the philippine economy: progress, challenges, strategies by secretary arsenio m. balisacan
DESCRIPTION
Socioeconomic Planning Secretary and NEDA Director General Arsenio M. Balisacan's statement during the press briefing in Malacañang on February 17, 2014 on the Philippine economy and poverty reduction roadmap.TRANSCRIPT
The Philippine Economy:
Progress, Challenges, Strategies
ARSENIO M. BALISACAN
17-Feb-14 1
Malacañan Palace, 17 February 2014
Secretary of Socioeconomic Planning
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000 Real GDP at 2000 prices (Millions Php) Trend (HP Filter)
The Philippine economy has been growing robustly…
Source: Philippine Statistics Authority and National Economic and Development Authority
Strong macroeconomic fundamentals supported this
remarkable performance.
Sustainable fiscal and external position
Low and Stable inflation Favorable interest rate and
sound banking system
* end-November 2013, **Jan-Nov 2013, *** end-June 2013
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Headline Inflation
Low-end Target
High-end Target
Note: High and low-end targets are based on the BSP publication on Inflation Targeting dated September 2013; Actual inflation figures are based on the 2006 CPI series.
* 2013 data is for the period Jan-Sep
52.7 44.1 37.1 31.3 32.6 30.1 27 24.1 21.9
1.9
4.4 4.8
2.1
5.6
4.5
3.1 2.8
4.6
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*
External Debt to GDP Ratio (LHS) Current Account to GDP Ratio (RHS)
* Fiscal balance to GDP as of September 2013; NG Debt to
GDP as of November
0
5
10
15
20
25
0
2
4
6
8
10
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
NPL Ratio,LHS*
Real interestrates, RHS**
CAR, RHS***
-4.00
-3.00
-2.00
-1.00
0.00
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*
NG Debt to GDP (LHS) Fiscal Balance to GDP (RHS)
National Government’s Sectoral Spending (% of GDP)
The government has considerable fiscal space for making
investments to catalyze private ventures, provide public
goods and fund social programs
Source: Department of Budget and Management and Philippine Statistics Authority
-
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Health Education, Culture and Manpower Development Interest Payment Infrastructure and Other Capital Outlay
6.8-7.2% Unemployment Rate
26.3% (2009)
25.2% (2012) Poverty Rate
Where are we now?
PDP 2011-2016 Targets
7-8% Gross Domestic Product
22% Investment/GDP ratio
Poverty Incidence down to
16.6%
We are on track with respect to our economic targets. But we lag with
respect to our desired social outcomes.
Unemployment rate
7.0% (2012)
7.1% (2013)
Underemployment rate
20.0% (2012)
19.3% (2013)
20.3% (2012)
21.1% (2013)
Fixed Capital as ratio
to GDP
6.8% (2012)
7.2% (2013)
Real GDP Growth
• Good governance has proven to be an effective platform
upon which strategies should be implemented.
• Macroeconomic (fiscal, financial, external) and political
stability fuels positive expectations that lead to growth.
• Economic growth is necessary but not sufficient for poverty
reduction.
• Growth strategies need to have spatial and sectoral
dimensions to ensure inclusivity.
• Disasters can negate the gains and even push back
development.
6
Lessons Learned: Midterm Assessment
of PDP 2011-2016
GDP Growth Targets for 2014-2016
Indicator Baseline
(2012)
Annual Plan Targets
2014 2015 2016
Gross Domestic Product (%) 6.8 6.5 -7.5 7.0-8.0 7.5-8.5
GVA in agriculture, hunting,
fishery and forestry 2.8 (0.9)-0.1 2.0-3.0 2.5-3.5
GVA in industry 6.8 9.8-11.0 8.6-9.7 9.3-10.3
GVA in services 7.6 6.0-6.9 6.8-7.8 7.2-8.1
Employment Target for 2014-2016
Indicators Baseline
(2012)
Annual Plan targets
2014 2015 2016
Unemployment rate (in %) 7.0 6.7 - 6.9 6.6 - 6.8 6.5 - 6.7
Underemployment rate(% of
employed) 20.0 19.0 18.0 17.0
a/ cannot be computed due to changes in industry classifications. In January 2012, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) started
to adopt the 2009 Philippine Standard Industrial Classification (PSIC)for the industry codes. Prior to this, the PSA used the 1994
PSIC.
