. Kitts for example, continue to be plagued by disruption of service due to failure of the power and telephone systems. Past failures in Grenada have been primarily influenced by bad weather systems that involve large amounts of precipitation and/or thunderstorms. In St. Kitts regular load shedding by the local electricity company has been the primary cause of disruption. Installation of back-up power generators at both locations can mitigate the effects of frequent long power outages. For Barbados and Statia where the remote systems are single stations the preferred solution is to find an alternate location with more reliable power supply or to operate a low power acquisition system on the island.Generally, all data acquisition systems with dial-up Internet access (currently 10 out of a total of 13 systems) suffer from reduced reliable and slow data transmission to the FTP server, limiting “near real-time” data transmission capability. Broadband Internet connections, preferably with static public addresses will allow for more timely data transmission and reliable operations. In the last year the availability and cost of ADSL service in the region have adjusted satisfactorily for this to be realized in the near future. Another possibility is the establishment of a regional VSAT intranet but this is contingent on the commitment and

participation of other subscribers in the region.Local technical support personnel have played a key role in reducing the downtime of remotely operated systems and often effect repairs when needed. These partnerships should be strengthened, possibly by the provision of training for these individuals who are usually volunteers. Ideally provision of local technical support personnel should be done through existing agencies (e.g. National Disaster Organisations) with which the Unit interacts. Serious consideration should be given to the provision of resources to these local organisations for recruitment of technical support personnel that can be utilised within these organisations as well as act as the technical liaison with the Seismic Research Unit. Finally there is an urgent need to construct vaults for all the sites which host broadband sensors. The full benefits of these instruments cannot be realized if they are operated in buildings. GROUND DEFORMATION NETWORKS

Benchmarks to monitoring ground deformation using Global Position System (GPS) have

now been established in Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Kitts, Nevis, Dominica, St. Lucia, St. Vincent, Grenada and the southern Grenadines (including Kick ‘em Jenny). During the period in review new benchmarks were established in Saba

and St. Eustatius (March 6-21, 2006). Existing GPS networks in Dominica (November 29 to December 8, 2004), St. Vincent (January 8-14, 2005), St. Lucia (March 3-17, 2005) and St. Kitts & Nevis (January 17 - 21 March 2006) were reoccupied and damaged benchmarks were replaced as part of the routine monitoring of potential ground deformation in these islands. All networks were last occupied in 2001 with the exception of northern Dominica which was last occupied in March 2004. All networks occupied from August 2004 onwards were


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done using static occupations and 3 Leica® system 500 receivers. In Dominica, both the existing Northern and Southern networks were reoccupied in December 2004 and an intermediate benchmark was installed on Morne Diablotin to tie these independent networks together. Some other benchmarks were reinstalled to improve the durability of the networks.Two new continuous Trimble NetRS GPS stations (cGPS stations), were installed on St. Vincent and Antigua. The GPS data processing was revamped using GAMIT-GLOBK processing code for MIT, USA. This new processing method ensures (i) a better accuracy, (ii) the possibility for automation of data processing for the cGPS stations and (iii) a regional homogeneity of ground deformation monitoring amongst the three Eastern Caribbean monitoring institutes (SRU, Montserrat Volcano Observatory and the Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris). Automated data retrieval and data processing will be implemented at SRU during the first quarter of 2007.GEOTHERMAL MONITORING

The revived geothermal monitoring programme is now fully established and the Unit has begun

to build a geochemical database that will provide valuable information for establishing baseline activity at volcanic systems in the region, as well as for other areas of concern e.g. health impacts associated with volcanic activity. The program now consists of more than 30 sites distributed over 12 geothermal areas in 7 islands (Dominica, Saint Lucia, Grenada, St. Vincent, Saba, St. Kitts, and Nevis). The islands of Dominica and Saint Lucia have been monitored on a more regular basis (twice per year) than the other islands. For the period in review geothermal investigations were conducted in Saba, Nevis, and Saint Lucia, however, samples were only collected from Dominica and Saint Lucia. Samples of volcanic gases and condensates were taken in Wotten Waven, Dominica in December 2004 and Sulphur Springs, St. Lucia in May 2004. These were analysed at the University of the West Indies and the University of New Mexico, USA.Sensors for continuously recording pressure

and temperature were installed at the Boiling Lake in Dominica in collaboration with the GeoForschungsZentrum (GFZ), Potsdam, Germany.SEISMIC ACTIVITY 2004-2006Earthquake numbers

The strongest event affecting the northern Leewards for the year was the Virgin Islands

magnitude 5.2 event of 2nd March 2006. The event was reported felt in St. Maarten. In the Eastern Caribbean, the largest events were of magnitude 5.0, of which there were two. The first was located north-east of Martinique and occurred on 30th August 2005. The second was located north-west of Trinidad on 28th October 2005. The former was felt in Saint Lucia and Martinique. The latter was strongly felt in northern Trinidad and throughout the country. It was also felt in Grenada and there were a few reports from St. Vincent. The epicentral locations of the events for the period indicate four dense clusters in the areas of Barbuda, north of Dominica, north of the Paria Peninsula and on land Trinidad. The cluster north of Dominica reflects on-going adjustments from the magnitude 6.2 Les Saintes event of 21st November 2004. The activity seen near Barbuda and north of Paria Peninsula is usual for those areas. On 2nd December 2005, one year after the near east coast of Trinidad magnitude 5.5 and 5.1 events, there was a felt aftershock of magnitude 4.1 associated with many smaller aftershocks.During the period, the TRN network stations recorded a minimum of 2129 earthquakes in the area of responsibility, of which a total of 1018 events were located, using our own data and the data contributions from Martinique, Guadeloupe and Puerto Rico. The many thousands of events associated with the north of Dominica earthquake of November 21, 2004 (hereafter “the Les Saintes event”) are still being addressed. The daily generation of located earthquakes is shown in Figure 4. The two strong peaks seen in July and August arose from a burst of events near Barbuda. The November peak reflects the elevated level of earthquake activity, running into thousands of

Figure 3: Eastern Caribbean earthquakes for the period July 1, 2004 to July 31 2006.


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events that were associated with the November 21, 2004 magnitude 6.2 strong earthquake north of Dominica (the numbers displayed are incomplete at this time). It was closely followed on December 02, 2004 by a much smaller sequence on land Trinidad.The epicentral locations of the events for the period are shown in Figure 3. Four dense clusters are apparent in the area of Barbuda, north of

Dominica, north of the Paria Peninsula and on land Trinidad. The activity seen near Barbuda and north of the Paria Peninsula is usual for those areas. The generally sparse production in the area from Grenada to Saint Lucia is also a normal feature of earthquake activity in the region.The cluster north of Dominica reflects on-going adjustments from the magnitude 6.2 Les Saintes event of November 21, 2004. Within one week

Figure 4: Eastern Caribbean Seismicity July 1, 2004 to July 31 2006.

Figure 5: Magnitude distribution of Eastern Caribbean earthquakes July 1, 2004 to July 31 2006.


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of that strong earthquake, over 2,500 events of magnitude > 2.0 had been recorded, and by mid- January, there were over 6,000 events recorded. Initially, the production rate was as high as three events per minute. On the third day, however, the rate had slowed with highs of above 20 per hour. The number included in Figure 3 and Figure 4 is a small subset of the thousands of aftershocks from that event.On December 02, 2004 an event of magnitude 5.5 occurred on land Trinidad near the east coast. Another significant event, magnitude 5.1, occurred just eight hours after. That sequence produced over 200 earthquakes above magnitude 2.0. Minor damage from the two largest earthquakes was reported. On December 2, 2005, one year after the near east coast of Trinidad magnitude 5.5 and 5.1 events, there was a felt aftershock of magnitude 4.1 associated with many smaller aftershocks.All of the volcanic centres exhibited background seismicity throughout the period. There were four small earthquakes associated

with the Kick-‘em-Jenny volcano during the year, three of which were large enough to be located. There were five events located in the vicinity of the Soufrière of St. Vincent. The high level of local earthquakes occurring in northern Dominica since 2000, interspersed by intense swarms, persisted into November 2004, with a strong peak on November 17, 2004. Since the Les Saintes sequence, the numbers of northern Dominica events have been much reduced.Felt earthquakes

There were forty-six significant felt events for the period. The

strongest event in the region for the period was the magnitude 6.2 Les Saintes event of November 21, 2004. The event was felt from St. Maarten in the north to St. Vincent in the south. The next strongest events, of magnitude 5.1 and 5.5, occurred in Trinidad on December 02, 2004. These three earthquakes caused damage.In the Eastern Caribbean, the largest events were of magnitude 5.0, of which there were two. The first was located north-east of Martinique and occurred

The lake water level decreased drastically and the lake eventually dried out during December 2004. Subsequently, the water level increased but varied dramatically for a few months before finally returning to its usual level in April 2005. An interesting characteristic of the lake level oscillations was that the water that refilled the lake after a ‘drying out’ episode was cold (unlike the usual 90 degrees Celsius).

BOILING LAKE - AFTERBOILING LAKE - BEFORE


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2004-2006

on 30th August 2005. The second was located north-west of Trinidad on 28th October 2005. The former was felt in Saint Lucia and Martinique. The latter was strongly felt in northern Trinidad and throughout the country. It was also felt in Grenada and there were a few reports from St. Vincent.The strongest event affecting the northern Leewards was the Virgin Islands magnitude 5.2 event of 2nd March 2006. The event was reported felt in St. Maarten.Magnitude Distribution

The magnitude distribution of the located events for the period is shown in Figure 5.

VOLCANIC ACTIVITY 2004-2006

Volcanic activity in the Eastern Caribbean for the period was relatively quiet with most of the

volcanoes exhibiting background levels of activity. Two sites of activity were the Valley of Desolation (Boiling Lake) in Dominica and Montserrat (cf Montserrat Volcano Observatory website: http://www.mvo.ms).Changes in the Boiling Lake, Valley of Desolation, Dominica

The lake water level decreased drastically and the lake eventually dried out during December

2004. Subsequently, the water level increased but varied dramatically for a few months before finally returning to its usual level in April 2005. Although we do not have continuous data on this event, water samples were collected throughout the crisis and observations were made by Arlington James a Forest Officer from the Ministry of Forestry in Dominica. An interesting characteristic of the lake level oscillations was that the water that refilled the lake after a ‘drying out’ episode was cold (unlike the usual 90 degrees Celsius). Also, the cycle of lake disappearance and reappearance occurred over a very short time period (a few hours). This is very unusual for volcanic crater lakes. Indeed, other reported examples of water level changes at crater lakes worldwide usually show an increase of the lake temperature during the level drop which usually takes up to several years for the lake to dry out. We do not yet have a definitive explanation

for this phenomenon at the Boiling Lake but an investigation of the available data suggests two main possibilities:

The post-November 21, 2004 earthquake aftershocks triggered some readjusting of the local fault system in the region of the Boiling Lake, inducing fracture opening and/or unclogging. Rapid drainage of the lake muddy water could cause a clogging of those fractures till the next episode of fracture unclogging. This hypothesis is being tested by comparing seismic events and episodes of changes of the water level and in any case is related to local volcanic activity;Local volcanic ground deformation could cause fractures to open/unclog and close/clog. Such ground deformation could have been caused by an overpressure of the shallow hydrothermal system. However, one would expect this sort of overpressure to induce an increase of the hydrothermal activity such as fumaroles temperature, flux and spatial distribution in the Valley of Desolation and no such event was observed during the crisis. This hypothesis can be tested by installing a broad-band seismometer in the Valley of Desolation so as to assess possible long period seismic signal due to fluid pressurization. Repeated monitoring of the ground deformation around the Boiling Lake on an hourly to daily basis would also

1.

