the philippines: moving forward - pasia · the philippines: moving forward ”prospects and...
TRANSCRIPT
16 November 2016, Slide 1
The Philippines: Moving Forward”Prospects and Challenges”
Jonathan L. Ravelas
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------DISCLAIMER------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------This document is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy, completeness orcorrectness. Opinion expressed are subject to change without prior notice. Any recommendation contained in this document does not have regard to specificinvestment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any addressee. This document is for the information of the addressees only and is not to be takenon substitution for the exercise of judgment by the addressees. BDO Unibank, Inc. accepts no liability whatsoever for and direct or consequential loss arising from anyuse of this publication. This document is not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. In the course of our regular business, we mayhave a position in the securities mentioned and may make purchases and/or sales of them from time to time in the open market.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
16 November 2016, Slide 2
Ravelas has been a leading advocate in creating and running a wide
range of educational programs for private and institutional investors,
ranging from the basics of financial markets to advanced trading
strategies, having worked in the financial markets for almost 20 years.
He has delivered numerous lectures in the field of forecasting here
and abroad and regularly provides economic commentaries in the
Asian Wall Street Journal and in some of the country’s major dailies.
He is also a regular commentator on economic and financial marketissues on ANC, Bloomberg and BBC.
16 November 2016, Slide 3
Presentation Outline
1.) Global Economy
2.) Philippine Economy
3.) Financial Market Outlook
4.) Risks
5.) Summary
16 November 2016, Slide 4
• US interest rates outlook after Sept 21 FOMCSlower and shallower: one last year, one this year, still data-dependent?Fed GDP growth projections lowered to 2% from 1.8%
• US long bond yieldBottom in place: 10-yr yld up 47bp from Brexit low? Continued recovery, or still lower for longer?
• Philippine rates outlookRising rates in line with US? Or faster/higher trajectory as growth accelerates, liquidity tightens on higher loan growth, gov’t spending/borrowings?
• PCOMP, PHP pullbacksOutright buy, buy on dips, or sell into strength? PCOMP down 10.51% from July high, still at Asian-high and near-historical highs at 17.53X 2017 P/E versus India at 15.31X, Indonesia at 114.82X, US S&P at 16.02X
• Geopolitics: known unknownsClinton maintains a narrow lead in recent polls.
Issues confronting us at present
16 November 2016, Slide 5
The Global Economy
16 November 2016, Slide 6
World economyGrowth improving but challenges remain.
US A
• Economy shows resilience amid foreign headwinds.
• C onsumer spending becomes dominant engine of growth
J ob growth will keep Fed on track for another rate hike
• Inflation to follow full employment and above trend growth.
Euro Zone
• Economic slack persists with uneven growth unemployment
• More easing by EC B
• UK vote to leave EU; could reach brink of recession; BOE will need a strong response to keep growth positive
C hina
• Economy’s slowing path with risks of a sharper slowdown
• More stimulus may keep growth at 6.50% - 6.70%
• Policy reforms will be key to sustaining growth
16 November 2016, Slide 7
World economyGrowth targets firming up despite challenges.
Source : Bloomberg LP, BDO as of 25 October 2016
Country 2013A 2014A 2015A Last
(2Q2016)
2016F 2017F 2018F
World 3.30 3.40 3.10 N/A 2.90 3.10 3.30
USA 1.70 2.40 2.60 1.20 1.50 2.20 2.1
Euro Zone -0.30 1.10 2.0 1.60 1.50 1.30 1.50
Japan 1.40 0.0 0.60 0.70 0.50 0.70 0.60
BRICS 5.70 5.30 4.80 5.10 4.70 5.60 5.70
China 7.70 7.30 6.90 6.70 6.50 6.30 6.20
Asia Ex- JP 6.30 6.30 6.00 6.00 5.60 5.80 5.80
Indonesia 5.60 5.00 4.80 5.20 5.00 5.40 5.50
Philippines 7.10 6.20 5.90 7.00 6.70 6.30 6.50
Thailand 2.80 0.80 2.80 3.50 3.10 3.30 3.40
16 November 2016, Slide 8
Comparative Growth ratesPH: Leading the pack
Source: Bloomberg, BDO, ChartPoints
2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16F 4Q16F
Indonesia 4.7 4.7 5.0 4.9 5.2 5.1 5.1
Philippines 5.9 6.2 6.5 6.8 7.0 6.3 6.5
Malaysia 4.9 4.7 4.5 4.2 4.0 4.1 4.2
Thailand 2.7 2.9 2.8 3.2 3.5 3.1 3.3
Singapore 1.7 1.8 1.8 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.6
Asia-
Pacific
4.3 5.1 4.4 5.1 4.8 4.8 4.8
16 November 2016, Slide 9
2015 per capital GDP Comparison: Implied catch-up growth by PH to be at par with its peers.
