the past matters - dalhousie university€¦ · smol (2008) pollution of lakes and rivers: a...
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![Page 1: The Past Matters - Dalhousie University€¦ · Smol (2008) Pollution of lakes and rivers: A paleoenvironmental perspective. 2nd ed. Techniques to Assess Past Environmental Change](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022050109/5f46d43e655e52768d4197ce/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
The Past Matters: Using lake sediments to study the environmental effects of
multiple stressors
John P. SmolPaleoecological Environmental Assessment
and Research Laboratory (PEARL)Dept. Biology, Queen’s University,
Kingston, Ontario, [email protected]
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Important management questions
What were pre-disturbance conditions?
What is the range of natural variability?
Have conditions changed? How? How much? How fast? When? Why?
Can evidence of human activity be detected?
How much improvement can be expected?
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
<1 1 2 3 4 5 6 >6
Length of Study (Years)
Perc
enta
ge (%
)
n = 302
Environmental Monitoring and Assessment - 1981-1993
Smol (2008) Pollution of lakes and rivers: A paleoenvironmental perspective. 2nd ed.
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Techniques to Assess Past Environmental Change
historical records
model hindcasts
natural archives
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Photo: B. Cumming
Paleolimnology: reconstructing lake and river histories using the
physical, chemical, and biological information stored in sediments
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allochthonousmaterial
e.g. pollen grains
autochthonousmaterial
e.g. algae & aquatic insects
Sediments: environmental archives
e.g. soil particles
e.g. aerially transported contaminants
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Continuing Advances
• technology and methodology
• amount of information
• interpretation
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Surface sediment gravity coring
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Close-interval sectioning
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24
68
1012
1416
1820
2224
2628
3032
3436
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
214Bi
137Cs
210Pb
Cor
e D
epth
(cm
)
0
Dating the sedimentary sequences
• 210Pb & 137Cs (radioisotopes)
2002200119991998199619941992199019871985198119761972196519501946193619261920
1900189018701860185618501846
1910
2003200420052006Youngest
Oldest
Con
tinuo
us R
ecor
d
Activity (dpm/g)
~1963
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From the Atmosphere
carbon particles from carbon combustion
fly ash from coal combustion
metals and other pollutants from
industry
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From the Catchmentpollen mineral
particlesinsect
remainsbeetle wing
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From the Aquatic System
diatoms chrysophytes chironomids
Photo: I Walker
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Diatoms• Bacillariophyta• abundant and diverse• excellent environmental indicators• siliceous cell walls (frustules)
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Freshwater diatoms
Photos: K. Laird and B. Cumming; in Smol (2008) Pollution of lakes and rivers: A paleoenvironmental perspective.2nd ed. Blackwell Publ., Oxford.
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Select Study Lake
Collect Indicator Data
Sub-sample Sediments &Isolate Indicator of Interest
Analyze Data
Section & Date Sediment CoreSelect Coring Site & Retrieve Sediment Core
The Paleolimnological Approach
Photos courtesy of B. Cumming, I. Walker, Dell & Leica
210Pb
137Cs
14C
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• Targets
• Trajectories
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“The Real” Users of Water
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What factors can be addressed using paleolimnology?
eutrophicationanoxia and fish habitat
climate changegroundwater qualityriver paleoecology
acidificationfire history
species invasionspeciation / evolution, etc.
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Impacts of Cultural Eutrophication
- hypolimnetic anoxia- fish kills
- P release- ↑ accumulation and decay
- shoreline fouling -↑ plant growth- ↑ algal growth and toxins- taste and odour problems
- presence of undesirable species- aesthetic degradation
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Three lake characteristicswe typically wish to track
1) Lakewater nutrient levels
2) Deepwater oxygen levels
3) Algal and cyanobacterial blooms
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1) Trends in lakewater nutrients
Why not just measure total P in the sediments?
Many pitfalls and largely abandoned ~30 years ago
(this is not to say that sedimentary P has no value in other applications – very important in mass balance studies and determining processes, etc.)
