context adaptive agility managing complexity and uncertainty todd little

Context Adaptive AgilityContext Adaptive Agility Managing Complexity and UncertaintyManaging Complexity and Uncertainty

Todd Little

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Are you in the right place?Are you in the right place?G

eek

Hu

mor

2x2 Matrices

Hate

En

joy

Enjoy

Hate

Hopefully the Matrices are funny enough

Enjoy the show!

OK. You don’t have to laugh

Sorry, just content

It Depends

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The Agile Project Leadership Network Declaration The Agile Project Leadership Network Declaration of Interdependence (www.apln.org)of Interdependence (www.apln.org)

We increase return on investment by making continuous flow of value our focus.

We deliver reliable results by engaging customers in frequent interactions and shared ownership.

We expect uncertainty and manage for it through iterations, anticipation and adaptation.

We unleash creativity and innovation by recognizing that individuals are the ultimate source of value, and creating an environment where they can make a difference.

We boost performance through group accountability for results and shared responsibility for team effectiveness.

We improve effectiveness and reliability through situationally specific strategies, processes and practices.

David Anderson, Sanjiv Augustine, Christopher Avery, Alistair Cockburn, Mike Cohn, Doug DeCarlo, Donna Fitzgerald, Jim Highsmith, Ole Jepsen, Lowell Lindstrom, Todd Little, Kent McDonald, Pollyanna Pixton, Preston Smith and Robert Wysocki

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Declaration of Independence from Bureaucratic Declaration of Independence from Bureaucratic Project ManagementProject Management

When in the Course of project events it becomes necessary for Project Teams to dissolve the political bureaucracies which have burdened them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all projects are not created equal, that they are endowed by their creation with uncertain and complex characteristics. That project teams are most effective when they value Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.

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Penal Management InstitutePenal Management Institute

Now that I am a Penal Management

Professional I can show them how to improve

these Convicts’ Maturity Model

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Hurricane RitaHurricane Rita

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Landmark sells shrink wrap software for Oil and Landmark sells shrink wrap software for Oil and Gas Exploration and ProductionGas Exploration and Production

Users are Geoscientists and Engineers

Subsidiary of Halliburton Energy Services

Integrated suite of ~60 Products

~50 Million lines of code

Some products 20+ years old

80+% of project team stays on same product

Common Model Representation

Well data

Production data

Seismic data

Velocity data

Reservoir /Fluid data

Structural /Stratigraphic data

Common Model Representation

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We have the challenge of integrating software We have the challenge of integrating software developed in Houston, Austin, Denver and Calgarydeveloped in Houston, Austin, Denver and Calgary

Plus Islamabad

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Our team was tasked with understanding and Our team was tasked with understanding and improving our software development processimproving our software development process

Maximize our Value Delivery

Scaling to project conditions

Manage Uncertainty and Complexity

Organizational commonality without being overly prescriptiveCore processes

Adaptive processes

What is “barely sufficient?”

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We were influenced by a number of Agile prophetsWe were influenced by a number of Agile prophets

HighsmithAdaptive Software Development

CockburnCrystal Methods

Boehm and TurnerBalancing Agility and Discipline

Microsoft Solutions Framework (MSF)

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Manifesto for Agile Software DevelopmentManifesto for Agile Software Development

We are uncovering better ways of developing software by doing it and helping others do it. Through this work we have come to value:

Individuals and interactions over processes and tools Working software over comprehensive documentation Customer collaboration over contract negotiation Responding to change over following a plan

That is, while there is value in the items on the right, we value the items on the left more.

Kent Beck, Mike Beedle, Arie van Bennekum, Alistair Cockburn, Ward Cunningham, Martin Fowler, James Grenning, Jim Highsmith, Andrew Hunt, Ron Jeffries, Jon Kern, Brian Marick, Robert C. Martin, Steve Mellor, Ken Schwaber, Jeff Sutherland, Dave Thomas

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We studied our project portfolio and identified We studied our project portfolio and identified several project and team attributesseveral project and team attributes

Project ComplexityTeam sizeMission criticality Team locationTeam capacityDomain knowledge gapsDependencies

UncertaintyMarket UncertaintyTechnical UncertaintyProject DurationDependents

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We scored the Complexity Attributes on a scale We scored the Complexity Attributes on a scale from 1 to 10from 1 to 10