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Philippines Indonesia Thailand Malaysia
Implied C atch Up G rowth Philippine G DP Per C apita
3,676115%
2,858 29%
278%
6,148
10,809
20
15
GD
P P
er C
ap
ita in
US
D$
Source: PSA, BDO, Bloomberg
16 November 2016, Slide 10
Philippines
16 November 2016, Slide 11
Signs of a BreakoutGrowth momentum rising!
4.9
5.8
7.0
6.2
3.3
6.46.8
1.1
5.8
7.0
1.9
6.1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
G DP G rowth (Ave. in %) Inflation Rate (Ave. in %) Unemployment Rate (Ave%)
2004-2009 2010-2015 1Q2016 2Q2016
Source: Bloomberg LP, BDO, ChartPoints, PSA
16 November 2016, Slide 12
Looking backHigher economic growth and increased prosperity.
Key Economic Indicators 2009 2015 2016-2020 (Ave.)
Population (million) 91.00 101.40 109.80
GDP growth(%) 1.10 5.90 6.50
GDP per capita (USD$) 1,854 2,877 3632
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -3.70 -0.90 -3.00
Unemployment (%) 7.50 6.30 5.50
Inflation (%) 4.30 1.50 3.50
Policy Rate (%) 4.00 4.00 4.00
Interest Rate (3M, EOP) 3.89 2.67 3.00
Interest Rate (5Y, EOP) 6.28 3.93 4.50
Exchange rate (against US$,EOP)
46.20 47.06 45.50
Current Account (% of GDP) 5.00 2.90 3.10
Source: Bloomberg LP, BDO, ChartPoints
16 November 2016, Slide 13
Philippine Economy on a roll
13
1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
GDP Growth 5.0% 5.9% 6.2% 6.5% 6.8% 7.0%
Demand Side Breakdown
Private consumption 6.1% 6.4% 6.1% 11.8% 7.0% 7.3%
Government spending 0.2% 2.4% 15.7% 15.8% 11.8% 13.5%
Gross fixed capital formation 8.8% 12.7% 13.9% 24.2% 28.2% 27.2%
Exports 10.6% 5.1% 9.8% 10.9% 7.3% 6.6%
Imports 12.2% 12.6% 16.2% 14.9% 19.0% 20.9%
Supply-side breakdown
Agriculture, Fishery, Forestry 1.0% -0.1% -0.1% -0.2% -4.4% -2.1%
Industry Sector 5.3% 6.1% 6.1% 6.5% 9.0% 6.9%
Mining & Quarrying -2.5% -8.6% 0.5% 14.0% 11.2% -9.7%
Manufacturing 6.0% 4.7% 5.8% 6.1% 8.0% 6.3%
Construction 3.9% 16.6% 7.8% 8.2% 12.4% 11.0%
Utilities 5.0% 4.6% 7.0% 5.2% 9.9% 9.8%
Services Sector 5.5% 6.7% 7.2% 7.8% 7.6% 8.4%
Source: Bloomberg, PSA
16 November 2016, Slide 14
Drivers for a sustainable growth
• CONSUMPTION – OFW, BPO and Tourism Receipts at18% of GDP
• GOVERNMENT – Infrastructure spending at 5% of GDP
• INFRASTRUCTURE- Focus on agriculture,manufacturing, SME, Foreign Direct Investments(lifting of foreign ownership restrictions); lessenbureaucratic red tape
• EXPORTS- hindered by lower global trade activity
• IMPORTS- More raw materials, capital equipmentimportation.
