the role of uncertainty in adaptive water...

Møde xx – CPH 2017Hydrological Modelling for Assessing Climate Change Impacts at Different Scales - www.hyacints.dk 1

HYACINTS Seminar, GEUS, 10 September 2009

The role of uncertainty in adaptive The role of uncertainty in adaptive water water managememanagementnt

Hans Jørgen HenriksenGeological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS)


OutlineOutlineIntroduction of uncertainties in relation to climate adaptation and adaptive water management (AWM)• Definitions of adaptive water management• Strategies for dealing with uncertainties in AWM

Example: Upper Guadiana Basin test case of piloting AWM (NeWater)• Introduction to the water conflict• Test of Bayesian belief networks with engagement of stakeholders for

identifying adaptation measures and their uncertainties • Evaluation of stakeholder perceptions of participatory process and

Bayesian belief networks as the tool

Discussion and conclusion

More information


Schematic representation of water Schematic representation of water system and uncertainties in AWMsystem and uncertainties in AWM

Incomplete knowledge: - hydrological model structure- geological interpretations- climate scenarios- parameter valuesUnknowable knowledge:- inherent indeterminacy of future

human society and climate system- humans (social knowledge) are not

predictable in any deterministic sense

Strategies for dealing with uncertainty(adaptation planning):- accept not knowing- work on improving knowledge- learning to deal with differences

Sources: Mysiak et al. (2009); Brugnach et al. (2009); Van der Keur et al. (2008)


Adaptation requires political will, flexible Adaptation requires political will, flexible planning and inclusive decision process planning and inclusive decision process and toolsand tools

Adaptive management (AWM)can be defined as a systematic process for improving management policies and practices by learning from the outcomes of implemented management strategies (NeWater)

Source: Mysiak et al. 2009Source: Brugnach et al. (2009)


Guadiana : Exploring the uncertainties Guadiana : Exploring the uncertainties that are part of adaptation strategiesthat are part of adaptation strategies

Two rounds of participation:

Participatory groundwater modelling for scenario analysis and vulnerability analysis(System modelling and scenario development)

Bayesian belief networks with engagement of stakeholders for analysing different adaptation options / strategies(Special plan for Upper Guadiana Basin)

Sources: Martinez-Santos et al. (2010); Zorrilla et al. (forthcoming)


Upper Guadiana basin caseUpper Guadiana basin case

General settingSurface: 16,000 km2

Population: 500,000

HydrologySemiarid climateRainfall: 400 mm/yrETP: 1200 mm/yrStrong surface/groundwater

interactionRAMSAR wetlandsUNESCO Biosphere Reserve

Water useIrrigation based development

Irrigation 95% water useIrrigation 95% groundwater based Source: Martinez-Santos (2007)


Scenario development (2015/2027 Horizon)Scenario development (2015/2027 Horizon)

Key drivers

EU Common Agricultural Policy

International food trade agreements

Upper Guadiana Water Plan

Climate change

Tajo-Segura water transfer

(...)Source: Martinez-Santos (2007)


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IMPERVIOUS

AQUIFER

IMPERVIOUS

Source: Martinez-Santos (2007)


Objectives of using Bayesian networks Objectives of using Bayesian networks for piloting AWM and adaptationfor piloting AWM and adaptation

1. To develop a participatory decision support system

2. To improve the knowledge of key water users and provide a platform for dialogue among stakeholders

3. To evaluate the ability of Bayesian networks to effectively engage stakeholders in the decision making process

Sources: Zorrilla et al. (forthcoming); Henriksen and Barlebo (2008)


UPP

ER G

UA

DIA

NA

KEY

STA

KEH

OLD

ERS

Spain’s Central Government

Regional / Local Governments

Water User Associations

Environmental Conservation

Groups

Research Institutions

1. General Water Directorate (Ministry of the Environment)2. Guadiana River Basin Authority3. Hidroguadiana

Farmer Unions

4. Regional Delegation for the Environment (REG)5. Reg. Directorate for Agricultural Production (REG)6. Regional Water Board (REG)7. Daimiel Water Center (LOC)

8. Groundwater User Association of Spain (AEUAS)9. Federation of Groundwater Users (Aquifer 23)10. Association of Private Groundwater Users (Aquifer 24)

11. WWF/Adena Spain12. SEO/Birdlife13. Ecologistas en Acción (“Ecologists in Action”)14. Ojos del Guadiana Vivos (“Guadiana Springs Alive”)

15. ASAJA16. COAG

17. Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Spain (NWP)18. Instituto de Soldadure e Qualidade, Portugal (NWP)19. Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Spain (NWP)20. Geological Survey of Spain

Independent 21. New Water Culture Foundation22. International Institute of Environmental Law23. Ariño & Associates Lawyers24. One individual farmer


Final Bayesian network for UGBFinal Bayesian network for UGB

Sources: Zorrilla et al. (forthcoming); Zorrilla (2009)


Results of application of Bayesian Results of application of Bayesian networks in Guadiananetworks in Guadiana

Purchase of irrigation rights and imposition of water volume restrictions by the RBA to improve compliance of farmers was analysed

Analysis showed a relatively high offer price for irrigation rights

Probability to achieve recovery by the 2027 EU WFD deadline remain low (25-40 %).

