The Many Elections of 2012

Elections and Lessons

Overview:• Congressional elections and polarization, 1950s

to 2012, with a bit of Redistricting• The Republican Nomination – Two Elections and

Two Electorates• The Presidential General Election – The

Economy and…..?• The Tea Party and the Republican Dilemma• 2013 and Obama’s Second Term

US Presidential Election, 2012

US Congressional Elections, 2012

Congressional ElectionsPresidential Nominations

The Presidential General Election:What Polarization Looks Like:

• Elite – Congress, sorting and movement toward the extremes• Public Perceptions • Activists• Is the Public?

44 44 44 44

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Liberal Conservative Voting Records, 1997-98

Democrats

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Liberal-Conservative Voting Records, 1969-70

Democrats

Republicans

Sorting by Party in Congress

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Polarization of the Congress, 1968-2008

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Divergence: Polarization in the U.S. Congress, 1910-2010

House Senate

Year Congress opened

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The Public Perceives Congressional Polarization

Polarization in the Electorate:Comparing Views of Presidential Candidates in 1968 and 2008

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0.00

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Polarization of the Congress and of Public Evaluations, 1968-2008

House

Senate

Public

Year

Ave

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Figure 6.5 Polarization of partisan identifiers and party activists, 1972-2008

Party Activists Presidential Donors Party Identifiers

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The Nomination Campaign

• Two major features

• Tradeoff between representing the beliefs of primary voters versus convincing them of the need to win the general election

• The public learning about the candidates

General Election

• The General Election is three contests

• Tradeoff between mobilizing the base and winning the center

• A referendum on the incumbent party

• A choice of the person to be president

The GOP and the Tea Party

The Tea Party is three things, relevant to here:

• First, it was a public expression of frustration

• Second, it was taken over quickly by the most right-wing leadership of the actual GOP and then assimilated quickly into the actual GOP itself

The GOP and the Tea Party

The Tea Party is three things, relevant to here:

• First, it was a public expression of frustration

• Second, it was assimilated into the GOP quickly.

• Third, it turns out that it really was both an economic movement and a broad, nation wide, that is to say non-southern dominated movement and organized, part of the Republican Party

The GOP and the Tea Party

The Tea Party is three things, relevant to here:

• First, it was a public expression of frustration

• Second, it was assimilated into the GOP quickly.

• Third, it really was not a southern dominated movement.

• Item: GOP leadership 1955 – 0 of 10 (House and Senate) GOP leadership 1995 – 7 of 10 GOP leadership 2011 – 3 of 10

The GOP and the Tea Party

The Tea Party is three things, relevant to here:• First, it was a public expression of frustration• Second, it was taken over quickly by the most right-wing leadership

of the actual GOP and then assimilated quickly into the actual GOP itself

• Third, it turns out that it really was both an economic movement and a broad, nation wide, that is to say non-southern dominated movement and organized, part of the Republican Party

• Item: GOP leadership 1995 – 7 of 10 (House and Senate) GOP leadership 2011 – 3 of 10

A Note on 2010

• Our (Aldrich, Bishop, Hatch, Hillygus, Rohde) data show that 2010 had two major features that turned what might have been a regularly slightly GOP year into a rout.

– 1. High turnout among those who approved of the Tea Party, above expectations, and

overtaking Blacks, Latinos, and youth voting from 2008.

– 2. High Republican vote among moderates, independents, and weaker Democrats who blamed Bush or banks/Wall Street for the economic collapse (about 2 in 3 in 2010, down to a slim majority today) but held Democrats responsible for not doing enough to fix it.

• These two are roughly equally sized groups.

• Opposition to “Obamacare” or the stimulus played a small role, if any role at all, above and beyond 1 and 2.

Tea Party 2012

• The 2010 elections were a zenith, although the Tea Party did not win in all cases.

• It remains (at least in 2012) a potent force in primaries.• It appears to be a vulnerability in general elections.

• Caveat 1: Redistricting helped conserve Tea Party victors.

• Caveat 2: They will not be replaced, if they are replaced at all, by bipartisan moderates.

Implications for the future?

• Further reduction of moderate office holders.

• Continued increase in the likelihood of the selection of candidates who are extreme relative to the middle of the spectrum.

• Elites recognize that party control is essential for policy success. Thus electoral success is a central consideration in all substantive processes.

• The Pattern of Future Policy Making – Gridlock or Lurching from the Liberal to the Conservative side and back again.

Where Polarization Comes fromWhere the Tea Party Comes from

Why the South is the primary driver

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Figure 7.2 Party unity and conservative coalition votes, U.S. House, 1953 - 1997

Conservative Coalition Party Votes

Congress

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Figure 7.4 Party unity scores, U.S. Senate, 1954-2007

All Dem South Dem Rep

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