the “state” of the state economy dr. james ramsey president, university of louisville november...
TRANSCRIPT
The “State” of the State EconomyDr. James Ramsey
President, University of Louisville
NOVEMBER 7, 2013
L O U I S V I L L E . E D U2
Thank you for this opportunity
We value our partnerships with the Owensboro community
L O U I S V I L L E . E D U3
I have a job ...But my passion ...Today
L O U I S V I L L E . E D U4
I don’t get to teach economics anymore, but I did find my notes from Econ 202
My notes from Econ 202
L O U I S V I L L E . E D U5
In “Macro” we talk about exciting topics:
GDPFull employmentInflationAll that stuff … The Business Cycle
L O U I S V I L L E . E D U6
While I was trained as an econometrician
Today let me make some casual observations on:
• National economy• Kentucky economy• State budget• Higher education
L O U I S V I L L E . E D U7
(With apologies to a Dallas Federal Reserve Economist who I heard 14 years ago)
• The Business Cycle Still Exists!
Observation I
L O U I S V I L L E . E D U8
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-10
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2.5
The Last Decade or so
The “recession!”
Quarterly Change in GDP (measure of macro economic activity)
L O U I S V I L L E . E D U9
We know that nationally times have been unprecedented…11 post WWII recessions
*Lowest level during the current recession. The next two quarters (2009: III and IV) have been positive.
- http://
books.google.com/books?id=g-L0iLH5u34C&pg=PA408&lpg=PA408&dq=Real+GDP+November+1948&source=bl&ots=1eT_Am6PKI&sig=hkYMPbaa6BWiE92o-tg8Z8DPBI4&hl=en&sa=X&ei=2gEJUrDyE-Hg2AX384DYDQ&ved=0CDcQ6AEwAQ#v=onepage&q=Real%20GDP%20November%201948&f=false
Peak Decline in real GDP
Dec-07 (IV) -5.1%*
Mar-01 (I) -0.5%
Jul-90 (III) -1.3%
Jul-81 (III) -2.9%
Jan-80 (I) -2.2%
Nov-73 (IV) -3.1%
Dec-69 (IV) -0.6%
Apr-60 (II) -1.6%
Aug-57 (III) -1.2%
Jul-53 (II) -2.7%
Nov-48 (IV) -1.7%
L O U I S V I L L E . E D U10
Just when we thought recovery was taking hold
Observation II
2011 “Black Swans”• Tsunamis/Nuclear Meltdown
Japan• Civic unrest
Tunisia/Egypt/Libya/Yemen/etc.• Europe Economic Meltdown
Greece/Spain/etc.
2012• “Sandy”• Sequestration
2013• And now shutdown
So, we are recovering – but we are not back! Yet.
L O U I S V I L L E . E D U11
The real problem!
Observation III
L O U I S V I L L E . E D U12
Slow recovery continued – September 2013
Dec-07
Feb-08
Apr-08
Jun-08
Aug-08
Oct-08
Dec-08
Feb-09
Apr-09
Jun-09
Aug-09
Oct-09
Dec-09
Feb-10
Apr-10
Jun-10
Aug-10
Oct-10
Dec-10
Feb-11
Apr-11
Jun-11
Aug-11
Oct-11
Dec-11
Feb-12
Apr-12
Jun-12
Aug-12
Oct-12
Dec-12
Feb-13
Apr-13
Jun-13
Aug-13
Oct-13
Dec-13
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
-830
148
Net monthly change in nonfarm payrolls, in thousands
L O U I S V I L L E . E D U
13
National Employment
136,290,000
US jobsDecember 2007
137,982,000
Jobs lost in the recession
7.479 million
Jobs gained in the
recovery
5.787 million
US jobsSeptember 2013
Still 1.69m fewer people working today
http://beta.bls.gov/dataViewer/view/timeseries/CES0000000001http://www.deptofnumbers.com/employment/us/
L O U I S V I L L E . E D U14
Observation IV
We live in a:• New
Economy/Knowledge Based Economy(Human Capital most important input into production process)
• Global Economy(What happens…)
L O U I S V I L L E . E D U15
The New Economy
Rank Company Name Market Cap
($B)
1Exxon Mobil 422.27
2Apple 398.35
3Google 292.92
4Berkshire Hathaway 288.99
5Microsoft 261.42
6Johnson & Johnson 260.02
7Wal-Mart 258.53
8General Electric 255.3
9Chevron 247.72
10Wells Fargo 234.94
L O U I S V I L L E . E D U16
Jobs of Today …Jobs of Tomorrow …
Education Is …
L O U I S V I L L E . E D U17
Less than H.S. Diploma
H.S. graduate, no college
Some collegeor Associates
BA or HigherU.S. National Unemploymen
t
%
%
%
%
%
September 2013
17
Sep-130.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
7.2
10.3
7.6
6
3.7
Observation VEducation is Important!