16 November 2016, Slide 15
A glimpse of the pastDuterte administration has more room for boldness
2.90
1.80
0.70
6.50
2.90
1.70
3.50
2.64
4.15
3.43
2.03
2.99
7.658.00
3.55
4.42
3.82
3.33
5.42
6.70
7.00
3.80
3.303.60 3.70
4.80
6.00
7.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
Marcos Aquino I Ramos Estrada Arroyo Aquino II Duterte
Agriculture Manufacturing S ervices G DP
(CAGR in %)
Source: World Bank, Bloomberg, Businessworld
16 November 2016, Slide 16
Duterte’s 10-point program
Source: NEDA, Department of Finance
Continuity of macroeconomic policies
Tax reform
Land administration & reform
Human capital development
Infrastructure building Science, technology and arts
Ease of doing business, more investments/ FDI
Social safety nets, protection programs
Rural/agricultural development
Reproductive health & responsible parenthood
16 November 2016, Slide 17
Agriculture Tourism Manufacturing
Sectors to boost inclusive growth
16 November 2016, Slide 18
Fiscal Program OverviewImproving revenue and deficit profile
14.34
16.86
14.55 14.7 14.65
16.616.86 17.118.15 17.53
16.41
19.6
-2.49 -0.2 -3.55 -2.81 -1.76 -3
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Aquino I Ramos Estrada Arroyo Aquino II Duterte
Average Revenues Average Expenditure Average S urplus/ (Deficit)
Source: DBM
Note: Duterte (2017-2019 budget only)
16 November 2016, Slide 19
23.225.5
24.2 22.9 25.5 25.61
22.2
28
32.228.6
35.437.3
33.8
21.419.9
25.7
17.1
11.05
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Aquino I Ramos Estrada Arroyo Aquino II Duterte
Economic S ervices S ocial S ervices Debt Burden
Source: DBM
Budget DimensionsThe lowest debt service since 1986.
16 November 2016, Slide 20
National Government Fiscal Program
FISCAL PROGRAM
(in PhP Billion)2015
Actual2016
Actual2017
Projection2018
Projection2019
Projection
Revenues 2,109 2,257 2,481 2,990 3,326
% of GDP 15.8% 15.5% 15.6% 17.0% 17.2%
Disbursements 2,230 2,645 2,960 3,517 3,907
% of GDP 16.8% 18.7% 18.6% 20.0% 20.2%
Deficit 121.7 388.9 478.1 526.9 580.7
% of GDP -0.9% -2.7% -3.0 -3.0 -3.0
Source: DBM
16 November 2016, Slide 21
Comprehensive Tax Reform ProgramRevenue neutral to negative
Tax Incentives EstimatedTax Gains(PhP Bn)
Estimated Tax Loss (PhP Bn)
NetGain/(loss)
(PhP Bn)
Phase I (2017)Reduce Personal Income Tax (Jan.2017)Excise tax on gas, diesel, and other oil products“Sin Tax” on sugar sweetened drinksRemoving certain VAT exemptions
Phase II (2017)Reduce Corporate Income Tax (June 2017)Rationalization of fiscal perks
Phase III (2019)Lower Estate and Donor Tax (Jan. 2019)Rationalize valuation of properties
Phase IV (2019)Reduce Interest Income Tax (Jan. 2019)Consumption Tax Package
Luxury items 7.70Fatty foods 20.00Lottery and casinos 20.00Carbon tax 20.00Tobacco and Alcohol 58.20Mining 3.50
178.2018.10
163.40
33.80
43.50
129.40
(159.00)
(34.80)
(3.50)
(1.00)
200.70
(1.00)
40.00
128.40
TOTAL PhP566.40 (PhP198.30) PhP368.10
16 November 2016, Slide 22
The Outlook
16 November 2016, Slide 23
Long Term Forecasts
• ECONOMY- 7% average growth is achievable
• INFLATION – to normalize towards the 3.0% - 4.0%
• INTEREST RATES – to rise by 25-50 bps yearly
• FOREX RATE- to range between 45.00 – 50.00 levels
• STOCK MARKET – PSEi could rise to 14,000 levels(P/E 20x 2022)
16 November 2016, Slide 24
Macroeconomic ForecastStable business environment. Business as usual.
Source: Bloomberg LP, BDO, ChartPoints
2015A Last 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F
GDP (%) 5.80 7.00%(2Q16)
6.70 6.50 6.75 6.75
CPI (%) 1.52 2.30(Sept)
1.70 2.90 3.30 3.40
Interest RatesBSP (O/N)3M PDST- R25Y PDST- R2
4.002.667
3.9250
3.001.55183.9393
3.002.043.04
3.50 3.053.63
4.003.524.19
4.003.654.50
FX (USD/PhP) 47.02 48.475 47.70 48.00 47.50 46.25
Stock Market (PSEi)
6952.08 7445.14 7,800 8,500 9,000 10,000
16 November 2016, Slide 25
Monetary PolicyRemains appropriate amid stable inflation
Source: Bloomberg LP and ChartPoints
16 November 2016, Slide 26
Domestic Interest Rates.