2.

Photographs of Boiling Lake courtesy Arlington James

All gas samples collected from the previous years have now been analysed and the geochemical database is now up to date. This is a major achievement since new samples can now be routinely analysed without excessive storage time, an essential requirement in the case of a volcanic crisis. The existence of the facilities at UWI also provides an opportunity for the Unit along with the Chemistry Department to provide consultancy services in the field of volcanic gas geochemistry.

SRU SCIENTIST SAMPLING GAS


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be needed. This is difficult to implement due to the remoteness of the area and cannot be done without additional funding to provide instrumentation and remote communication capabilities.

Reports of increased sulphur smell

Concerns about increased volcanic activity in the form of increased degassing (sulphur smell)

was raised in Nevis (October 2004), Dominica (November 2004), the Grenadines (January 2005) and Saba (May 2005). Field investigations done by scientists from the Unit as well as continuous seismic data did not reveal any unusual activity. Reports to the governments, the media and the communities were made to clarify the situation. Details about the volcanic activity at Soufrière Hills in Montserrat can be found at www.mvo.ms.Geothermal monitoring program

The database compiled for the geothermal monitoring program is only just becoming

sufficiently large to yield potentially useful results. The samples analysed have confirmed

that the geothermal gases are of a typical arc type composition and that they have strong hydrothermal signatures rather than magmatic ones. This is important in terms of tracing the origin of the gases and in determining changes in their composition. Analyses of the geothermal waters have also indicated that the systems are immature ones which have not had time to equilibrate with the surrounding rocks. This suggests that it is therefore worthwhile to monitor them for changes in chemistry which may result from changes in volcanic activity.

Earthquake damage assessment in Dominica

The damaging effects of the 6.2 Les Saintes event

of November 21, 2004 were...concentrated in three main villages in Northern Dominica: Portsmouth, Vieille Case and Bornes Village.


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The research effort of the Unit is focused primarily on seismology, volcanology and outreach with a view towards an

improvement in our ability to provide accurate and up-to-date information about earthquake and volcanic activity in the Eastern Caribbean region

MAJOR PROJECTS COMPLETED

Dominica Earthquake damage assessment

Dr. Richard Robertson, Dr. Nicolas Fournier and Mrs. Rosemarie Mohais conducted a

brief field investigation of the damage caused by the magnitude 6.2 Les Saintes event of November 21, 2004. The damaging effects of the event were observed to have been concentrated in three main villages in Northern Dominica: Portsmouth, Vieille Case and Bornes Village. However, the main shock and several subsequent aftershocks were felt throughout the island. Ground shaking was the dominant contributor to building damage and there was no observed ground failure in the

sites visited by the investigating team. Preliminary evaluation of damage done as of December 14, 2004 gave a figure of US $19 million (CDERA). This figure represents the official estimate for repairs and reconstruction of government buildings and public structures damaged by the earthquake and the additional damages sustained as a result of the heavy rainfall which preceded and accompanied the main event and numerous aftershocks.There was minor structural damage to the Portsmouth Bridge and two major businesses in the Portsmouth region viz. Courts and the Rudolph Thomas Enterprise Hardware Store. The Portsmouth Police Station also suffered some minor structural damage as well as the Roosevelt Douglas Primary School. Many concrete dwelling houses in the Portsmouth and Vieille Case districts also sustained damage to the foundations, stairwells, as well as, internal and external walls and columns. Two board houses in Bornes Village collapsed. The most significant damage that was observed was the collapse of the steeples of two main churches, the St. John’s RC Church in Portsmouth and the Vieille Case RC Church.The photograph at left, shows an example of the kind of damage experienced in northern Dominica. Significant damage was seen in Les Saintes. A three-year old child was killed in Guadeloupe when a wall collapsed at his home. His mother and sister were also injured. One person in Les Saintes suffered a heart attack. (Ellsworth Carter AP). No one was injured in Dominica.Volcanic Hazards Atlas of the Lesser Antilles

The Volcanic Hazard Atlas of the Lesser Antilles was launched on the University

of the West Indies’ St. Augustine campus in April 2004. The first of its kind in the world it provides a comprehensive up-to-date summary of the current understanding of the evolution of West Indies volcanoes. It is pertinent to a broad audience ranging from island residents wanting to learn about nearby volcanoes to volcanologists from other regions interested in these impressive volcanoes.

RESEARCH

The Volcanic Hazard Atlas of the Lesser Antilles was launched on the University of the West Indies’ St. Augustine campus in April 2004. The first of its kind in the world it provides a comprehensive up-to-date summary of the current understanding of the evolution of West Indies volcanoes.

COVER OF THE VOLCANIC HAZARD ATLAS

LAUNCH OF THE VOLCANIC HAZARD ATLAS

Dr. Nicolas Fournier of the SRU (second from right) with colleagues of the IPGP on board the James Clark Ross vessel.


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The primary purpose of the Atlas is to provide an essential blueprint for planners and public officials with responsibility for managing the economic infrastructure of Eastern Caribbean islands and dealing with the hazards of Lesser Antilles volcanoes. It was created at the request of public officials in planning departments and those responsible for disaster preparedness at the time of a 2001 USAID-funded workshop on Volcanic and Seismic Hazards in the Eastern Caribbean organised by the Seismic Research Unit. The project was subsequently endorsed by the International Association for Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth’s Interior (IAVCEI), the premier volcanological organisation in the world, and its format may be used for developing atlases for similar volcanic regions in the world.Each of a dozen chapters in the atlas summarizes the volcanic history of an island or, in the case of Kick ‘em Jenny, a submarine volcanic centre. Discussion of hazards from specific volcanic processes, such as pyroclastic flows and surges associated with lava dome growth, are used to generate a colour-coded hazard map for each volcano. These data are then synthesized to provide an Integrated Volcanic Hazard Zone map showing areas of low to very

high hazard. A bibliography provides a valuable resource that includes citations for difficult to obtain unpublished reports, some of which were commissioned by regional government officials and only recently made available to the scientific community outside the West Indies.Geo-Caraibes – Eastern Caribbean Geothermal Development Project

This was an OAS sponsored Geothermal Project which focused initially on

Nevis with the objective of determining the potential for geothermal energy generation on the island. The Seismic Research Unit

provided GPS input to the field work done in connection with the project during the period August 18 to September 4, 2004. Dr. Richard Robertson and Ms. Rosemarie Mohais were the staff members directly involved with this workMontserrat Research Cruise

In May 2005, Dr. Nicolas Fournier, Volcanologist, participated in a research cruise around the

southern part of Montserrat aboard the James Clark Ross vessel (British Antarctic Survey). The cruise involved the study of the past eruptive history of the Soufrière Hills Volcano with emphasis on debris avalanche deposits, using offshore sediments core

Professor Sparks’ delivering a free public lecture at UWI’s Learning Resource Centre on the topic “Volcanic eruptions and their impact on societies”. The lecture discussed the challenges faced in predicting volcanic eruptions, the progress that has been made in this field and the invaluable societal benefits to be derived from volcanological research.PROFESSOR STEPHEN SPARKS AT THE LRC, UWI


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logging and bathymetry. This work was done in collaboration with the University of Bristol, UK (Prof. Steve Sparks, P.I.), Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, France (Dr. Georges Boudon, Dr. Jean-Christophe Komorowski, Dr. Anne Le Friant and Dr. Christine Deplus), University of Southampton, UK, University of Plymouth, UK the Montserrat Volcano Observatory, Lesser Antilles, the British Geological Survey, UK and the British Antarctic Survey, UK. Funding for the project came from the National Environmental Research Council in the UK.UWI Distinguished Open Lecture Series

The Seismic Research Unit hosted world-renowned Volcanologist, Professor Steve

Sparks, as an eminent speaker for the University of the West Indies’ Distinguished Open Lecture Series during the period April 23-28, 2006. Currently the Director of the Research Centre for Environmental and Geophysical Flows at the University of Bristol in the UK, Professor Sparks has conducted field work at volcanoes in at least sixteen different countries across the globe (including Europe, Iceland, the Andes and the Caribbean) and has been the recipient of at least twenty honorary awards. He is internationally recognized for his work on volcanology and in particular his pioneering work on the physical processes that drive eruptions. The highlight of Professor Sparks’ visit to Trinidad was a free public lecture at UWI’s Learning Resource Centre on Thursday, April 27 at 6:30pm entitled “Volcanic eruptions and their impact on societies”,.

The lecture discussed the challenges faced in predicting volcanic eruptions, the progress that has been made in this field and the invaluable societal benefits to be derived from volcanological research. During his visit Professor Sparks conducted a short course on “Fluid Mechanics in Volcanology” as well as gave a seminar for sixth form physical science students in Trinidad.CD version of the VHA

An electronic version of the Volcanic Hazard Atlas published by the Unit in 2005 was

completed at the end of 2006. The e-version of the VHA is presented as a digital video disk (DVD) which contains Adobe Acrobat files containing the Atlas in its original format. The files are organised with a web-style interface that provides links to all documents on the DVD. Selected video files are included on the DVD as bonus files to illustrate the main types of volcanic hazards to which the region is exposed. The intention is to facilitate wider circulation of the Atlas throughout the Caribbean region. Complementary copies of the DVD will be distributed to educational institutions throughout the Eastern Caribbean during 2007.RSNO Meeting

Senior Technical Representatives from various Seismic Networks around the Caribbean Basin

attended a workshop at the University of the West Indies, St. Augustine on April 4-6, 2006 to initiate plans for establishing an early warning system for Tsunami and Coastal Hazards for the Caribbean

and adjacent seas. The workshop was hosted by the Seismic Research Unit of the UWI. The St. Augustine Workshop was one of several activities recommended at the first session of the Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the Tsunami and Coastal Hazards Warning System for the Caribbean Sea and Adjacent Regions, held in Barbados in January, 2006.

Representatives of UWI, USAID/OFDA and the Government of Trinidad and Tobago at the opening ceremony of the RSNO meeting.


