Dr. Louis W. Uccellini Director

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Sixth FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC Data Users' Workshop Boulder, CO

October 30, 2012

The Important Role of Satellite Data in Advancing the Weather Forecasts

1

2

• “The Weatherman is not a Moron” • What NCEP Does • How is NCEP Measured • How has NCEP Changed • Status of Central Computer System • Use of Satellite Data – Joint Center for Satellite

Data Assimilation • Advancing GPSRO in NCEP Models (COSMIC2) • New Building • Summary

Outline

3

THE WEATHERMAN IS NOT A MORON

IN THE HOCUS POCUS REALM OF PREDICTING THE FUTURE, WEATHER FORECASTING STANDS OUT AS AN AREA OF GENUINE, MEASURABLE PROGRESS. YOUR OWN EXPERIENCE MAY DIFFER. BY NATE SILVER

September 9, 2012

4

From the inside, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction looked like a cross between a submarine command center and a Goldman Sachs trading floor.

Quoted from “The Weatherman is not a Moron” New York Times Magazine, September 9, 2012

5

• Weather prediction has progressed when most other predictions have failed

• Progress can be “measured”/verified in a quantitative way

• Prediction capabilities include uncertainty and have already been integrated into key decision support

• Actually goes as far as stating the NWS does the best job in conveying uncertainty in forecast products

“The Weatherman is not a Moron” - Nate Silver, New York Times

6

What NCEP Does

7

Locations of NCEP Centers

Space Weather Prediction Center

NCEP Central Operations Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydromet Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center

National Hurricane Center Storm Prediction Center

Aviation Weather Center

8

What Does NCEP Do?

- Model Development, Implementation and Applications for Global and Regional Weather, Climate, Oceans and now Space Weather

- International Partnerships in Ensemble Forecasts

- Data Assimilation including the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation

- Super Computer, Workstation and Network Operations

“From the Sun to the Sea”

• Solar Monitoring, Warnings and Forecasts

• Climate Seasonal Forecasts • El Nino – La Nina Forecast • Weather Forecasts to Day 7 • Extreme Events (Hurricanes,

Severe Weather, Snowstorms, Fire Weather)

• Aviation Forecasts and Warnings • High Seas Forecasts and Warnings

8

9

How is NCEP Measured

10

14 April 2012 Great Plains Outbreak

• 60 Tornadoes (1 EF4, 3 EF3 & 3 EF2) • Outlook first issued 7 days in advance; Moderate Risk 3 days in

advance; High Risk 2 days in advance (only 2nd time) • NWS average warning lead time (Tornadoes) : 13 minutes • 6 Fatalities in Woodward, OK near midnight • FEMA/State/local emergency managers engaged starting 3 days

before the event

11

14 April Great Plains Outbreak • “Anyone tuned into a television or weather

service last week would have been hard pressed to miss the news that dangerous storms were brewing in the Midwest. Clearly, these storms were meant to be taken seriously.” -- Kansas City Star

• “The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla., which specializes in tornado forecasting, took the unusual step of issuing a stern warning about the oncoming storms more than 24 hours in advance.” -- Christian Science Monitor

• “I really think people took the warnings and they took them very seriously. We had more notice on this system than you normally do. You normally are looking at a couple of hours’ notice. Well, this one had almost two days’ notice.” -- Kansas Gov. Sam Brownback

• “We'd been on the lookout for it for three days. We were as ready as we could have been.” -- Larry Hill, Thurman , IA (AP) resident whose home was destroyed

Snowmageddon: All Charts Valid 12Z February 6, 2010

Storm system predicted 7+ days in advance; potential for heavy snow (up to 3 feet) 3-5 days in advance States implement COOP plans, airlines cancel flights, retail industry pre-stocks shelves

Surface Analysis 7 day forecast 6 day forecast 5 day forecast

4 day forecast 3 day forecast 2 day forecast 1 day forecast

• States declare emergency days before snow

• Airlines cancel thousands of flights at least a day in advance, reduced recovery time after the storm

• Stores adjust to optimize retail sales entire week before the storm – Low to no impact on GNP1

• Federal disaster declared; facilitates snow removal, and faster recovery!