Rate hikes measured; no debt problems despite plentiful liquidity
Source: Bloomberg LP and ChartPoints
16 November 2016, Slide 27
Technical View: USD/PhP (Long Term)Still highlights strong currency in the long-term.
Source: Bloomberg LP, BDO, ChartPoints
2nd Support 1st Support Last 1st Resistance 2nd Resistance
47.00 48.00 48.58 49.50 50.00
16 November 2016, Slide 28
Tourist Receipts, BPO Revenues, and OFW Remittances
2.30 2.35 3.30 3.63 2.64 2.68 3.09 3.61 4.75 5.07 6.19 6.511.30 2.002.91
4.37 6.328.30
10.1012.07
13.0015.60
18.9022.00
8.5510.69
12.76
14.4516.43
17.35
18.76
20.12
21.39
22.98
24.63
25.61
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Annual Revenues (in USD Billions)
Tourist Receipts BPO Revenues OFW Remittances
16 November 2016, Slide 29
Stock Market (PSEi) Only a break below the 7000 will change our 7800 yearend view.
Source: Bloomberg LP and ChartPoints
2nd Support 1st Support Last 1st Resistance 2nd Resistance
7000.00 7350.00 7445.14 7800.00 7800.00
16 November 2016, Slide 30
Market ValuationsPH: Valuations look pricey versus historical levels
Source: Bloomberg, BDO, ChartPoints
YTD 2015 2016F 2017F 52 week 52 week
% P/E P/E P/E high low
Indonesia 5419.07 17.99 26.66 17.82 14.82 5,482.84 4,330.76
Philippines 7273.95 4.63 21.81 18.43 17.53 8,118.44 6,084.28
Malaysia 1657.75 -2.05 18.23 16.65 15.33 1,729.13 1600.92
Thailand 1502.27 16.63 19.98 15.55 13.93 1,558.32 1,220.96
Singapore 2801.3 -2.82 12.45 13.51 12.86 3,025.76 2,528.44
India 27458.99 5.14 20.02 18.27 15.31 29077.28 22494.61
Average 19.86 16.71 14.96
Last
16 November 2016, Slide 31
=
A Tale of two economiesLook at the forest, not the trees
16 November 2016, Slide 32
The Business Picture
Retail Construction/real estate
Increasing number of
foreign brands enter the PH
market.
Strong demand for office and retail space.
Food
Increase in jobs. BPOs/OFW spending
Retail Construction/real estate
Increasing number of
foreign brands enter the PH
market.
Strong demand for office and retail space.
Food
Increase in jobs. BPOs/OFW spending
The business pictureSectors to benefit from the growth momentum.
16 November 2016, Slide 33
Summary
• PH growth still far from achieving itsgrowth potential.
• Room for improvements in fiscalspending and FDIs.
• Stable macroeconomic environment
• Environmental risks are high due toClimate change
16 November 2016, Slide 34
Risks
Domestic Risks•Words matter: If negative sentimentbecomes overwhelming it may prove to beself-fulfilling
• Policy U turns(particularly if it involves economic policies)
Contagion Risks
• Growth risks remain
• Geopolitical noise persists
• Cross-borders spills remain
16 November 2016, Slide 35
Likely policy changes if Hillary Clinton takes the helm
• General consensus is for Hillary winA Trump win likely to create significant disruption for various financial markets
• A divided houseSlim Democrat majority in Senate. Republican majority (but diminished) in House.
• One potential impact for Philippines Hillary campaign platform for taking back tax breaks for companies that move US jobs overseas, clawback of tax credits for several years, aimed to discourage US companies from outsourcing jobs and operations to other countries
• Infra spendingUS$250bn boost to infra spending over 5 yrsNote Phil government looking at P8 trillion total outlays or US$167bn over 6 yrs
• Tax reformsHigher tax rates on high-income earnersOne-time tax on foreign earnings kept offshoreTaxation of foreign sourced earnings kept offshoreAll these would tend to repatriate offshore cash from foreign earnings back to US, to fund capex, infra spending
35
16 November 2016, Slide 36
What now?
• Appreciate the Fundamentals…
• Know the risks ahead…
• Keep investing but be nimble
• Spend More
• Pray …Harder
16 November 2016, Slide 37
Reform agenda in AsiaWe’ve seen this playbook play well elsewhere in Asia.
