Surviving Changing Markets Mission Impossible?. Mission Impossible

Download Surviving Changing Markets Mission Impossible?. Mission Impossible

Post on 25-Dec-2015




7 download

Embed Size (px)


<ul><li> Slide 1 </li> <li> Surviving Changing Markets Mission Impossible? </li> <li> Slide 2 </li> <li> Mission Impossible </li> <li> Slide 3 </li> <li> Your Assignment Manage Your Mortgage Company Through Changing Markets: Minimize Product Risk Avoid Repurchase Requests Reduce Overhead at the Right Time Keep your Warehouse Lender Happy Goal: Survive with Your Net Worth and your Warehouse Line Intact! </li> <li> Slide 4 </li> <li> Causes of Changes in Mortgage Industry Interest Rate Cycles Graph of Interest Rates from 1980 to 2003 Includes Mortgage Origination Volume Employment in the Mortgage Industry Change in Products Acceptable to Investors The primary cause of the current downturn is the use of stated income to qualify borrowers for loans they cannot afford to pay </li> <li> Slide 5 </li> <li> Mortgage Industry Cycles Source: Mortgage Bankers Association of America </li> <li> Slide 6 </li> <li> Risks Faced in this Market Repurchase requests Unsaleable loans Lack of liquidity Lack of Net Worth Excess Overhead Changing Loan Guidelines Loss of Warehouse lines </li> <li> Slide 7 </li> <li> The Survival Solution: PLANNING Success is not an accidentit is always accompanied by a plan. --(Dave Hershman in Mortgage Daily, 5/25/04) </li> <li> Slide 8 </li> <li> Planning and Evaluating Options Defend Against Repurchase Requests Sell Loans PRIOR to Funding Get Additional Liquidity if Needed Know Your Breakeven Point Make Cost Cuts Until You are Profitable Avoid Warehouse Default by Keeping Covenants </li> <li> Slide 9 </li> <li> Defend Against Repurchase Requests Get servicing records from investor Contact borrower to determine whether payments were made Bring borrower current through direct contact or broker Go after brokers &amp; borrowers for fraud Hire a good advisor and/or attorney Re-negotiate Sale Contracts to reduce repurchase risk: EPD periods and Reps &amp; warrants </li> <li> Slide 10 </li> <li> Sell Loans PRIOR to Funding Changing Guidelines are the Number One reason that mortgage companies have been failing Forward Commitments do not typically guard against guideline changes Bulk selling presents an unacceptable risk at this time for even largest sellers Flow selling to trusted investors on a prior-approved basis is least risky </li> <li> Slide 11 </li> <li> Lack of Liquidity Liquidity is your cash and assets easily converted to cash Allows the company to make haircuts and margin calls required by lenders The resource used to negotiate on repurchase requests The life-blood of your business Can be added through equity, lines of credit or subordinated debt </li> <li> Slide 12 </li> <li> Know Your Breakeven Point: In order to plan your success, you need to know your breakeven point. Must be able to split fixed versus variable costs Formula: Indirect Expenses divided by Net Revenue Percentage </li> <li> Slide 13 </li> <li> Breakeven Calculation 1.Calculate Indirect Expenses (total expenses less commissions and loan- related costs) 2.Calculate Net Production Revenue as a percent of Indirect Expenses 3.Divide Indirect Expenses by the percentage derived in #2 </li> <li> Slide 14 </li> <li> Breakeven Example Monthly Production of $30MM Revenue of $300,000 Total Expenses of $225,000 include: Commissions of $100,000 Direct Loan Expenses (appraisals, credit reports, underwriting fees, Etc) of $50,000 </li> <li> Slide 15 </li> <li> Breakeven Example Revenue as a percent of production: Assumptions:Calculate Net Revenues: Production $30,000,000Gross Revenue $ 300,000 Less Direct Expenses: Total Revenue $ 300,000 Commissions $ (100,000) Expenses: Other Direct Costs $ (50,000) Commissions $ 100,000Net Revenues $ 150,000 Direct Loan Costs $ 50,000Divided by Production $ 30,000,000 Other (Indirect) $ 75,000Net Revenue as % of Production0.50% Total Expenses $ 225,000Indirect Expenses: $ 75,000 Divided by Net % Revenue0.50% BREAKEVEN $ 15,000,000 </li> <li> Slide 16 </li> <li> Project Your Staffing Needs: Calculate number of loans each type of employee can handle in a month Create spreadsheet with various monthly volumes as the column heading and each type of employee as a row heading Plot out the number of each type of staff needed for each level of volume considered likely </li> <li> Slide 17 </li> <li> Make Cuts When Production Falls The best way to preserve capital is to reduce staff as quickly as possible Dont wait until you see losses to cut staffuse your projections to determine timing </li> <li> Slide 18 </li> <li> Warehouse Line Default Risk Major Covenants include: Minimum Net Worth Covenant Maximum Leverage Minimum Liquidity Restriction on Losses Restriction on Distributions </li> <li> Slide 19 </li> <li> Covenant Formulas: Adjusted Net Worth: GAAP Net Worth less officer receivables, illiquid assets (real estate, stock); plus subordinated debt and servicing portfolio Leverage: Total liabilities divided by Adjusted Net Worth Liquidity or Current Ratio: Current Assets divided by Current Liabilities </li> <li> Slide 20 </li> <li> Keys to Avoiding Covenant Violations Use your projections to cut costs before you incur losses Use your breakeven analysis to plan your overall approachadding new products, moving into new geographic areas, etc. Use off-balance sheet financing to avoid leverage and current ratio problems </li> <li> Slide 21 </li> <li> Summary This is a cyclical business-plan early and often! Pre-sell all loans prior to funding to avoid guideline shifts Vigorously defend against existing and future repurchase requests Dont wait to cut costs-when you see losses on your financial statements, its too late! Manage your capital and leverage to avoid covenant violations Look into off-balance sheet financing to provide flexibility Keep your capital intact and get to Mission accomplished! </li> </ul>