the planetary and the personal: (almost) 3 decades of work in health
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The planetary and the personal: (almost) 3 decades of work in health
AUMSS: Sowing the Seeds – Growing New Zealand’s future
doctors July 29, 2012
A/Prof Colin D ButlerNational Centre for Epidemiology
and Population Health
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Main themes
public goods, norms, institutions
emerging diseases
gambling with the planet and global health
I have a dream
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Public goods
Safety of a bridge (infrastructure)
Willingness to share information, common
language
Functioning banking/insurance/justice system
Public health (eg clean water, air, health services)
The sun
The planetary environment, ecosystem “services”
“As early as my first years at University I had begun to feel misgivings about the opinion that mankind is constantly developing in the direction of progress.
My impression was that the fire of its ideals was burning low without anyone noticing it or troubling about it.”
Albert Schweitzer (1875-1965)
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335 Emerging Infectious
Disease “events”
Jones et al. Nature, (2008)
Lassa No reflection of disease burden,
existing or future
Prevalence of stunting among children under 5 years old in India by state
Black et al, Lancet 2008
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A young unregistered refugee girl at Kutupalong camp uses a machete for splitting firewood to sell – her family’s only income.
(Richard Sollom, Physicians for Human Rights)
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Sea Level: 1993-2011
Rainfall intensity : 1900-2011
Arctic sea ice: 1979-2012
Earth system observations
Land-ocean temperature: 1880-2011
uncertainty
“Weather Extremes Leave Parts of U.S. Grid Buckling”New York Times, July 25, 2012
“We’ve got the ‘storm of the century’ every year now,” Bill Gausman, senior vice president, Potomac Electric Power Company
road, rail, flights, nuclear power, electricity grids .. hospitals .. Health21
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McDonalds & Coca Cola,– major sponsors of London Olympics! (& the next two, at
least..) and Cadbury’s for 2012
Raw data: FAO
oil
2nd price spike: oil price + climate change?
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Two food price spikes .. Is the era of cheap food over?
Drought affected corn, Missouri, July 2012
"We're moving from a crisis to a horror story," said Purdue University agronomist Tony Vyn. "I see an increasing number of fields that will produce zero grain.“ (July 18, 2012)
Public goods erosion - corruption
• FIFA, Murdoch, Global financial crisis, “Banksters”, banking regulators, Goldmann Sachs, Swiss Banks, British Banks, Madoff, kleptocracy,
• Some environmental agreements
• Canberra hospital
• fake drugs, fake Yellow Fever immunization cards
• “medical industrial complex”
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Civilisation: a system at risk?
energy, raw materials: emerging scarcity
economic system: archaic
inequality: civil stress, terrorism, fascism, war
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rapid public health response*limited antimicrobial resistance, but increasing nutrition fair
public health breakdownnutrition worseliving conditions worseconflict increasing?
Could civilisation failure “breed” a
megapandemic?
* For diseases perceived as major threats to developed countries
Suppression, science resistance
Cognitive, emotional overloadBarriers
Enablers
sustainability and public health
Public health precedents (infectious diseases, sanitation, health services, “health for all”)
Allies (civil society, some military – yes .. not a typo!)
energy, soil, new technologies
3030
MovementA large global civil society network of health activists supportive of Health for All - organised to combat the economic and political causes of deepening inequalities in health worldwide
The People’s Health Movement
A large global civil society network of health activists supportive of Health for All - organised to combat the economic and political
causes of deepening inequalities in health worldwide
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Global Energy Assessment, 2012Switch rich country energy subsidies for fossil fuels
& nuclear to renewables and carbon capture
Solar (1975-20072007-10)
NUCLEAR
US$/kwH(2005
dollars)
What can one person do?
think, act, behave, purchase ethically
join with others
tithe your effort (10%)
a spiritual dimension is likely to help
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