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Twelve seismological institutions from Puerto Rico, the Eastern Caribbean (English and French) Venezuela, Panama, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Jamaica and the USA were represented at the Trinidad workshop. The four day workshop enabled the delegates to arrive at some key decisions that will advance the process of setting up a regional system. It provided technical insights for delegates, especially those from the less resourced networks about the best upgrade paths to choose and how to rapidly configure certain existing instruments to publish and share data via computer networks. There was unanimous support for Puerto Rico to be transformed into the regional warning centre. Delegates also expressed the view that a number of secondary or backup warning centres should be established as soon as adequate resources become available to attain the necessary capacity to do so. Another important outcome of the workshop was the consensus that the overall quantity and quality of instrumentation and communication systems among existing and planned networks is inadequate to build an efficient seismic component of the TWSHazards assessments

Between May and June 2005, the Unit hosted Mr. Joel Ruch (from Geneva, Switzerland)

for a research project on volcanic risk assessment utilising the volcanic hazards maps created during the Volcanic Hazard Atlas project. The project, which was supervised by Dr. Fournier, focused on

the automated generation of data on population loss and infrastructure damage during a volcanic crisis using the Geographical Information System (GIS). A pilot study was done of the Soufrière area in Saint Lucia using the eruption scenarios defined in the Volcanic Hazard Atlas. The result of this study was presented at the Cities on Volcanoes conference in Quito (Ecuador) in January 2006.During 2006 Dr. Robertson co-supervised an MSc dissertation done by Ms. Catherine Rowe of University College London,

which mapped vulnerability, exposure and risk to volcanic hazards using GIS. A case study was made of the Soufrière volcano on St. Vincent using volcanic hazard data derived from the Volcanic Hazard Atlas and vulnerability data from the 2001 Population and Housing Census Report of the island.ONGOING PROJECTS

ICG-CARIBE EWS

The Seismic Research Unit is involved in a multi-national multi-agency initiative

launched to establish a program for reducing the risk to various coastal hazards in the Caribbean and adjacent regions. The Caribbean Charter of the Intergovernmental Oceanic Commission (IOCARIBE) spearheads this initiative which involves most regional institutions and agencies that are already engaged in the monitoring and study of coastal and other natural hazards as well as several disaster management organizations. Initially, priority is being given to the development of a Tsunami Warning System (TWS) and support programs to empower threatened communities to respond correctly to alerts and warnings. Mr. Lloyd Lynch and Dr. Richard Robertson are the members of staff that are directly involved with this initiative.

Technicians from the Seismic Research Unit and the Department of Land Surveying installed continuous GPS stations in St. Vincent, Dominica and Antigua during 2006. The data from these stations will be integrated into the SRU monitoring network in the Eastern Caribbean.

CGPS ANTENNA IN OPERATION IN ANTIGUA.

SRU technician installing cGPS antenna.


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Continuous GPS stations

In collaboration with the Department of Land Information and Survey at UWI St. Augustine,

the Unit is working with the Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change (MACC) Project and the Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre (CCCCC) to set up three continuously recording GPS (cGPS) stations in the islands of St. Vincent, Dominica and Antigua. Funding for the establishment of the stations will be obtained from the MACC Project while maintenance of the stations and data transmission will be the responsibility of Seismic Research Unit. The cGPS will enhance the Unit’s ability to undertake GPS surveys in the islands and improve our capacity for monitoring ground deformation. The stations will be used as reference stations during future GPS campaigns and will both increase the accuracy of the measurements and cut down on the costs of GPS survey campaigns in the island. In addition, the continuous data from the new stations, along with strengthened collaboration with the French Observatories in Guadeloupe and Martinique and the National Geodetic Survey of the USA will enable us to investigate the rates of inter-island motion.Numerical modeling

Due to the recent acquisition of the FEMLAB modelling environment software, the Unit

introduced some Finite Element Method (FEM)

numerical modelling of diverse volcanic processes such as magma transport and convection in magma chambers, volcano deformation and fluid flow in porous media (i.e. hydrothermal system dynamics). Between June and August 2005, the Unit hosted two third year Engineering research projects with students (Mr. Aurélien Vattré and Mr. Antoine Briday) from the Engineering School of Computing and Applied Mathematics in Toulon, France. They both worked on projects that involved some FEM modelling of convection in magma chambers and associated stress distribution at the walls of the reservoir and were supervised by Dr. Nicolas Fournier.

The results of this aspect of research at SRU was presented at the Soufrière Hills Volcano – Ten Years On Scientific Conference in Montserrat in July 2005.Fluid geochemistry & geothermal monitoring

Mrs. Erouscilla Joseph (Research Assistant) MPhil in volcanic fluid geochemistry was

upgraded in the process of being upgraded to a PhD degree. Her work was presented and well received at several international conferences (e.g. IAVCEI 2004 General Assembly in Chile). Additional collaborations have also been set up with the University of Florence (Italy) to investigate stable isotopes on volcanic fluids, hence strengthening this aspect of research at SRU.One of the main objectives for the geothermal monitoring program was the establishment of analytical facilities at the UWI for conducting analysis of volcanic gas and hydrothermal fluids. As of July 2005 this was accomplished in collaboration with the Chemistry Department, UWI, St. Augustine and analytical equipment (Ion and Gas Chromatographs) is now available to conduct both water and gas analysis. Much of the period in review was occupied with analysing and processing gas and water samples collected over the previous two years. A batch of gas samples were analysed at the University of New Mexico, USA by

A poster illustrating some of the key issues involved in hazard and risk communications and showing how research can help.


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Dr. Tobias Fisher during the refurbishment of the laboratory at the UWI. All samples collected from the previous years have now been analysed and the geochemical database is now up to date. This is a major achievement since new samples can now be routinely analysed without excessive storage time, an essential requirement in the case of a volcanic crisis. The existence of the facilities at UWI also provides an opportunity for the Unit along with the Chemistry Department to provide consultancy services in the field of volcanic gas geochemistry.One aspect of the monitoring of geothermal areas that has become of increasing concern is the issue of the health hazards related to exposure to volcanic emissions. The Unit’s monitoring program has been adjusted to address this concern and preliminary sampling and testing of hydrothermal waters that may be used for recreational purposes has begun in some islands. Preliminary results indicate that a number of elements including some heavy metals are present in concentrations over the recommended values suggested by the USEPA and WHO for human consumption/exposure.Hazards communication

Dr. Robertson is the principal SRU collaborator in a joint study with

the Centre for Environmental Risk at the University of East Anglia that seeks to systematically analyse the effectiveness of differing modes of risk and hazard communication. The project seeks to do this in a contextualised way using two islands (Dominica and St. Vincent) in the Eastern Caribbean. The project is entitled Tools for trust: assessing the most effective methods for hazard communication and has two main aims

To assess the optimal strategy for communication during periods of repose; the critical period in

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equipping a population with the information necessary to increase adaptiveness and resilience in the event of a volcanic eruption; To understand the way in which communication should evolve as volcanic activity develops.

It is hoped that the results will provide the basis for improvements in design of communications and forward modelling of population response in developing volcanic crises.Caribbean tsunami early warning system

Some 250 million people in the Caribbean and adjacent areas stand to benefit from a project

aimed at increasing the capacity of the SRU to detect,

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Poster courtesy Sian Crosweller

Technicians from the USGS assisted by colleagues from the SRU installing real-time seismic station in Barbados.


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monitor and provide early warning of tsunamis and related geologic hazards in the region. Through the generous support of the American People and the United States Government via the United States Agency for International Development’s Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance (USAID/OFDA), the Unit secured a US$249,680 grant which will be used to significantly upgrade the Unit’s seismic monitoring network and facilitate the development of information sharing policies between earthquake monitoring agencies in the Caribbean, Central America and the northern countries on the South American continent. The Government of Trinidad and Tobago has also contributed generous support

in the sum of US$140,200 to the project through the Office of Disaster Preparedness and Management.The Caribbean TWS project has two primary components: (1) to upgrade the existing monitoring network and (2) to establish clear policies for exchanging data between seismological agencies in different countries. As part of the first objective, earthquake monitoring (seismic) stations will be upgraded on St. Kitts, southern Dominica, Saint Lucia, St. Vincent, Tobago and Trinidad so as to improve accuracy and to reduce delays in processing earthquakes. A sub-set of the stations will also publish data to a regional Tsunami Warning Centre in real-time. Under a separate

project, three installations have already been provided on the islands of Barbados, Grenada and Barbuda through the United States Geological Survey (USGS). When completed, each seismic station will have the capability to detect and report potential tsunami-generating earthquakes in less than 3 minutes during normal working hours.Strong motion studies in Trinidad and Tobago

Ms. Mohais (Principal Investigator), Dr. Robertson and Mr. Lynch of the SRU and

Mr. Mohais of the Department of Mathematics and Computer Science have applied for funding to the Trinidad and Tobago Government Research Development Fund recently established at the UWI. This collaborative research project involves the deployment of strong motion instruments, the use of neural networks to identify and classify events and the derivation of localized seismic hazard maps. The application of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) method to train neural network weights is an entirely new area of research that will be undertaken during the project. The research is of great significance to vulnerable communities in Trinidad and Tobago since it will provide input to the design and construction of earthquake resistant buildings. Partial funding for this project is being sought from the Trinidad and Tobago Government Research Development Fund (TT$226,000). Additional funds will be sought from the insurance and oil companies in Trinidad and Tobago.Experimental study of magma rheology and flow

Dr. Fournier (SRU) is involved in a collaborative PhD research project between the SRU, the

Department of Physics (Dr. J C Knight) and the Department of Earth Sciences at University of Bristol UK (Dr. H M Mader). The project will exploit Caribbean volcanism as a natural laboratory for the investigation of multiphase magma rheology. It combines the excellent field capabilities of the SRU with the experimental capabilities of the Physics Department and the Department of Earth Sciences at Bristol University. The research will be undertaken in a number of phases and is

Frederic Dondin, Ph.D. student from Universite Antilles Guyane, Guadeloupe, conducting a GPS survey in Saba. Frederic is doing a collaborative research project with the SRU on numerical modelling of volcanic gravity currents in the Lesser Antilles.


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complementary to a major project, funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) of the UK that is just starting at the University of Bristol. That project is headed by Dr. H M Mader and is aimed at developing constitutive equations for particle-bearing magmas. The research student will benefit from collaboration with the Bristol Team. Partial funding for the project is being sought from the Trinidad and Tobago Government Research Development Fund (TT$250,000). The project will require additional funds which will be sought from the Campus Research and Publications Fund Committee and other sources.

