The micro-geography of UK demographic change 1991-2001

Paul NormanSchool of Geography, University of Leeds

understanding population trends and processes

Small Research Grant: Oct 05 to Sep 07ESRC RES-163-25-0012 for 2005-07 @ 40%

The micro-geography of UK demographic change 1991-2001

Aim• Quantify, map & analyse changes in population size and social characteristics occurring in UK’s small geographical areas between the 1991 and 2001 Censuses

Population change• Which demographic components account for change? Balance between natural change & migration change• Is the population ageing evenly across space?

Area characteristics change• Are areas becoming more or less deprived over time?• Has health improved in areas now less deprived?

Technical challenges: consistency across UK & over time

1991 & 2001 mid-year small area populations not comparable

To estimate a 1991 base population:• Adjust populations to mid-year & a consistent geography• Allow for changed view of 1991 Census undercount

To calculate area deprivation:• Create consistent variables by geography & definition• Ensure 1991 & 2001 measures are comparable

For ‘small areas’• 7,958 wards in England, 881 wards in Wales• 1,010 postal sectors in Scotland, 582 wards in Northern Ireland

Re-estimating mid-year 1991 populations

1991-2001 population change

Population change

Natural change

Net migration

1991-2001 population change

Change cf. natural change

Change cf. net migration

1991 & 2001 Populations

OPCS classification: districts• London• Metropolitan Cities• Non-Metropolitan Cities• Industrial Districts• Districts with New Towns • Resort, Port & Retirement• Accessible & Remoter Urban• Accessible & Remoter Rural

Deprivation: wards

• Categorised into quintiles

Hierarchical StratificationWard deprivation within area type

1991-2001 population change

UK population change: 1991-2001

-300000

-200000

-100000

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

5Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

5Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

5Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

5Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

5Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

5Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

5Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

5

London MetropolitanCities

Non-Metropolitan

Cities

IndustrialDistricts

Districts withNew Towns

Resort Port&

Retirement

Accessible &Remoter

Urban

Accessible &Remoter

Rural

Pop

ulat

ion

chan

ge

1991-2001 components of change

UK population change: 1991-2001

-400000

-300000

-200000

-100000

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

5Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

5Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

5Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

5Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

5Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

5Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

5Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

5

London MetropolitanCities

Non-Metropolitan

Cities

IndustrialDistricts

Districts withNew Towns

Resort Port&

Retirement

Accessible &Remoter

Urban

Accessible &Remoter

Rural

Natural Change Net Migration

Pop

ulat

ion

chan

ge

Are areas becoming more or less deprived over time?

Use of area characteristics measuresCross-sectional research

• Allocation of funding

• Business marketing

• Deprivation relationship with health

Time-series: deprivation measures

• Are areas becoming more or less deprived over time?

• Has health improved in areas now less deprived?

Classifying of areasProblems when comparing areas at two or more time points

Input variables• Availability, definition and categorisation• Applicability over time

Geography• Boundary change

Method of classification• Applicability over time

Need to compare like with like & need consistency of information, geography & method• Official IMDs are time-point & country specific

Calculating comparable deprivationTownsend Index: comparable across UK & time

Input variables for: c.10,400 small areas in both 1991 & 2001, deprivation relative to National 1991 & 2001 average

National rates

Unemployment No carNon-home

ownersOvercrowding

1991 8.73 28.41 31.25 2.04

2001 3.13 22.97 28.90 1.53

Avg. 5.93 25.69 30.08 1.78

zscore

0 26

5% 593

358.

.

.

zscore

054

4% 593

358.

.

.

Example area unemployment

Deprivation change

Townsend scores: easing overall

England EnglandWales WalesScotland ScotlandNorthern Ireland

Northern Ireland

1991 2001

Deprivation change

Townsend Index: comparable across UK & time

Deprivation & mortality

25

50

75

100

125

150Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

5Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

5Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

5Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

5Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

5Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

5Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

5Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

5

London MetropolitanCities

Non-Metropolitan

Cities

IndustrialDistricts

Districts withNew Towns

Resort Port &Retirement

Accessible &Remoter

Urban

Accessible &Remoter

Rural

SMR 91 SMR 01

Sta

nda

rdis

ed R

atio

Deprivation & LLTI

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

5Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

5Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

5Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

5Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

5Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

5Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

5Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

5

London MetropolitanCities

Non-Metropolitan

Cities

IndustrialDistricts

Districts withNew Towns

Resort Port &Retirement

Accessible &Remoter

Urban

Accessible &Remoter

Rural

SIR 91 SIR 01

Sta

nda

rdis

ed R

atio

Deprivation change & mortality

50

75

100

125

150L

ess

de

pri

ved

Sa

me

/Mo

red

ep

rive

d

Le

ssd

ep

rive

d

Sa

me

/Mo

red

ep

rive

d

Le

ssd

ep

rive

d

Sa

me

/Mo

red

ep

rive

d

Le

ssd

ep

rive

d

Sa

me

/Mo

red

ep

rive

d

Le

ssd

ep

rive

d

Sa

me

/Mo

red

ep

rive

d

Le

ssd

ep

rive

d

Sa

me

/Mo

red

ep

rive

d

Le

ssd

ep

rive

d

Sa

me

/Mo

red

ep

rive

d

Le

ssd

ep

rive

d

Sa

me

/Mo

red

ep

rive

d

London MetropolitanCities

Non-Metropolitan

Cities

IndustrialDistricts

Districtswith New

Towns

Resort Port&

Retirement

Accessible& Remoter

Urban

Accessible& Remoter

Rural

Sta

nda

rdis

ed R

atio

Deprivation change & LLTI

50

75

100

125

150L

ess

de

pri

ved

Sa

me

/Mo

red

ep

rive

d

Le

ssd

ep

rive

d

Sa

me

/Mo

red

ep

rive

d

Le

ssd

ep

rive

d

Sa

me

/Mo

red

ep

rive

d

Le

ssd

ep

rive

d

Sa

me

/Mo

red

ep

rive

d

Le

ssd

ep

rive

d

Sa

me

/Mo

red

ep

rive

d

Le

ssd

ep

rive

d

Sa

me

/Mo

red

ep

rive

d

Le

ssd

ep

rive

d

Sa

me

/Mo

red

ep

rive

d

Le

ssd

ep

rive

d

Sa

me

/Mo

red

ep

rive

d

London MetropolitanCities

Non-Metropolitan

Cities

IndustrialDistricts

Districtswith New

Towns

Resort Port&

Retirement

Accessible& Remoter

Urban

Accessible& Remoter

Rural

Sta

nda

rdis

ed R

atio

Summary: change 1991-2001

Population • In London, population gain in more deprived areas, due to natural change gain• Metropolitan areas natural change gain, but losing population due to net migration loss• Less deprived areas elsewhere growing, largely through net migration gain• Biggest growth in accessible urban & rural areas

Deprivation• Relative deprivation eased during the decade • Mortality & LLTI relate more strongly to deprivation than to larger area type with mortality improving over the decade• Generally, areas have better health when becoming less deprived

UPTAP-related aspects• First funded research, managing this to ‘end of award’

• Networking & community

• 3 UPTAP annual meetings; 11 presentations during & 6 after funding period

• 1 paper published; 2 in revision; 2 in preparation; many ideas

• UPTAP Research Findings (yep, one day, Stillers!), UPTAP book

• Other researchers using data outputs (e.g. Champion, Dorling, Rowan, Adams)

• Ongoing work on UPTAP(2) large grant

understanding population trends and processes

Small Research Grant: Oct 05 to Sep 07ESRC RES-163-25-0012 for 2005-07 @ 40%