the impossible trinity and capital flows in east asia

8/3/2019 The Impossible Trinity and Capital Flows in East Asia

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/the-impossible-trinity-and-capital-flows-in-east-asia 1/22

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2

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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Investment

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saving

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liquidity_preference

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_supply

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_supply

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liquidity_preference

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saving

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Investment




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99

7% FGGO@OIC OETAZWAETOFE KI_ JA PTIJOCO\OEM IEDAYQOCOJZITOEM

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Cat qp zatqze tf tba Poemi~fza arik~ca% ]bit og tba Poemi~fza iqtbfzotoap# }otb tbaoz womfzfqpkieimakaet# }aza bac~oem tf haa~ tba ar`biema zita `cfpa tf otp gqedikaetic ayqocojzoqk6 TbaPoemi~fza dfcciz bip jaae zakizhijc ptijca gfz tba ~ipt t}f daìdap# pbf}oem kfdapt pbogtp oezap~fepa tf ki`zf+a`fefko` òz`qkptieàp ied i jzfid q~}izd tzaed fg i~~zaòitofe# }bo`bkombt ja ar~cioead oe tazkp fg Jicippi&Pikqacpfe% Ot ki ja tbit tba ayqocojzoqk ar`biema zita}ip ic}ip oepoda tba jied ied tba iqtbfzotoap pok~c dagaedad tbop# }bo`b }ip okkqea gzfkp~a`qcitowa itti`h jaìqpa tbaza }aza ef dopayqocojzoqk izjotzima f~~fztqeotoap gfz tbap~a`qcitfzp tf tiha% Tbaza op àztioec ef awodaeà tbit p~a`qcitfzp biwa kida ie ~zfgot jtihoem fe tbop kieimad zita%

Tbit piod# tba Poemi~fza ìpa ki ja kfza `fk~car% Ot op eft `caiz tbit tba cfem+tazk ayqocojzoqk

ar`biema zita giccp oepoda tba jied }bo`b Poemi~fza dagaedp% Gfz kfza tbie i daìda# Poemi~fzabip zqe i cizma `qzzaet i``fqet pqz~cqp "9>‐:>! fg MD^/ ied bip i``qkqcitad gfzaome ar`biemazapazwap ayqic tf kfza tbie otp ieeqic MD^% Tbqp Poemi~fza ki ~zfwoda ie awae ptzfemazzagqtitofe fg tba Ok~fppojca Tzoeot tbie tba arik~cap ijfwa# }baza Hfzai# Oedfeapoi# iedKicipoi }aza kieimoem tbaoz ar`biema zitap tf}izdp ayqocojzoqk% Ot paakp tbit Poemi~fza bipjaae pq`àppgqc# gfz kfza tbie t}f daìdap# oe kioetioeoem i ptijca ar`biema zita "oe jftb zaicied efkoeic tazkp/ }bo`b ki eft biwa jaae tba cfem+tazk ayqocojzoqk% Tba Kfeatiz Iqtbfzotfg Poemi~fza "KIP/ bip eft cfpt kfea oe tba kieimakaet "oe gi`t tba kqpt biwa kida i ~zfgotjaìqpa tba biwa jfqmbt Poemi~fza dfcciz it tba jfttfk fg tba pcf}c awfcwoem jied ied pfcd




9:

Poemi~fza dfcciz it tba tf~/% ]otb tba ptijocot fg tba zita kioetioead gfz pq`b i cfem ~azofd# efp~a`qcitfzp –tiha fe‛ tba KIP oe tba jacoag tbit tba ar`biema zita op qedazwicqad% Pq`b pq`àppgcoap oe tba già fg tba Ok~fppojca Tzoeot ptfz%

=% OP TBAZA I QPAGQC PFGTAZ WAZPOFE FG TBA

OK^FPPOJCA TZOEOT_6Awae og tba Ok~fppojca Tzoeot oe otp ~qza wazpofe dfap eft paak tf bfcd# op ot ptocc i qpagqc `feà~toe i cffpaz wazpofe# ip i zakoedaz tbit tbaza iza oetaz`feea`tofep ied ~fco` `feptzioetp jat}aaeoetazapt zitap# ar`biema zitap# ied ì~otic gcf}p6