Impacts “Snowmageddon”

1Some studies (Liscio Reports from 1993-1996) show that major NE snowstorms in the 1990s negatively impacted economic indices for months after the event, including GNP.

14

15

How has NCEP Changed

o Collaborative forecast o Increasing reliance on multi-model ensembles o Test beds o Enhanced R2O with larger research community

16

Increasing Collaboration Within NCEP Service Centers and the WFOs

• SPC/WFO – Watch “by county”

• HPC/WFO – Winter Weather Desks – Medium Range: Days 4-7/NDFD – Alaska Desk

• AWC/WFO/CWSU – Collaborative Convective

Forecast Product • CPC/ Regions/WFO/RFC

– Hazard Assessment – Seasonal outlooks/CTB

• OPC/WFO – Near shore High seas

• HPC-TPC-OPC-AR-PR – Unified Surface Analysis!

• SWPC – AWC – AR – Solar/Aviation Products

17

Increasing Reliance on Ensembles “The Next Revolution in Weather Forecasts”

• Multi-model ensembles now used across entire spectrum – Climate: NCEP Climate

Forecast System (CFS) now used within EUROPSIP Partnership (ECMWF, UKMet, MeteoFrance)

• Medium Range: GEFS part of North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS)

• Short Range: Short Range Ensemble Forecast System (SREF) – based entirely on WRF cores

• Mesoscale – experimental Hi Res ensembles applied to tornado outbreaks

Storm Prediction Center - Storm Scale Ensembles

Hazardous Weather Testbed

SPC SSEO

SPC SSEO

SSEO – 7 model Storm Scale Ensemble of Opportunity

6 hour ensemble of max Updraft Helicity (UH) valid ending 00Z April 28

6 hour smoothed ensemble neighborhood (40 km) probability of UH > 25 m2/s2 valid ending 00Z 28 April

OU-CAPS Storm Scale Ensemble

Accumulated over 24-hr period 12 – 36 hrs into forecast

• EMC WRF Developmental Test Center, NASA/ NOAA/DoD Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation

• CPC Climate Test Bed

• NHC Joint Hurricane Test Bed

• HPC Hydrometeorological Test Bed

• SPC Hazardous Weather Test Bed with NSSL

• SWPC Space Weather Prediction Test Bed with AFWA

• AWC Aviation Weather Test Bed

• OPC linked with EMC’s Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch

Test Beds Service – Science Linkage with the Outside Community

19

20

Working Better with the Research Community: Recent Data Assimilation Upgrade

• GSI Hybrid EnKF-3DVAR Upgrade – May 22, 2012

– EnKF hybrid system – New version of Forecast model – Use of NPP Advanced Microwave

Technology Sensor (ATMS) – 7 months after launch

– Use of GPSRO bending angles (replace refractivity)

Current SREF Mean

EnKF Hybrid GDAS Package Parallel -

Northern Hemisphere

GFS operational 48 h forecast verifying 5/13/12 1200 UTC

GFS hybrid 48 h forecast verifying 5/13/12 1200 UTC

ECMWF 48 h forecast verifying 5/13/12 1200 UTC Verifying analysis 5/13/12 1200 UTC

– Use of GOES-13 and GOES-15 sounder data

– Improved Quality Control of NASA AIRS data

– Improved observation errors for NOAA SBUV (Ozone) data

– Fewer Dropouts – Improved tropical cyclone forecasts

(ESRL, GSFC, UOK, EMC)

21

22

Status of Central Computer System

2011

Computing Capability “reliable, timely and accurate”

Web access to models as they run on the CCS

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

JULJANJULJANJULJANJULJANJULJANJULJANJULJANJULJANJULJANJULJANJULJANJUL

Popularity of NCEP Models Web Page

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

• Current computers – IBM Power6 – 73.1 trillion calculations/sec – 2 billion observations/day – 27.8 million model fields/day – Primary: Gaithersburg, MD – Backup: Fairmont, WV – Guaranteed switchover in 15

minutes • Next generation computer:

by Oct 2013 – IBM iDataPlex Intel/Linux – 208 trillion calc/sec – Primary: Reston, VA – Backup: Orlando, FL

