"the prospective toolbox", a sesame for smooth innovation?

Where do we want to go?Prospective strategy tools

How do we get there,?Performance strategy tools

© Silver-Brains sprl consulting and training 2016

The « prospective toolbox » ® approach

Concepts, surveys, graphs, calculations, trends, processes, design, simulation, performance,…

Everyday’s story

Open Innovation

Big data

Disruptive

Business (Buzzwords), as usualSales

Risk

Creativity

Strategy

AnalysisAdjacent innovation

Frugal innovationPrototypingMe tooLife cycleMarket shareCash flowLeaderFollowerCustomer-centricService innovation Business modelSwot, ….

So what?

© Silver-Brains April 2016 2

Internet of things

Co

-creatio

n

Ecosystem

In quest of meaning… soft issues, dreams, hopes, emotions

Everyone’s story

He

art

Love responsibility

Care for others

Dream

Metap

ho

rs

Allego

ries

Passion for truth

Quest for the absolute

Refusal of social lies

Mu

sic

Alienating work

Surrealism/real

Pessimism/optimism

Socio

logy

Psychology

Youth

Memories

Poetry

Nostalgy

Philosophy


MotivationEmo

tion

s

Egoïsm

Egocentric

Money

Wisdom

Bea

uty

Strength

In quest of meaning: soft issues are important

• Active listening, body language, leadership, IQ and EQ (brain and soul approach)• Management of expectations: deliverables, planning, budget, and people• Conflict management, sharpness, concision, clear communication• Motivation by context and behavior, not by decree• Manage Structure and Function balance• People and Task management balance• Safety and Flexibility balance• Cope with complexity and Innovator’sdilemma• Exploit and explore D. Kahneman: system 1 & system 2 (Thinking fast & slow, D. K.)

17*24 =? Formal attention

(Fast) and thinking (slow)

Pattern recognition


Our (brave) new world

C O M P L E X I T Y is increasing

1- change is accelerating2- the world is globalized and more and more competitive3- information becomes a commodity: want to be convinced? Have a look at:

http://www.internetlivestats.com/total-number-of-websites/&


http://www.worldometers.info/

http://www.internetlivestats.com/total-number-of-websites/





http://www.worldometers.info/

Our (brave) new world: 15 global challenges

2015-16 State of the Future by Jerome C. Glenn, Elizabeth Florescu, and The Millennium Project Team


Our (brave) new world: characteristics

Volatile, Unstructured, Complex, Ambiguous (VUCA)

Complexity: a pain or a gain, an asset or a liability? (1)

• Can we control or eliminate complexity … OR….

• Should we try to take advantage of it, and how?

• Key aspects of complexity (social modelling, evolutionary biology)

• A system made of environment (infrastructure, laws, regulations, energy, ethics, etc…) and agents (people)

• Agents react to their environment and each other develop a strategy

• The whole process is based on feedback and adaptation and is conduciveto change

(1) Harnessing complexity (R. Axelrod & Michaël D. Cohen) Free Press new York 1999


Our brave new world: characteristics


Complexity: a pain or a gain?• We are dealing with systems that are not necessarily complicate (i.e. no

many moving parts) but

• small causes strong effects (initial conditions –> overwhelming weight)

• effects are not proportional to causes

• adaptative to environment and actions/reactions of other agents


Our brave new world: characteristics


Complexity: a pain or a gain?

3 main factors• Balance between variety and uniformity

• What/who should interact with whom/what (interaction)

• Which strategy should be copied, promoted and which one should beabandonned (Selection)

Innovation (design of new process, good, service, business model, strategy) encompasses the right balance of variation, interaction and selection


Everyone’s hope: innovate and succeed & overcome The PAIN

Why does innovation fail in most cases?

1- At INDIVIDUAL LEVEL- Our own human neurology: brains are set up to minimize loss, preserve what wehave, avoid risk, even with potential great advantage (cf. Daniel Kahneman)

- Our decision processes can block us (limited rationality, political, garbage can, cultural, peer pressure, consensus, politically correct,…) (cf. Herbert Simon)

2- At COMPANY (organization) LEVEL- (Big) companies are profiled for economy of scale, perennity, core business (do

more of what we do best). More innovation ≡ more risk possibility to bedisruptive for the organization, for the well-oiled sales-marketing-production engine

« I love progress but I hate change » (Mark Twain)© Silver-Brains April 2016 10

What can we do about it? - Better define our goals

- Change the culture?

- Change the structures?

- Change the organization?

- Change our behavior and attitude?

- …. But how?© Silver-Brains April 2016 11

Everyone’s hope: innovate and succeed & overcome The PAIN

How to succeed? The gain

- Create capabilities to identify and address change

- Try to change concepts and processes within organization

- Change, simplify structures and framework

- Change our attitude: more tolerance to failure and less defiance for success

- Create a « rainforest » ecosystem (cf. Victor Hwang and Gregg Horowitt)

i.e. a human ecosystem where creativity, business acumen, science and technology,venture capital and a common will to cooperate is based on confidence, mutual respect

AND harmony in human relations, in a clear and stable regulatory frameworkand in a culture of progress and achievement.


Various ways

• Work on various cognitive biases• Tackle issues, backstage and on stage• Work on the 3 main dimensions animating a group

of human beings

LEADER Power vision team spirit

MANAGER Situation Teamwork Results

COACH PeopleHuman relationsHarmony andrespect © Silver-Brains April 2016 13


The tools



Prospective strategy tools

Morphologicalmatrix

Delphi Scenarios future wheel

Trendanalysis

Modellingand more

BehavorialtoolsLeaderManagerCoach

Strategic analysis of organizat.

Dialogmodel

Praise and criticize,

Non violent

communic.

Private/busin. life balance

Smart and Pureanalysis,Needs and desires

Conflictmanagemt

Black swans,Riskanalysis

Challenges and competencies

JoHarry,

Eisenhowermodel

Social

systemsmodelling

Innovation tools

TRL scale Variety, interaction, selection

Creativebusiness models

Ecosystem Open innovation

Co-creation,Responsibleinnovation

The Prospective toolbox: main tools below

The holistic approach



The change matrixThe change matrix (©Silver-Brains)

Do

Live

Decide

GoodBad

Good

Bad 1 2

3 4

Legend

1 Total failure

2 Frustration and possiblefailure

3 Incompetence and lazyness

4 Best performance

The holistic approach



From business model to human model

The « Wholistic » approach


Innovation:creation of a sustainable new product, service, process or business model


The « wholistic » model for innovation: matching vision, well-doing and well-being

Where to go? Prospective strategy/potential futures How to go? Performance strategy/people and culture

Potential future path,alternatives

Potential organization,culture

Interaction

Matchingselection

Yes

NoNo

Final value proposition

Loop back until matchingLoop back until matching

The « Wholistic » approachHow to succeed? The gain

Do you want to know more on that

• Holistic and focussed,

• Interdisciplinary and interactive,

• Practical, no non-sense, hands on methodology

?Contact us at [email protected]


mailto:[email protected]

"the prospective toolbox", a sesame for smooth innovation?

Leadership & Management