Gziehac "9???< 1/ pqmmapt tbit tzocakki ìe ja ~iztoicc i`boawad% –Tbaza op eftboem oe aroptoemtbafz# gfz arik~ca# tbit ~zawaetp i `fqetz gzfk ~qzpqoem i kieimad gcfit oe }bo`b bicg fg awazgcq`tqitofe op i``fkkfditad j oetazwaetofe ied bicg op zagca`tad oe tba ar`biema zita%‛ Tbop#bf}awaz# dfap eft paak `fepoptaet }otb tba appaeà fg tba Ok~fppojca Tzoeot% ]otboe tbaieictoìc gzika}fzh fg `cfpac pqjptotqtijca `qzzaeòap# tf pat ~fco` oetazapt zitap it fec bicg fgtba doggazaetoic zayqozad j kfeatiz ~fco` iqtfefk }fqcd ja tba }fzpt fg icc }fzcdp< tff bomb tfiwfod ì~otic oegcf}p ied tff cf} tf zaptzioe tba dfkapto` a`fefk% Tf pat tba ar`biema zita it

ie qedazwicqad cawac patp fgg i ì~otic oegcf}# awae og tba qedazwicqitofe op pkiccaz tbie tbaiqtbfzotoap }fqcd coha% Tba `zqr fg tba oppqa op tbit og fq tboeh tbit ì~otic gcf}p zap~fed tfizjotzima# ie oeda~aedaetc pat oetazapt zita fz ar`biema zita patp oe tzioe ì~otic gcf}p }bo`b`fetoeqa qetoc tba izjotzima f~~fztqeot op `cfpad j `biemap oe tba oetazapt zita fz tba ar`biemazita# eft j –bicwoem tba doggazaeà%‛

Og tba iqtbfzotoap iza ijca tf i`boawa bicg fg tba oetazapt doggazaetoic tba }iet# fz bicg fg tbaar`biema zita kieimakaet tba }iet# tbop tihap qp ji`h tf tba zaic }fzcd# jqt ot ìe ef cfemaz japaae ip tba Ok~fppojca Tzoeot%

I zacitad i~~zfi`b op tbit idf~tad j Io|aekie# @boee# ied Otf ":>>?/# }bf dawacf~ oedoàp fgkfeatiz oeda~aedaeà# ar`biema zita gcarojocot ied f~aeeapp tf ì~otic gcf}p ied ar~cfzad tbatzida+fgg tbit wizofqp `fqetzoap biwa `bfpae jat}aae tbaza tbzaa jzfid ~fco` f~tofep% Tba ha

ieictoìc iddotofe op tf paa ar`biema zita oetazwaetofe ip ie artzi oeptzqkaet fg ~fco`<da~iztqzap gzfk tba Ok~fppojca Tzoeot ìe ja ar~cioead oe tazkp fg tba iqtbfzotoap‟ zaidoeapp tfqpa ar`biema zita oetazwaetofe% Jqt tba ok~i`t fg gfzaome ar`biema zapazwap op iczaid it tbabaizt fg tba Ok~fppojca Tzoeot ~zfàpp% Ot op tbop }bo`b ìqpad jipa kfea mzf}tb ied cfpp fgkfeatiz iqtfefk% Og tbop `bieeac dfap eft f~azita "ied }a biwa izmqad ijfwa tbit ot dfapeft/# tbae }bit op cagt fg tba Ok~fppojca Tzoeot6

Tbop –pfgt‛ wazpofe fg tba Ok~fppojca Tzoeot ~zfdqàp oetazaptoem zapqctp# jqt dfap eft tiha qp wazgiz oe dawacf~oem f~tokic ~fco` zap~fepap tf tba `feptzioetp fg oetaz+`feea`tadeapp% Zitbaz tbiepaa tbapa ip tbzaa acakaetp }bo`b ìe ja tzidad fgg oe i ka`bieoìc }i "}otb tba oedoàppqkkoem tf fea/# }a eaad tf paa bf} tba doggazaet t~ap fg ì~otic oegcf} zap~fedp tf oetazaptdoggazaetoicp% ]a eaad i kfza ~zaòpa ieicpop fg tba kazotp ied dakazotp fg gfzaome ar`biemazapazwa i``qkqcitofe ied pfka odai fg }bit op ie f~tokic cawac fg zapazwap%

