the public and private sectors in the sustainable development of the ukrainian grain sector
DESCRIPTION
THE PUBLIC AND PRIVATE SECTORS IN THE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF THE UKRAINIAN GRAIN SECTOR. Sergey Feofilov UkrAgroConsult Round Table, Black Sea Grain Conference - 2009 Kiev. Trends in the total agricultural output (1990 = 100%), %. Ukraine: Animal and poultry inventories. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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THE PUBLIC AND PRIVATE SECTORS IN THE
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF THE UKRAINIAN GRAIN
SECTOR
Sergey Feofilov
UkrAgroConsult
Round Table, Black Sea Grain Conference - 2009
Kiev
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Trends in the total agricultural output (1990 =
100%), %
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Agricultural enterprises All types farms Private sector
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Ukraine: Animal and poultry inventories
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
1990 1995 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Th. h
eads
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Ml.
head
s
Cattle Pigs Poultry
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Ukraine: Rural population, Th persons, by January 1
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Total population 48240.9 47823.1 47442.1 47100.5 46749.2 46465.7
Rural population, including: 15950.2 15750.4 15551.2 15346.7 15127.1 14943.9
Men 7412.7 7329.7 7245.4 7154.1 7055 6973.9
Women 8537.5 8420.7 8305.8 8192.6 8072.1 7970
Able-bodied rural population, including: 8176.9 8210.3 8239.4 8226.2 8222.9 8210
Men 4318 4330.6 4353.1 4359.1 4374 4374.4
Women 3858.9 3879.7 3886.3 3867.1 3848.9 3835.6
Employed in agriculture n/a n/a 4105.7 3998.3 4005.5 3652.6
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Structural changes in agricultural enterprises
July 2007 April 2008
Number of studied holdings 18 29
Total area of land in use, Ml ha 1.7 3.07
Average area within one holding, Th ha 94 106
Plans for land use expansion in 2008 50%
Land use expansion from July till December 2007 21%
Forecast average size in 2008, Th ha 143
Openness of information 72%
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Commodity positionsprice, EUR/T
Previous customs tariff
WTO Commitments
Specific duty rate,
EUR/MT
Ad valorem equivalent of specific rate
Ad valorem
rate
0202000000 Beef, frozen: 575
0202309000 - - other 568 20% 15%
0203000000 Pork fresh, cooled or frozen: 999
0203211000 - - - hogs 793 600 76% 10% 10%
0203290000 - - other: 1281 1000 8% 10%
0203291300 - - - - loin and its cuts 1618 1000 62% 10%
0203295500 - - - - - boned 1266
0206000000 Food by-products, fresh, cooled or frozen 517 500 97% 15%
0206220000 - - liver: 527
0207000000 Meat and food by-products of poultry of fresh,
cooled or frozen: 279 400 143% 10% 10%
0207141000 - - - - boned 261 400 154% 10% 10%
Source: Law of Ukraine “On Customs Tariff”, draft Law “On Amending the Customs Tariff”, own calculations
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Destination of wheat export
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Theoretical grain thru put port capacity, Ml tons
2002/03 2003/04 2005/06 2008/09 2012*
17-18 20-22 27-28 31-32 45
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Ukraine: The key elevator chains
Company Number of elevators
Total capacity, Th tons
Glencore 35 2 080Toepfer 11 513
Bunge 4 612Cargill 6 387
WJ 5 204Louis Dreyfus 5 264
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Prices for Elevator services UAH/mt $=7.7UAH
Ukraine. Silos services costs
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
receiving cleaning drying storage loading onrailw ay
transport
loading onauto transport
2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09
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Ukraine: Grain yield and profitability, %
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Ukraine: Wheat prices
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Ukraine: Corn prices
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Ukraine: Barley prices
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Ukraine: Comparative grain/sunseed values
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Crop margins, UAH, as of May 2008
Crop efficiency
Sunflower (Steppe)
Winter rapeseed (Forest Steppe) Winter wheat
(Steppe)
Corn (Forest Steppe)
Price, UAH/T 4000 2900 1430 1230
Yield, T/ha 2.7 2.8 4.2 9.2
Government payment, UAH/Ha - - 100 -
Total Direct Costs, UAH/Ha 1285.9 1348.8 1915.8 1791.3
- Seed 173.3 252.3 413.4 361.4
- Fuel 213.3 369.4 301.9 346.5
- Fertilizer 460.0 266.3 487.3 320.0
- Crop protection 275.0 206.0 179.6 289.3
- Melioration - - 20.7 -
- Labour costs 48.5 55.7 89.9 106.9
- Machinery 65.2 119.6 156.0 86.1
- Other services costs - 77.6 185.0 90.0
- Autopark services costs 50.6 1.9 82.0 191.1
Total Revenue/Ha 9514.1 6771.2 4190.2 9524.7
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Crop structure evolution
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Ukraine: Crop structure evolution
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Ukraine: Grain and Oilseed Crops Structure, Th ha
Crop 2008 2007 Growth/Reduction
Rapeseed 1 750 1 145 + 605
Wheat 7 000 6 511 + 489
Corn 2 500 2 200 + 300
Sunseed 4 320 4 170 + 150
Rye 465 352 + 113
Millet 130 106 + 24
Oat 425 407 + 18
Others 160 151 + 9
Total areas’ growth + 1,708
Barley 4 300 5 055 - 755
Sugar beet 410 635 - 225
Peas 225 368 - 143
Soybean 600 665 - 65
Buckwheat 310 337 - 27
Total areas’ reduction - 1,215