The cost of aquifer recovery has been estimated in economic and social terms

Source: Zorrilla et al. (forthcomming)


Results of testing Bayesian networks Results of testing Bayesian networks based on stakeholder perceptionsbased on stakeholder perceptions

Bayesian networks are useful tool for identifying the level of knowledge or uncertainty (assessment of the quality of knowledgein a meaningful way)

Probability distributions allowed the level of uncertainty of any particular result to be explicitly represented

Bayesian networks (and AWM) require specific skills from the users and time (training is important)

Source:Zorrilla et al. (forthcoming)


Discussion Adaptation level Discussion Adaptation level --Incremental improvement, reframing Incremental improvement, reframing and/or transforming?and/or transforming?

Incremental improvement Reducing groundwater abstractions =>Improving irrigation efficiency

ReframingRe-opening the problem framing and broaden the focus to land use and less water consumptive crops =>Improving water quantity, quality andaquatic habitat conditions

Transforming Water users and farmers startto see things differently => more awareness about own and others values,beliefs and perceptions and thusa broadening of the context to include economic, social and institutional aspects

Sources: Hargrove 2000 Masterful coaching


ConclusionConclusionManagement of water resources is hampered by a variety of uncertainties, such as unpredictability, incomplete knowledgeand ambiguities, affecting problem identification and adaptation strategies

Communication between the different parties is an option to improve how uncertainties due to multiple knowledge perspectives(ambiguity) are dealt with

Adaptive water management deals with uncertainty by creating –through learning and adaptation – the capacity to respond flexibly and effectively to changing and unknown conditions

Bayesian belief networks have been proven to be an efficient tool for incorporating stakeholder beliefs, values and perceptionsinto decision making, and for analyzing impacts and uncertainties related to adaptation possible strategies


More information: More information: www.newater.infowww.newater.info

Synthesis product no. 9Mysiak, J., Pahl-Wostl, C.,Sullivan, C., Bromley, J. andHenriksen, H.J. (2009) :The adaptive water resourceManagement handbook

Synthesis product no. 2:Brugnach, M., van der Keur, P.,Henriksen, H.J. and Mysiak, J. (2009) Uncertainty in adaptive management. Concepts and guidelines: www.newater.info

Available September 2009:Earthscan publisher

Scientific journal papers:• Brugnach, M., van der Keur, P., DeWulf, A. and Henriksen, H.J. (in prep.) Uncertainties in framing.• Henriksen, HJ and Barlebo, HC (2008) Reflection on the use of Bayesian belief networks for adaptive management. Journal of Environmental Management 88 1025-1036.• Henriksen, H.J., Zorrilla, P., de la Hera, A., Lopez-Gunn, E. and Dumas, C. (in prep) Learning cycles for decision making under uncertainty: The case of adaptive management. • Martinez-Santos, P., Henriksen, H.J., Zorilla, P. et. al (2010): Comparative reflections on the use of participatory modelling tools in conflictive water management settings: the Mancha Occidental aquifer, Spain. Environmental Modelling and Software. doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2008.11.011• Martinez-Santos, P. (2007) Hacia la gestiónadaptable del acuíferode la Mancha Occidental. Tesis Doctoral. Universidad COmplutensede Madrid. pp: 375.• van der Keur, P., Henriksen, H.J., Refsgaard, J.C. Brugnach, M., Pahl-Wostl, C., Dewulf, A. and Buiteveld, H. (2008) Identification of major sources of uncertainty in current IWRM practice. Illustrated for the Rhine case. Water Resources Management. 22 1677-1708• Van der Keur, P., Brugnach, M., DeWulf, A., Refsgaard, J.C., Zorilla, P., Poolman, M., Henriksen, H.J., Warmink, J.J. , Isendahl, N, Raadgever, G.T., Lamers, M., Mysiak, J. (submitted) Identifying uncertainty guidance for supporting policy making in water management illustrated for Upper Guadiana and Rhine basins. WARM• Zorrilla, P. (2009) Análisis de las gestión del agua en el acuíferode la Mancha Occidental: construcción de una red bayesianamediante procesos de participacíon pública. Tesis Doctoral. Universidad Autónoma de Madrid. April de 2009.• Zorrilla, P., Carmona, G., de la Hera, A., Varela-Ortega, C., Martinez-Santos, P., Bromley, J. and Henriksen, H.J. (forthcomming) Evaluation of Bayesian networks as a tool for participatory water resources management: Application to the Upper Guadiana Basin in Spain. Ecology & Society

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