the life cycle of the conservative government, 1979 - 1997

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The life cycle of the Conservative Government, 1979 - 1997

Margaret Thatcher’s Conservatives defeated James Callaghan’s incumbent Labour Government at the general election of 3 May 1979. This would be the first of four consecutive terms of Conservative Government, lasting a total of 18 years.

This booklet is a statistical analysis of each of these four elections. It discusses the exact proportions of the popular vote, and examines trends across the period. Its purpose is to establish a greater understanding of this unique Government life cycle.

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1979

Conservative 43.9%Labour 36.9%Other 19.2%

1983

Conservative 42.4%Labour 27.6%Other 30%

1987


1992


Percentage of popular votein the UK

This page describes the proportions of the popular vote won by the two main parties at each General Election. Data was collected from the House of Commons Library research papers 03/59, and 05/33.

Despite an overwhelming defeat at the 1997 election, winning the lowest proportion of the vote for 100 years, the Conservatives retained a comfortable majority throughout the preceding cycle of Government.

In 1987, Margaret Thatcher became the first Prime Minister since 1827 to win three consecutive victories. This has since been equalled by Tony Blair in 2005.

Thatcher resigned in 1990 after a leadership challenge from Michael Heseltine, and was replaced by then Chancellor John Major. In 1992, Major went on to win a fourth and final Conservative term in his own right.

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1979


1983


1987


1992


Percentage of seats in the House of Commons

This page describes the proportions of seats in the House of Commons won by the two main parties at each General Election. Data was collected from the House of Commons Library research papers 03/59, and 05/33.

At each of these elections, the majority in the House is considerably higher than that of the popular vote. This reflects the divisive nature of the Conservative Government at this time, and its unpopularity in some areas of society.

In 1983, Thatcher’s second term was accompanied by the largest Conservative majority in the 20th Century. Despite a large increase in the number of Conservative seats in 1983, the party’s popular vote diminished slightly.

Throughout this period, the number of seats held by smaller parties was drastically less than today. The presence of smaller parties in the House of Commons is currently double what it was in 1987.

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Conservative performance:England

1979

Conservative votes 12.26mPercentage of total 47.2%Swing + 8.4%

1983

Conservative votes 11.71mPercentage of total 46%Swing - 1.2%

1987

Conservative votes 12.52mPercentage of total 46.1%Swing + 0.1%

1992

Conservative votes 12.8mPercentage of total 45.5%Swing - 0.6%

This page describes the performance of the Conservative Government in England at each General Election, recorded in terms of actual ballots, percentage of the popular vote, and swing.

Data was collected from the House of Commons Library research papers 03/59, and 05/33. The diagrams are calculated to represent percentages in terms of area rather than height.

Throughout this government cycle, the Conservative majority in England was far greater than that in Scotland and Wales. In 1992, John Major won almost 20% more of the popular vote in England than in Scotland.

Conservative performance also remained the most consistent in England. After the initial surge of popularity, the vote rarely changed by more than 1%.

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Conservative performance:Wales

1979

Conservative votes 526.3kPercentage of total 32.2%Swing + 8.3%

1983

Conservative votes 499.3kPercentage of total 31%Swing - 1.2%

1987

Conservative votes 501.3kPercentage of total 29.5%Swing - 1.5%

1992

Conservative votes 499.7kPercentage of total 28.6%Swing - 0.9%

This page describes the performance of the Conservative Government in Wales at each General Election, recorded in terms of actual ballots, percentage of the popular vote, and swing.


The Conservatives in Wales were less popular than in England. Unlike in England, the proportion of the popular vote won by the party was never more than that won by Labour, even at the latter’s most unpopular.

However, Welsh support for the Conservatives was far more consistent in this period than in Scotland, never fluctuating by more than 2% after the initial swell.

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Conservative performance:Scotland

1979

Conservative votes 916.2kPercentage of total 31.4%Swing + 6.7%

1983

Conservative votes 801.5kPercentage of total 28.4%Swing - 3%

1987

Conservative votes 713.1kPercentage of total 24%Swing - 4.4%

1992

Conservative votes 752kPercentage of total 25.6%Swing - 1.6%

This page describes the performance of the Conservative Government in Scotland at each General Election, recorded in terms of actual ballots, percentage of the popular vote, and swing.


The Conservative government was less popular in Scotland than England and Wales at each of these four elections. This is a trend that has continued into recent years.

The initial increase in popularity of 1979 was more muted than in England and Wales. Scotland also saw the biggest decrease in Conservative votes, at 4.4% in 1987.

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Turnout:Percentage of Electorate

1979

Turnout 76%Total votes 31, 222, 279Electorate 41, 093, 264

1983

Turnout 72.7%Total votes 30, 670, 905Electorate 42, 197, 344

1987


1992


This page measures the turnout at each General Election; the percentage of those legally permitted to vote who cast a legible ballot. Turnout can be seen as a measure of political apathy.

Data was gathered from the Times Guides to the House of Commons for each respective year.

Turnout was average for each of these four elections. It was at its peak for the first elections of the two Prime Ministers, Thatcher and Major, and at its lowest in 1983.

Turnout in Wales was consistently the highest in each of these elections. Wales was consistently in favour of Labour throughout this period.

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Spoilt Ballots:Fraction of 1% of Electorate

1979

Spoilt ballots 117, 848Percentage of total 0.38%

1983


1987


1992


This page details the percentage of spoilt ballots at each General Election. This is always a small number. As such, the diagram represent fractions of 1% of the overall votes.

