the last primary forest remnants in europe: their spatial ... · the last primary forest remnants...

The last primary forest remnants

in Europe:

their spatial distribution and

determinants

Francesco Maria Sabatini and more than 30 European and USA

team members

Presented by Miroslav Svoboda, Czech University

of Life Sciences, Czech Republic

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Geography Department

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Primary Forests

Forests where there are no clearly visible signs of human activities and

ecological processes are not significantly disrupted

Increasingly rare (Potapov et al. 2017, Science)

Refuge for biodiversity

Mongabay.comSaleskalab.org

Social value – Perception of Wilderness

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Objectives

1. COMPILE the first

European-scale map of

known primary forests

2. ANALYZE the spatial

determinants characterizing

their location

3. PREDICT where

previously unmapped

primary forests are likely to

occur.

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27/02/2015Boschi Vetusti Pagina 8

Anthropogenic Impact

Buchwald, E. 2005. FAO, Rome, 17-19 January 2005.

Need of a consistent, flexible, widely accepted definition Framework

Primary forests

A Jungle of Words

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Existing

maps

Literature

Review

Network of Forest

Scientists

1. COMPILE

First European-

scale map of

primary forests

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1.4 M ha mapped

32 countries

0.7% of Europe’s forest area

~89% protected (any)

46% Strictly protected (IUCN I)

1. COMPILE

First map for Europe

Collaborative effort!

32 datasets aggregated

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1. COMPILE

(IUCN II-VI)

(IUCN I)

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Forest types (EEA, 2006)

• FT1- Boreal forest,

• FT2 - Hemiboreal and nemoral coniferous-

mixed forest,

• FT3 - Alpine coniferous,

• FT4-5 - Mesophytic deciduous and

acidophilous forest,

• FT6 – Beech forest,

• FT7 - Mountainous beech forest,

• FT8 - Thermophilous deciduous forest,

• FT9 - Broadleaved evergreen forest;

• FT10 - Coniferous Mediterranean forest;

• FT12 – Floodplain forest,

• FT13 - Non-riverine alder, birch or aspen,

• NA-NC - NoData/Unclassified.

Naturalness levels (Buchwald 2005):

• n7 - Near-virgin forest,

• n6 – Old-growth forest,

• n5 – Long-untouched forest.

Unbalanced distribution across

forest types

FT1

FT7

FT3

FT4-5

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What are the

ecological\historical

reasons underlying the

current distribution of

these forests?

Determinants

of remnant

distribution

Boosted

Regression

Trees

2. ANALYZE

Predictors:

Climate

Soil\Agricultural suitability

Topography

Socio-economic

Forest conditions

Land-use legacies

Resolution: 1x1 km

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Ruggedness

2. ANALYZE

Old-growth and virgin forest

disproportionately occurred in remote,

scarcely populated areas, rugged areas

marginal land with low agricultural

productivity and low profitability for

forestry operations.

‘Far and High’

BUT:

AUC = 0.70

Relatively low!

Historical contingencies?

Travel time

Pop. density

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3. PREDICT

Areas with the

highest likelihood

of hosting old-

growth and\or

virgin forest

95th percentile

90th percentile

Forest mask

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Geography DepartmentPrimary

forest

(1,000

ha)

Fraction of

country

covered by

primary

forests (%)

Protected

(%)

Protected

under

IUCN

regime I

(1,000 ha)

Num.

remnants

Median

extent

(ha)