23

24

Air Quality

WRF NMM/ARW Workstation WRF

WRF: ARW, NMM, NMMB GFS, Canadian Global Model

Regional NAM

WRF NMMB

North American Ensemble Forecast System

Hurricane GFDL HWRF

Global Forecast System

Dispersion ARL/HYSPLIT

Foreca

st

Severe Weather

Rapid Refresh for Aviation

Climate Forecast System

Short-Range Ensemble Forecast

NOAA’s Model Production Suite

GFS MOM4 NOAH Sea Ice

NOAH Land Surface Model

Coupled

Global Data Assimilation

Oceans HYCOM

WaveWatch III

NAM/CMAQ

24

Regi

onal

DA

Satellites + Radar 99.9%

~2B Obs/Day

NOS – OFS • Great Lakes • Northern

Gulf of Mex • Columbia R.

Bays • Chesapeake • Tampa • Delaware

Space Weather

ENLIL

Regi

onal

DA

25

Importance of the JCSDA: Helping to solidify the R2O process for

expanded use of satellite data in operational model systems

Circa 1990s

• Increase use of satellite radiances in operational model • No standards for fast forward radiative transfer scheme • Taking 2+ years to incorporate operational satellite

data into operational numerical models (over 40% of expected lifetime)

• Very little (if any) use of research satellite data in operational models

• Very little exchange among various operational centers, especially within the U.S.; Basically, a nonfunctional R2O process

26

27

National Research Council Report (2000): Valley of Death

28

Launch List – Model Implementation Process

EMC NCO

R&D Operations Delivery

Criteria

Transition from Research to Operations

Requirements

EMC

Schematics in the Model Transition Process

OPS Life cycle Support Service Centers

NOAA Research

Concept of Operations

Service Centers

User

Obs

erva

tion

Sy

stem

Field Offices

Effort

EMC and NCO have critical roles in the transition from NOAA R&D to operations

Forecast benefits, Efficiency, IT Compatibility, Sustainability

Operations to Research

Valley of Death Other Agencies

& International

29

Launch List – Model Implementation Process

EMC NCO

R&D Operations Delivery

Criteria

Transition from Research to Operations

Requirements

EMC

Schematics in the Model Transition Process

OPS Life cycle Support Service Centers

NOAA Research

Concept of Operations

Service Centers

User

Obs

erva

tion

Sy

stem

Field Offices

Effort

EMC and NCO have critical roles in the transition from NOAA R&D to operations

Other Agencies

& International

Forecast benefits, Efficiency, IT Compatibility, Sustainability

Operations to Research

Test Beds JCSDA

CTB WRF DTC

JHT :

Valley of Death

.

30

NASA/Earth Science Division

US Navy/Oceanographer and Navigator of the Navy and NRL

NOAA/NESDIS NOAA/NWS

NOAA/OAR

US Air Force/Director of Weather

Mission:

…to accelerate and improve the quantitative use of research and operational satellite data in weather, ocean, climate and environmental analysis and prediction models.

Vision:

An interagency partnership working to become a world leader in applying satellite data and research to operational goals in environmental analysis and prediction

JCSDA Partners, Vision, Mission

31

JCSDA History NASA/NOAA collaboration

(Uccellini, Einaudi, Purdom, MacDonald) initiated in 2000 Concern about US leadership in

satellite data technology and instrumentation not replicated in user applications, e.g. NWP

GMAO (DAO), NCEP and STAR (ORA) – first participants on technical level

Emphasis on balanced approach involving Modeling Computing Observational data

Need to provide “O2R” infrastructure to research communities

Inclusion of DoD (NRL Monterey and AFWA) triggered by NPOESS IPO sponsorship of JCSDA starting in 2002

Science priorities established by Advisory Board

First permanent Director hired in 2004 (John Le Marshall)

Memorandum of Agreement at Associate Administrative Level signed May 2008

NASA/NOAA provide first JCSDA computer in 2011

32

JCSDA Science Priorities

Radiative Transfer Modeling (CRTM) Preparation for assimilation of data from new instruments Clouds and precipitation Assimilation of land surface observations Assimilation of ocean surface observations Atmospheric composition; chemistry and aerosols