Philippines China Thailand India
1. Continuity and beyond, reduce tax evasion, smuggling, corruption
Pres. Xi anti-corruption drive War on drugs started byThaksin in 2003, similarissues with extrajudicialkillings
Not particularlynoteworthy
2. Tax reformComprehensive Tax Reform Package
Not particularly noteworthy Not particularly noteworthy Recently enacted movefrom local to nationwide/unified system
3. Infrastructure build-out Investments >50% of GDP for years Ports, road, airports build-out key to take off ofmanufacturing, FDI, tourism
Increasing focus over thepast 10 years
4. More foreign & local direct investments
China as manufacturing workshop ofthe world
Japan FDI in particular,manufacturing winsincluding automotiveindustry
PM Modi “Make it India”drive offset however bybarriers to FDI
5. Pursue agriculture development and tourism
Core part of rural reforms, togetherwith urbanization of rural areas.Infrastructure build-ups/ access toraw materials and markets.
Value added agriculturalexports and tourism.
Limited progress,agricultural sector/monsoons as traditionalsource of macro volatility
6. Land reform Establishment of farmer self-ownedcooperatives in 1980s
Limited progress Limited progress
7. Strengthen education/ skills
Among the top students in math andscience aptitude tests
Limited progress World class IIT and IIMgraduate schools
8. Promote science & tech, creative arts
Cutting edge technology advances Limited progress IT strengths, BPO success
9. Expand/ improveconditional cash transfer
Significant focus of late, includinghukou reforms, pilot pensionschemes, health care coverage
Universal health carecoverage
Limited progress
10. Responsible parent/ reproductive health
One child/ urban household policy The oldest/ fastest ageingcountry in ASEAN
Limited progress
Source: BDO, IMF, World Bank
16 November 2016, Slide 38
2015 per capital GDP Comparison: Implied catch-up growth by PH to be at par with its peers.
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Philippines Indonesia Thailand Malaysia
Implied C atch Up G rowth Philippine G DP Per C apita
3,676115%
2,612 29%
278%
6,148
10,809
20
15
GD
P P
er C
ap
ita in
US
D$
Source: PSA, BDO, Bloomberg
16 November 2016, Slide 39
The Thailand experienceIts past accomplishments holds key to PH future.
In 1994, Thailand per capita income was US$2,612That’s PH per capita income as of 2015
Hard Infrastructure building roads, airports, bridges, ports, irrigation
Infrastructure as enabler for success Key areas: Agriculture, Tourism, Manufacturing
Attracting FDI Japanese wave of investments & manufacturing including cars/trucks hub
Tourism Thai hospitality & culture, Healthcare and medical tourism
Agriculture products and exportsGrown in Thailand (Shrimp farming, tropical fruits, etc.)
16 November 2016, Slide 40
Summary
• Global growth is improving butchallenges remain.
• Philippines is in better shape toface the difficulties that lie aheadbut is not immune to global risk.
• Present volatility creatingopportunities.
16 November 2016, Slide 41
41
Chorus from the Greek Play Antigone
"Be ready when the claws come out."
16 November 2016, Slide 42
Q & A
16 November 2016, Slide 43
Thank you for your time!