2% TBA OK^FZTIE@A FG CFEMAZ+TAZK OETAZAPT ZITAP

Tba Ok~fppojca Tzoeot ptfz gf`qpap fe kfeatiz ~fco`# ip zagca`tad oe tba pbfzt+tazk oetazaptzita# pat j tba iqtbfzotoap% Kfeatiz ~fco` op i zacitowac pbfzt+tazk oeptzqkaet# pbogtoem tba pbfztaed fg tba oacd `qzwa fwaz tba `fqzpa fg tba ``ca# ~qttoem ot ijfwa tba ]ohpaccoie –eitqzic‛ zita}bae tba a`fefk op zqeeoem tff ptzfemc "ie oewazpa oacd `qzwa/ ied jacf} tba eitqzic zita




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}bae tba a`fefk op oe tba }aih ~bipa fg tba ``ca% Tba cfemaz aed fg tba oacd `qzwa zagca`tptbapa pbfzt+tazk ~fco` `biemap tf pfka damzaa "tbzfqmb oetazapt zita ar~a`titofep/ jqt tbacfemaz aed op japt paae ip jaoem ie`bfzad j tba ]ohpaccoie zaic zita# jipad fe ar~a`tad zaiczatqzep fe ì~otic "}otb tba efkoeic `fqetaz~izt oe`fz~fzitoem oegcitofe ar~a`titofep/%

Tba ha oppqa op tbit tbop ]ohpaccoie zita }occ ja pqjptietoicc bombaz oe tba akazmoem `fqetzoap tbieoe tba kitqza a`fefkoap# ied tbop oetazapt doggazaetoic op eft i tak~fziz ~baefkaefe# jqt }occ ja

kioetioead gfz pfka daìdap%Tbapa akazmoem `fqetzoap# }otb tba ~zfmzappowa pbogt tf}izdp tba ta`befcfmoìc gzfetoaz zayqozoemcizma oe`zaipap oe ì~otic ~az baid# biwa tba ~zfp~a`t fg bomb ~zfdq`towot ied ~zfgotijocot gfz

pfka daìdap ibaid%1

@i~otic gcf}p paahoem tf ì~tqza tbapa bombaz zatqzep df eft jod df}e tba zatqzep% Ie akazmoem`fqetz kfwoem tf}izdp tba ta`befcfmoìc gzfetoaz bip tba ~zfp~a`t fg daìdap fg tbop hoed fgijfwa+efzkic ~zfdq`towot ied aràpp ~zfgotp%

Ip tba ja`fka kfza `cfpac oetamzitad oetazeitofeicc# gfzaome oewaptfzp

}occ oe`zaipoemc zap~fed tf tbop qedazcoem ~zfgotijocot doggazaetoic% Bf} ìe tbop ~zfp~a`t fgpqptioead bombaz zatqzep ja za`feòcad }otb ~fztgfcof jicieà gfz tba gfzaomeazp }bfpa oeotoic~fztgfcofp iza oe tba cf}az+zatqze kitqza a`fefkoap6

Ie fwazc+i~~zaòitad ar`biema zita kombt ja ~izt fg tba ~fztgfcof ayqocojzoqk ~zfàpp# icfem tbacoeap fg Dfzejqp`b ar`biema zita fwaz+pbfftoem kfdac% Jqt tbop op i ``coìc kfdac "o%a%# ot i~~coaptf tba pbfzt tazk/% Tba Dfzejqp`b fwazpbfftoem ka`bieopk ok~coap ie qezaicopto` ar`biema zita~zfgoca "i waz cizma oeotoic pta~+lqk~ oe tba ar`biema zita gfccf}ad j kie aizp fg mzidqicda~zaòitofe/% Ot op bizd tf jacoawa tbit tbop heoga+adma ~itb ìe ja kioetioead fwaz toka% Oeptaid#ot kombt oedqà ar`biema zita wfcitocot ied wizoijocot }bo`b kombt bac~ tf dop`fqzima ì~oticoegcf}p% Tba ìzz tzida gcf}p kombt ja ie arik~ca fg tbop hoed fg yqipo+jicieà< kadoqk+tazk~azofdp "~azbi~p ciptoem gowa fz tae aizp/ }bae tba oetazapt doggazaetoic op eft fggpat j ar`biemazita cfppap iza pq`àadad j pbfzt+pbiz~ giccp# jagfza tba ~zfàpp jamoep imioe% Tba zoph fg tbapagiccp# }otb tbaoz qehef}ijca tokoem# haa~p tba oegcf}p oe pfka hoed fg ayqocojzoqk% Efta# bf}awaz#bf} doggazaet tba toka+~zfgoca fg tba ar`biema zita op }otb tba ìzz tzida< oe zap~fepa tf bombazoetazapt doggazaetoic# i cfem pcf} i~~zaòitofe gfccf}ad j i pbfzt pbiz~ gicc%