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So we have to use indirect proxy methods that are related to
lakewater total phosphorus (TP)
Research ongoing for over 30 years, but especially last 20 years
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Surface areaDepthDevelopment Total phosphorusTotal nitrogenChlorophyll a
pHSecchi depthTemperatureConductivityOxygenAlkalinityAmmonium
Construction of a Transfer Function
lake surface sediment samples
environmental data
species response curves
Environmental variable (e.g. TP)
sp. 4sp. 1
sp. 2sp. 3 sp. 5 sp. 6
Abun
danc
e of
taxa
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Dixit, S.S., Smol, J.P., et al. 1999. Assessing water quality changes in the lakes of the Northeastern United States using sediment diatoms. Can. J. Fish. Aq. Sci. 56: 131-152.
Regional Scale Diatom Calibration Set
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2) Deepwater oxygen levels?
Use organisms that need oxygen, and live in the deep waters
http://www.nzfreshwater.org/food.html
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Chironomid head capsules as indicators
Chironomus
Chironomus mentum
5 mm
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(Photo: D. Bos)
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Measured VWHO
Infe
rred
VW
HO
Predictive O2 Model Based onAquatic Communities
(modified from Quinlan & Smol 2001)(from Ontario lakes)
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3) Algal and cyanobacterial blooms
Photo Todd Sellers
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Fossil Pigments
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Example #1: The effects of urbanization and shoreline
development on water quality
Clerk, S., Hall, R., Quinlan, R., and Smol, J.P. 2000. Quantitative inferences of past hypolimnetic anoxia and nutrient levels from a Canadian Precambrian Shield lake. J. Paleolimnology 23: 319-336.
Peninsula Lake andthe Deerhurst Resort
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Peninsula Lake, Huntsville, Ont
1867
1885
1870-90
1895
Late-1800s –early-1900s
First pioneers
Railway to area
Development of local industries
Deerhurst Resort
Significant logging
Sewage Treatment
Lake area = 822.9 ha
Mean depth = 9.9 m
Maximum depth = 34.1 m 1972
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Diatoms indicate striking eutrophication and recovery
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Similarly chironomids indicate marked changesin deepwater oxygen levels
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‘Natural’ conditions: Before European settlement in the region
1700
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
0.05.010.015.0
Deep-water oxygen
1700
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0
Phosphorus
Total phosphorus (µg/L) Dissolved oxygen (mg/L)
low high high low
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A decline in water quality
1700
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
0.05.010.015.0
Deep-water oxygen
1700
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0
Phosphorus
Total phosphorus (µg/L) Dissolved oxygen (mg/L)
low high high low
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Turning the corner
1700
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
0.05.010.015.0
Deep-water oxygen
1700
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0
Phosphorus
Total phosphorus (µg/L) Dissolved oxygen (mg/L)
Europeansettlement
sewagetreatment
low high high low
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What factors can be addressed using paleolimnology?
eutrophicationanoxia and fish habitat
climate changegroundwater qualityriver paleoecology
acidificationfire history
species invasionspeciation / evolution, etc.
![Page 41: The Past Matters - Dalhousie University€¦ · Smol (2008) Pollution of lakes and rivers: A paleoenvironmental perspective. 2nd ed. Techniques to Assess Past Environmental Change](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022050109/5f46d43e655e52768d4197ce/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
Acidification: Timing of changes
• Study changes at decadal scale
timing of acidification
• Cape Breton Highlands National Park:
“low” SO42- deposition
6 lakes
• Kejimkujik National Park:
“high” SO42- deposition
8 lakes
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2002
1995
1975
1955
1935
1915
1895
1875
1855
1835
18151800
4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0
Pebble
loggit
ch
4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0
Peska
wa
4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0
Kejimku
jik
4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0
Pesko
wesk
5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5
Big Dam
Wes
t
5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5
Frozen
Oce
an
5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5
Grafton
5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5
Big Dam
East
5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5
Beave
rskin
2002
1995
1975
1955
1935
1915
1895
1875
1855
1835
18151800
4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0
Pebble
loggit
ch
4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0
Peska
wa
4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0
Kejimku
jik
4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0
Pesko
wesk
5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5
Big Dam
Wes
t
5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5
Frozen
Oce
an
5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5
Grafton
5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5
Big Dam
East
5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5
Beave
rskin
5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5
Big Dam
Wes
t
5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5
Frozen
Oce
an
5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5
Grafton
5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5
Big Dam
East
5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5
Beave
rskin
Acidified ~1925
Forest Fire?