Geology and physics of pyroclastic density currents in the Lesser Antilles

The SRU is currently engaged in a collaborative research project (entitled “Volcanic gravity

currents in the Lesser Antilles: geology and numerical modelling of debris avalanches, dome collapse and pyroclastic flows”), with the Universite Antilles Guyane (UAG) in Guadeloupe, France. The principal scientists on this project are Dr. Nicolas Fournier of the SRU and Professor Auran Randrianasolo, Head of the Department of Earth Science at UAG. Other participants include Dr. Karim Kelfoun, of the Laboratoire Magmas et Volcans, Universite Blaise Pascal, Clermont-Ferrand France and Mr. Frederic Dondin of the UAG.The main objective of the project is to accurately model debris avalanches, dome collapses and pyroclastic flows in the Lesser Antilles in order to

better assess hazards, especially during a volcanic crisis. The project has tremendous potential for hazard mapping and improving our understanding of explosive eruptions, both terrestrial and aquatic and will assist in the assessment of potential volcanogenic sources for tsunamis. Once the numerical models are sufficiently robust, they will be applied to all volcanoes that fall under the responsibility of the SRU. We will also be able to produce numerous scenarios of dome building eruptions (the most likely type of eruption in most Caribbean islands) and create accurate hazard maps that are dynamic and so can be adjusted as

an eruption evolves.Vulnerability and risk assessment of volcanic islands

Dr. Robertson is involved in a collaborative PhD project with the Benfield UCL

Hazard Research Centre, the Department of Geomatic Engineering and the Department of Geography, University College London, to develop a GIS based method for risk and vulnerability assessment of volcanic islands. The ultimate aim of this PhD project is to design and test a GIS based methodology for risk and vulnerability assessment on volcanic islands.

There are two main objectives within this. First, to improve current volcanic risk assessments through stakeholder engagement. Also by including socio-economic vulnerability data as well as the traditional physical vulnerability data in a quantifiable form that can be mapped. This would be completed in conjunction with the emergency planners in the study areas who are the end-users of risk assessments to ascertain what information they would want included, what is practical and useful. The second objective is to utilise the functions of GIS to streamline the risk assessment process. In particular a GIS’s ability to store large datasets, visualise data and update maps. The study will focus on the volcanic islands of Dominica and St. Vincent in the Eastern Caribbean and is expected to be completed in 2009. The research is being funded by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) of the U.K.

Scientist taking measurements atop the Soufriere volcano as part of a project to investigate whether there is any water in the ground beneath the crater.


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Hydrogeological model of Soufrière volcano, St. Vincent

This is a 2-year multidisplinary collaborative effort between the SRU (Dr. Fournier) and

the Department of Petroleum Geosciences and Department of Surveying and Land Information, UWI St. Augustine. The main objective of the project is to assess the lack of reformation of a crater lake at the summit of the Soufrière volcano of St. Vincent following its ejection during the 1979 eruption. The main components of the project are to:

Re-assess the water balance from the crater endoreic catchment (without surface outlet such as rivers). This involves quantitative measurements of water entering and leaving the crater catchment, taking into account the possibility that additional fluid (hydrothermal fluid of magma water) could be added to the system within the volcano itself.Study the chemical changes of water through the edifice using the fumarole from the active dome and the warm springs chemistry to attempt to distinguish between a mixing between volcanic fluids and meteoritic water system and a simply heated groundwater system. Estimate the volume of water present underground in the active crater, using resistivity survey. This is of critical importance as the water/magma ratio in near surface in case of renewal of activity is a driving parameter for explosive eruptions.Built a dynamic conceptual model of groundwater circulation in the upper part of the volcano, which could adapt to possible future changes if geological activity occurs.

Funding was provided from the Campus Research and Publications Fund. Two successful field campaigns were conducted in 2005 and 2006. The latter campaign featured in the STAN issue of April-June 2006 under the caption “Soufrière’s inferno”. The most recent campaign in July 2006 was the first resistivity survey at the bottom of the crater of Soufrière - and one of the only ones in

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the world for an explosive type of active volcano. Submission of an article to Geophysical Research Letters is scheduled for the first quarter of 2007 (results of the resistivity survey).Multidisciplinary modelling of the activity at the Boiling Lake, Dominica

The aim is to better understand the driving mechanisms for recent changes at the Boiling

Lake (successive emptying and refilling of the lake). This project, led by Dr. Fournier (SRU) involves hydrological and groundwater flow modelling (in collaboration with the Department of Petroleum Geosciences (UWI, St. Augustine), Energy and Mass Balance modelling (SRU) and physical modelling of bubble driven buoyancy (in collaboration with the University of Bristol). The results of this project will be submitted as a paper to Journal of Geophysical Research.

Participants at the Soufriére Hills Volcano Ten Years On Scientific Conference discuss a poster.

The Soufrière Hills Volcano - Ten Years On Scientific

Conference...provided ample opportunities for interaction of participants with the Montserratiian community.


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For at least one half of 2004-2005, the Education Officer was absent due to a difficult pregnancy and subsequent

maternity leave. As a result, education and outreach activities were not as substantial as in previous years. Nonetheless, the Unit continued to facilitate student lectures both on and off site, public lectures were conducted by scientists during routine visits to the islands under our responsibility, staff members participated in various radio, newspaper and television interviews and the website continued to be a valuable communication and educational resource.

OUTREACH Student Lectures

A total of twenty-seven (27) student lectures were delivered to students both in-house

and off-site during the year. With the exception of two lectures to a primary school and three to a group of University students, all of the lectures

were presented to secondary school students. All students were from Trinidad & Tobago schools with the exception of a student visit from Charlestown High School in Nevis. In April 2006, Distinguished Open Lecture Series participant, Prof. RSJ Sparks, delivered a presentation to which all lower sixth form students of Trinidad & Tobago were invited.Public Lectures

Public lectures were conducted by scientists during routine visits to the islands under the

Unit’s responsibility. At least six public lectures were delivered to audiences in Trinidad & Tobago during the reporting period. Following the September 29, 2006 magnitude 5.8 earthquake near Trinidad, there have been numerous requests from Health & Safety personnel at both private and public agencies, for lectures on earthquake vulnerability and preparedness. A proposal for a half-day seminar on this topic for Health & Safety personnel will be submitted to the Office of Disaster Preparedness & Management (Trinidad) in the first quarter of 2007.

MEDIA RELATIONS

Newspapers

During the reporting period twelve (12) feature articles were produced and printed in among

regional, local (Trinidad & Tobago) or campus media (UWI Today, STAN). These features are separate and apart from scientific advisories disseminated to disaster management agencies and the media following a geologic event.Television & Radio

Staff participated in numerous television and radio interviews across the region. These

interviews were conducted both in response to specific geologic events as well as to promote public awareness of geohazards.

WEBSITE

During the reporting period, the website continued to be a valuable communication and

educational resource. This was clearly evidenced by the dramatic increase in website visits during the magnitude 6.1 earthquake near Dominica in

DEPARTMENTAL OUTREACH

Figure 6: Total number of new visitors logging on to the website during the reporting period.

Figure 7: The total number of people visiting the website during the reporting period.


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November 2004 (6088) and in the weeks following the earthquake and subsequent tsunami on the December 26, 2004 in the Indian Ocean (5878).In the first quarter of 2006 Matrix Designs was contracted to refurbish the website. The launch of the new website is planned for 2007.

WORKSHOPS

Caribbean Youth Science Forum (CYSF)

The National Institute of Higher Education, Research, Science and Technology (NIHERST)

hosted lower sixth form science students from across the region for the annual Caribbean Youth Science Forum (CYSF) in July 2005 and 2006. Aimed at promoting the study of science and technology among young people, CYSF hosted 150 students in 2005 and 250 students in 2006 from at least seven Caribbean countries for a week of activities at The University of the West Indies’ St. Augustine Campus. Scientists from the Seismic Research Unit participated in this forum by presenting lectures on careers in the Earth Sciences and providing general

information on geologic processes and hazards in the Eastern Caribbean.Regional Seismic Network Operators Meeting

A Tsunami and Coastal Hazards Workshop for Senior Technical Network Representatives

of Caribbean Basin Seismic Agencies was coordinated by the Seismic Research Unit in April, 2006. Funded by USAID/OFDA, this meeting was an important part of the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of UNESCO’s effort to establish an early warning system for Tsunami and Coastal Hazards in the region. The primary objective of the meeting was to ascertain the current regional capability and plan for future operations with regard to a regional tsunami warning system. Approximately twenty-five participants from across the region attended the three-day workshop.Distinguished Open Lecture Series

Designed to draw national attention to leading global issues, UWI’s Distinguished Open

Lecture Series selects lecturers who are leaders in their respective fields to bring new perspectives to these issues. In April 2006, the SRU hosted world-renowned volcanologist, Professor Steve Sparks, as an eminent speaker for this series. Professor Sparks is internationally recognized for his work on volcanology and in particular his pioneering work on the physical processes that drive eruptions. In addition to delivering a free public lecture, during Professor Sparks’ visit the SRU coordinated a short course on “Fluid Mechanics in Volcanology” as well as a seminar for lower sixth form physical science students to which all sixth form students in Trinidad & Tobago were invited.SPECIAL PROJECTS

NIHERST Natural Hazards Travelling Exhibit

Scientists from the Unit continued to provide expert advice to NIHERST for the development

of the earthquake and volcano components of NIHERST’s Natural Hazards travelling exhibit.Volcanic Hazard Atlas of the Lesser Antilles Multi-media Version

In May 2005, the SRU published the Volcanic Hazard Atlas of the Lesser Antilles. Funded


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by the USAID/OFDA through the Caribbean Development Bank, the VHA is a comprehensive source of information on all of the volcanic islands of the Eastern Caribbean. Production of a DVD version of the VHA began in the second quarter of 2006 and the DVD should be launched in the first quarter of 2007.Soufriére Hills Volcano – Ten Years On Scientific Conference

To mark the 10th anniversary of the eruption of the Soufrière Hills Volcano on Montserrat,

the Seismic Research Unit in collaboration with the Montserrat Volcano Observatory organized an international conference in Montserrat entitled ‘Soufrière Hills Volcano - Ten Years On Scientific Conference’ from 24-30 July 2005. The final programme consisted of five thematic sessions, spread over three days and included a number of social events, one panel discussion, and one public lecture along with several radio and television interviews and call-in programmes that provided ample opportunities for interaction of participants with the Montserratian community. Ninety scientific abstracts were received, fifty-one of which were accepted as oral presentations and thirty-nine as poster presentations. The conference attracted over one hundred participants including scientists, research students, emergency management personnel, public health officials and educators from across the globe (Caribbean, Mexico, USA, Canada, UK, France, Germany, Italy, New Zealand and Japan).

Wilkie Balgobin, John Shepherd, Godfrey Almorales

The year in review saw the retirement of three long-

serving members of staff and the appointment of a new Head of Department.


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The period under review has seen the retirement of several long-serving members of staff and a change in the Headship of the

Unit.