Pfka ì~otic gcf}p }occ ja zap~fedoem tf tba ~fco`+dzowae `biemap oe tba pbfzt aed fg tba oacd`qzwa "ip aewopimad j tba Ok~fppojca Tzoeot/% Tbqp pbfzt+tazk ~fztgfcof gcf}p ied p~a`qcitowagcf}p ki got tba Ok~fppojca Tzoeot ptfz% Jqt tba cfemaz+tazk gcf}p "gfzaome doza`t oewaptkaet iedayqot ~fztgfcof gcf}p/ }occ ja dzowae kfza j tba kadoqk+tazk qedazcoem ~zfgotijocot fg tbaa`fefk# ip zagca`tad j tba eitqzic zita%

Tbapa kadoqk+tazk gcf}p ki eft ja kq`b datazzad j pbfzt+tazk wfcitocot fg tba ar`biema zita%Ie ictazeitowa ~fppojocot gfz i`boawoem i hoed fg ~fztgfcof jicieà# ~izto`qcizc zacawiet og tbaiqtbfzotoap iza appaetoicc fggpattoem tba aràppowa ì~otic oegcf} }otb gfzaome ar`biema zapazwaoe`zaipap/ }fqcd ja gfz tba ~zoà fg ippatp "~izto`qcizc tbfpa aipoc i`àppojca tf gfzaomeazoewaptfzp# pq`b ip ayqotoap ied ~zf~azt/ tf zopa pf tbit tba iza ~azàowad ip fwaz+wicqad iedtbqp pqpà~tojca tf pqddae ~zoà giccp% Tba zoph fg pq`b giccp }fqcd jicieà tba bombaz zqeeoem

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1 Pfka kombt paa tbop pika izmqkaet oe tazkp fg mzf}tb zitap< oetazapt zitap }occ i~~zfrokita tba a`fefk‟p mzf}tbzita "}batbaz kaipqzad oe zaic fz efkoeic tazkp/% Tbqp tba bombaz ~zfp~a`towa mzf}tb zitap fg tba akazmoem `fqetzoap}occ ja i``fk~ieoad j bombaz oetazapt zitap% _at ieftbaz }i fg cffhoem it tbop pika oppqa op tf tboeh fg tba akazmoem`fqetzoap ip biwoem i kq`b cf}az ì~otic&oe`fka zitof# }otb tbop ì~otic kq`b kfza bombc zakqeazitad tbie oe tbakitqza a`fefkoap%

Gfzaome gcf}p iza oebojotad eft j i bombaz "ijfwa ayqocojzoqk/ ar`biema

7Tbop ptfz bip pfka pokocizotoap }otb tba ìzz tzida# }baza QO^ dfap eft bfcd fwaz toka# oewaptfzp oe tba bomb+oetazapt

`qzzaeòap fjtioe aràpp zatqzep fwaz toka gzfk tba oacd doggazaetoic ied `qzzae` i~~zaòitofe# jqt iza pqjla`t tf




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zita "tba Dfzejqp`b fwazpbfftoem ka`bieopk/# jqt j bombaz ippat ~zoàp }bo`b iza pokocizcijfwa tbaoz cfemaz+tazk ayqocojzoqk%

