the portland region in 2010 - portland state university portland region in 2010: ... oregon office...

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The Portland Region in 2010:

Taking Stock and Looking to the Future

Sheila A. Martin, Director Institute of Portland Metropolitan Studies / Population Research Center Presentation for Multnomah County Commission, 2/23/10 [email protected]

Key Messages

Demography = Economy

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Regional Demographic Trends

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Perc

en

t ch

an

ge

PDX Growth

OR Growth

USA Growth

Source: Portland State University Population Research Center, US Census Bureau, Washington State Office of Financial Management

Population Growth Population percent change by decade - USA, OR, seven county region

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Population distribution

500,011 553,215

766,068 881,961

1,081,978

1,341,550

1,523,741

1,927,836

2,191,785

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2008

County Population in Seven County Region, 1930-2008


Population distribution

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2008

Multnomah

Washington

Clark

Clackamas

Yamhill

Columbia

Skamania

Population Distribution by County, 1930-2008


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0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

Fo

reca

sted

Po

pu

lati

on

Multnomah

Washington

Clark

Clackamas

Yamhill

Columbia

Skamania

Forecast Forecasted Population by County, 2000-2040

Source: Oregon Office of Economic Analysis, Washington State Office of Financial Management

Migration

Population growth = Births -

Deaths + Migration

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Components 2000-2008

27.9% 22.1%

58.7% 53.8% 43.2%

30.2% 30.2%

72.1% 77.9%

41.3% 46.2% 56.8%

69.8% 69.8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Net Migration, 2000-2008

Natural Increase, 2000-2008

Population Growth by Net Migration and Natural Increase, 2000-2008


Migration

6,737

86

29,396

22,456

2,288

10,449

31

26,261

4,758

-5,246

23,147

7,270

46,547

708

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

Net International Migration

Net Domestic Migration

International and Domestic Migration by County, 2000-2008


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Population Growth and Unemployment

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Unem

ploy

men

t rat

e

Year

Unemployment

United States

Oregon

Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton MSA

Where do people come from?

Place of Birth Percent

All USA 86.4% OR 39.8% WA 10.8% CA 10.7% IL 1.6% NY 1.5% TX 1.5% ID 1.2% MN 1.2% MI 1.0% CO 0.9% Other USA 16.1%

Place of Birth Percent

All Foreign Born 13.6% Mexico 3.8% Vietnam 0.9% Korea 0.7% Ukraine 0.7% Canada 0.6% China 0.5% Philippines 0.5% India 0.5% Germany 0.4% Russia 0.4% All other non-USA 4.6%

Domestic Migration International Migration

Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey. 2005-2007 PUMS data

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Race and ethnicity

2.8%

1.0%

3.5% 3.4% 2.6%

0.9%

4.6%

6.9%

3.1%

1.0%

5.8%

10.5%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Black Native American Asian Hispanic

1990

2000

2008

Minorities as a Percent of the Region’s Population, 1990-2008

Who gets left behind?

Oregon’s Graduation Gap

Source: Alliance for Excellent Education

Percent of all Oregon students who graduate from high school with a regular diploma in four years

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Education= economic success

Source: US Census Bureau, 2007 American Community Survey

Washington and Multnomah counties lead educational attainment

Source: US Census Bureau, 2007 American Community Survey

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Sub Regional Demographic Analysis

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North Portland (1301) HH Size 2.3

% Hisp 14.6%

% Black 14.8%

% with BA 32.1%

% English 80.1%

Med HH Income $46,825


1301

Outer SE (1302) HH Size 2.5

% Hisp 11.6%

% Black 8.4%

% with BA 16.3%

% English 76.8%



1302

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Inner SE (1303) HH Size 2.3

% Hisp 8.9%

% Black 2.2%

% with BA 33.1%

% English 80.1%



1303

West Portland (1304) HH Size 1.9

% Hisp 3.7%

% Black 2.4%

% with BA 60.4%

% English 85.5%



1304

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Inner NE (1305) HH Size 2.0

% Hisp 5.5%

% Black 5.4%

% with BA 47.7%

% English 85.3%



1305

Gresham + East Multnomah County (1306) HH Size 2.6

% Hisp 15.9%

% Black 3.9%

% with BA 19.3%

% English 81.7%


1302

1306

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Far East Multnomah and Clackamas Counties (1307) HH Size 2.6

% Hisp 5.0%

% Black 0.6%

% with BA 20.6%

% English 90.7%



1307

Regional Economy

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1,052,500

978,900

850,000

900,000

950,000

1,000,000

1,050,000

1,100,000

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Total Nonfarm Employment – Portland MSA

Nov. 2007

Dec 2009

Almost 74K jobs lost from Nov. 2007 to Dec. 2009 - about 7 percent

Source: Oregon Employment Department, January 2004-December 2009. Not Seasonally adjusted.