~1878
Logging?
CO32-
Acidification ~ 1940
Ginn et al. Hydrobiologia 586: 261-275
Acidification: Timing (Kejimkujik)
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2003
1995
1975
1955
1935
1905
1875
1855
1835
~1800
5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5
Cradle
5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5
Lake
of Is
lands
5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5
Dunda
s #4
5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5
Whit
e Hill
5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5
Deer
5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5
Warr
en
2003
1995
1975
1955
1935
1905
1875
1855
1835
~1800
5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5
Cradle
5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5
Lake
of Is
lands
5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5
Dunda
s #4
5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5
Whit
e Hill
5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5
Deer
5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5
Warr
en
• No acidification trends in 15 of 16 lakes.
• Diatom changes from climatic causes?
Ginn et al. Hydrobiologia 586: 261-275
Acidification: Timing (Cape Breton)
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Acidification: Cape Breton’s Glasgow Lake?
Glasgow Lake:
Rogue signal?
or
Sentinel of acidification?
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0.0-0.250.25-0.51.0-1.252.0-2.253.0-3.254.0-4.245.0-5.256.0-6.257.0-7.258.0-8.259.0-9.25
10.0-10.2511.0-11.2512.0-12.2513.0-13.2514.0-14.2515.0-15.2516.0-16.2517.0-17.2518.0-18.2519.0-19.2520.0-20.2521.0-21.2522.0-22.2523.0-23.3524.0-24.2525.0-25.2526.0-26.2527.0-27.2528.0-28.2528.75-29.029.0-29.25
0 20 40 60
Astrion
ella r
alfsii
var a
merica
na (o
ver 4
5um)
0
Eunoti
a exig
ua
0
Frustul
ia rho
mboide
s
0
Eunoti
a bilu
naris
var m
ucop
hila
0
Aulaco
seira
pergl
abra
0
Eunoti
a bide
ntula
0
Eunoti
a pec
tinali
s var
pecti
nalis
0 20
Brachy
sira b
resbis
sonii
0
Encyo
nema m
inutum
0 20
Aulaco
seira
lirata
0 20 40
Tabell
aria f
loccu
lossa
strai
n IIIp
0 20
Eunoti
a inc
isa
0 20
Aulaco
seira
dista
ns
5.0 5.3 5.6 5.9 6.2 6.5
Diatom
-infer
red pH
-1.0 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0
Diatom
-infer
red lo
g Gran
-alka
linity
-2.0-1.00.01.02.03.0
PCA Axis 1
Site Sco
res
210PbDate
~1400
2003
1980
1935
~1800
1870
~1650
~1200
~1000
Core Depth (cm)
Relative Abundance (%)
0.0-0.250.25-0.51.0-1.252.0-2.253.0-3.254.0-4.245.0-5.256.0-6.257.0-7.258.0-8.259.0-9.25
10.0-10.2511.0-11.2512.0-12.2513.0-13.2514.0-14.2515.0-15.2516.0-16.2517.0-17.2518.0-18.2519.0-19.2520.0-20.2521.0-21.2522.0-22.2523.0-23.3524.0-24.2525.0-25.2526.0-26.2527.0-27.2528.0-28.2528.75-29.029.0-29.25
0 20 40 60
Astrion
ella r
alfsii
var a
merica
na (o
ver 4
5um)
0
Eunoti
a exig
ua
0
Frustul
ia rho
mboide
s
0
Eunoti
a bilu
naris
var m
ucop
hila
0
Aulaco
seira
pergl
abra
0
Eunoti
a bide
ntula
0
Eunoti
a pec
tinali
s var
pecti
nalis
0 20
Brachy
sira b
resbis
sonii
0
Encyo
nema m
inutum
0 20
Aulaco
seira
lirata
0 20 40
Tabell
aria f
loccu
lossa
strai
n IIIp
0 20
Eunoti
a inc
isa
0 20
Aulaco
seira
dista
ns
5.0 5.3 5.6 5.9 6.2 6.5
Diatom
-infer
red pH
-1.0 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0
Diatom
-infer
red lo
g Gran
-alka
linity
-2.0-1.00.01.02.03.0
PCA Axis 1
Site Sco
res
210PbDate
~1400
2003
1980
1935
~1800
1870
~1650
~1200
~1000
210PbDate
~1400
2003
1980
1935
~1800
1870
~1650
~1200
~1000
Core Depth (cm)
Relative Abundance (%)
Acidified ~1925 – but why only this lake?Gerber et al., 2008, Hydrobiologia
Acidification: Cape Breton’s Glasgow Lake
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-0.6 1.0
-1.0
1.0
Gran-alkalinity
PH
TP
ZmaxZmean
Surface Area
Volume
Watershed AreaVolume:Watershed Area
Relative Area
Retention Time
Pre-industrial pH
Mica Hill
Warren
Cradle
Branch
Lake of Islands
Dundas 3
Dundas 4
White Hill
Gull
Indian
Two Island
Glasgow
John Dee
Long
Round
Deer
High volume, slow flushing, very low alkalinty
Critical sulphate load = 0 kg/ha
Sentinel of acidification in Cape Breton
Gerber et al. 2008, Hydrobiologia
Acidification: Cape Breton’s Glasgow Lake?