CHANGES

Academic, Senior Administrative and Professional StaffProfessor John Shepherd retired from the University with effect from November, 2004. Professor Shepherd served the University and the Unit a total of 29 years divided amongst two stints that lasted from 1965-1989 and 1999-2004. During 14 years of the time he spent at the Unit he served as Head of Department. Professor Shepherd’s expertise will be sorely missed.Dr. Richard Robertson was appointed Acting Head of the Unit (November 1, 2004 to June 30, 2005) when Professor Shepherd retired in November 2004. He was appointed substantive Head from July 2005.Dr. Nicolas Fournier joined the Unit in August 2004 replacing Dr. Lindsay who retired in November 2003. Dr. Fournier joins the Unit

from the Observatoire de Physique du Globe de Clermont, Université Blaise Pascal, Clermont-Ferrand, France where he had a post-doctoral position following a PhD at the Open University in the UK.Ms. Rosemarie Mohais who joined the Unit on February 1, 2004 as Junior Research Fellow was given a three-year contract with effect from June 2005. Ms Mohais initially served as the understudy to Professor Shepherd in his role as geophysicist in the Unit until his retirement in November 2004.As a result of these changes the academic staff on June 30, 2005 was as shown in Table 2.Of eight academic and related staff four are women, seven are West Indians and six are UWI graduates.Administrative, Technical and Service Staff

Mr. Godfrey Almorales, who was the longest serving member of the Unit’s staff retired

on November 28, 2004. Mr. Almorales joined the Unit in 1964 and functioned as draughtsman until 1987, when he was moved to the seismology section to help strengthen that team to meet the demands of a growing network. Mr. Almorales was given a six-month post-retirement contract when he retired so as to allow for continuity and training of his replacement. He has served the Unit for forty-one years and his knowledge and experience will be greatly missed.Mr. Wilkie Balgobin retired on November 28, 2004. He joined the Unit in 1972 and has functioned as electronics technician since that time. His thirty-two years of experience at the Unit will be deeply missed.Ms Kym Chan Chow joined the seismology team on June 1, 2004 and will replace Mr. Almorales when his post-retirement contract (which was extended to November 2005) comes to an end.Ms Jeanine Richardson joined the electronics team on June 1, 2005 replacing Mr. Balgobin who retired in November 2004. She resigned on April 31, 2006 and was replaced by Mr. Garth Mannette who assumed duties on May 1, 2006.Mr. Lutchman Pollard, the Unit’s Chief Technician since the late 1980s retired on September 1, 2005.

STAFF


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He had been on staff since 1966. His services were retained for an additional year as the Unit sought to fill the complement of research technicians during the year.Mr. Barry Jordan resigned on July 21, 2006 during his probationary period as a Grade 7 Research Technician.Ms Shirley Bethelmy, the Unit’s cleaner for over 26 years retired in June 2006.As a result of these changes the Administrative, Technical and Service staff on June 30, 2005 was as shown in Table 2.ACTIVITIES

Staff activities

This section outlines staff activities, which have not been described already in the subject

specific parts of this report. The Publications

section indicates the areas in which members of staff have been particularly active.Dr. Nicolas Fournier

RESEARCH IN PROGRESS:

Fluids geochemistry in the Lesser Antilles: volcanic gas and hot springs chemistry and temperature, equilibrium temperatures, water balance, elements and energy budget.Ground deformation monitoring using GPS (data processing using both Leica Geo Office (for short baselines) and other software (e.g. GIPSY/OASIS) for longer baselines).Numerical modelling using Finite Element Method: development of a FEM code to model 3D volcanic ground deformation due to pressure sources (e.g. magma chamber replenishment, magma intrusion). Also modelling of magma transfer and convection

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Name Post

Richard R. Robertson B.Sc. (UWI), M. Phil (Leeds), Ph.D (UWI) Director/HeadLloyd L. Lynch B.Sc. (UWI) Research Fellow (Instrumentation)Joan Latchman B.Sc., M. Phil (UWI) Research Fellow (Seismology).Nicolas Fournier B.Sc. M.Sc (Clermond-Ferrand), Ph.D.(OU) Research Fellow (Volcanology)Chandranath Ramsingh B.Sc. (UWI) Information Technology Officer 1.Stacey Edwards B.A. (Howard), Ed.M (Harvard) Education OfficerRosemarie Mohais B.Sc. M.Phil (UWI) Junior Research Fellow (Geophysics)Erouscilla Patricia Joseph B.Sc. M.Phil. (UWI) Research Assistant (Geochemistry)

Frederic Dondin B.Sc. (Paris VI), M.Sc. (Rennes I) Visiting Researcher (Volcanology)

(b) Administrative, Technical and Service Staff.

Mr. Lutchman Pollard Chief TechnicianMs. Nisha Nath Research TechnicianMs. Kym Chan Chow Research TechnicianMr. Ian Juman Electronics TechnicianMr. Garth Mannette Engineering TechnicianMrs. Yvonne Joseph Secretary/StenographerMr. Kumar Rampersadsingh Office AssistantMr. Nolan Ali General Maintenance AssistantMr. Armoogam Moonsammy Gardener

Table 2: Staff at the Seismic Research Unit at at July 31, 2006.(a) Academic, Senior Administrative and Professional Staff.


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in magma chambers and associated stress on the chamber walls and post-dome collapse volcano deformation. The first stage is to develop forward modelling using a linear elastic medium in FEMLAB. The second stage will be to use the MATLAB interface with FEMLAB to do the inversion (i.e. starting from the data to retrieve the source parameters). The whole idea is to ultimately enter the ground deformation data (e.g. GPS) and inverse them to find out volume, shape and overpressure of magma bodies.Gravity survey: high-resolution gravity survey at Soufrière of St. Vincent. This is part of a multidisciplinary project submitted to Research and Publication funds by SRU, Chemical Engineering, UWI and Land and Survey Dept, UWI. This project includes a detailed topographic survey of the summit area, hydrogeology, Self Potential and resistivity.Terrain correction is automated using DEMs and MATLAB. 2.5D forward modelling using GravMag software (BGS) and 3D inversion modelling using the GROWTH code from Camacho.

OTHER PROJECTS:

November 2004: Workshop on gravity flow modelling using TITAN2D (with Prof. Michael Sheridan and Prof. Marcus Bursik, University at Buffalo, USA) in Pucon, ChileAutomated generation of Earthquake maps (i.e. Surfer maps with epicentres) using a combination of Visual Basic, VBA Scripter for Surfer and MATLAB.

STUDENT SUPERVISION:

Erouscilla Joseph, PhD, 2002–present. Seismic Research Unit, The University of the West Indies. Topic: Geochemical studies of hydrothermal areas of the Lesser Antilles: Implications for geothermal and volcanic monitoring. Co-supervisor: Dr. Denise BecklesFrédéric Dondin, PhD, 2005-present. Seismic Research Unit, UWI / University of

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Guadeloupe and French Guyana, West Indies. Topic: Geology and physics of pyroclastic density currents in the Lesser Antilles: mixed approach field survey/modelling. Co-supervisor: Prof. Auran RandrianasoloArleene Atwell-Martinez, MPhil, 2005-present. Dept of Surveying and Land Information, UWI / Seismic Research Unit, UWI. Topic: Topographic and structural study of Soufrière volcano, St. Vincent, W.I. Co-supervisor: Dr. Keith MillerChristopher Williams, 2005 final year B.Sc. Geology project, The University of the West Indies, Mona Campus, Jamaica. Topic: Petrology and geological mapping of the Valley of Desolation, Dominica, West Indies. Co-supervisor: Dr. Richard RobertsonAntoine Briday and Aurélien Vattre, 2nd year Engineering students, June-August 2005. Seismic Research Unit, The University of the West Indies / Engineering School of Computing and Applied Mathematics of Toulon (ISITV), France. Topic: Finite Element Method numerical modelling of melt transport in magma chambers and associated volcano ground deformation

Ms. E. Joseph


Geochemical studies of hydrothermal areas of the Lesser Antilles: Implications for geothermal and volcanic monitoring. MPhil in Volcanology upgraded to PhD during the year in review. Supervisor: Drs Nicolas Fournier (SRU) and Denise Beckles (Chemistry Dept.).OTHER ACTIVITIES:

Successfully prepared and orally presented a proposal for upgrade from MPhil to PhD.Pursued various courses in the BSc. Petroleum Geosciences program as part of the requirement for MPhil in Volcanology.Conducted analyses on samples collected on geothermal sampling trips done during the present and previous years.Purchased equipment and set up a small chemistry lab at the Seismic Research Unit.

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Preparation of gas sampling flasks used for geothermal sampling can now be conducted at the Unit. Sent gas samples collected over the previous year to Dr. Fisher for analysis in New Mexico.Conducted sampling of geothermal features in St. Lucia and assisted in GPS monitoring campaign on the island.Ordered field gear for SRU staff.Worked with Chemistry Department to set up a new Gas Chromatograph for volcanic gas analysis on the main campus.

Ms. J. Latchman


Tobago and Earthquakes: This is a PhD project registered with The University of the West Indies. Three (3) themes are under investigation:

Forecasting of the strongest 1997 earthquake near Tobago using b-value analysis and other indicators– this theme reports on the b-value analysis conducted during the activity of 1997, which led to the projection that a stronger earthquake was imminent; examine the data for other short-term indicators of stronger activity.Projected seismicity near Tobago based on past seismicity near and off to the east of Tobago – this theme examines the entire database of significant earthquakes near, and in the far-field off the east of Tobago, as far as the Vema Fracture Transform, with a view to improving the understanding of the tectonics at work in the generation of earthquakes near Tobago. The possibility of faults being pushed closer to failure by remote earthquakes is becoming of more interest in the seismological community, and this particular chapter is currently being tailored for journal submission at an early date.Hydrological effects of the April 22, 1997 Tobago earthquake – this theme documents, and analyses the groundwater impact of the strongest shock of the 1997 series, by collecting

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information from government agencies and property owners. A possible model consistent with the observations is used to determine the change in the size of crack apertures, which gave rise to the large volume of observed groundwater discharge.

OTHER PROJECTS:

Partition the Eastern Caribbean into zones for the purpose of analysing piece-wise gradients of the Gutenberg-Richter Law, with a view to recognising the imminence of significant seismic activity. This study also has made accessible previously unavailable statistics of earthquake activity associated with the islands of the Eastern Caribbean.Apply the piece-wise b-value technique to a global dataset. The study suggested that an earthquake of magnitude greater than 8.5 was possibly imminent. It was for that reason the paper was submitted, with a measure of urgency, to Geophysical Journal International on December 01, 2004. The technique, which was successfully applied to the 1982 and 1997 earthquake sequences, was developed here at the Unit. The paper has been reviewed, and is accepted subject to revision.Apply the piece-wise b-value technique to San Andreas Fault activity and to the Sumatran area of the recent great earthquakes.Examine the possible correlation between Eastern Caribbean volcanic episodes, and remote stimulation.