Driving the activities of the Joint Center since 2001, approved by the Science Steering Committee

Overarching goal: Help the operational services improve the quality of their prediction products via improved and accelerated use of satellite data and related research

JCSDA accomplishments

33

Common assimilation infrastructure (NOAA, GMAO, AFWA) Community radiative transfer model - CRTM (all partners) Numerous new satellite data assimilated operationally, e.g. MODIS (winds

and AOD), AIRS and IASI hyperspectral IR radiances, GPSRO sensors (COSMIC, GRAS, GRACE), SSMI/S, Windsat, Jason-2,… Bending angle assimilation for GPSRO

Advanced sensors tested for operational readiness, e.g. ASCAT, MLS, SEVIRI (radiances),…

Ongoing methodology improvement for sensors already assimilated, e.g. AIRS, GPSRO, SSMIS,…

Improved physically based SST analysis Adjoint sensitivity diagnostics

Applied to GSI/GEOS5 by GMAO Applied to FNMOC by NRL

Common NOAA/NASA land data assimilation system (GSFC, NOAA, AFWA)

OSE capability illustrating importance of satellite data OSSE capability in support of COSMIC-2, JPSS, GOES-R, Decadal Survey

and other missions Comprehensive suite of data impact experiments for all major observing

systems using NCEP GFS New supercomputer at GSFC (jointly funded by NASA and NOAA, installed

and operated by NASA for the Joint Center) Part of NOAA/NESDIS-funded supercomputer (S4) located at UW Madison

available for JCSDA investigators Hand-off to NCEP of NPP ATMS data assimilation capability (collaboration

between EMC, NESDIS, NASA, JCSDA); implemented in operations on May 22 2012, 7 months after launch

Science Enhancements to CRTM Aerosols and impacts on sounding channels Surface Emissivity for microwave and infrared bands State of the art Line-by-line calculation capability

OSEs/Adjoint studies conducted on value of satellite data

JCSDA accomplishments (II)

34

• HIRS sounder radiances • AMSU-A sounder radiances • AMSU-B sounder radiances • ATMS sounder radiances • AIRS* sounder radiances • IASI sounder radiances • GOES sounder radiances • GOES, Meteosat, GMS winds • GOES precipitation rate • SSM/I precipitation rates • TRMM* precipitation rates • SSM/I ocean surface wind speeds • ERS-2* ocean surface wind

vectors • 1Quikscat* ocean surface wind

vectors ASCAT • JASON ocean surface altimetry

Satellite Data Used Operationally

35

• AVHRR SST • AVHRR vegetation fraction • AVHRR surface type • Multi-satellite snow cover • Multi-satellite sea ice • SBUV/2 ozone profile & total

ozone • MODIS* polar winds • GPS Radio Occultation

– COSMIC, METOP/GRAS, GRACE,* SAC-C*, TerraSAR-X*

• SSMIS • OMI* • MSG Seviri

* Indicates Research Satellite or Sensor

As of September, 2012 1 No longer available

36

Assessing the Value of GPSRO Data Through Adjoint Studies Conducted at:

• GMAO • NRL

Total Impact

beneficial

Total Impact • AMSU-A radiances have the largest impact globally, but conventional data (raob, aircraft) still very important. GPSRO now a significant contributor. Impact Per Observation • Raobs get large weight in the analysis and have large IPO. Ship obs are few, but are located where there are few other in-situ data.

Impact of Various Observing Systems in GSI/GEOS-5 01 Sep – 31 Dec 2010 00z

Impact Per Observation

37

38

Much larger relative impact of AMVs in Navy system compared to NASA’s. Note that IASI has moved up in NASA system compared to 2010 (previous slide), and GPSRO has moved down as COSMIC ages/degrades.

http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/products/forecasts/systems/fp/obs_impact/

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/obsens/fnmoc/obsens_main_od.html

FSD diagnostics (Gelaro, 5th WMO Impact Workshop, Sedona 2012)

39

Operational ECMWF system September to December 2008. Averaged over all model layers and entire global atmosphere. % contribution of different observations to reduction in forecast error.

