The Outlook for Energy:A View to 2040
Vincent Yuskiewicz2012 Outlook Leadership ConferenceAugust 14, 2012
This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.
Energy Demand
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1990 2015 2040
Quadrillion BTUs
Average Growth / Yr.
2010 – 2040
0.9%
Energy DemandQuadrillion BTUs
Average Growth / Yr.
2010 – 2040
0.9%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990 2015 20400
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
1990 2015 2040
Global Progress Drives Demand
BillionPopulation GDP
Trillion 2005$
Average Growth / Yr.
2010 – 2040
0.8%
Average Growth / Yr.
2010 – 2040
2.9%
0
3
6
9
12
15
1990 2015 2040
MBTU / 2005$ GDPMBTU / 2005$ GDP
-0.9%
-1.9%
Energy per GDP
0
3
6
9
12
15
1990 2015 2040
MBTU / 2005$ GDPMBTU / 2005$ GDPEnergy per GDP
Constant 2010 Level
Demand
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1990 2015 2040
Quadrillion BTUs
Average Growth / Yr. 2010 - 2040
0.9%
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1990 2015 2040
~500 Quads
Quadrillion BTUsDemand
What demand would be without efficiency gains
Global Efficiency Minimizes Demand Growth
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
25
50
75
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
OECD Efficiency Moderates Demand
Trillion 2005 $OECD GDP
0
50
100
150
200
250
1990 2015 2040
Quadrillion BTUsOECD Demand
North America
Europe OECD
Rest of OECD
North America
Europe OECD
Rest of OECD
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
Rapidly Expanding Economies Drive Demand
0
100
200
300
400
500
1990 2015 2040
Quadrillion BTUsNon OECD Demand
0
10
20
30
40
50
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Trillion 2005 $Non OECD GDP
China
India
Middle East
Rest of Non OECD
Latin America
Africa
Russia/Caspian
China
India
Middle East
Rest of Non OECD
Latin America
Africa
Russia/Caspian
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Res/Comm Transportation Industrial Electricity Generation
2010
20252040
Quadrillion BTUs
Electricity Generation Leads Growth
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
20
40
60
80
100
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
US Energy Demand and Supply
0
20
40
60
80
100
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
By SectorQuadrillion BTUs
By FuelQuadrillion BTUs
Transportation
Industrial
Electricity Generation
Res/Comm
Oil
Gas
Coal
NuclearBiomass
Other Renewables
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
Residential / Commercial
40%By 2040, electricity will
fuel 40% of the world’s
residential & commercial
demand.
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
Residential/Commercial Demand Grows
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
'10 - '40 '10 - '40
Electricity
Other
OECDNon OECD
Fuel GrowthQuadrillion BTUs
Biomass
0
30
60
90
120
150
1990 2015 2040
Quadrillion BTUs
Commercial
Residential
0
30
60
90
120
150
1990 2015 2040
Quadrillion BTUsBy Region
China
OECD
Rest of Non OECD
India & Africa
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
Industrial
30%Global Industrial
demand grows by 30%
from 2010 to 2040.
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
50
100
150
200
250
1990 2015 2040
Industry Energy Demand Increases
Chemicals
Manufacturing & Industry
Energy Industry
Other
PlasticsFertilizer
Paint
Steel
Automobiles Textiles
Liquid Fuels
CoalNatural Gas
Agriculture
Lubricants Asphalt
Quadrillion BTUs
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
Electricity Generation
+80%By 2040, worldwide
electricity demand will be
80% higher.
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
Electricity Demand Continues to Surge
k TWhGlobal Demand
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Transportation
Industrial
Residential/Commercial
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
United States Demandk TWh
Heavy Industry
Other Industry
Residential
Commercial
Transportation
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
5
10
15
20
Coal Gas Nuclear Wind *0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1990 2015 2040
Electricity Demand Continues to Surge
Quadrillion BTUsFuel Into Electricity Generation
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Coal
Wind
Renewables$60/ton CO2
2011 cents/kWhBaseload, Startup 2030
$0/ton CO2
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2010 2020 2030 2040-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
'15 '20 '25 '30 '35 '40
U.S. Changing Electricity Generation Fuel Mix
Growth versus 2010 by FuelQuadrillion BTUs
Electricity Generation CO2 EmissionsBillion Tons
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2010 2020 2030 2040
Electricity GenerationQuadrillion BTUs
Coal
Wind & SolarOther Renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
Transportation
90%By 2040, 90% of
transportation will run on
liquid petroleum-based fuels.