Albania 3.64 0.13% 93.1% 34.6% 6 121

Austria 7.13 0.08% 100.0% 10.9% 6 1020

Belarus 0.06 0.00% 98.4% 96.7% - -

Belgium 0.27 0.01% 100.0% 0.0% 5 24

Bosnia and Herzegovina 1.75 0.03% 91.5% 5.6% 6 55

Bulgaria 55.71 0.50% 99.2% 75.8% 219 50

Croatia 9.83 0.17% 100.0% 24.7% 58 58

Cyprus - - - - - -

Czech Republic 8.87 0.11% 98.5% 6.7% 115 22

Denmark 1.69 0.04% 100.0% 19.8% 24 24

Estonia 0.05 0.00% 95.7% 0.0% 29 2

Finland 985.95 2.92% 98.9% 55.2% 1442 20

France 5.50 0.01% 100.0% 0.6% 57 4

Germany 5.93 0.02% 97.8% 0.0% 43 49

Greece 1.79 0.01% 100.0% 42.9% 26 11

Hungary 0.28 0.00% 100.0% 0.0% 8 28

Ireland - - - - - -

Italy 5.56 0.02% 99.9% 35.5% 79 32

Latvia - - - - - -

Lithuania 32.55 0.50% 100.0% 75.2% 23 283

Luxembourg - - - - - -

Macedonia 0.83 0.03% 100.0% 0.0% 6 105

Malta - - - - - -

Moldova - - - - - -

Montenegro 2.83 0.20% 100.0% 0.0% 1 2834

Netherlands 0.08 0.00% 98.8% 0.0% 3 25

Norway 105.83 0.33% 5.6% 3.5% 62 398

Poland 21.27 0.07% 100.0% 0.2% 71 57

Portugal 16.21 0.18% 93.3% 24.8% 216 6

Romania 51.67 0.22% 94.9% 0.1% 161 109

Serbia 0.21 0.00% 71.2% 11.2% 7 16

Slovakia 11.02 0.22% 96.7% 56.2% 280 16

Slovenia 9.58 0.47% 98.0% 27.0% 168 16

Spain 6.80 0.01% 100.0% 92.3% 9 110

Sweden 30.08 0.07% 97.7% 0.1% 56 6

Switzerland 21.54 0.52% 87.8% 76.6% 16 58

Ukraine 70.11 0.12% 44.4% 26.7% 590 26

United Kingdom 0.10 0.00% 65.0% 0.0% 2 50

Total 1474.70 0.25% 89.3% 45.9% 3794 24

Boreal region

Finland

Norway

Temperate region

Romania

Bulgaria

Ukraine

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Conclusions on results

The current distribution of primary forest is the result of centuries of

land-use dynamics and pressures, but also specific historical

events not easy to map.

1.4 M ha in 32 countries mapped

Biased distribution across countries, biogeographical regions and

forest types. Mostly in the mountains and boreal regions. ‘Far and High’.

Low share of primary forest in lowlands

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Conclusions for conservation

Countries and regions which deserves special attention:

- The Carpathians Mts. (Romania, Ukraine and Slovakia)

- Balkan region (Bulgaria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Albania and others

many of those countries have now no data (very poor)

many of the site are not protected (very poor protection)

regular logging and illegal logging is taking place in many sites

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Romania, Fagaras Mts. in southern Carpathians

- Over 10 000 ha of primary forests, one of the largest complex regions

(fragmentation and connectivity)

- very poor protection status

- cutting of old-growth forests going on

Fagaras old-growth valley destruction

Increased acces results in large scale

logging of primary forest (Fagaras Mts.)

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Overall conclusions

The result of an unprecedented international collaboration, our

map should be considered as A STARTING POINT towards a more

complete inventory

Conservation outlook is uncertain (only 46% under strict protection, is

protection effective? Mostly small fragments weak insurance vs.

human disturbance; extinction debt?)

EU countries are facing big issues in terms of protecting of the

remaining primary forests

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[email protected] Twitter: @BiogeoBerlin

Coauthors and data contributors:

Pieter Jürgen Bauhus, Erik Buchwald, Costel Bucur, Sabina

Burrascano, Oleh Chaskovsky, Nicolas Debaive, Adam Dušan,

Ferenc Horváth, Matteo Garbarino, Nikolaos Grigoriadis, Hanns

Kirchmeir, William S. Keeton, Ann Kraut, Christian Levers,

Marcus Lindner, Fabio Lombardi, Inês Marques Duarte, Radu

Melu. Peter Meyer, Rein Midteng, Stjepan Mikac, Martin

Mikolas, Renzo Motta, Gintautas Mozgeris, Leónia Nunes, Rok

Pisek, Momchil Panayotov, Florian Pötzschner, Peter Ódor,

Alejandro Ruete, Oscar Schwendtner, Bojan Simovski, Jonas

Stillhard, Miroslav Svoboda, Jerzy Szwagrzyk, Olli-Pekka

Tikkanen, Daniel Vallauri, Johannes Verkerk, Roman

Volosyanchuk, Tomas Vrska, Juraj Vysoky, Tzvetan Mladenov

Zlatanov, Tobias Kuemmerle

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