Poverty Incidence Target for
2014-2016
Indicator Baseline
(2012)
Annual Plan Targets
2014 2015 2016
Poverty Incidence (% of
population) 25.2 23.0-25.0 20.0-23.0 18.0-20.0
Multidimensional Poverty (% of
population) 28.2 (2008) 20.0-22.0 18.0-20.0 16.0-18.0
Competitiveness
of productive
sectors
Major infrastructure projects to improve connectivity
between urban centers and regional growth hubs
Category 1: Provinces with the most number
of poor households
• Growth opportunities may be
present but the poor cannot
participate in the growth process
• In-migration; provinces attract
the poor from other places but
are unable to get jobs due to
lack of skills
Category 1: Provinces with the most number
of poor households
Strategy:
• Promote higher growth to create
more employment opportunities
• Upgrade skill sets of the poor,
undertake more aggressive
employment facilitation
• Begin with growth sectors: IT-
BPM, tourism, manufacturing,
and logistics
PROVINCE REGION NO. OF POOR
HOUSEHOLDS
1) Zamboanga del Sur Western Mindanao 170,181
2) Cebu Central Visayas 151,425
3) Pangasinan Ilocos 148,601
4) Negros Occidental Western Visayas 138,664
5) Camarines Sur Bicol 136,208
6) Leyte Eastern Visayas 132,377
7) Iloilo Western Visayas 122,770
8) Sulu ARMM 122,218
9) Quezon CALABARZON 122,139
10) Davao del Sur Davao Region 111,655
Category 2: Provinces where the proportion
of poor households is high
• Limited opportunities for rapid
growth
• Small population, low density,
remote areas
• Weather-related events and
armed conflict
Category 2: Provinces where the proportion
of poor households is high
Strategy:
• Social assistance programs
while economic opportunities
are being created
• Programs that promote
economic and physical mobility
• Peace-building efforts
PROVINCE REGION Poverty
Incidence (%)
Lanao del Sur ARMM 73.8
Maguindanao ARMM 63.7
Eastern Samar Eastern Visatas 63.7
Apayao Cordillera 61.4
Zamboanga del
Norte Western Mindanao 54.4
Camiguin Northern Mindanao 53.6
Saranggani SOCCSKSARGEN 53.2
North Cotabato SOCCSKSARGEN 52.4
Masbate Bicol 51.3
Northern Samar Eastern Visayas 50.2
Category 3. Provinces prone to multiple
hazards
LIST OF PROVINCES
Abra
Agusan del Sur
Albay
Antique
Aurora
Benguet
Bohol
Cagayan
Catanduanes
Cavite
Dinagat Islands
Eastern Samar
Ilocos Norte
Ilocos Sur
Iloilo
Isabela
Laguna
Leyte
Northern Samar
Nueva Vizcaya
Pampanga
Quezon
Quirino
Rizal
Southern Leyte
Surigao del Norte
Surigao del Sur
Zambales
Zamboanga del Sur
Zamboanga Sibugay
Marginally non-poor can slide into
poverty due to shocks or disasters;
poor can slide deeper to poverty
Strategy:
• Risk reduction and mitigation
• Social insurance and social
protection
• Income diversification
Plan Implementation
• Convergence of different government agencies
• Role of the private sector, business, development
partners
• Implementation will be monitored by a NEDA committee
or Cabinet cluster
• NEDA Secretariat will produce annual reports on
progress/accomplishment
17-Feb-14 18
17-Feb-14 19
Salamat at mabuhay tayong lahat.