Mr. L. Lynch


Application of Distributed Computing Techniques in earthquake and volcano monitoring: This is a PhD project registered at the University of the West Indies. This research project is primarily concerned with the integration of Information and Telecommunication Technology (ITT) into the regional seismic data acquisition/monitoring network. Investigations continued in the following three areas.

Use of broadband Internet access technology

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(Asymmetrical Digital Subscriber Line) and digital radio telemetry (Wireless Ethernet and Spread Spectrum radios) to improve the “last mile” segment of the seismic data communication network.Use of Watchdog Timer and other techniques to improve the availability and reliability of the remote data acquisition/monitoring systems.Development of a middleware software package that is suitable computer-networking infrastructure in the Eastern Caribbean. Two areas of development are being undertaken. The first employs traditional HTTP and FTP methods while the second method uses message queuing techniques.

The Indian Ocean tsunami of December 26, 2004 re-stimulated the drive to establish a regional Tsunami Warning System and strengthened the prospects for the establishment of a regional VSAT network to facilitate data and message communication. In anticipation of this we have started to investigate how the regional earthquake and volcano monitoring network infrastructure can be adapted to use satellite communication technology.OTHER PROJECTS:

Seismic Hazard Assessment: Using unclipped broadband recordings of strong earthquakes from three or more stations across the region we are studying ground motion attenuation patterns in order to gain better insights of the best attenuation relationship to use in future seismic hazard assessments. The results of this investigation is also being used to validate the last (2003) revision of regional hazard maps which use attenuation functions that were selected based on clues derived from recordings of a few strong earthquakes in the Trinidad and Tobago area.Earthquake Risk Reduction in Schools: The aim if this project is to develop an earthquake preparedness model plan for schools that can be adapted and put into effect on a national

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scale. We have chosen the University School as our model and have prepared the plan. It will be tested and refined in the current 2005-2006 school year.

OTHER ACTIVITIES:

Represented the Seismic Research Unit and the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Response Agency at an International Conference for the Development of a Tsunami and Coastal Hazards Warning System for the Caribbean and Adjacent Regions that was held in Sevilla Palace Hotel, Mexico City, 1-3 June, 2005

Ms. Rosemarie Mohais


Strong motion network: Investigation of the data obtained from an existing 4-station strong motion network on the island of Trinidad. These stations have been recording data intermittently for over four years since the initial installation (2000). Being in its infancy, there have been many teething problems arising in the collection and analysis of the data that is obtained from the network. The major limitation of the network is the sparse density distribution of the stations. Notwithstanding the obvious limitations of the network, data analysis has been ongoing with an aim to compare the various magnitudes of strong motion recorded at the four locations. Over 1600 data sets have already been examined and the 400+ signals from earthquakes with magnitude (Md >2.0) recorded over the last four years have already been evaluated to determine the peak ground acceleration (PGA), both in a horizontal and vertical orientation. The next stage of development involves correlations of the magnitude and PGA of specific felt events with intensity maps, soil type and epicentral distance. Some of the results of this study have been presented to a team of international geophysicists and seismologists at the GFZ, Potsdam in September 2005. The culmination of this exercise will lead to new attenuation relationships which can be used in creating

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updated seismic hazard maps for Trinidad.Kick ‘em Jenny submarine volcano: There are two main areas of interest concerning the Kick ‘em Jenny Volcano. The first involves the examination of the seismic signals collected during the 2001 eruption and the second deals with improved geophysical monitoring of the volcano.

Origin of seismic signals: Along with Professor John Shepherd (retired SRU, UWI), the seismic data obtained from broadband records of the 2001 eruption were analysed to determine distribution and location of the events using the bathymetric profile of the volcano obtained during the 2003 exploratory cruise. This data was then normalized and compressed into a time dependent signal over the eruption period. The main aim of my research is to determine possible origins of the seismic signals. Thus far even though researchers have proposed possible origins of the signals, there has been no extensive mathematical analysis conducted to verify these claims. We are in the process of examination of the harmonics of the seismic signals with a view to determine whether or not the signals may have as a possible origin, the resonance of gas bubbles within confined spaces or conduits. We are also interested in the propagation of gas bubbles emanating from the volcano and reaching the surface through the data obtained from hydrophones deployed close to the volcano.Improved geophysical monitoring of the volcano: In collaboration with several researchers from the US, the main collaborator being David Palmer (NOAA), a project was conceived to use acoustical and geochemical techniques to quantitatively characterise the degassing associated with Kick ‘em Jenny. We hope that the results of the acoustical monitoring of the bubbles as well as the gas composition will provide an early indicator of imminent violent eruptions. This project has not yet obtained funding from the NSF. However a draft of this project is also being presented to various other funding agencies within the US

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in order to embark on a two year study which involves deployment of geophysical equipment over short term and long term periods and the collection, analysis and interpretation of data obtained.Chaos associated with seismic swarms: The phenomenon of chaotic time dependence of natural events has prompted some interest in the examination of seismic earthquake swarms associated with the island of Dominica. This research is concerned with possible chaotic attractors associated with swarm activity observed over the long term period 1960-2003 as well as any attractors associated with individual swarm sequences especially over the period 2000-2003. PhD Studies in Mathematics: This is a PhD project; registered with The University of the West Indies. It is focused on theoretical heat transfer problems in various geometries with emphasis on permeable boundary conditions. The problems focus on deformable and non-deformable boundaries using Cartesian, cylindrical polar and spherical polar coordinates. I intend to build on these theoretical problems using other advanced geometries to apply the theory to geophysical fluid dynamics especially to fluid flow and heat transfer with magma chambers and expandable, deformable or collapsible conduits


Sue Ann Marquis, Internship at SRU from University of Bremen, Germany. Topic: Strong Motion Data Analysis.

Dr. R. Robertson


Volcanic hazard and risk assessment in the Lesser Antilles: update and revision of volcanic hazard maps for live volcanoes in the Lesser Antilles. Application of GIS spatial integration and analysis techniques to create risk maps utilising volcanic hazards maps.Assessment of SRU public information program: development of a routine and

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sustainable methods for ongoing review and assessment of the SRU public information and education program. This work also involves the assessment of the effectiveness of this program with a view towards its improvement.High MgO basalts on St. Vincent and evolution of volcanism on the island: ongoing investigations of the geology of the southern volcanic centres on St. Vincent island with particular reference to the occurrence of high MgO basalts and their relationship to the development of magmatism on the island.Ground Deformation: continued occupation and expansion of the ground deformation network established over the past 3 years in the Eastern Caribbean. Specifically re-occupation of sites in Grenada, St. Vincent, St. Lucia, Dominica, St. Kitts & Nevis and establishment of networks in Saba, Statia and Tobago.


Sian Crossweller, PhD, 2004-2007. The Centre for Environmental Risk, University of East Anglia, UK. Topic: Tools for trust: assessing the most effective methods for hazard communication.Meisha Mathurin, 2nd year BSc (Hons) Geological Hazards student at the University of Portsmouth, UK, April 2005. Topic: A Volcanic Hazard Assessment of St. Lucia.

Staff Public & Professional ServiceS. Edwards

Member, International Geoscience Education Organisation CouncilMember, International Oceanographic Commission (IOCARIBE) Working group 4Member, The University School Parent-Teacher-Network ExecutiveMember, The University School Association

N. Fournier

Member, International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth’s Interior

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Member, American Geophysical Union E.P. Joseph

Member, International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth’s Interior Member, American Geophysical Union Member, International Volcanic Health Hazard Network

J.L. Latchman

Member, Geological Society of Trinidad and TobagoMember, Seismological Society of America

L. Lynch

Member, The University School CouncilMember, APETT sub-committee for seismic provision for the Building CodeMember, Intergovernmental Oceanic Commission Tsunami Group of ExpertsMember, Working Group 2: Monitoring and Detection Systems, Warning Guidance of the IOC Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the Tsunami and other Coastal Hazards Warning System for the Caribbean and Adjacent Regions (ICG/CARIBE – EWS)

R. E. Mohais

Member, American Geophysical UnionMember, American Mathematical SocietyMember, American Society of Mechanical Engineers

R. E. A. Robertson

Member, American Geophysical Union Member, Geological Society of LondonMember, Geological Society of Trinidad and TobagoMember, International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth’s InteriorMember, Board of Directors of the Montserrat Volcano Observatory Member, Technical Advisory Team on Disaster Management in Trinidad and TobagoMember, Montserrat Scientific Advisory CommitteeChairperson, Local and Scientific Organising

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Date Conference/Meeting Convenor Location Staff membr PaperAug. 10-17, 2004 International Workshop:

MYRES I-Meeting for Young Researchers in the Earth Sciences

NSF1 La Jolla, San Diego, USA

R. Mohais & E. Joseph No

Nov. 14-19, 2004 IAVCEI General Assembly IAVCEI2 Pucon, Chile J.B. Shepherd, R. Robertson, N. Fournier, S. Ali & E. Joseph

Yes

Feb. 21, 2005 Regional Tsunami Consultation

CDERA3 Accra Beach Hotel, Barbados

R. Robertson & L. Lynch

Yes

Mar. 2, 2005 Inaugural meeting of the Regional Organisations of the Caribbean Community

CDERA3 CDERA Coordinating Unit, Barbados

R. Robertson Yes

Apr. 4-6, 2005 FA-HUM US South COM4 Trinidad J. Latchman YesApr. 14-15, 2005 18th Annual Technical

Conference on Engineering Infrastructure, Planning and Development for Disaster Preparedness and Mitigation

APETT5 UWI, Trinidad J. Latchman Yes

Apr. 27-29, 2005 Seismological Society of America annual meeting

SSA6 Lake Tahoe, Nevada

J. Latchman Yes

May 17-20, 2005 Fourth International Conference on Computational Heat and Mass Transfer

International Scientific Committee

University of Cergy-Pontoise, France

R. Mohais Yes

May 24-25, 2005 15th Meeting of the Board of Directors of CDERA

CDERA3 British Virgin Islands

R. Robertson Yes

May 27, 2005 Meeting of the Governing Board of the Montserrat Volcano Observatory (MVO)

MVO7 Montserrat R. Robertson No

Jul. 19, 2005 Second meeting of the Regional Organisations of the Caribbean Community

CDERA3 CDERA Coordinating Unit, Barbados

R. Robertson No

Jul. 24-30, 2005 Soufrière Hills Volcano Ten Years On Scientific Conference

SRU8 Vue Pointe Hotel, Montserrat

R. Robertson, N. Fournier, L. Lynch, J. Latchman, E. Joseph

Yes

Sep-Oct, 2005 International Workshop on Seismology & Seismic Hazard Assessment

GFZ9 Potsdam Germany

R. Mohais Yes

Table 3: Conferences and international meetings


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Committee for the Soufrière Hills Volcano – Ten Years On… Scientific Conference, held in Montserrat during the period 24-30th July 2005UNESCO Expert on Geological features in the CaribbeanVice-Chair of Working Group 3: Warning, Dissemination and Communication of the