Courtesy: Carla Cardinali and Sean Healy, ECMWF

Forecast error contribution (%)

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

O3: Ozone from satellites METEOSAT IR Rad (T,H)

MTSATIMG: Japanese geostationary sat vis and IR imagery GOES IR rad (T,H)

MODIS: Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (winds) GMS: Japanese geostationary satellite winds

SSMI: Special Sensor MW Imager (H and sfc winds) AMSRE: MW imager radiances (clouds and precip)

MHS: MW humidity sounder on NOAA POES and METOP (H) MSG: METEOSAT 2nd Generation IR rad (T,H)

HIRS: High-Resol IR Sounder on NOAA POES (T,H) PILOT: Pilot balloons and wind profilers (winds)

Ocean buoys (Sfc P, H and winds) METEOSAT winds

GOES winds AMSU-B: Adv MW Sounder B on NOAA POES

SYNOP: Sfc P over land and oceans,H, and winds over oceans QuikSCAT: sfc winds over oceans

TEMP: Radiosonde T, H, and winds GPSRO: RO bending angles from COSMIC, METOP

AIREP: Aircraft T, H, and winds AIRS: Atmos IR Sounder on Aqua (T,H)

IASI: IR Atmos Interferometer on METOP (T,H) AMSU-A: Adv MW Sounder A on Aqua and NOAA POES (T)

Note: 1) Sounders on Polar Satellites reduce forecast error most 2) Results are relevant for other NWP Centers, including NWS/NCEP

GPSRO Influence on Other Observations

• GPSRO observations are unbiased – Can be assimilated w/o correction – Help identify biases in OTHER observations – Help identify biases in models

• GPSRO has sharper vertical weighting – Therefore has fine vertical resolution – Detects vertical structures not visible to

radiometric sounders • Particularly beneficial in resolving the tropopause

40

41

• Thousands of soundings per day

• Implemented along with Hybrid DA : Improved use of GPSRO – use of Bending angle rather than Refractivity – New and improved forward model to reduce singularities – Data used up to 50km from 30km for refractivities – Improved quality control (much less data rejected)

• Leveraging total system by research community

COSMIC 2 Upcoming Opportunities/Challenges

Observation = QC DA Models Post Processing

Prediction System

COSMIC Occultations–3 Hrs Coverage COSMIC-2 Occultations – 3 Hrs Coverage

From COSMIC 1 to COSMIC 2 Comparison of sounding

distribution over three hour periods between COSMIC and fully implemented COSMIC 2 is shown.

• With COSMIC II • 8000-12000 profiles per day using

GPS and GALILEO as sources • Average profile within 45 minutes • Full vertical profile – deeper into

lower troposphere • Still Will Feature

• All weather • Day and night • No bias or drift

• For Space Weather:

• 0.001 TEC Unit relative • Electron Density Profile 10% • S4 index uncertainty – 0.1

• (Scintillation) • Requires < 15 mins data latency for Space

Wx situational awareness.

• Situational Awareness - Specification of real time ionospheric Total Electron Content (GPS signal delay) and spatial extent, duration, and intensity of scintillation (GPS signal loss-of-lock) are top priorities for NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center. – Data latency of COSMIC 1 prohibits its use in current real/time space

weather applications

• Modeling - Assimilation of near real/time (latency between 15 to 60 minutes) line-of-sight electron content from COSMIC 2 in empirical (US-TEC) and coupled physics-based numerical ionospheric forecast models (IPE) and whole atmosphere forecast models (WAM). – Retrospective studies using COSMIC 1 profiles clearly demonstrate its

value, particularly the global coverage, compared to other traditional types of ionospheric data streams. 43

COSMIC 2 Applications for Space Weather

COSMIC Supports Whole Atmosphere Model Development

Whole Atmosphere Model (WAM=extended GFS)

Ionosphere-Plasmasphere-Electrodynamics (IPE) Model

• WAM=extended GFS has been developed for NWP & SWx applications.

• WAM includes neutral-plasma coupling in the upper atmosphere.

• COSMIC provides ionospheric plasma information.

• COSMIC data is used to validate the ionosphere model.

