the new global world order what the emergence of china, india and brazil means for you john n....
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THE NEW GLOBAL WORLD ORDERWhat The Emergence of China, India and Brazil Means for You
John N. Doggett, JD, MBA, Senior LecturerGlobal Management, Entrepreneurship & Sustainable Energy
McCombs School of BusinessSenior Research Fellow, IC2 Institute
University of Texas at [email protected] www.jndoggett.com
November 12, 2010
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We Are In The Eye of a S.I.P.
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Strategic Inflection Points Are Scary
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Deep Water Horizon
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27,000 Abandoned Wells . . .
. .
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Who is the Enemy?
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IT’S THE ECONOMY, STUPID!Four Words Say It All
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Deficits Forever . . . ?
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Greece is Just The Beginning
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The World Is Upside Down
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The Worst Job Loss Since WW II
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What Will We Make in the Future?
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If One Fails To Learn From History
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EMERGING FROM THE MISTRegaining Their Place in History
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At the End of WW II
• Europe and Asia had suffered unimaginable destruction.
• Most of the factories of our competitors had been destroyed.
• For a brief period in history, American manufacturing firms were the only game in town.
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• We assumed that Third World Countries would always be dirt poor colonies.
• We assumed that Third World Countries would never be able to produce innovative products that could compete with our products.
• We Were Wrong On Both Counts.
Assume is a Very Dangerous Word
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Be Careful What You Wish For
• We told the world that our way of life was better than Communism or Socialism.
• CNN and Hollywood showed the world an irresistible vision of American Life.
• Then the Unthinkable happened.– On November 9, 1989, the Berlin Wall Fell– On Christmas Day, 1991, the USSR ceased to exist.
• We had won the Cold War.• And most of the world wanted to live like US.
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Birth of the BRICs
• In 2001, as the Internet Bubble was collapsing and the stock market was imploding, Goldman Sachs predicted that four countries would dominate global economic activity in the 21st Century.
• Brazil• Russia• India• China
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The Axis of the Future
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Is Goldman Sachs Crazy?• 6,100% Annual Inflation (1994)
• Collapse of the Ruble (1998)
• Two Weeks of Foreign Reserves (1991)
• The Cultural Revolution (1966-1976)
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Largest Countries By Population1. China 1,330,141,295 (slightly smaller than the US)
2. India 1,173,108,018 (slightly more than 1/3 the size of the US)
3. United States 310,232,863 (6.25% of the earth’s land mass = 424,378,888)
4. Indonesia 242,968,342 (slightly less than 3X the size of Texas = 25 million)
5. Brazil 201,103,330 (slightly smaller than the US)
6. Pakistan 184,404,791 (slightly less than 2X size of California = 37 million)
7. Bangladesh 156,118,464 (slightly smaller than Iowa = 3 million)
8. Nigeria 152,217,341 (slightly more than twice the size of California)
9. Russia 139,390,205 (approximately 1.8 times the size of the US )
10. Japan 126,804,205 (slightly smaller than California)
11. Mexico 112,468,855 (slightly less than three times the size of Texas)
12. Philippines 99,900,177 (slightly larger than Arizona = 6.6 million)
13. Vietnam 89,571,130 (slightly larger than New Mexico = 2 million)
CIA World Factbook –November 11, 2010
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National GDP in 2009 (purchasing power parity)
Country GDP 2009 Growth %1. United States $ 14,140,000,000,000 - 2.6%2. China $ 8,748,000,000,000 9.1%3. Japan $ 4,150,000,000,000 - 5.3%4. India $ 3,570,000,000,000 7.4%5. Germany $ 2,810,000,000,000 - 4.9%6. United Kingdom $ 2,128,000,000,000 - 4.9%7. Russia $ 2,110,000,000,000 - 7.9%8. France $ 2,097,000,000,000 - 2.5%9. Brazil $ 2,013,000,000,000 - 0.2%10. Italy $ 1,739,000,000,000 - 5.1%11. Mexico $ 1,465,000,000,000 - 6.5%12. South Korea $ 1,364,000,000,000 0.2%13. Spain $ 1,362,000,000,000 - 3.6%14. Canada $ 1,279,000,000,000 - 2.5%
CIA World Factbook – November 11, 2010
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Elephants Emerging from the Mist• Total World Population = 6,768,181,146• BRIC Population = 2,843,742,848 (42%)
• Total World Land Area = 174,814,000 sq. km. (- oceans)
• BRIC Land Area = 38,471,715 (22%)
• Total World Gross Domestic Product = $58.15 Trillion (Official Exchange Rate)
• Total World Gross Domestic Product = $69.98 Trillion (Purchasing Power Parity) (p.p.p.)
• BRIC Gross Domestic Product (p.p.p.) = $ 16.44 Trillion (23.5%)
Source: CIA World Factbook – November 11, 2010