Ot op tbop pqptioead okjicieà# zitbaz tbie pfka tak~fziz fz ``coìcc+dzowae oetazapt doggazaetoic#}bo`b op kftowitoem kq`b fg tba oegcf}%

Goedoem i ptijca cfem+tazk ayqocojzoqk }bae tba eitqzic oetazapt zitap doggaz op kida awae kfzadoggo`qct j tba ~zfjijocot tbit tba akazmoem `fqetzoap eft fec fggaz oewaptfzp i bombaz oetazaptzita# jqt ie ar`biema zita }bo`b }occ i~~zaòita fwaz toka oe zaic tazkp# tbiehp tf tbaJicippi&Pikqacpfe agga`t% îtoaet oewaptfzp iza cohac tf mat ie oetazapt doggazaetoic oe tbaoz giwfzied i giwfzijca kfwakaet oe tba ar`biema zita

Oewaptfzp oe tba kitqza a`fefkoap iza oe`zaipoemc za`fmeo|oem tbapa f~~fztqeotoap% Tba df pf#bf}awaz# oe }iwap fg `fegodaeà# }otb zatzaitp "–pqddae ptf~p‛/ }bae `fegodaeà awi~fzitap iedtba zitofeic oewaptfzp arotp# ieicfmfqp tf i jieh zqe% Tbapa pqddae `biemap oe ippappkaet izaar~coìjca oe tazkp fg tba oewaptfzp‟ ok~azga`t hef}cadma< }baza hef}cadma op eft gozkc jipad#`biemap fg ippappkaet ìe ja tzommazad j tba izzowic fg kfdapt ‒ea}p‟# fz j ftbaz oewaptfzp‟i`tofep%

Tbop caiwap akazmoem `fqetzoap ip tba zacq`tiet bfptp tf gfzaome ì~otic oegcf}p }bo`b ìqpa fwaz+wicqitofe ied wfcitocot eft fec tf ar`biema zitap# jqt tf ippat ~zoàp ip }acc% Ot op bizdc

pqz~zopoem tbit akazmoem `fqetzoap goed tbapa òz`qkptieàp tf ja qepitopgi`tfz# ied iza paahoem}ip tf zamqcita ied zadqà tba oegcf}p%

]a ef} arikoea }batbaz ~fco` bip ie i~~zf~zoita zap~fepap%

?% ]BIT TF DF6

Tba ptiedizd pqmmaptofe gfz `fqetzoap zaàowoem aràppowa oegcf}p op tf iccf} tba ar`biema zita tfi~~zaòita# tba `qzzaet i``fqet tf kfwa oe tba doza`tofe fg kfza dagoòt ied ijpfzj tba gfzaomeoegcf}p "OKG :>99/% Tbop ki ja ie ok~fztiet acakaet fg tba zap~fepa% Oetazeitofeic ì~oticpbfqcd ‛gcf} df}ebocc‛ tf tba akazmoem `fqetzoap }otb bombaz ~zfgot f~~fztqeotoap% Tba zai`tofe fgtba ar`biema zita ied tba f~aeoem q~ fg i `qzzaet i``fqet dagoòt iza tba ka`bieopk }bazaj tbazaic zapfqzà tziepgaz f``qzp# `fzzap~fedoem tf tba goeieòic gcf}p%

Jqt kie zaò~oaet `fqetzoap goed tbop i~~zaòitofe fg tba ar`biema zita tf ja oe`fewaeoaet"Zfdzoh# :>>2/% Ot ìqpap tba –Dqt`b dopaipa#‛ }bazaj dfkapto` tzidijca oedqptzoap izadop`fqzimad j tba i~~zaòitad ar`biema zita% Kfza gqedikaeticc# tba gfzaome ì~otic op fgtaearàppowa tf }bit tba `fqetz ìe qpagqcc ijpfzj# oe }bo`b ìpa tba i~~zaòitofe op i ~ffz ~zoàpomeic gfz dfkapto` oewaptkaet% –Caiwoem ot q~ tf tba kizhat‛ bip eft maeazicc jaae i ~zagazzad~fco` pfcqtofe oe Aipt Ipoi%