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What can we learn from these studies?
1) Lake ecosystems can respond quickly (in both directions)
2) Paleolimnology can be used to identify problems, suggest solutions and to monitor improvements
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Many paleolimnological studies were completed around the world, showing eutrophication and acidification were detrimentally affecting lake ecosystems.
However, nothing ever seems to be as simple as it first appears to be.
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The threat of “multiple-stressors”
Be prepared for surprises
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“Aquatic Osteoporosis”: The widespread threat of
calcium decline in fresh watersAdam Jeziorski, N. D. Yan, A.M. Paterson, and John P. Smol
M. A. Turner, D. S. Jeffries, W. Keller, R. C. Weeber, D. K. McNicol, M. E. Palmer, K. McIver, K. Arseneau, B. K. Ginn, and B. F. Cumming
Jeziorski et al. (2008) Science 322: 1374-1377
Lake [Ca] Decline
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Calcium – why do we care?
Alkaline earth metal
Essential nutrient, critical to the survival, development and biogeographic distribution of biota
Ca concentrations are currently falling in many softwater regions of North America and Europe
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Lake [Ca] Decline
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Cal
cium
Con
cent
ratio
n (m
g·L-
1 )
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
(A. Paterson, Ontario MOE)
[Ca] of the Dorset “A” Lakes
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Ca Decline/“Aquatic Osteoporosis”
Declines in lakewater calcium (Ca) concentrations have been observed in many regions of Eastern N.A. and Europe
Due to a lack of baseline data, some of the questions currently being raised are only answerable using paleolimnological techniques
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Mechanism of Ca Decline
AtmosphericDeposition of Ca
MineralWeathering
Forest Growth/Tree Harvesting
Leaching
Inputs Outputs
Exchangeable Soil Calcium
Acid Rain
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Identifying an Indicator for Calcium Thresholds
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Crustacean Zooplankton
Crustacean zooplankton have a direct dependence upon Ca (used as a structural material in the carapace)
Species-specific [Ca] differences (and by extension Ca requirements)
Leave identifiable remains that preserve well in sediments (head-shields, carapaces, ephippia)
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Daphnia – the Miner’s Canary ?
[Calcium]
1.5 mg/L
Daphnia spp.
Bosmina spp.