http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea05.htm
L O U I S V I L L E . E D U18
OK, so I am still awake (barely)
But…
What’s The Point Of All This
L O U I S V I L L E . E D U19
Oh – so let’s talk about KYKentucky’s Economy is Dependent
on National Economy
L O U I S V I L L E . E D U20
Kentucky’s Economy “A Quick History”
L O U I S V I L L E . E D U21
Beginning in 2000Kentuckians working
August 2013
1,745.0
1,765.0
1,785.0
1,805.0
1,825.0
1,845.0
1,865.0
1,885.0
1,846.9
1,870.6
1,814.4
1,750.6
L O U I S V I L L E . E D U22
Just a little comparison
September 2013
U.S. KY
Jobs Lost 7,500,000 120,000
Jobs Regained 5,787,000 96,300
% of Jobs Regained 77% 80%
L O U I S V I L L E . E D U23
But there is more to itKentucky Manufacturing Employment
Why Important? WAGES!
August 2013
Jan-00
Jul-00
Jan-01
Jul-01
Jan-02
Jul-02
Jan-03
Jul-03
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
200.0
220.0
240.0
260.0
280.0
300.0
320.0
225.2
L O U I S V I L L E . E D U24
So, in Kentucky things are better but we are not back yet from the depths
of recession
L O U I S V I L L E . E D U25
“I am trying to hang with you but work with
me …What’s all this
mean?”
L O U I S V I L L E . E D U26
The Kentucky “General Fund”
Kentucky State General Fund
$9.3B 100%
Individual Income Tax $3.7B 40%
State Sales Tax $3.1B 32%
Combined $6.7B 72%
Income Tax/Sales Tax highly correlated with economic activity —i.e. Employment! People working!
State Funded?OR
State assisted?FY 13
L O U I S V I L L E . E D U27
Year ($000,000) % Change2005 7,645 9.56%2006 8,376 9.56%2007 8,573 2.35%2008 8,664 1.06%2009 8,426 -2.75%2010 8,225 -2.39%2011 8,759 6.49%2012 9,026 3.05%2013 9,348 3.44%2014 9,578 2.4%*
* Forecasted
Recessionaryyears
Modestrecovery
KY General Fund
http://www.osbd.ky.gov/NR/rdonlyres/1ADF4A09-F159-40BE-9DD0-2156ACCD0276/0/1214BOCBudInBrief.pdf
Legislative (budget) Session
L O U I S V I L L E . E D U28
State Revenue Growth
Public Pensions Medicaid Debt Service Corrections/Adult Prisons
K-12 Base Higher Ed-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
10.0%
63.5%
41.9%
32.8%
15.3%
-1.0%
-14.0%
http://www.ksba.org/protected/PrintArticle.aspx?iid=50GAYB&dasi=3UBI
So, While Modest Economic Recovery, State Budget (2008-14) Continues To Be Ugly Because of Expenditure Side of Budget
L O U I S V I L L E . E D U29
Um – Not Good, is it
Well – no one knows, but my guess is• “OK” recovery will continue in Kentucky• KY will continue to add jobs, but … probably late
2014 before we return to job level of late 2007
• Jobs of the future continue to be different than jobs of the past
• “Pockets” of problems — e.g. Eastern KY
But what does the future hold for Higher Education in 2014 Biennial Budget Session
L O U I S V I L L E . E D U30
Continue to face difficult state and fiscal challenges that impact our future
o Slow State General Fund revenue growth (estimate 2013-14 is 2.5%, FY14-15: 2.4%, FY15-16: 2.3%)
o State’s structural budget imbalance still exists (more funding needed for state pensions)
And, We Will:
http://www.kypolicy.us/content/revenue-forecast-next-budget-remains-weak
L O U I S V I L L E . E D U31
Other Expenditure areas of budget will be higher priority than higher education – because questions of:
o Is Higher Education accountable?o Is Higher Education effective?o Higher Education hasn’t sold itselfo Higher Education has alternative revenue
sources
And:
L O U I S V I L L E . E D U32
• Limited / if any funding for higher education• Funding, if available, tied to “performance”• Funds, if available, tied to specific initiatives; i.e.
“college readiness”• Continued pressure on modest tuition increases
What this means
Tough Fiscal Outlook to Continue
2014 - 2016
L O U I S V I L L E . E D U33
So!
L O U I S V I L L E . E D U34
Thank you
Questions?