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THE IMPACT OF THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT AT TRIP ORIGIN AND DESTINATION ON INDIVIDUAL MODE CHOICE: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF PORTLAND, OREGON By JIA FANG A THESIS PRESENTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF THE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF URBAN AND REGIONAL PLANNING UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA 2017

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THE IMPACT OF THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT AT TRIP ORIGIN AND DESTINATION ON INDIVIDUAL MODE CHOICE: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF PORTLAND, OREGON

By

JIA FANG

A THESIS PRESENTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL

OF THE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF URBAN AND REGIONAL PLANNING

UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA

2017

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© 2017 Jia Fang

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To my family, teachers and friends

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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

My special thanks go to my committee members Dr. Ruth Steiner, and Dr.

Sivaramakrishnan Srinivasan for their academic support and guidance throughout this

research. I sincerely thank Bud Reiff at Portland Metro Research Center for his patience

and time in providing me with detailed survey data of Portland, Oregon. I would also like

to thank the faculty and staff in the Department of Urban and Regional Planning for their

instruction and help. I am thankful to Changjie Chen, Guanqiong Guo, Wei Zhang,

Kaysie Salvatore, Huihui Nan and all my wonderful friends for their love and

encouragement. Last but not least, I would like to thank my mom, dad and little brother,

for their constant support in pursuing my degrees.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS page

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS .................................................................................................. 4

LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................ 7

LIST OF FIGURES .......................................................................................................... 8

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ............................................................................................. 9

ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................... 10

CHAPTER

1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................... 11

2 LITERATURE REVIEW .......................................................................................... 14

2.1 Relationship between the Built Environment and Travel Behavior .................... 14 2.2 Research on Mode Choice Behavior ................................................................ 15

2.3 Mode Choice Focusing on Non-Motorized Modes ............................................ 18 2.4 Research on Trip Chaining ............................................................................... 19 2.5 Roles of the Built Environment at Trip Origin and Destination .......................... 20

2.6 Summary .......................................................................................................... 22

3 METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................... 26

3.1 Study Area and Data Collection ........................................................................ 26 3.2 Definition of Independent Variables .................................................................. 28

3.2.1 Attributes of Alternative ........................................................................... 28 3.2.2 Socio-economic Characteristics .............................................................. 28

3.2.3 Trip Characteristics.................................................................................. 29 3.2.4 Built Environment Characteristics ............................................................ 29

3.2.4.1 Diversity ......................................................................................... 29 3.2.4.2 Density ........................................................................................... 31

3.2.4.3 Design ............................................................................................ 31 3.2.4.4 Accessibility/ Transportation supply ............................................... 33

3.3 Built Environment Factor Analysis .................................................................... 33

3.4 Descriptive Analyses ......................................................................................... 34 3.5 Correlation between Mode Choice and Independent Variables ........................ 39 3.6 Probabilistic Choice Theory .............................................................................. 42

4 MODEL RESULTS AND INTERPRETATION ......................................................... 43

4.1 Basic Model ...................................................................................................... 43 4.2 Partially Expanded Model with BE at Trip Origin .............................................. 45

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4.3 Fully Expanded Model with BE at Trip Destination ........................................... 46 4.4 Model with Trip Chaining as Interaction Term ................................................... 46

5 DISCUSSION ......................................................................................................... 51

6 CONCLUSION AND FUTURE RESEARCH ........................................................... 54

6.1 Conclusion ........................................................................................................ 54 6.2 Future Research ............................................................................................... 56

LIST OF REFERENCES ............................................................................................... 57

BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH ............................................................................................ 61

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LIST OF TABLES

Table page 3-1 Factor Analysis Result ........................................................................................ 35

3-2 Descriptive Statistics for Independent Variables by Mode .................................. 37

3-3 Difference in Mode Shares by Trip Purpose and Location ................................. 39

3-4 Correlations between Mode Choice (coded 0-1) and Independent Variables ..... 41

4-1 Model Results ..................................................................................................... 48

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LIST OF FIGURES

Figure page 3-1 Map of study area and the trip origins by Household Location ........................... 27

3-2 Scree Plot ........................................................................................................... 35

3-3 Defining Process of Built Environment Factors................................................... 36

5-1 Mean Walking Distance by Trip Chaining and Mode .......................................... 53

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LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS

BE Built Environment

PNR Park and Ride

TOD Transit Oriented Development

VMT Vehicle Miles Traveled

WNR Walk and Ride

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Abstract of Thesis Presented to the Graduate School of the University of Florida in Partial Fulfillment of the

