the outlook for energy - cspdigital, sexxonmobil 2012 outlook for energy. avg new car fuel...

The Outlook for Energy:A View to 2040

Vincent Yuskiewicz2012 Outlook Leadership ConferenceAugust 14, 2012

This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.

Energy Demand

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1990 2015 2040

Quadrillion BTUs

Average Growth / Yr.

2010 – 2040

0.9%

Energy DemandQuadrillion BTUs


2010 – 2040

0.9%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1990 2015 20400

3

6

9

12

15

18

21

1990 2015 2040

Global Progress Drives Demand

BillionPopulation GDP

Trillion 2005$


2010 – 2040

0.8%


2010 – 2040

2.9%

0

3

6

9

12

15

1990 2015 2040

MBTU / 2005$ GDPMBTU / 2005$ GDP

-0.9%

-1.9%

Energy per GDP

0

3

6

9

12

15

1990 2015 2040

MBTU / 2005$ GDPMBTU / 2005$ GDPEnergy per GDP

Constant 2010 Level

Demand

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1990 2015 2040

Quadrillion BTUs

Average Growth / Yr. 2010 - 2040

0.9%

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1990 2015 2040

~500 Quads

Quadrillion BTUsDemand

What demand would be without efficiency gains

Global Efficiency Minimizes Demand Growth

ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy

0

25

50

75

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

OECD Efficiency Moderates Demand

Trillion 2005 $OECD GDP

0

50

100

150

200

250

1990 2015 2040

Quadrillion BTUsOECD Demand

North America

Europe OECD

Rest of OECD

North America

Europe OECD

Rest of OECD


Rapidly Expanding Economies Drive Demand

0

100

200

300

400

500

1990 2015 2040

Quadrillion BTUsNon OECD Demand

0

10

20

30

40

50

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Trillion 2005 $Non OECD GDP

China

India

Middle East

Rest of Non OECD

Latin America

Africa

Russia/Caspian

China

India

Middle East

Rest of Non OECD

Latin America

Africa

Russia/Caspian


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Res/Comm Transportation Industrial Electricity Generation

2010

20252040

Quadrillion BTUs

Electricity Generation Leads Growth


0

20

40

60

80

100

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

US Energy Demand and Supply

0

20

40

60

80

100

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

By SectorQuadrillion BTUs

By FuelQuadrillion BTUs

Transportation

Industrial

Electricity Generation

Res/Comm

Oil

Gas

Coal

NuclearBiomass

Other Renewables


Residential / Commercial

40%By 2040, electricity will

fuel 40% of the world’s

residential & commercial

demand.


Residential/Commercial Demand Grows

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

'10 - '40 '10 - '40

Electricity

Other

OECDNon OECD

Fuel GrowthQuadrillion BTUs

Biomass

0

30

60

90

120

150

1990 2015 2040

Quadrillion BTUs

Commercial

Residential

0

30

60

90

120

150

1990 2015 2040

Quadrillion BTUsBy Region

China

OECD

Rest of Non OECD

India & Africa


Industrial

30%Global Industrial

demand grows by 30%

from 2010 to 2040.


0

50

100

150

200

250

1990 2015 2040

Industry Energy Demand Increases

Chemicals

Manufacturing & Industry

Energy Industry

Other

PlasticsFertilizer

Paint

Steel

Automobiles Textiles

Liquid Fuels

CoalNatural Gas

Agriculture

Lubricants Asphalt

Quadrillion BTUs



+80%By 2040, worldwide

electricity demand will be

80% higher.


Electricity Demand Continues to Surge

k TWhGlobal Demand

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Transportation

Industrial

Residential/Commercial

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

United States Demandk TWh

Heavy Industry

Other Industry

Residential

Commercial

Transportation


0

5

10

15

20

Coal Gas Nuclear Wind *0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1990 2015 2040

Electricity Demand Continues to Surge

Quadrillion BTUsFuel Into Electricity Generation

Oil

Gas

Nuclear

Coal

Wind

Renewables$60/ton CO2

2011 cents/kWhBaseload, Startup 2030

$0/ton CO2


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2010 2020 2030 2040-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

'15 '20 '25 '30 '35 '40

U.S. Changing Electricity Generation Fuel Mix

Growth versus 2010 by FuelQuadrillion BTUs

Electricity Generation CO2 EmissionsBillion Tons

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2010 2020 2030 2040

Electricity GenerationQuadrillion BTUs

Coal

Wind & SolarOther Renewables

Nuclear

Gas

Oil


Transportation

90%By 2040, 90% of

transportation will run on

liquid petroleum-based fuels.


0

10

20

30

40

50

1990 2015 20400

10

20

30

40

50

1990 2015 2040

Commercial Transportation Drives Demand Growth

PersonalMBDOE

CommercialMBDOE

Light Duty Vehicles

Aviation

Marine

Rail

Heavy Duty Vehicles


Avg New Car Fuel Efficiency in 2040

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

US Europe China Japan India

On-Road MPG

2010

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

US Europe China Japan India

Avg New Car Fuel Efficiency in 2040On-Road MPG

2010

2020-2025 Target2015 Target

0

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000 2020 2040

Million Vehicles

Rest of OECD

Rest of Non OECD

China

United States

Light Duty Vehicle Fleet by Region

Impact of Global Fleet Shift on Efficiency

0

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000 2020 2040

Million VehiclesLight Duty Vehicle Fleet by Type

Conv. Gasoline

Conv. Diesel

Hybrid

PHV/EVNatural gas/LPG


0 20 40 60 80 100

Total

Vehicle Size

Transmission

Engine

MPG Improvement 2010-2040

Personal Vehicle Efficiency Improves

Percent

Cylinder

Deactivation

Aero-dynamics

Turbo Charging

Camless Valves

Improved Tires

Lightweight Materials

6, 7, 8-Speed Continuously Variable

A/C Efficiency

Stop/Start Full Hybrid Plug-ins & Electric

Body &

Accessories

Hybridization &

Electrification

Automated Manual (AMT)