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3 Paleolimnological Case Studies
Plastic Lake (Ontario) - Received little acid deposition and the lake did not acidify; [Ca] = 1.4 mg/L
Little Wiles Lake (NS) - Naturally acidic; [Ca] = 1.0 mg/L
Big Moose Lake (NY) - Experienced a steady pH decline throughout the 1950s (peak acidification) to 4.5 and has subsequently recovered to >5.5; [Ca] = 1.5 mg/L
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Plastic Lake (ON, Canada)
Located on the Canadian Shield Received little acid deposition and the lake did
not acidify 2006 [Ca] = 1.4 mg/L
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Little Wiles Lake (NS, Canada)
Located off the Canadian Shield Naturally acidic 2006 [Ca] = 1.0 mg/L
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Big Moose Lake (NY, USA)
Located on the Pre-Cambrian Shield in Adirondack Park of NY
Experienced a steady pH decline throughout the 1950s (peak acidification) to 4.5 and has subsequently recovered to >5.5
2006 [Ca] = 1.5 mg/L
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3 acidification scenarios, similar Daphnia responses
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Low calcium levels are now widespread on Shield lakes
About 1/3 of shield lakes surveyed have declined in Ca levels to below the 1.5 mg/L level
About 2/3 are now below the 2.0 mg/L level
n = 770 (Jeziorski et al., 2008)
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Ecosystem Implications:Daphniid Cascade
Algae Daphniids InvertebratePredators
Waterfowl, Fish
X
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Ecosystem Implications:Other Biota
Potentially sensitive biota include: Mussels (shell) Gastropods (shell) Crayfish (exoskeleton) Macrophytes Waterfowl (dietary, egg shells)
Also indirect effects such as: pH resilience Metal toxicity
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The Limnologist’s Canary?
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Climate change:
The new “threat multiplier”
www.ccepr.org/liu/researchCC_en.html
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Environment Canada, SOE Report No. 92-2
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Cape Herschel, Ellesmere Island
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Cape Herschel Field Station; July 9, 2007
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Cooler temperatures
Warmer Temperatures(Smol 1983, 1988)
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Douglas, M.S.V., Smol, J.P., and Blake, W., Jr. 1994. Marked post-18th century environmental change in high Arctic ecosystems.
Science 266: 416-419.
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• unprecedented ecosystem change in ~4 k yr
Douglas et al., 1994, Science
~ 150 yr BP
~ 3900 yr BP
Cape Herschel, Ellesmere I., Elison Lake
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(Douglas, Smol & Blake; Science 1994)
1850 210Pb
Cape Herschel, Ellesmere I., Col Pond
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Douglas and Smol, 1999
PredictedResponsesto ClimateChange
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Warmer:diverse, complex
Cooler:few taxa, simple
Interpretation of data: warming scenario
Douglas and Smol, 1999
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Smol, J.P., Wolfe, A.P., Birks, H.J.B., Douglas, M.S.V., Jones, V.J, Korhola, A., Pienitz, R., Rühland, K., Sorvari, S., Antoniades, D., Brooks, S.J., Fallu, M-A., Hughes, M., Keatley, B.E., Laing, T.E., Michelutti, N., Nazarova, L., Nyman, M., Paterson, A.M., Perren, B., Quinlan, R., Rautio, M., Saulnier-Talbot, É, Siitonen, S., Solovieva, N., and Weckström, J.
Climate-driven regime shifts in the biological communities of arctic lakes.
(2005) Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. 102: 4397- 4402.
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(From Smol, Wolfe et al. 2005, PNAS)
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Climate-Related Ecological Thresholds in High Arctic Lakes and Ponds
Ice and snow cover
Substrates, such as mosses
Thermal stratification
Water chemistry, such as nutrients
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Are similar patterns occurring in temperate lakes?
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(http://www.cccma.ec.gc.ca/hccd/)
Year (AD)
Winter
Win
ter T
empe
ratu
re (º
C)
-20
-18
-16
-14
-12
-10
-8 y = 0.0216x - 16.136
2.3ºC increase in 106 years
Kenora 100-year Temperature Record
February
Febr
uary
Tem
pera
ture
(ºC
)
Year (AD)
-22
-20
-18
-16
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4 y = 0.0437x - 16.561
4.6ºC increase in 106 years
-96º -95º -94º -93º
49º
50º Kenora
Rühland et al submittedEnvironment Canada data
Lake of the Woods
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Whitefish Bay Ice Cover Record“The longer & colder a winter is, the earlier lakes freeze & the later they thaw.”