Attribute 1 10

Team Size 1 100

Mission Critical SpeculativeSafety Critical with

significant exposure

Team Location Same Room Multi-site, World Wide

Team CapacityEstablished Team of

expertsNew team of mostly

novices

Domain knowledge gapsDevelopers know the

domain as well as expert users

Developers have no idea about the domain

Dependencies No dependenciesTight Integration with

several projects

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And we scored the Uncertainty AttributesAnd we scored the Uncertainty Attributes

Attribute 1 10

Market UncertaintyKnown deliverable, possibly

defined contractual obligationNew market that is

unknown and untested

Technical UncertaintyEnhancements to existing

architecture

New technology, new architecture. May be

some "R"

Project Duration 1-4 week 24 months

Dependents/ Scope Flexibility

Well defined contractual obligations or Infrastructure

Independent

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0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0

Project Complexity

Un

ce

rtai

nty

We cross plotted the results and divided the chart We cross plotted the results and divided the chart into four quadrantsinto four quadrants

ixComplexity 10log2 iytyUncertain 10log

2

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This looked a lot like the Boston MatrixThis looked a lot like the Boston Matrix

Boston Matrix

Market Share

Ma

rke

t G

row

th

Low

High

Dogs

Cash Cows

StarsQuestion Marks

Low High

???

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So we named it the Houston Matrix and gave animal So we named it the Houston Matrix and gave animal names to the quadrantsnames to the quadrants

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0

Project Complexity

Un

cert

ain

ty

Simple, young projects. Need agilityTight Teams

Skunks

Dogs

Complex, mature marketNeed defined interfaces

Cows

Bulls

Agility to handle uncertaintyProcess definition to cope with complexity

laissez faire

Colts

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We looked at an overall process flow and how it We looked at an overall process flow and how it would be adaptable.would be adaptable.

Adaptive ActivitiesInputs

Pre-conditions

Project Sanction

RTM

Outputs

Post-conditions

•Released Software

CORE Activities

Iterations

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We Identified a set of Core Processes for all We Identified a set of Core Processes for all projects to useprojects to use

Aggregate Product Plan

A/B/C List

Quality Agreement

Continuous Integration

Expert User Involvement

Project Dashboard

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The Aggregate Product Plan sets the high level The Aggregate Product Plan sets the high level vision and expectationsvision and expectations

Project: OpenWells Davenport Project Code: 010265

Product: OpenWellsTarget Date: 3/30/2004

Version: 2003.11.0.0 Release Date: 3/31/2004

Product Manager: Marcus Ridgway SDD: David Field

Vision:Version 2.0 of the new Well Operations reporting and data analysis application. Will bring powerful new query, graphing and reporting capabilities. Comprehensive D&WS input data and output reports will be supported including integration to Production suite.

Platforms:Windows 2000 /Oracle 8.1.7Windows XP / Oracle 9i Windows 2000 & XP /MSDE

Features:18 additional reportsAddtnl apps - Data Anlyzr, NG Profile, AutoprintExtended Rig Equipment supportKnowledge Management - Technical limit drilling,lessons learned, non-productive time, and equipment failuresApplication enhancements (spreadsheet support andtailored well services tab and others)

Strategic Fit:IntegrationWorkflow ( Prototype, plan, actual)Top quartile technology

Target Markets:Existing DIMS customersUS IndependentsNOCsGovernment and regulatory organizationsCompanies requiring integrated offering w/decent wellbore schematic requirementsService companies

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The A/B/C List sets proper expectationsThe A/B/C List sets proper expectations

A MUST be completed in order to ship the product.

B SHOULD be completed in order to ship the product.

C MAY be completed prior to shipping the product if time allows.

Only “A” features may be committed to customers.

“A” features must fit in a p90 confidence schedule. No more than 50% of the planned effort can be allocated to “A” items

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A

A/B/C ListA/B/C List

B

C

A

B

CD

50

%

10

0%

Backlog Plan Typical Delivery

50

%2

5%

25

%

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A/B/C ListA/B/C List

P10 P50 P901 A Honor common login Recognize and support the EDM common login information 5 10 20 M

2 A Certify against old data model

Formally test the new ARIES product against the old ARIES database. If successful, this will ease the transition by giving customers flexibility and enabling them to easily evaluate acquisition databases 10 20 40 L

3 B User group requestsImprove decline calculations to a reserve limit when using hyp/exp switchover 15 30 60 L

4 B Fill RMS functionality gapsProvide multi-level approval and freeze process. Allowing multiple sets of reserve values. 30 60 120 XL

5 C Fill RMS functionality gapsCurrent reconciliation is by EIA or SEC change codes. Need ability for more detail and or user defined arrangements. 35 70 140 XL