Tba fec ftbaz pqmmaptofe oe tba OKG tffc hot op tf zqe i jqdmat pqz~cqp tf cf}az oetazapt zitap iedtiha tba ~zappqza fgg dakied "paa OKG :>>=# OKG :>99/% Eaotbaz fg tbapa `bieeacp bfcdp fqtkq`b ~zi`toìc bf~a gfz daicoem }otb tba oegcf}p% ]a biwa iczaid eftad tbit pbfzt+tazk oetazaptzitap iza pat j kfeatiz ~fco` ied cfemaz tazk zitap cizmac j tba ]ohpaccoie eitqzic zita% ]bocatba OP&CK i~~zfi`b pqmmaptp tbit i ptzfemaz jqdmat "kfwoem oe tba doza`tofe fg pqz~cqp/ }occ cf}azoetazapt zitap# tbaza dfap eft paak tf ja ie zacoijca zacitofepbo~ oe ~zi`toà% Tbaza op eftboem oetbop ~fco` pqmmaptofe }bo`b }fqcd zadqà tba wfcqka fg ì~otic oegcf}% Ot‟p yqota ~fppojca tbit tbadakfeptzitofe fg ptzfem gopìc ~zfjot kombt i`tqicc oe`zaipa tba oegcf}%

pqddae ied qe~zado`tijca `qzzae` da~zaòitofe cfppap% Tba zoph fg tbapa pqddae cfppap jicieàp "oe i ~fztgfcof paepa/tba oetazapt doggazaetoic%




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Kfzafwaz# tba jqdmat tombtaeoem ki i`tqicc i~~zaòita tba ar`biema zita% Og pbogtoem tba jqdmatoe tba doza`tofe fg pqz~cqp `biemap tba piwoemp&oewaptkaet jicieà# tba `qzzaet i``fqet# jodaetot# icpf pbogtp oe tba doza`tofe fg pqz~cqp% Og tba ì~otic oegcf} op cizmac qe`biemad "ied tbazaop ef zaipfe tf ar~a`t i `biema/# tbop }occ ~qt q~}izd ~zappqza fe tba ar`biema zita ip tba zitatzoap tf ayqocojzita tba `qzzaet i``fqet ~fpotofe }otb tba ì~otic gcf}p% Ie ar ieta pkiccaz `qzzaeti``fqet dagoòt bip tf ja ayqocojzitad }otb ie ar ieta qe`biemad ì~otic gcf}% Bf} ìe tbop zadqàq~}izd ~zappqza fe tba ar`biema zita6

Ot op ~fppojca tbit i jqdmat pqz~cqp ki bac~ za+jicieà ie a`fefk }bo`b op mzf}oem tff ptzfemc"ied ot op fgtae tba ìpa tbit jom ì~otic oegcf}p `foeòda }otb i ptzfem dfkapto` a`fefk—jftbgfzaome ied dfkapto` oewaptfzp }iet tf ~iztoò~ita oe tba jffk/% Oe tbop paepa# i jqdmat pqz~cqpkombt bac~ }otb tba fwazicc ki`zf+~zfjcak fg i jffkoem a`fefk% Jqt tbop dfap cottca tf iddzapptba ~zfjcak fg aràppowa gfzaome oegcf}p% It japt# ot lqpt `zaitap zffk gfz tba gfzaome ar~aedotqzapj `feptzioeoem dfkapto` ar~aedotqza# }bo`b kombt }acc biwa i bombaz pfòic ~zofzot%

Oe ~zi`toà tba zai`tofe fg kfpt fg tba `fqetzoap fg Aipt Ipoi bip jaae tf oetazwaea oe tba gfzaomear`biema kizhat ied ptazoco|a tba kfeatiz agga`t fg tba jqocd+q~ oe gfzaome ar`biema zapazwap%Tba qpqic izmqkaet imioept tbop—tbit tba yqipo+gopìc `fpt gzfk tba oetazapt doggazaetoic jat}aaetba dfkapto` oetazapt zita ied tba zatqze fe tba gfzaome zapazwa ippat bacd—bip eft bid kq`bzacawieà oe tba :>>>p% Dfkapto` oetazapt zitap biwa jaae cf} dqzoem kfpt fg tba daìda "oeotoicc

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97

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92

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the impossible trinity and capital flows in east asia

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