D. M. Livingstone (2005)
• Ice-free period increased by 27.7 days since 1964
• Corresponds to increased temperatures
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010180
190
200
210
220
230
240
250
260y = 0.6556x + 203.64
Year AD
# ic
e-fr
ee d
ays
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010180
190
200
210
220
230
240
250
260
1
2
3
4
5
6
# ic
e-fr
ee d
ays
Year AD
Temperature (ºC
)R = 0.77
# Ice-free DaysAnnual Temperature
Data from Ministry of Natural Resources, Kenora, Ontario, Canada
Rühland, Paterson & Smol 2008: Global Change Biology
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Heavier diatoms sink to bottom
Stratified water columnMixed water column
Lake water properties & warmingLength of ice-free season- timing of ice-off & ice-on
Timing, duration, strength of the spring freshet & spring overturn
Timing, duration, strength of thermal stratification – depth of mixed epilimnion
Warming & related factors favour small, planktonic Cyclotella taxa
Taxon-specific shifts: Cyclotella-Aulacoseira-Fragilaria
Small planktonic diatoms favoured
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Taxon-specific shift: Cyclotella-Aulacoseira
Aulacoseira islandica
Aulacoseira islandica
Aulacoseira granulata
5 μm
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Whitefish Bay – Reference site Taxon-specific Relationships
Rühland, Paterson, Smol 2008: Global Change Biology
Kenora Temperature Record
Annual Temperature Cyclotella spp Aulacoseira spp
Annu
al T
empe
ratu
re (º
C) R
elative Abundance (%)
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 20201.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
0
10
20
30
40
50
R = 0.73
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 20201.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
10
20
30
40
50
60
Year AD
R = - 0.65
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Rühland, Paterson, Smol 2008: Global Change Biology
1970 1980 1990 2000118
120
122
124
126
128
130
132
134
0
10
20
30
40
50
1970 1980 1990 2000118
120
122
124
126
128
130
132
134
10
20
30
40
50
60Ic
e-O
ut D
ay o
f Yea
r
Relative Abundance (%
)
Year AD
R = - 0.76
R = 0.77
Whitefish Bay – Reference site Taxon-specific Relationships: Ice-out record
Ice-out day of year Cyclotella spp Aulacoseira spp
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How will this affect other algae and cyanobacteria?
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Blue-greens like it hot!
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Stratified and/or less ice
Mixed water column
Stratified and/or less ice:
Exacerbates blooms
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If we are seeing these changes in deep lakes, what is happening to the very shallow lakes?
Large Small
Let’s return to the Cape Herschel High Arctic Ponds
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Based on our paleoenvironmental data, the Cape Herschel High Arctic ponds have been permanent water bodies for thousands of years.
But they have started to change profoundly over the last century or so, consistent with climate warming.
What has happened to these ponds over the last few years? (The warmest years on record in this part of the Arctic.)
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Smol, J.P. and Douglas, M.S.V. 2007. Crossing the final ecological threshold in high Arctic ponds. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 104: 12395-12397.
The final ecological threshold?
July 16, 2007; Cape Herschel
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Smol & Douglas (2007) PNAS 104: 12395-7.
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Camp Pond, 16 July 2007
July 12, 2007
Smol & Douglas (2007) PNAS 104: 12395-7.
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Smol & Douglas (2007) PNAS 104: 12395-7.
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1980’s
2005 - 2009
T ice cover evaporation water levels conductivity
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Smol & Douglas (2007) PNAS 104: 12395-7.
increasedevaporation
Even though average precipitation increasing
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Smol & Douglas (2007) PNAS 104: 12395-7.
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Crossing Ecological Thresholds
permanent ponds ephemeral ponds
larger, deeper ponds shallower, exposed shorelines
(and of course other marked changes in the physical, chemical and biological characteristics of the sites)
ephemeral ponds dry landephemeral ponds dry land
permanent ponds
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2 x CO2
4 x CO2
The Arctic in a “Greenhouse Dominated” World?
Estimated summer temperatures by ca 2090
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http://www.natural-health-information-centre.com/image-files/head-in-sand.jpg
Not really an option
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Lessons from the Past
2) We tend to be overly optimistic –things are generally worse and more complicated than we initially imagined.
1) The recurring patterns of “unintended consequences”
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Limnological Sampling
neolimnology paleolimnology
a continuum of time scales
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HOURS
DAYS
SEASONS
YEARS
DECADES
CENTURIES
MILLENNIA
Paleolimnology: extending the sampling window back in time
From : Smol (2008) Pollution of lakes and rivers: A paleoenvironmental perspective.2nd ed. Blackwell Publ., Oxford