Requirements for the Degree of Master of Urban and Regional Planning

THE IMPACT OF THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT AT TRIP ORIGIN AND DESTINATION ON INDIVIDUAL MODE CHOICE: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF PORTLAND, OREGON

By

Jia Fang

December 2017

Chair: Ruth L. Steiner Major: Urban and Regional Planning

Compact, walkable, mixed-use, and pedestrian-friendly urban environments help

decrease car-dependency and lead to green travel. This study investigates the impact

of built environment factors at trip origin and destination in shaping mode choice using

the 2011 Oregon Household Travel Survey in Portland, Oregon, which is important

because it supplements current research that has focused primarily on residential

neighborhood. In addition, the study measured the marginal contributions of not only

built environment factors, but their interaction with transit service level and trip chaining

behavior using the utility-based model.

The empirical modeling confirmed that the influence of the built environment at

trip destination on mode choice is significant and even stronger than that at trip origin.

Notable, urban compactness exerts far stronger impacts in promoting non-auto usage

than other built environment factors. Lastly, a high quality of the built environment at trip

destination will significantly improve the probability of walking among those who

participate in chain traveling.

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CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION

Since the 19th century, levels of auto ownership have risen significantly. It rose

fourfold from 1950 to 1990 all over the world (Lomborg, 2001). In 2016, approximately

17.5 million new cars were sold across the U.S, an unprecedented increase that has

continued to increase over the last seven years (Overly, 2017). Intensifying auto-

dependency has been blamed for climate change, greenhouse gas increases, traffic

congestion, conventional energy depletion and obesity. Many fields of study such as

transportation, public health, planning and environment health have made lots of efforts

to solve or alleviate these problems (Yang, Yan, Xiong, & Liu, 2013; Bhat, Sen, & Eluru,

2009; Cervero & Duncan, 2003).

The New Urbanism Movement, arising in the U.S. in the late 1980s, aims to solve

numerous urban issues associated with heavy auto-dependency by creating

environmentally friendly neighborhoods and encouraging non-auto use. Transit Oriented

Development (TOD), listed as one of the ten basic principles of New Urbanism

(Kelbaugh, 2002), is considered the most important principle of New Urbanism in that it

creates convenient traffic service and increases pedestrian-friendly communities.

Meanwhile, developing new strategies and policies on transportation and land use have

been proposed to discourage auto usage and reduce vehicle miles traveled (VMT). The

fundamental justification for these policies is the premise that the influence of the built

environment on traveler behavior is significant. Therefore, understanding how and to

what extent the built environment impacts traveler behavior will further support policy

makers with developmental suggestions. For example, if high levels of the built

environment lead to high ridership and more walking/biking trips, it is reasonable to

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assume that TOD residents would pay less transportation impact fees and fewer

parking spots will be built. In turn, these changes would reduce housing prices in those

areas.

In the past three decades, much attention has been paid to the relationship

between the built environment and travel behavior (Park, Choi, & Lee, 2015; Reilly &

Landis, 2002; McKibbin, 2011; Frank, Bradley, Kavage, Chapman, & Lawton, 2008). By

controlling for the characteristics of individuals and trips, a series of built environment

factors in three dimensions (diversity, density and design) have been examined by trip

purposes (e.g. commute, non-work trips, shopping trips, school trips and access trips).

Currently, most of research has focused on either residential neighborhoods or

specified places for activities. Very few have adequately specified the impact of the built

environment on whether they are measured at trip origin or destination. Therefore, as

trip chaining has become very important in people’s daily travel, research on how the

built environment interacted with trip chaining will help to better understand transport-

land use link.

Using the 2011 Oregon Household Travel Survey as well as detailed land-use

data of Portland, three objectives have been developed for this research:

1. Include an exhaustive set of mode choices in the analysis where access trips are

regarded as part of an entire trip;

2. Explore the different roles trip origin and destination play in mode choice

decision; in terms of significance of built environment factors;

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3. Examine the different impacts of the built environment at trip origin dependent on

transit service level and the different impacts of the built environment at trip

destination depending on whether it is a chain trip.