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
10
20
30
40
50
1990 2015 20400
10
20
30
40
50
1990 2015 2040
Commercial Transportation Drives Demand Growth
PersonalMBDOE
CommercialMBDOE
Light Duty Vehicles
Aviation
Marine
Rail
Heavy Duty Vehicles
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
Avg New Car Fuel Efficiency in 2040
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
US Europe China Japan India
On-Road MPG
2010
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
US Europe China Japan India
Avg New Car Fuel Efficiency in 2040On-Road MPG
2010
2020-2025 Target2015 Target
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
1750
2000 2020 2040
Million Vehicles
Rest of OECD
Rest of Non OECD
China
United States
Light Duty Vehicle Fleet by Region
Impact of Global Fleet Shift on Efficiency
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
1750
2000 2020 2040
Million VehiclesLight Duty Vehicle Fleet by Type
Conv. Gasoline
Conv. Diesel
Hybrid
PHV/EVNatural gas/LPG
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0 20 40 60 80 100
Total
Vehicle Size
Transmission
Engine
MPG Improvement 2010-2040
Personal Vehicle Efficiency Improves
Percent
Cylinder
Deactivation
Aero-dynamics
Turbo Charging
Camless Valves
Improved Tires
Lightweight Materials
6, 7, 8-Speed Continuously Variable
A/C Efficiency
Stop/Start Full Hybrid Plug-ins & Electric
Body &
Accessories
Hybridization &
Electrification
Automated Manual (AMT)
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
US Transportation Demand & Fleet Shift
0
5
10
15
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
TransportationMBDOE
Light Duty Vehicle FleetMillion Cars
Light Duty
Aviation
Heavy Duty
Marine
Conv. Diesel
Hybrid
PHV/EV
CNG/LPG
Rail
Conv. Gasoline
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
10
20
30
40
50
1990 2015 20400
10
20
30
40
50
1990 2015 2040
Transportation Fuel Demand Shifts to Diesel
MBDOEOECD
Gasoline
Ethanol
Diesel
Biodiesel
Jet Fuel
Fuel OilOther
MBDOENon OECD
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
50
100
150
200
250
Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Biomass/Other Wind / Solar /Biofuels
Hydro / Geo
0.7%
Quadrillion BTUs
Energy Mix Continues to Evolve
2010
2040
-0.2%
1.6%
2.2% 0.3%
6.0% 1.6%
Average Growth / Yr. 2010 - 2040
0.9%
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
Supply
By 2040
60%of global demand will be supplied by oil & gas.
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
1930s
1940s 1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
0
20
40
60
80
100
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Global Oil Production by Discovery Date
Discovered before 1930
MBDOE
Source: ExxonMobil estimates based on Wood Mackenzie Limited & Nehring Associates data
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
MBDOELiquids Supply
Liquids Supply Continues to Diversify
Conventional Crude and Condensate
Oil Sands
NGLs
Deepwater
Tight Oil
Biofuels
0
1
2
3
4
5
2040
Remaining Resource
Cumulative Production
TBOResource *
* Source: Total resource from IHS Inc. The use of this content was authorized in advance by IHS.
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
5
10
15
20
25
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
~11Imports*
Liquids Demand
Crude & Condensate
Other Petroleum
U.S. Liquids Demand Declines
U.S. Liquids Supply and DemandMBDOE
Biofuels
* Canada and Mexico are leading suppliers; provide ~30% of imports
~10~9 ~8
~7
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
~9Imports
Liquids Demand
Crude & Condensate
Other Petroleum
North America Liquids Supply Grows
MBDOE
Biofuels~8
~6 ~4~2
North America Liquids Supply and Demand
Canadian Oil Sands
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
North America*
Europe OECD
Asia Pacific
Latin America
Africa
Middle East
1000 TCF
Conventional
Unconventional
1.3
4.1
2.6
2.3
8.1
4.9
4.8
Global Gas Resource
Source: IEA; * Includes Europe Non OECD
•World: ~250 years coverage at current demand
•Large unconventional gains anticipated
World
Russia/Caspian*
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
2000 2020 20400
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
2000 2020 20400
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
2000 2020 2040
Gas Supply Grows and Diversifies
BCFDUnited States
Local Production
Unconventional
LNG
BCFDEurope Asia Pacific
BCFD
Conventional
Pipeline
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
20
40
60
80
100
Energy Use Evolves Over Time
PercentGlobal Percent Mix of Fuels
1800 1900 20001850 1950
Biomass
Coal
Oil
Gas
HydroNuclear
Other Renewables
Source: Smil, Energy Transitions (1800-1960)
2040
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
Demographic Shifts Alter Demand ProfileBillion
OECD China India
Age 0 – 14
Age 15 – 64
Age 65+
Africa
2010 2040
Source: World Bank
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2000 2010 2020 2030 20400
40
80
120
160
200
240
2000 2010 2020 2030 20400.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
United States Energy Trends
BillionPopulation GDP Energy Demand
Trillion 2005$ Quadrillion BTUs
Average Growth / Yr.
2010 – 2040
0.7%
Average Growth / Yr.
2010 – 2040
2.4%
Average Growth / Yr.
2010 – 2040
-0.2%
0
50
100
150
200
250
1990 2015 2040
Quadrillion BTUsBy Region
China
OECD
Rest of Non OECD
Industrial Fuel Demand Diversifies
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
'10 - '40 '10 - '40
Electricity
Oil
OECDNon OECD
Fuel GrowthQuadrillion BTUs
Coal
Gas
Other
India & Africa
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
US Sector Demand
IndustrialQuadrillion BTUs
Other
Heavy Industry
Chemicals
Energy Industry
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Res/CommQuadrillion BTUs
Residential
Commercial
Global Capacity
Global Electricity Generation Mix Evolves
k TWhBy Generation
Wind & Solar
Oil
Coal
Nuclear
Other Renewables
Gas
Global Capacity Utilized
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
'10 '40 '10 '40 '10 '40
GW
Wind
Solar
Nuclear
0
10
20
30
40
1990 2015 2040
CO2 Emissions Plateau
Billion TonsBy Region
OECD
Rest of Non OECD
India & Africa
China
0
5
10
15
20
U.S. Europe China India
Tons per PersonEmissions per Capita
2010
2025
2040
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
US Energy-Related CO2 Emissions
By FuelBillion Tons
Liquids
Gas
Coal
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
By SectorBillion Tons
Transportation
Electricity Generation
Industrial
Res/Comm