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CONFERENCES AND MEETINGS

Table 3 summarises the involvement of staff in national and international meetings:

Date Conference/Meeting Convenor Location Staff membr PaperDec. 2-6, 2005 Special Two Day

Conference on Earthquake Engineering

Caribbean Division of the Institution of Structural Engineers

Mount Irvine Bay Hotel, Tobago

J. Latchman Yes

10-12 Jan 2006 First Session of the ICG for Tsunami and other Coastal Hazards Warning System for the Caribbean Sea and Adjacent Regions

UNESCO10 Bridgetown, Barbados

R. Robertson, L. Lynch No

23 Jan 2006 World Organization of Volcano Observatories Meeting

WOVO11 Quito, Ecuador E. Joseph Yes

23-27 Jan 2006 Cities on Volcanoes 4 Conference

IAVCEI2 Quito, Ecuador E. Joseph. Yes

14-19 Mar 2006 Short Course on Fluid Mechanics in Volcanology

SRU8 St. Augustine, Trinidad

R. Robertson, N. Fournier, L. Lynch, J. Latchman, E. Joseph, R. Mohais

No

27-29 Mar 2006 Third International Conference on Early Warning

German Committee for Disaster Reduction

Bonn, Germany L. Lynch No

9-14 Jul 2006 IRIS Management of Waveform Data and Metadata from Seismic Networks

IRIS12 Sao Paulo, Brazil

J. Latchman No

4-6 Apr 2006 Tsunami and Coastal Hazards Workshop for Senior Technical Network Representatives of Caribbean Basin Seismic Agencies

SRU St. Augustine, Trinidad

L. Lynch, J. Latchman, R. Robertson

Yes

10-21 Jul 2006 Museum Institute for Teaching Science Summer Institute

MITS13 Boston, MA, USA

S. Edwards No

KEY TO ACRONYMS USED IN TABLE 31 NSF = National Science Foundation of the USA2 IAVCEI = International Association for the Chemistry and Volcanology of the Earth’s Interior3 CDERA = Caribbean Disaster Emergency Response Agency4 US South COM = United States Southern Command (US Army)5 APETT = Association of Professional Engineers of Trinidad and Tobago6 SSA = Seismological Society of America7 MVO = Montserrat Volcano Observatory8 SRU = Seismic Research Unit9 GFZ = GeoForschungsZentrum National Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation10 UNESCO = United National Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation11 WOVO = World Organisation of Volcano Observatories12 IRIS = Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology13 MITS = Museum Institute for Teaching Science


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The Seismic Research Unit strengthened its capacity through collaborations with the following institutions:

Aspinall & Associates, United KingdomBritish Geological Survey, UKBritish Antarctic Survey, UKCalifornia State University, Department of Geological Sciences, USACaribbean Community Climate Change Centre. BelizeCentro Regional de Sismologia para America del Sur (CERESIS), South AmericaCoventry University, School of Science and the Environment, United KingdomGeological Survey of Canada, Pacific Division, CanadaIndiana University, Department of Geological Sciences, USAInstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, ItalyInstitut de Physique du Globe de Paris, FranceLaboratoire de Physique des Géomatériaux, IPGP, FranceMassachusetts Institute of Technology, USAMontserrat Volcano Observatory, MontserratNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency, USANational Environmental Research Council, UK

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Naval Research Laboratory, USAObservatoire de Physique du Globe de Clermont-Ferrand, FranceRowan University, Computer Science Department, USASaudi Geological Survey, Saudi ArabiaSoufrière Monitoring Unit, Ministry of Agriculture, St. VincentThe University of Bristol, Department of Earth Sciences, United KingdomThe University of the West Indies, Department of Chemical Engineering, St. AugustineThe University of the West Indies, Department of Petroleum Geosciences, St. AugustineThe University of the West Indies, Department of Surveying and Land Information, St. AugustineUnited States Geological SurveyUniversite Antilles Guyane, GuadeloupeUniversity of East Anglia, School of Environmental Sciences, United KingdomUniversity of New Mexico , USAUniversity of Miami, USAUniversity of Plymouth, UKUniversity of Southampton, UKUniversity of Washington, Department of Geophysics, USA

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Joan Latchman (second from left) after presenting a part of her Ph.D. research on earthquakes near Tobago. This part of her research was supervised by Dr. William P. Aspinall, Bristol University.


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PARTNERSHIPS AND COLLABORATIONS

Seismic authors in bold text

REFEREED JOURNALS

Fournier N, Rymer H, Williams-Jones G and Brenes J. (2004): High-resolution gravity survey: investigation of subsurface structures at Poás volcano, Costa Rica. Geophysical Research Letters, 31, L15602, doi: 10.1029/2004GL020563.Trofimovs J., Amy L., Boudon G., Deplus C., Doyle E., Fournier N., Hart M.M.B., Komorowski J-C., Le Friant A., Lock E., Pudsey C., Ryan G., Sparks R.S.J. and Talling P.J. (2006) Submarine pyroclastic deposits formed at the Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat (1995-2003): what happens when pyroclastic flows enter the ocean? Geology, 34 (7), 549-552.Refereed Books and Book ChaptersLindsay, J.M., Robertson R.E.A., Shepherd, J.B. & Ali, S. (eds) 2005: Volcanic Hazard Atlas of the Lesser Antilles. Seismic Research Unit, The University of the West Indies, Trinidad and Tobago, W.I., 279p. ISBN 976-95142-0-9.Lindsay, J.M., Smith, A.L., Roobol, M.J. & Stasiuk, M.V. (2005): Dominica. In: Lindsay, J.M., Robertson R.E.A., Shepherd, J.B. & Ali, S. (eds) 2005: Volcanic Hazard Atlas of the Lesser Antilles. Seismic Research Unit, The University of the West Indies, Trinidad and Tobago, W.I. pp. 1-66.Lindsay, J.M. & Shepherd, J.B. (2005): Kick ‘em Jenny & Ile de Caille. In: Lindsay, J.M., Robertson R.E.A., Shepherd, J.B. & Ali, S. (eds) 2005: Volcanic Hazard Atlas of the Lesser Antilles. Seismic Research Unit, The University of the West Indies, Trinidad and Tobago, W.I. pp. 107-126.Lindsay, J.M. (2005): Kick ‘em Jenny & Ile de Caille. In: Lindsay, J.M., Robertson R.E.A., Shepherd, J.B. & Ali, S. (eds) 2005: Volcanic Hazard Atlas of the Lesser Antilles. Seismic Research Unit, The University of the West Indies, Trinidad and Tobago, W.I. pp. 218-238.Mohais R., Bhatt B. (2005): How does permeability affect the heat transfer profile of fluid flow within

a partially permeable channel with an accelerating surface velocity? In:: Bennacer, R., Mohamad A.A., Ganaoui, M.E. & Sicard, J. (eds) 2005: Progress in Computational Heat and Mass Transfer Volume 1, pp. 363-366. Lavoisier.Bhatt, B., R. Mohais. (2005): Temperature and heat transfer profiles of a fluid film squeezed between two permeable isothermal discs rotating within a magnetic field. In: Brebbia, A., Degiorgi, V.G. & Adey, R.A. (eds) 2005: Simulation of Electrochemical Processes, pp. 119-129. WITpress,.Robertson, R.E.A. (2005): St. Kitts. In: Lindsay, J.M., Robertson R.E.A., Shepherd, J.B. & Ali, S. (eds) 2005: Volcanic Hazard Atlas of the Lesser Antilles. Seismic Research Unit, The University of the West Indies, Trinidad and Tobago, W.I. pp. 204-217.Robertson, R.E.A. (2005): St. Vincent. In: Lindsay, J.M., Robertson R.E.A., Shepherd, J.B. & Ali, S. (eds) 2005: Volcanic Hazard Atlas of the Lesser Antilles. Seismic Research Unit, The University of the West Indies, Trinidad and Tobago, W.I. pp. 240-261.Robertson, R.E.A. (2005): Grenada. In: Lindsay, J.M., Robertson R.E.A., Shepherd, J.B. & Ali, S. (eds) 2005: Volcanic Hazard Atlas of the Lesser Antilles. Seismic Research Unit, The University of the West Indies, Trinidad and Tobago, W.I. pp. 49-66.Ph.D. and M.Phil ThesesJoseph, E. P. (2005): Geochemical studies of the geothermal areas of the Lesser Antilles: implications for geothermal monitoring. PhD Upgrade Report, Seismic Research Unit, UWI, St. Augustine.Latchman, J.L. (2006): Tobago and Earthquakes. Ph.D. Thesis submitted to the Department of Civil Engineering, The University of the West Indies for examination in August 2006.TECHNICAL REPORTS

Joseph, E. & Fournier N. (2005): Sampling of geothermal features in Dominica 21st – 24th November 2005. Internal report: Seismic Research Unit, University of the West Indies, St. Augustine.


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2004-2006

PUBLICATIONS

Trinidad.Joseph, E. and Fournier, N. (2006): Sampling of geothermal features in Dominica 23rd – 29th August 2006. Internal report: Seismic Research Unit, University of the West Indies, St. Augustine. Trinidad.Joseph, E. (2006): Sampling of geothermal features in Saint Lucia 22nd – 24th May 2006. Internal report: Seismic Research Unit, University of the West Indies, St. Augustine. Trinidad.Fournier, N., Mohais R. & Robertson, R. (2004): Dominica – 29/11/2004 – 8/12/2004 - GPS network occupation for volcano monitoring - gas and hot springs monitoring. Seismic Research Unit Internal Report, University of the West Indies, St. Augustine. Trinidad. p.Joseph, E. (2005): Sampling of geothermal features in St. Lucia 16th – 19th March 2005. Seismic Research Unit Internal Report, University of the West Indies, St. Augustine. Trinidad. P.Latchman, J. Lynch, L. and Robertson R. (2005): 2004 December 02 East Trinidad Earthquake Sequence. Preliminary Report Prepared for the Ministry of National Security, 24p.Latchman, J. Lynch, L. and Robertson R. (2005): Trinidad Seismicity as it relates to the Mamoral Dam and Reservoir. Report prepared for Ministry of Works and Transport – Drainage Division and Dutch/British ROYAL HASKONING/Nedeco in response to a request for information on “Seismic Data in Central Trinidad”. 26p.Lynch L. L. (2005): Present and Future Data Communications needs of the Seismic Research Unit. Report prepared for the Campus Information Technology Centre, UWI, St. Augustine.Lynch L. L., D. Hamilton, C. MacEwan, G. Field (2005): Earthquake Risk reduction plan for The University School. Prepared for the University School.Seismic Research Unit (2004): Scientific Advisory 2 North-west Dominica Sequence. Report prepared for the Dominica Disaster Office. 6p.Seismic Research Unit (2004): Dominica Scientific Advisory 25th November 2004. Report prepared for the Dominica Disaster Office. 2p.