Neutral Dynamics & Energetics

Ionospheric Plasma dynamics & Electrodynamics

Neutral-Plasma Coupling

45

• Research satellite being tested: Aquarius for sea surface salinity

• Operational – JPSS: ATMS, CrIS, VIIRS – GOESR: ABI, 15 minute full disc coverage

• Research – Soil Moisture Active-Passive (SMAP) satellite (launch

date: 2014) – Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) satellite (launch date:

2014) • International

– China FengYun-3 (FY3) satellite (launch date: 2013) – COSMIC2

• First launch , 6 satellites, early 2016 • Second launch (not funded yet), 6 satellites, polar orbits, 2018.

Other Upcoming Satellite Systems

ABI Scans (in 30 min)

Full Disk (2X 15 min)

Mesoscale (60X 30 sec)

CONUS (6X 5 min)

GOES-R ABI offers more bands, more often

ABI Spectral Bands

47

New Building

NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction

48

• Four-story, 268,762 square foot building in Riverdale, MD housing 800+ Federal employees, and contractors • 5 NCEP Centers (NCO, EMC, HPC, OPC, CPC) • NESDIS Center for Satellite Applications and

Research (STAR) • NESDIS Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) • OAR Air Resources Laboratory

• Includes 40 spaces for visiting scientists • Includes 464 seat auditorium/

conference center, library, deli, fitness center and health unit

• Move completed Aug 2012

49

Photo Credit: UofMD

Main Entrance

Operations Area

Atrium

Outdoor Terrace

50

Summary

51

• NCEP has made tremendous progress in improving forecasts especially for extreme events

• Worked to improve the R2O process through a test bed approach – providing “O2R” to accelerate R2O

• COSMIC/GPSRO making fundamental improvements in operational models

• COSMIC 2 offers potential for even more of an impact for terrestrial and space weather forecasts – Spatial distribution

• NCEP is in the new NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction – Come visit us

Summary

52

Appendix

Weather and Climate Operational Supercomputing System Status

• On track to complete the transition by Aug 2013 • Fully funded on Bridge and Task Order 002 for FY13

– Year 2 of the 5 year base period for FY13 • SPA and Dataflow team on Tide (Reston system) • Acceptance started for Tide 10/18/2012

– Met benchmark performance requirements during Live Test Demonstration on 10/18

– Completed 72-hour burn and no issues – Acceptance planned for Gyre Dec 2012

• Plan to onboard the NOAA transition team by 10/26/2012 • Continue to work through architectural/software challenges

with the new WCOSS system

Recent Model/DA Implementations at NCEP

• New EnKF hybrid data assimilation system – Implemented at NCEP – based on collective

research effort – Includes use of NPP advanced microwave

sounder – 7 months after launch! – Improves the use of GPSRO – bending angle

54

Comparison of 5 day forecast anomaly correlation at 500mb between forecasts from previous analysis system (black) and new hybrid analysis system (red) for period from August – October 2010.

Control Hybrid

Assimilation of COSMIC-I and ground-based GPS data into US-TEC

(See COSMIC Workshop Poster by Chi-Yen Lin et

US-TEC • NOAA’s operational product • 15-minute cadence, 15 to 30

minute latency, 2-3 TEC unit accuracy (~34-48cm delay at L1 frequencies)

• Target users: Positioning and Navigation Community

Slant TEC path over US UT 00 Feb 5, 2008

COSMIC-I RO ground-based GPS

Assimilation Analysis Background Model

Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE)

OSSE Analysis “Truth” Background Model

Data Assimilation

Recent Observation Simulation Experiment on JCSDA Computer System 500 hPa Anomaly Correlations

15 Aug – 30 Sep 2010 No Satellite / No Conventional Data

Northern Hemisphere

Southern Hemisphere

Example of OSE diagnostics (J. Jung, 5th WMO Impact Workshop, Sedona 2012)