464,400

431,000

390,000

400,000

410,000

420,000

430,000

440,000

450,000

460,000

470,000

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Multnomah County Jobs

About 33K jobs lost – about 7 percent

Nov 2007

Dec 2009

Source: Oregon Employment Department, January 2004-December 2009. Not seasonally adjusted.

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Source: Oregon Employment Department, January 2006-November 2009. Seasonally adjusted.

Multnomah County Portland MSA

Persistent Unemployment Multnomah County Portland MSA

Source: Oregon Employment Department, January 2006-November 2009. Seasonally adjusted.

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Not all industries are equally affected

Health care continues to add jobs

-15.8%

-8.5%

-4.6%

-4.3%

-3.0%

0.0%

0.4%

-18% -16% -14% -12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2%

Construction

Manufacturing

Finance

High Tech Mfg

Retail

Education

Health care

Industry Employment Growth % increase in one year, November 2009

Source: Oregon Employment Department Portland MSA Nonfarm Employment, November 2008-November 2009.

There are still jobs available

Source: Oregon Employment Department

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Income lags other Regions

Jobs are a lagging indicator

Source: Google Finance, February 4th, 2009 – February 3rd, 2010

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Foreclosures came later than other regions

Source: Realtytrac data on Preforeclosures and Bank Reversions in the Portland MSA, May 2007-October 2009

Foreclosure Activity in Multnomah County, May 2007 – October 2009

The Self-Sufficiency Standard Multnomah County, Oregon

Source: Diana M. Pearce, The Self-Sufficiency Standard for Oregon, 2008

FPL: $11,201

FPL: $14,840

FPL: $17,346

FPL: $21,834

$17,491 ($8.28/hr)

$28,254 ($13.38)

$32,360 ($15.32)

$38,714 ($9.17/hr per adult)

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

Adult Adult + Preschooler

Adult + Preschooler +

Schoolage

Two Adult + Preschooler +

Schoolage

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Self-Sufficiency in the Portland Metro

$48,421

$33,602

$51,937 $32,360

$31,600

Source: Diana M. Pearce, The Self-Sufficiency Standard for Oregon, 2008

For a household with one adult, one preschooler, and one school-aged child

6% 9%

7% 10%

8%

Percent of Population Below the Federal Poverty Level, 2008

Source: American Community Survey 2005-2007, PUMS data

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25% 27%

26% 24%

30%

Percent of Population Below the Self-Sufficiency Standard, 2008


Better education alleviates poverty Percent of Households Below the Self-Sufficiency Standard by Gender and Educational Attainment: Oregon 2005-2007


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The impact of education varies

36%

64%

55%

76%

26%

49%

38%

59%

22%

36%

32%

46%

11%

20% 14%

28%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

White (non-Latino) Male Minority Male White (non-Latino) Female Minority Female

Less than high school

High school diploma

Some college or associate's degree

Bachelor's degree or higher

What will bring us out?

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Patent creation

New ideas form the basis for new businesses

Not all ideas are patentable

Source: Prof. Michael E. Porter, Cluster mapping Project, Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness, Harvard Business School, 2006.

Patents per 10,000 employees, Portland and Comparator MSAs, 2006

Funding good ideas

Source: The MoneyTree Report by PwC and NVCA based on data from Thomson Reuters.

Venture Capital Investment for Portland and Comparator MSAs, 2008

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Creating independent businesses Percent of Employees Working at Enterprises with Fewer than 20 Employees for Portland and Comparator MSAs, 2006

Source: U.S. Census Statistics of U.S. Businesses Tabulations by Enterprise Size, 2006. County Business Patterns

Business starts and entrepreneurship

0 200 400 600 800

1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14

New

Bus

ines

s Li

cens

es

New Business Licenses in the City of Portland, September 2008 – January 2010

Source: City of Portland Bureau of Revenue, September 2008 – January 2010.

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What will improve our chances?

•  Oregon families use a higher percentage of family income to pay for college.

•  This percentage has risen from 25% in 1992 to 36% in 2006.

Source: “Tuition in the Oregon University System.” Oregon University Service Issue Brief, 2009. http://www.ous.edu/about/legnote09/ib.php

Trends that could make or break us

1 million new people? Or more? Who will they be? What will their

education level be? Can we preserve what’s important about

our place?

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