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

US Transportation Demand & Fleet Shift

0

5

10

15

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

TransportationMBDOE

Light Duty Vehicle FleetMillion Cars

Light Duty

Aviation

Heavy Duty

Marine

Conv. Diesel

Hybrid

PHV/EV

CNG/LPG

Rail

Conv. Gasoline


0

10

20

30

40

50

1990 2015 20400

10

20

30

40

50

1990 2015 2040

Transportation Fuel Demand Shifts to Diesel

MBDOEOECD

Gasoline

Ethanol

Diesel

Biodiesel

Jet Fuel

Fuel OilOther

MBDOENon OECD


0

50

100

150

200

250

Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Biomass/Other Wind / Solar /Biofuels

Hydro / Geo

0.7%

Quadrillion BTUs

Energy Mix Continues to Evolve

2010

2040

-0.2%

1.6%

2.2% 0.3%

6.0% 1.6%

Average Growth / Yr. 2010 - 2040

0.9%


Supply

By 2040

60%of global demand will be supplied by oil & gas.


1930s

1940s 1950s

1960s

1970s

1980s

1990s

2000s

0

20

40

60

80

100

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Global Oil Production by Discovery Date

Discovered before 1930

MBDOE

Source: ExxonMobil estimates based on Wood Mackenzie Limited & Nehring Associates data


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

MBDOELiquids Supply

Liquids Supply Continues to Diversify

Conventional Crude and Condensate

Oil Sands

NGLs

Deepwater

Tight Oil

Biofuels

0

1

2

3

4

5

2040

Remaining Resource

Cumulative Production

TBOResource *

* Source: Total resource from IHS Inc. The use of this content was authorized in advance by IHS.


0

5

10

15

20

25

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

~11Imports*

Liquids Demand

Crude & Condensate

Other Petroleum

U.S. Liquids Demand Declines

U.S. Liquids Supply and DemandMBDOE

Biofuels

* Canada and Mexico are leading suppliers; provide ~30% of imports

~10~9 ~8

~7


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

~9Imports

Liquids Demand

Crude & Condensate

Other Petroleum

North America Liquids Supply Grows

MBDOE

Biofuels~8

~6 ~4~2

North America Liquids Supply and Demand

Canadian Oil Sands

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

North America*

Europe OECD

Asia Pacific

Latin America

Africa

Middle East

1000 TCF

Conventional

Unconventional

1.3

4.1

2.6

2.3

8.1

4.9

4.8

Global Gas Resource

Source: IEA; * Includes Europe Non OECD

•World: ~250 years coverage at current demand

•Large unconventional gains anticipated

World

Russia/Caspian*


0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

2000 2020 20400

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

2000 2020 20400

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

2000 2020 2040

Gas Supply Grows and Diversifies

BCFDUnited States

Local Production

Unconventional

LNG

BCFDEurope Asia Pacific

BCFD

Conventional

Pipeline


0

20

40

60

80

100

Energy Use Evolves Over Time

PercentGlobal Percent Mix of Fuels

1800 1900 20001850 1950

Biomass

Coal

Oil

Gas

HydroNuclear

Other Renewables

Source: Smil, Energy Transitions (1800-1960)

2040

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2.0

Demographic Shifts Alter Demand ProfileBillion

OECD China India

Age 0 – 14

Age 15 – 64

Age 65+

Africa

2010 2040

Source: World Bank

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2000 2010 2020 2030 20400

40

80

120

160

200

240

2000 2010 2020 2030 20400.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

United States Energy Trends

BillionPopulation GDP Energy Demand

Trillion 2005$ Quadrillion BTUs


2010 – 2040

0.7%


2010 – 2040

2.4%


2010 – 2040

-0.2%

0

50

100

150

200

250

1990 2015 2040

Quadrillion BTUsBy Region

China

OECD

Rest of Non OECD

Industrial Fuel Demand Diversifies

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

'10 - '40 '10 - '40

Electricity

Oil

OECDNon OECD

Fuel GrowthQuadrillion BTUs

Coal

Gas

Other

India & Africa

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

US Sector Demand

IndustrialQuadrillion BTUs

Other

Heavy Industry

Chemicals

Energy Industry

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

21

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Res/CommQuadrillion BTUs

Residential

Commercial

Global Capacity

Global Electricity Generation Mix Evolves

k TWhBy Generation

Wind & Solar

Oil

Coal

Nuclear

Other Renewables

Gas

Global Capacity Utilized

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

'10 '40 '10 '40 '10 '40

GW

Wind

Solar

Nuclear

0

10

20

30

40

1990 2015 2040

CO2 Emissions Plateau

Billion TonsBy Region

OECD

Rest of Non OECD

India & Africa

China

0

5

10

15

20

U.S. Europe China India

Tons per PersonEmissions per Capita

2010

2025

2040

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

US Energy-Related CO2 Emissions

By FuelBillion Tons

Liquids

Gas

Coal

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

By SectorBillion Tons

Transportation


Industrial

Res/Comm

the outlook for energy - cspdigital, sexxonmobil 2012 outlook for energy. avg new car fuel...

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