500 hPa Anomaly Correlations 15 Aug – 30 Sep 2010

57

No AMSU-A / No MHS

Northern Hemisphere Southern Hemisphere

5th WMO Observing Systems Impact Workshop

500 hPa Anomaly Correlations 15 Aug – 30 Sep 2010

58

No GPS-RO / No AMV

Northern Hemisphere Southern Hemisphere

5th WMO Observing Systems Impact Workshop

Summary of JCSDA OSEs

• NCEP operational version of the GDAS (May 2011) at the operational resolution (T574L64) was used on the JCSDA computing system (at GSFC)

• No Satellite / No Conventional data statistics show significant impact

• Impact from individual sensors was less than expected − other remaining instruments appear to compensate the loss of any one

instrument

• Most instrument types have a positive impact on wind forecasts in the tropics − Conventional data, AMSU, AMV, GPS-RO, Aircraft, Rawinsondes

59

60

Extra Slides

61

Historical Use of GPSRO Data at NCEP

s1, s2,

α1, α2

α

N

T, Pw, P

Raw measurements of phase of the two signals (L1 and L2)

Bending angles of L1 and L2

(neutral) bending angle

Refractivity

Ionospheric correction Abel transfrom

Hydrostatic equilibrium, eq of state, apriori information

Clocks correction, orbits determination, geometric delay

What do we “want” to assimilate?

Atmospheric products

GPS RO Refractivity vs. Bending angle experiment design

• Uses COSMIC 1-6, SAC-C, TerraSAR-X, METOP/GRAS, GRACE-A, C/NOFS

• Period 1 February to 22 March 2011 • Non-Hybrid GSI • T382L64

JCSDA Summer Colloquium, 07/26/2012

64

66

Value of GPSRO Data for NWP

67

Operational ECMWF system September to December 2008. Averaged over all model layers and entire global atmosphere. % contribution of different observations to reduction in

forecast error.

Courtesy: Carla Cardinali and Sean Healy, ECMWF

Forecast error contribution (%)

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

O3: Ozone from satellites METEOSAT IR Rad (T,H)

MTSATIMG: Japanese geostationary sat vis and IR imagery GOES IR rad (T,H)

MODIS: Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (winds) GMS: Japanese geostationary satellite winds

SSMI: Special Sensor MW Imager (H and sfc winds) AMSRE: MW imager radiances (clouds and precip)

MHS: MW humidity sounder on NOAA POES and METOP (H) MSG: METEOSAT 2nd Generation IR rad (T,H)

HIRS: High-Resol IR Sounder on NOAA POES (T,H) PILOT: Pilot balloons and wind profilers (winds)

Ocean buoys (Sfc P, H and winds) METEOSAT winds

GOES winds AMSU-B: Adv MW Sounder B on NOAA POES

SYNOP: Sfc P over land and oceans,H, and winds over oceans QuikSCAT: sfc winds over oceans

TEMP: Radiosonde T, H, and winds GPSRO: RO bending angles from COSMIC, METOP

AIREP: Aircraft T, H, and winds AIRS: Atmos IR Sounder on Aqua (T,H)

IASI: IR Atmos Interferometer on METOP (T,H) AMSU-A: Adv MW Sounder A on Aqua and NOAA POES (T)

Note: 1) Sounders on Polar Satellites reduce forecast error most 2) Results are relevant for other NWP Centers, including NWS/NCEP

Total Impact

beneficial

Total Impact • AMSU-A radiances have the largest impact globally, but conventional data (raob, aircraft) still very important. GPSRO now a significant contributor. Impact Per Observation •Raobs get large weight in the analysis and have large IPO. Ship obs are few, but are located where there are few other in-situ data.

Impact of Various Observing Systems in GEOS-5 01 Sep – 31 Dec 2010 00z

Impact Per Observation

68

69 Much larger relative impact of AMVs in Navy system

http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/products/forecasts/systems/fp/obs_impact/

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/obsens/fnmoc/obsens_main_od.html

Example of FSO diagnostics (Gelaro, 5th WMO Impact Workshop, Sedona 2012)

Forecast impact experiment from Dec. 2010 to Jan. 2011

Impact Impact / Obs. number

WMO Workshop on the Impact of Various Observing Systems on NWP Sedona – 22-25 May 2012

Example of FSO diagnostics (P. Moll, 5th WMO Impact Workshop, Sedona 2012)