6 C User group requestsSTART date with option for a variable DELAY/SHIFT period (number of months) including use with ENDDATE 5 10 20 M

7 C User group requestsExpand range in which we solve for an unknown decline rate in a hyperbolic equation 5 10 20 M

Oxbridge - P&E Systems Requirements

ARIESEstimates

# Rank Name Notes/Purpose/Description T-Shirt

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We use a Quality Agreement similar to ThomsettWe use a Quality Agreement similar to Thomsett

Attribute

“A”

Very Important

“B”

Important

“C”Not Very Important

Completeness of Functionality X

Completeness of Testing X

Reliability X

Performance X

Installation X

Usability X

Integration X

On Line Help X

Training X

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Simple, Certain projects are like DogsSimple, Certain projects are like Dogs

They can be trained to be well behaved.

Just the Core practices

Laissez Faire…Similar to Crystal Clear

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Simple, Uncertain projects are like ColtsSimple, Uncertain projects are like Colts

Young projects with lots of unfettered energy.

Landmark has had success with XP in this quadrant

Short iterations

Daily stand-up meetings

Automated unit tests

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Complex, Certain projects are like CowsComplex, Certain projects are like Cows

Often are corporate “Cash Cows”More rigorous requirements management; i.e.

use a requirements tool.Requires the generation of useful documentation

for interface definitionsProjects broken up into subprojects and

coordinated by a team of leaders or a Scrum of Scrums.

Project plans with dependency and critical path identification

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Complex, Uncertain projects are like Complex, Uncertain projects are like BullsBulls

Large projects, hard to control.Need agility to steer through the uncertainty, and

some rigor to manage the complexity.A careful union of the Colt and the CowRequires the best Project ManagersWarning signs

Project Managers sometimes act as clowns to provide diversion.

High BS factorAppears that they just want to have their way with the

Cows.

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Don’t throw novice project managers Don’t throw novice project managers at a bull projectat a bull project

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Brooks’ law in action: throw a Brooks’ law in action: throw a developer at a late bull projectdeveloper at a late bull project

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Complexity is like Amplitude and Uncertainty is like Complexity is like Amplitude and Uncertainty is like FrequencyFrequency

Bull

Cow

Colt

Dog

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Product Innovation FlowProduct Innovation Flow

Adaptive Activities Pro

ject

Sanct

ion

RTM

CORE Activities

Idea Filter

Hot Items

ABacklog Burnup

Sales

Services

Customer Support

ProductBacklog

A Items

IterationBacklog

Flexible ScopeBacklog

New

ly D

isco

vere

d

It

em

s

Most Items for consideration in next release

B & CReleaseBacklog

B/C/D

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Nickoliasen Model for Idea FilterNickoliasen Model for Idea Filter(Executive Summit ADC 2004)(Executive Summit ADC 2004)

Mar

ket

Dif

fere

nti

atin

g

High

Low

Mission CriticalLow High

PartnerOr convert

To Mission Critical

Focus andAllocateResources

Who Cares?AchieveParity

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Products Tend to follow a Lifecycle pathProducts Tend to follow a Lifecycle path

Product Lifecycle

Complexity

Un

cert

ain

ty

Low

High

Dogs

Cows

Low High

Bulls

Skunks

Colts

AB

C

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An Example Lifecycle pathAn Example Lifecycle path

Product Lifecycle

Complexity

Un

ce

rta

inty

Low

High

Low High

2003

2004

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Portfolio Management and Dealing with DarwinPortfolio Management and Dealing with DarwinM

arke

tD

iffe

ren

tiat

ing

High

Low


Invent Deploy

Offload Manage

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arke

tD

iffe

ren

tiat

ing

High

Low


Create Change

Embrace Change

Eliminate Change

Control Change

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arke

tD

iffe

ren

tiat

ing

High

Low


Ad Hoc Agile

Outsource Structured

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Project Complexity and Uncertainty influence how Project Complexity and Uncertainty influence how to scale our agile processto scale our agile process

One size doesn’t fit all

The assessment tool is a guide

Landmark’s portfolio balance10% Bulls

10% Cows

20% Colts

60% Dogs

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Don’t mistreat your cowsDon’t mistreat your cows

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Don’t over stereotype:Don’t over stereotype:e.g. Not all dogs are the samee.g. Not all dogs are the same

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Agile SteeringAgile Steering

Each iteration provides new information and takes us closer to the product vision. Uncertainty remains, and the shape of the cone is proportional.

context adaptive agility managing complexity and uncertainty todd little

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