ABSTRACTS AND POSTERS

Hautmann S., Fournier N., Gottsmann J. and Sparks S. (2006): Mass and density changes associated with the ongoing eruption of Soufrière Hills volcano, Montserrat (W.I.) via a new joint elevation and microgravity network. AGU Fall-meeting, San Francisco, USA. Poster. Cruz V., Fournier N., Sortino F. and Finizola A. (2006): Geochemical survey of hot springs around Ubinas, the most historically active volcano in southern Peru. Cities on Volcanoes 4, Quito, Ecuador. Poster.Joseph E. & Fournier N. (2006): Geochemical investigations at Sulphur Springs, St. Lucia: Monitoring of the public health. Cities on Volcanoes 4, Quito, Ecuador. Poster.Ruch J. & Fournier N. (2006): Volcanic risk assessment in St. Lucia island, Lesser Antilles: quantified evaluation of the affected population and estimation of the economical losses. Cities on Volcanoes 4, Quito, Ecuador. Poster.Erouscilla Joseph, Nicolas Fournier, Jan Lindsay, Richard Robertson and Tobias Fischer (2004): Rationale, challenges and preliminary results of a new geothermal monitoring program in the Eastern Caribbean. Online published abstracts, IAVCEI General Assembly 14 – 19 November 2004: Pucon, Chile. OralFournier N., Cayol V, Froger J.L. and Wobrock W (2004): Atmospheric artefacts in InSAR. IAVCEI General Assembly 14 – 19 November 2004: Pucon, Chile. Poster.Latchman, J.L., Morgan, F.D.O. and Aspinall, W.P. (2005): Temporal Changes in the Cumulative Piecewise Gradient of the Gutenberg-Richter Relationship and the Imminence of Extreme Events. Online published abstracts, Seismological Society of America Annual Meeting, Lake Tahoe, Nevada 27-29th April 2005. Oral.Latchman, J.L., Aspinall, W.P. and Morgan, F.D.O. (2005): Magnitude Production Balance and Recent Failed San Andreas Earthquake Forecases. Online published abstracts, Seismological Society of America Annual Meeting, Lake Tahoe, Nevada 27-29th April 2005. Oral.


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Latchman, J.L. (2005): Magnitude Production Balance From The Piece-wise Gradient Of The Gutenberg-Richter Law And Earthquake Forecasting. APETT’s 18th Technical Conference (ATC-2005) on Engineering Infrastructure, Planning and Development for Disaster Preparedness and Mitigation. OralLindsay, L., S. Ali, R. Robertson and J. Shepherd (2004): Towards a uniform volcanic hazard map style for the Lesser Antilles: The Volcanic Hazard Atlas Project. IAVCEI General Assembly 14 – 19 November 2004: Pucon, Chile. Oral.Richard Robertson, Stacey Edwards and John Shepherd (2004): Use of the Internet in risk and hazard communications. IAVCEI General Assembly 14 – 19 November 2004: Pucon, Chile. Poster.Richard Robertson, John Shepherd, Jan Lindsay, Lloyd Lynch and Joan Latchman (2004): Procedures for early warning of volcanic activity utilised in the English-speaking eastern Caribbean. IAVCEI General Assembly 14 – 19 November 2004: Pucon, Chile. Poster.Rymer H., Fournier N. and Williams-Jones G (2004): Persistent activity and its effect on micro-gravity variations at Poas volcano, Costa Rica. IAVCEI General Assembly 14 – 19 November 2004: Pucon, Chile. Oral.John B. Shepherd and Jan-Marie Lindsay (2004): Seismic signals generated before and during the 2001 eruption of Kick ‘em Jenny volcano in the Lesser Antilles. IAVCEI General Assembly 14 – 19 November 2004: Pucon, Chile. Oral.John B. Shepherd and Doug Wilson (2004): The Structure of Kick ‘em Jenny submarine volcano deduced from high-resolution SeaBeam imagery. IAVCEI General Assembly 14 – 19 November 2004: Pucon, Chile. Poster.Nicolas Fournier and Sue Loughlin (2005): Volcano relaxation following a dome collapse: FEM modelling of July 2003 SHV dome collapse, Montserrat. Soufrière Hills Volcano Ten Years On Scientific Conference, 24-30 July 2005, Vue Pointe Hotel, Montserrat. Poster.Erouscilla Joseph, Nicolas Fournier and Tobias Fischer (2005): Geochemical studies of

hydrothermal areas in the Eastern Caribbean: Implications for monitoring volcanic activity and health hazards. Soufrière Hills Volcano Ten Years On Scientific Conference, 24-30 July 2005, Vue Pointe Hotel, Montserrat. Poster.Joan Latchman, William P. Aspinall, Lloyd L. Lynch and Richard E.A. Robertson (2005): An assessment of earthquake-volcano stress coupling and interactions at the Soufrière Hills Volcano. Soufrière Hills Volcano Ten Years On Scientific Conference, 24-30 July 2005, Vue Pointe Hotel, Montserrat. Oral.Lloyd Lynch, R. Robertson, S. Edwards, J. Latchman (2005): The Soufrière Hills Volcano Eruption: An opportunity to strengthen the Eastern Caribbean Volcano Monitoring Program. Soufrière Hills Volcano Ten Years On Scientific Conference, 24-30 July 2005, Vue Pointe Hotel, Montserrat. Poster.Lynch L. L. (2005): Towards the Implementation of the Inter-Americas Seas Tsunami Monitoring Network and Warning System. UNESCO-IOC International Conference for the Development of Tsunami & Coastal Hazards Warning System, June 1-3, 2005, Mexico City, Mexico. OralJournalismJoan Latchman (2005): The Eastern Caribbean in a World of Earthquakes. UWI Today - Centre-fold article, 20th February 2005.


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2004-2006

PROJECTED ACTIVITIES

Distinguished Speaker Series

In continuation of a thrust towards raising the profile of the Unit and generally informing the

public of the Unit’s field of expertise, we will again propose another distinguished lecture for the UWI Open Lecture Series. We hope to bring a leading expert in the field of Quantitative Risk Assessement to share with use and the wider community the use of expert elicitation .

Modifications to building

To provide for additional storage and also to rationalise existing use of the limited space at

our headquarters on Gordon street, the Unit will undertake some modifications to the larger of the two building currently used as offices on Gordon Street, St. Augustine. This is being handled by the Works Department we intend for the works to be completed by July 2007.

Improve security at the SRU

To accommodate on-site security, renovations to the Unit’s headquarters at Gordon Street

were completed during the latter quarter of 2006. Arrangements have been made for a guard booth to be constructed during the first quarter of 2007. It is hoped that a request made since 2003 to the St. Augustine main campus administration for on-site security personnel to cover the weekends and public holidays, as well as during the period 4:30 pm to 8:30 am on the regular weekdays, will be acted upon once these building works have been completed. Although not manned on a 24-hour basis the Unit’s work requires staff members (including female) to work alone at the Unit.

Implementation of seismic network upgrade

A major upgrade of the Unit’s seismic network will be undertaken during 2007. This is

a major part of a USAID and Government of Trinidad and Tobago funded project designed to improve the Unit’s capacity to detect and provide early identification of potentially tsunamigenic earthquakes..

Regional Seismic Network Operators Meeting

A second meeting of Regional Seismic Network Operators will be held in the latter half of

2007. This is the second major component of a USAID funded project that will facilitate the development of information sharing protocols between seismological agencies in the Caribbean and Adjacent Areas and significantly advance the development of a Tsunami and Coastal Hazards Warning System for the Caribbean and Adjacent Areas.Caribbean Training Course in Seismology and Tsunami Warnings

The Unit will host a region-wide Caribbean training course in Seismology and Tsunami

Warnings in late April to early May 2007. The training course will provide training to approximately 20 scientists from across the region and will be done in collaboration with the United States Geological Survey, the International Tsunami Information Centre and the Puerto Rico Seismic Network. The 5-day course will develop an understanding of the science behind tsunami warnings and the operational best-practices of warning centres. The invited participants will be Tsunami Focal Points and Contact Points (provided for the IOC Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the Caribbean (IGC/CARIBE)) and seismic station operators from around the region. Funding has been requested from the US Agency for International Development.Strategic Plan

The Unit has contract a professional to assist with the finalisation of our Strategic Plan. We

hope that this will be completed by June 2007 for distribution to stakeholders before the end of the academic year.IDRC – ICT project

A collaborative project between the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Response Agency

(CDERA), and the University of the West Indies (Seismic Research Unit has been submitted to the International Development Research Centre


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2004-2006

of Canada. Approval is expected during the first quarter of 2007. The project seeks to enhance the effectiveness of Information and Communication Technology Applications and Tools for Disaster Management in the Caribbean Region. It will provide for a 2-year MPhil Research Project that will develop, test, demonstrate and validate the use of community knowledge and support in the collection of post event information for earthquakes in the Eastern Caribbean.Website Upgrade

Progress on the upgrading of the Unit’s website continued during the reporting year. The

refurbished site will be launched in 2007 and will feature expanded information, easier navigation, and attractive graphics including video footage.Project proposals

Since our recurrent budget only allows for funding of the monitoring program the Unit

will continue its ongoing effort to develop project proposals that seek to source external funding for a variety of projects. The projects for which new proposals will be drafted and for which funding will be sought are summarised below.

SRU New Building: The existing building occupied by the Unit has been in existence for 50 years and have long outlived the current operational demands of the Unit; preliminary designs and costing for a new building will be undertaken during the year and will provide input to a full proposal for a new building to house the existing and future demands of the Unit.Earth Sciences Learning Resources Centre - This project caters for the creation of a resource centre at the Seismic Research Unit; this may be part of the new building project but a separate proposal will be done for it to be funded as a separate project.Introduction to Volcanology Course: A proposal has been drafted and submitted to Campus Committee for the introduction of a graduate course on Volcanology to be offered at St. Augustine Campus from the 2007-2008 academic year.

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Upgrade of Seismic Hazard Maps in the Caribbean: A proposal will be submitted under the aegis of CERESIS to the IDB for a comprehensive update of hazard maps in the Caribbean and South America; this will be done in collaboration with the USGS.

Memorandum of Understanding

The Unit intends to pursue the development of Memorandum of Understanding with

all agencies with which collaboration is being developed or is currently undertaken. At present the Unit routinely exchange data and collaborate with the following organisations:

Montserrat Volcano ObservatorySoufrière Monitoring UnitPuerto Rico Seismic NetworkObservatoire Volcanologique de La GuadeloupeObservatoire de la Montagne PeleeFundacion Venezolana de Investigaciones Sismologicas (FUNVISIS)Servicio Sismológico Nacional de CubaCaribbean Disaster Emergency Response AgencyCaribbean Community (CARICOM) Climate Change Centre.

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BIENNIAL REPORT

2004-2006

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