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Ukraine: The Budget support for farmers, 2008
Crops Support rates, UAH/ha
Winter wheat, triticale, rye 100
Spring wheat, triticale, oats, peas, buckwheat, millet
100
Soybeans, at least 1st reproduction 80
Soybeans, 2nd and 3rd reproductions 50
Rice 220
Sugar beet 750
Long-fibred flax and retted hemp stalks 640
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Ukraine: Financial support for agricultural producers, UAH Bl
Year 2005 2006 2007 2008
Total of VAT benefits*
3.78 4.12 5.71 8
The direct budgetary support **
1.78 2.80 4.04 4.5:
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Ukraine: Ways of the Gov’t activity in the grain market
Seasons Mortgage purchases*
Intervention purchases*
Forward purchases
2001/2002 Х
2002/2003 Х
2003/2004 Х Х
2004/2005 Х Х
2005/2006 Х Х
2006/2007 Х Х
2007/2008 Х
2008/2009 Х Х
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Ukraine: Gov’t grain procurements, Th mt
Year Intentions Actually procured
2005/2006 1500** 135
2006/2007 400 176
2007/2008 580 425
2008/2009 881 352***
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Ukraine: Gov’t decisions on Ukraine’s
grain export quotas, 2006-2008The decision Time Wheat Barley Corn Rye
Government resolution of September 28, 2006, #1364
Automatic licensing
Government resolution of October 11, 2006, #1418
17.10.2006- 31.12.2006 400 600 600 3
Government resolution of December 8, 2006, #1701
14.12.2006-30.06.2007 3 600 500 3
Government resolution of February 13, 2007, #185
15.02.2007-30.06.2007 228 606 30
Government resolution of February 22, 2007, #290
26.02.07-07.06.07 Quotas cancelled
Quotas cancelled
Government resolution of May 16, 2007, #748
08.06.07-30.06.07 Quotas cancelled
Government resolution of June 20, 2007, #844
01.07.07- 31.10.07 3 3 3 3
Government resolution of October 31, 2007, #1287
20.06.07-31.12.07
Government resolution of September 26, 2007, #1179
01.01.08- 31.03.08 200 400 600 3
Government resolution of March 28, 2008, #271
01.04.08- 30.04.08 Automatic licensing
Government resolution of April 23, 2008, #418
01.01.08- 01.07.08 1200 900
Government resolution of May 21, 2008, #470
Both quotas and licenses were cancelled
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Ukraine: Estimated exporters’ losses from VAT refund delays
Share of paid VAT in export price* 16.67%
The VAT refund delay 6 months
Credit rates 12%
Exporter losses (16.67х0.5х12), % to export price
10%
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Ukraine: Public Associations in the Ag Sector
Title Activity field of members
Leader Possible source of information
Functional
Ukrainian Grain Association
Export and production of grain
Klymenko Volodymyr – President
http://www.uga-port.org.ua
All-Ukrainian Baker Association
Bread baking Slabovskyi Volodymyr – President
http://www.vap.org.ua
Union of Poultry Raisers of Ukraine
Poultry meat production
Bakumenko Olexandr – Chairman of Board
http://www.ptaha.kiev.ua
UkrKhlibProm Association
Bread baking Vasylchenko Olexandr – Board Chairman
http://ukrhlibprom.org.ua
TvarynProm Corporation
Meat production Gnatiuk Sergiy – Director General
http://www.minagro.gov.ua/page/?718
Union of Agricultural Exchanges of Ukraine
Exchange trade in agricultural produce
Berenshtein Borys – Director General
http://www.sabu.org.ua
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Ukraine: Public Associations in the Ag Sector
Title Activity field of members Leader Possible source of information
Horizontal
Union of Agricultural Enterprises of Ukraine
Production of agricultural produce
Borovyk Olexandr – Chairman
http://who-is-who.com.ua/bookmaket/indagrim2007/16/281.html
Association of Farmers and Private Land Owners
Production of agricultural produce
Tomich Ivan http://who-is-who.com.ua/bookmaket/indagrim2007/16/282.html
Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation
Comprises associations, producers, processors and exporters of agricultural produce
Kozachenko Leonid – President
http://www.agroconf.org
Ukrainian Club of Agricultural Business
Production, processing and export of agricultural produce
Lissitsa Alex – President
http://www.agribusiness.kiev.ua
National Agricultural Chamber of Ukraine
Production of agricultural produce, advisory activity, wholesale markets of agricultural produce
Gladiy Mykhailo – President
http://www.agrichamber.org.ua
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Ukraine: Private information sources
Daily news
Daily report
Weekly report
Monthly report
Market studies
Multi-client studies
Studies at request
UkrAgroConsult
http://www.ukragroconsult.com/
* * * * * *
APK-Inform http://www.apk-inform.com/
* * * * * *
AgroPerspektiva
http://www.agroperspectiva.com/
* * * * * *
ProAgro http://www.proagro.com.ua * * * * *
Agriculture http://www.agriagency.com.ua/
* * * * *
AgroOglyad http://www.lol.org.ua/ * * * *
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Ukraine: Markets covered by private information sources
Grain market
Oilseed market
Meat market
Milk market
Sugar market
Fruit and Veg. Market
UkrAgroConsult
http://www.ukragroconsult.com/
* * * * *
APK-Inform http://www.apk-inform.com/
* * * * * *
AgroPerspektiva
http://www.agroperspectiva.com/
* * * *
ProAgro http://www.proagro.com.ua/
* * *
Agriculture http://www.agriagency.com.ua/
* * *
AgroOglyad http://www.lol.org.ua/ *
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ROUND TABLE
THE PUBLIC AND PRIVATE SECTORS IN THE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE UKRAINIAN GRAIN SECTOR
ORGANIZERS - FAO, EBRD
Presentation prepared by Commodity Market AnalystUkrAgroConsult
site:: www.ukragroconsult.comwww.blackseagrain.net