Population Geography: WHERE AND WHY?

Distribution of World Population Population Statistics Population Pyramids Demographic Transition Theory Population Control Overpopulation (Malthus and Neo-

Malthusians

3 important things

More people than ever before

World population has increased at a faster rate after 1950’s than ever before

AND almost all population growth is concentrated in less developed countries (LDC’s)

Density

Number of people occupying an area of land– Helps geographers to describe the

distribution of people comparison to available resources

– Arithmetic and physiological

Arithmetic Density – the total number of people per a unit of land area. (total # of people / total land area) AKA population density

U.S. 300 million people / 3.7 million square miles = about 80 people per square mile

Physiological Density – the total number of people per a unit of arable (farmable) land. (U.S. 445 persons per square mile

World and Country Population Totals

Distribution and Structure: 3/4 of people live on 5% of earth's surface!

Total: 7 billion on planet as of 2011

Current Population counter: http://www.worldometers.info/

Five most populous regions and countriesREGION POP. COUNTRY POP.

East Asia 1.5 billion China1.254 billion South Asia 1.2 billion India 986 million Europe 750 million U.S. 274 million SE Asia 500 million Indonesia 206 million East N. Am. 120 million Brazil 168 million

Ecumene

Expansion of the Ecumene 5000 BC - AD 1900

Ecumene, or portion of the earth’s surface that has permanent human settlement has expanded to cover most of the earth’s land area.

The “inhabited world!”

Crude means: looking at society as a whole!

Total number of live births in a year for every 1,000 people

Total number of deaths in a year for every 1,000 people

Natural Increase Rate: subtract CDR from CBR (CBR – CDR) after converting to a %

Birth Control Programs One family/one child

policies– Female infanticide– Social compensation fees

Sterilization Loss of status Termination

healthcare/food coupons

Free birth control Increased literacy

World Death Rates

Infectious diseases– HIV/AIDS– SARS

Degenerative diseases– Obesity– Tobacco use

Epidemiological transition

Doubling TimesThe doubling time is the number of years before a population will be twice as large as it is today.

World = 50U.S. = 34MDC = 543LDC = 40Honduras = 22Belize = 19Denmark = 700Russia = never?

Total Fertility Rate (TFR)

PalestinianTerritories

Fertility Rate

1975-1980 7.39

1980-1985 7.00

1985-1990 6.43

1990-1995 6.46

1995-2000 5.99

2000-2005 5.57Amount of children a women will have on average during her child bearing years.

High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek “insurance” for the loss of children. Africa Fertility

Rate

1975-1980 6.60

1980-1985 6.45

1985-1990 6.11

1990-1995 5.67

1995-2000 5.26

2000-2005 4.97

U.K.Total

fertility rate

1975-1980 1.72

1980-1985 1.80

1985-1990 1.81

1990-1995 1.78

1995-2000 1.70

2000-2005 1.66

Infant Mortality

Adults and Children Living with AIDS, 2004

Demographic Transition Modelwww.prb.org/pdf04/transitionsinWorldPop.pdf (check out pg 8)

The demographic transition consists of four stages, which move from high birth and death rates, to declines first in death rates then in birth rates, and finally to a stage of low birth and death rates. Population growth is most rapid in the second stage.

The Demographic Transition

The Demographic Transition– 1. Low growth – 3. Moderate growth– 2. High growth – 4. Low growth

Population pyramids– Age distribution– Sex ratio

Countries in different stages of demographic transition

Demographic transition and world population growth

Demographic Transition Model Stage one

– Crude birth/death rate high– Fragile population

Stage two– Lower death rates– Infant mortality rate– Natural increase high

Stage three– Indicative of richer developed countries– Higher standards of living/education

Stage Four– CBR and CDR are at equilibrium or almost =– ZPG= Zero Pop. Growth – Most Northern and Western Euro countries

Rapid Growth in Cape Verde

Cape Verde, which entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in about 1950, is experiencing rapid population growth. Its population history reflects the

impacts of famines and out-migration.

Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the

1930s, and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s.

Low Growth in Denmark

Denmark has been in stage 4 of the demographic transition since the 1970s, with little population growth since then. Its population pyramid shows increasing numbers of elderly and few children.

Pre-industrial CBR and CDR

high and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters.

Population is a constant and young pop.

Stage One

Stage Two Death rates

drop… improvements in food supply, sanitation, etc.

Birth rates do not drop… causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population.

Stage Three Birth rates fall

– Access to contraception– Increase in wages– Urbanization– Move away from

subsistence agriculture.– Education of women

Population growth begins to level off

Stage Four

Low birth AND low death.

Birth rates may drop below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth.

Large group born during stage 2 ages… creates a burden on the smaller working population.

Soooo….

A cycle in a way from 1 to 4

Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are high… in Stage 4 they are low.

Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1

The Demographic Transition in England

Now Stage 4 Historically

– Stage 1 – Low growth until 1750

– Stage 2 – High growth 1750-1880

– Stage 3 – Moderate growth 1880-early 1970’s

– Stage 4 – Early 1970’s-present. Long time below the 2.1 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement.

Problems with the Demographic Transition

Model

• based on European experience, assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization

• many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth

• on the other hand, some countries “stuck” in stage 2 or stage 3

• it is not an exact science!!!!!!!! (Possible Stage 5????)

Remember… Demographic Transition is

not only dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out migration!!!!

Epidemiologic Transition Stages 1 and 2

– Infectious and parasitic disease.

– “natural checks” according to Malthus

Stages 3 and 4– Degenerative and human

created disease.– Increase in chronic

disorders associated with aging (heart attack, etc)

Possible Stage 5– Reemergence of infectious

and parasitic disease.

Population Shift

Overpopulation When consumption of

natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources.

Beijing, China

Tokyo, Japan is the most densely populated city.

Thomas Malthus on Population

Malthus predicted:

population would outrun food supply

decrease in food per person.

Assumptions Populations grow

exponentially. Food supply grows

arithmetically. Food shortages and chaos

inevitable.

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Food Population2 24 48 1616 256

Population J-Curve

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The Endhttp://grist.org/population/2011-10-24-population-7-billion-unpacked-a-comic/

(Look at stats on main page and then look at parts of the comic (pg.

2 and 3)