Follow me on Twitter @ravelasj
16 November 2016, Slide 44
Forecasts
16 November 2016, Slide 45
Interest Rates (Policy Rate)
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
DE
U.S.A. 0.25 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.25
Euro 0.25 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.00
Japan 0.10 0.10 0.0 -0.10 -0.10
ASIA
China 6.00 5.60 4.35 4.27 4.15
India 7.75 8.00 6.75 6.20 6.05
Philippines 3.50 4.00 4.00 3.00 3.25
Indonesia 7.50 7.75 7.50 6.15 6.10
Malaysia 2.99 3.23 3.05 2.85 2.85
Thailand 2.25 2.00 1.50 1.45 1.50
Korea 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.20 1.05
Source: BDO, ChartPoints and Bloomberg
16 November 2016, Slide 46
Interest Rates (3-Month Rate)
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
DE
U.S.A. 0.25 0.26 0.61 0.95 1.40
Euro 0.29 0.08 -0.13 -0.31 -0.29
Japan 0.15 0.11 0.08 -0.03 -0.06
ASIA
China 4.14 3.66 2.18
India 9.06 8.65 7.80
Philippines 0.49 2.54 2.27
Indonesia 7.84 7.17 8.86 6.16 5.61
Malaysia 3.32 3.86 3.84 3.15 3.31
Thailand 2.40 2.18 1.63 1.40 1.93
Korea 2.66 2.14 1.66
Singapore 0.40 0.46 1.19 1.03 1.24
Source: BDO, ChartPoints and Bloomberg
16 November 2016, Slide 47
FOREX Forecast
Spot 2015 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 2017 2018 2019 2020
EUR/USD 1.08 1.08 1.10 1.09 1.09 1.10 1.10 1.15 1.16 1.19
USD/JPY 104 120 103 103 104 105 105 110 108 114
GBP/USD 1.21 1.47 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.27 1.28 1.32 1.34 1.49
USD/CHF 0.99 1.00 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.01 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.98
AUD/USD 0.76 0.72 0.75 0.74 0.73 0.74 0.74 0.75 0.76 0.75
USD/CNY 6.77 6.49 6.75 6.78 6.80 6.84 6.85 6.84 6.98 6.54
USD/INR 66.82 66.15 67.50 67.50 67.75 67.63 67.50 66.50 68.50 68.50
USD/IDR 13003 13788 13125 13188 13250 13300 13300 13125 13319 13425
USD/MYR 4.15 4.29 4.10 4.10 4.13 4.19 4.20 3.90 3.63 3.50
USD/PhP 48.34 47.06 47.70 48.00 48.10 48.40 48.40 46.00 45.50 46.00
USD/SGD 1.38 1.41 1.38 1.38 1.39 1.40 1.38 1.36 1.33 1.35
USD/KRW 1131 1172 1135 1145 1155 1165 1150 1100 1100 1100
USD/THB 34.93 36.08 35.00 35.00 35.30 35.40 36.00 34.50 32.70 32.50
Source: BDO, ChartPoints and Bloomberg
16 November 2016, Slide 48
Commodities Forecast
Spot 2015 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 2017 2018 2019 2020
METALS
GOLD 1275 1061 1266 1273 1278 1283 1280 1296 1309 1320
SILVER 17.81 13.84 17.53 17.61 17.70 17.79 17.75 18.04 18.31 18.62
NICKEL 10189 8780 10015 9982 10027 10062 10042 10177 10273 10353
STEEL 497.0 391.0 536.3 502.5 512.5 508.5 516.5 518.0 500.0 559.9
ENERGY
WTI 49.37 37.04 51.02 52.68 53.71 54.24 53.82 55.41 56.28 57.03
Brent 50.25 37.28 52.65 54.44 55.43 55.99 55.58 57.58 59.01 60.16
Dubai 47.81 32.13
AGRI
Corn 350.2 358.7 353.1 363.6 372.2 381.8 377.0 404.5 417.5 394.5
Wheat 405 470 416.6 438.2 456.9 477.8 467.1 515.6 526.0 492.0
Sugar 22.93 15.24 22.8 22.4 21.5 20.8 21.3 19.2 18.0 19.0
Soybeans 996.2 871.2 983.3 999.2 1008 1001 998.7 981.2 968.5 1087
Palm Oil 2760 2398 2728 2721 2715 2700 2710 2712
Source: BDO, ChartPoints and Bloomberg
16 November 2016, Slide 49
Jonathan “Jonas” L. Ravelasis First Vice President and Chief Market Strategist of BDO Unibank
He joined the Bank’s Treasury Group in 2002 to provide analysis onfinancial markets and macroeconomic developments in local andforeign economies. He held the same position at Equitable PCI Bank’sTreasury Department from 1998 to 2002. His prior experienceincludes working as strategist, analyst, equities dealer and portfoliomanager in both money management and institutional equitybrokerage settings with DBS Securities (Manila) and ACE Securities(Manila).
Ravelas has been a leading advocate in creating and running a widerange of educational programs for private and institutional investors,ranging from the basics of investing to advanced trading strategies,having worked in the financial markets for almost 20 years.
He has delivered numerous lectures in the field of forecasting hereand abroad and regularly provides economic commentaries in theAsian Wall Street Journal and in some of the country’s major dailies.
He is also a regular commentator on economic and financial marketissues on ANC, Bloomberg, and CNN Philippines.
Recently, FocusEconomics ranked him as the #1 Current Accountforecaster for the Philippines for 2015.
Ravelas holds a bachelor's degree in Management of FinancialInstitutions from the De La Salle University (Manila).
Age:44 / Success Mantra: Fortune favors the brave.