the perceived impact of climate change on smallholder dairy production in northern malawi

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All Africa Conference on Animal AgricultureAll Africa Conference on Animal Agriculture Commercialization of Livestock Agriculture in Africa: Challenges and opportunities October 25-28, 2010.

THE PERCEIVED IMPACT OF CLIMATE THE PERCEIVED IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON SMALLHOLDER DAIRY CHANGE ON SMALLHOLDER DAIRY

PRODUCTION IN NORTHERN MALAWIPRODUCTION IN NORTHERN MALAWI

Victor KasuloFaculty of Environmental Sciences

Mzuzu UniversityMalawi

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Outline Introduction

Contribution of dairy farming to climate change Vulnerability of dairy farming to climate change Objectives

Materials and Methods Data collection Data type Data analysis

Results and Discussion Perceptions of respondents on change in rainfall

pattern over timeEffect of changes in the rainfall pattern on dairy

farming

Conclusion

Acknowledgement

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Introduction

Contribution of dairy farming to climate change

The livestock sector contributes 18% of total anthropogenic GHG emissions

Global dairy production accounts for 4 percent of the total anthropogenic GHG emissions

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Introduction

Vulnerability of dairy farming to climate change

Warmer and drier conditions increase the likelihood of heat stress in cattle

Changes in rainfall patterns affects pasture growth

Droughts lead to water shortage

Climate change affects disease occurrence

Climate change increases the risk for geographically restricted rare breed populations

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Introduction

Objective

Aanalyze the perceived impact of changes in rainfall patterns on water availability, disease occurrences, pasture production, and in turn on milk production by smallholders farmers in Northern Malawi.

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193,834 cattle

3,782 dairy cattle

700 dairy farmers

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Materials and Methods

Data Collection

Baseline Survey

Covered Mzuzu Agricultural Development Division

Conducted in the three districts of MzimbaRumphi, and Nkhata-Bay

Involved 13 Extension Planning Areas

Targeted 40% of dairy farmers

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Data Type

Perceptions on change in rainfall pattern

Impact of changes in rainfall pattern over: Pasture production,

Disease occurrence,Parasite occurrence, Water availability and Milk production.

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Data Analysis

Descriptive statistics such as percentages and frequencies (SPSS)

Multi-nominal (logistic) regression model

Categorical dependent variable = Milk Production

Categorical independent variables:Water availability, Disease occurrences, and Pasture production

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Results and Discussion

40

32

22

6

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Increased Decreased Constant No idea

Rainfall pattern

Per

cent

age

of r

espo

nden

ts

Perceptions of respondents on change in rainfall pattern over time

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Effect of changes in the rainfall pattern on dairy farming

Rainfall pattern

Respondents (%)

Effect on dairy farming Increased Decreased Constant No idea

Increased Pasture production 73.7 9.6 14.0 2.6

Disease occurrence 37.7 22.8 26.3 13.2

Parasite occurrence 35.1 21.9 30.7 12.3

Water availability 70.2 5.3 21.9 2.6

Milk production 30.7 19.3 12.3 37.7

Decreased Pasture production 13.3 65.6 20.0 1.1

Disease occurrence 23.3 36.7 26.7 13.3




Constant Pasture production 42.9 12.7 42.9 1.6

Disease occurrence 23.8 34.9 27 14.3




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Effect of changes in the rainfall pattern on dairy farming

Change in

Milk

Production

Variable B Std.

Error

Wald Sig. Exp

(B)

95% Confidence

Interval for Exp (B)

Lower

Bound

Upper

Bound

Decrease Intercept -0.821 0.390 4.425 0.035

Water = 0 1.657 0.709 5.465 0.019 5.244 1.307 21.043

Water =1 1.842 0.622 8.768 0.003 6.309 1.864 21.351

Disease =0 -0.676 0.531 1.620 0.203 0.508 0.179 1.441

Disease = 1 -0.420 0.603 0.485 0.486 0.657 0.201 2.144

Pasture = 0 1.427 0.617 5.352 0.021 4.167 1.244 13.964

Pasture = 1 0.246 0.611 0.162 0.687 1.279 0.386 4.233

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Effect of changes in the rainfall pattern on dairy farming (cont.)

Change in

Milk

Production

Variable B Std.

Error

Wald Sig. Exp

(B)

95% Confidence

Interval for Exp

(B)

Lower

Bound

Upper

Bound

Constant Intercept -1.974 0.578 11.670 0.001

Water = 0 -0.326 1.048 0.097 0.756 0.722 0.093 5.630

Water = 1 2.095 0.674 9.660 0.002 8.123 2.168 30.432

Disease = 0 0.387 0.688 0.316 0.574 1.472 0.383 5.666

Disease = 1 1.437 0.710 4.092 0.043 4.207 1.046 16.926

Pasture = 0 1.063 0.724 2.159 0.142 2.896 0.701 11.958

Pasture = 1 -0.654 0.709 0.850 0.357 0.520 0.130 2.088

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Conclusion

Farmers in the study area do not consider climate change as having any significant influence on

dairy farming.

Climate change has negative effects o on livestock production in general and dairy production in particular.

Need further studies in the vulnerability and adaptation of smallholder dairy farmers to

climate change in the area.

Need for development and utilisation of improved breeds and alternative sources of feed.

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Acknowledgement

We thank the Department for International Development (DFID) through the Development Partnership for Higher Education for funding this research.

the perceived impact of climate change on smallholder dairy production in northern malawi

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