Data was gathered from the Times Guides to the House of Commons for each respective year.

Ballots are defined as spoilt for one of the following reasons: want of the official mark, voting for more than one candidate, writing or mark by which the voter could be identified, or submitting an unmarked ballot paper.

With the sole exception of 2005, 1979 saw the largest number of spoilt ballots since records began in 1964. This was also the year in which the first and only female Prime Minister in history was elected.

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Conservative Demographics:Percentage of male voters

1979

Cons. male voters 43%Swing + 11%

1983

Cons. male voters 42%Swing - 1%

1987

Cons. male voters 43%Swing + 1%

1992

Cons. male voters 41%Swing - 2%

This page describes the percentage of male voters at each General Election who voted Conservative. The data was collected from Ipsos MORI.

At each election, men voted Conservative in fewer numbers than women, with the exception of 1987, in which there was an equal level of support from both sexes.

There was a greater increase in male Conservative voters when the party came to power in 1979, although this still equated to a total proportion 4% smaller than among female voters.

Men were less supportive of John Major’s Government than Margaret Thatcher’s. The proportion of Conservative male voters dropped by 2% in 1992. The equivalent proportion among women increased by 1%.

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Conservative Demographics:Percentage of female voters

1979

Cons. female voters 47%Swing + 8%

1983

Cons. female voters 46%Swing - 1%

1987

Cons. female voters 43%Swing - 3%

1992

Cons. female voters 44%Swing + 1%

This page describes the percentage of female voters at each General Election who voted Conservative. The data was collected from Ipsos MORI.

With the exception of 1987, the proportion of women voting Conservative remained consistently higher than men throughout this period.

The typical Conservative voter for this cycle of government was a middle class woman, aged 55 or over. Margaret Thatcher became Prime Minister at the age of 53.

Greater female than male support for the Conservatives is a trend that continued on to the 2001 election. However, by 2005, this had reversed.

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Conservative Demographics:Aged 18 - 24

1979

Cons. voters 18 - 24 42%Swing + 18%

1983

Cons. voters 18 - 24 42%Swing 0%

1987

Cons. voters 18 - 24 37%Swing - 5%

1992


This page describes the percentage of voters aged between 18 and 24 who voted Conservative at these elections.

With the exception of 1983, this age bracket offered the least support for the Conservative Government. In 1983, support was slightly higher than in the 25 - 34 band.

Voters aged 18 - 24 offered the biggest increase in Conservative votes when Thatcher first came to power in 1979 - a full 18%.

By the 1992 election, the Conservative share of votes among 18 - 24 year olds was 12% lower than that of the largest support base - voters aged 55+

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Voters in this age bracket tended to offer more support for the Conservatives than the age bracket below, but less than the two age brackets above.

This illustrates a general trend in these figures. During this period at least, the likelihood of voting Conservative increased as one grew older.

Voters aged 25 - 34 were the only ones to increase the proportion of Conservative votes for John Major’s Government in 1992.

1979


1983


1987


1992

Cons. voters 25 -34 40%Swing + 1%

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At each election, this age bracket offered the second-highest share of votes to the Conservatives, after the 55 + bracket.

Even in 1992, when Conservative support was generally less than in previous elections, the 35 - 54 bracket offered a larger share of the vote than the 18 - 24 bracket in 1979, at the height of Conservative popularity.

Despite this, the 35 - 34 bracket saw the second largest upswing of Conservative votes in 1979, from a relatively low 34% in 1974.


1979


1983


1987


1992


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This page describes the percentage of voters aged 55 and over who voted Conservative at these elections.

This age bracket offered the highest percentage of Conservative votes at each of the four elections in this period, and continues to do so to this day.

This bracket also saw the least variation in voting patterns. The increase in Conservative votes in 1979 was the smallest, and the proportion changed by no more than 1% after that.

The typical Conservative voter during this period was a woman aged 55 and over, from a middle class background.

Conservative Demographics:Aged 55 +

1979

Cons. voters 55+ 47%Swing +5%

1983

Cons. voters 55+ 47%Swing 0%

1987

Cons. voters 55+ 46%Swing - 1%

1992

Cons. voters 55+ 46%Swing 0%

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Conservative Demographics:Middle class and skilled working class

1979

Cons. MC voters 59%Swing + 3%

1979

Cons. SWC voters 41%Swing + 15%

1983

Cons. MC voters 55%Swing - 4%

1983

Cons. SWC voters 40%Swing - 1%

1987

Cons. MC voters 54%Swing - 1%

1987

Cons. SWC voters 40%Swing 0%

1992

Cons. MC voters 54%Swing 0%

1992

Cons. SWC voters 39%Swing - 1%

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Conservative Demographics:Unskilled or semi-skilled working class

1979

Cons. U or S-S voters 34%Swing + 12%

1983

Cons. U or S-S voters 33%Swing - 1%

1987


1992


These pages detail the share of votes from members of different classes won by the Conservatives during this period.

Classes were determined using the NRS social grade system. Middle class refers to grades A, B, and C1. Skilled working class represents grade C2. Semi-skilled or unskilled working class refers to grades D and E.

The middle class offered the greatest level of support to the Conservatives during this period. In the entire demographics dataset, they are the only group to consistently poll above 50%.

In 1979, the middle class share of the vote was a full 25% higher than that of unskilled or semi-skilled working class voters.

the life cycle of the conservative government, 1979 - 1997

Documents

conservative performance

number of conservative

largest conservative

final conservative term

mpercentage of total

general election

partys popular vote

preceding cycle of government