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CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 Relationship between the Built Environment and Travel Behavior

In the past, studies on travel behavior have mainly focused on the impact of

travel attributes and the socio-economic characteristics of the individual. Later, the link

between land use and transportation became widely recognized. As a result, many

studies began including land-use factors in travel behavior research (Aditjandra, pg 54-

65, 2013; Frank L. P., pg 44-52, 1994; Parks, pg 250-263, 2006). The LUTRAQ

Pedestrian Environment Factor (PEF) (1993) is a widely known survey that evaluates

neighborhood design on pedestrians evaluates non-motorized travel using a subjective

scale. Handy (1996) designated six neighborhoods in Austin, Texas as either traditional,

early-modern or late-modern to examine the impact of the urban form on pedestrian

choice. Cervero (1997) developed the concept of the 3Ds (density, diversity, and

design), which have had an increasing influence on many of the studies preceding it

However, the outcomes of many researches have little consistency. Cervero (1997)

confirmed the impact of density, land-use diversity and urban design on travel behavior,

“though the influence appears to be fairly marginal” (p. 199). Later, Boarnet and

Sarmiento (1996) found that the link between land-use and non-work-related travel

behavior was fairly weak and suggested all new research consider self-selection and

land-use variables be included as endogenous. In 2003, using the 1995 Portland

Metropolitan Activity Survey, Rajamani and Bhat et al. (2003) found that high levels of

mixed used development will promote walking for non-work travel, while Cervero and

Duncan (2003) contended that the impact of built environment factors are far less

impactful than travel and individual characteristics. Further they believe that stronger

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evidence is necessary in supporting land-use policy on travel behavior. One year later,

Lund and Cervero et al. (2004) found that, among design indicators, only those at

destination were significant. Recently, Ewing and Cervero (2010) discovered that

density is the weakest factor of the 3Ds, while Zhang (2012) noted that the

effectiveness of built environment factors differs across geographical locations and

sometimes they should work together to be effective. The reason for so much

inconsistency in the research could be because the studies focus on a different

geographical area. Different geographical areas can have different lifestyle and

demographic backgrounds, different accuracies in travel data and data collection (e.g.

Transportation Analysis Zone-based vs. half-buffer based, aggregate level vs.

disaggregate level), and different methods for measuring factors (e.g. entropy vs

dissimilarity of land uses).

Despite all the efforts that have been done by previous studies, it is still not clear

whether and to what extent the built environment impacts travel behavior.

2.2 Research on Mode Choice Behavior

A number of research approaches on land-use and travel behavior have been

used. These approaches include simulation studies, aggregate analyses, disaggregate

analyses, choice model and activity-based analyses (Handy S. L., 1996). Due to the

lack of high-quality travel data, the former two approaches were widely used in earlier

research (Frank L. P., pg 44-52, 1994; Lund, n.p., 2004; Friedman, pg 63-70, 1994;

Cervero R. G., pg 210-225, 1995).

Most recent studies on transport and land use link use disaggregate analyses

and choice model (Park, Choi, & Lee, 2015; Reilly & Landis, 2002; Zhang, Hong, Nasri,

& Shen, 2012; Lund, Cervero, & Willson, 2004), while other studies adopted activity-

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based analysis (Frank, Bradley, Kavage, Chapman, & Lawton, 2008; Xu, 2014).

Compared to aggregate analyses, disaggregate analyses measure at the individual and

household level. Many regression models have been estimated with different dependent

variables, including mode share, trip length, trip frequency, vehicle trips (VT) and

vehicle miles traveled (VMT).

Disaggregate studies do not directly reflect theories of choice processes while

the travel choice model is based on an individual’s utility of a particular alternative and

has a stronger theoretical basis (Handy S. L., 1996). Some of the research uses binary

or multinomial logit techniques which uses travel behavior to predict trip purpose. Using

the 1996 Bay Area Travel Survey, Reilly and Landis (2002) built multiple models that

probed the impact of urban form on travel behavior based on different purposes (non-

work trips, shopping trips and rapid transit train access trips). The study provided a

comprehensive examination on the built environment at residential areas, but ignored

the built environment at trip destination; the impact of which has been confirmed by

other studies (Handy S. L., 1996; Lund, Cervero, & Willson, 2004). Jae-Su Lee (2014)

compared two geographic scales (TAZ based and ¼ mile buffer) for both commute and

none-commute trips. The results confirmed the effectiveness of the built environment

and shows that the buffer-based measures are more reasonable. Only focusing on

commute trips, Chatman (2003) examined the impact of diversity and density at the

workplace on mode choice and found that employment density at the workplace could

reduce driving significantly. The study controlled for socioeconomic characteristics, but

failed to exclude the impact of travel characteristics and the built environment at trip

origin.

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Mode choice models were used to compare the different impact of the built

environment on travel behavior by neighborhood characteristics. Cervero and Radisch

(1995) compared travel behavior between two different neighborhoods (neo-traditional

and conventional suburban communities) and concluded that mode choice is

significantly affected by type of neighborhood. However, none of the mode-specific

indicators were included in the model and the only related indicator was a 0-1 dummy

variable; which was used to distinguish between the two neighborhoods. Hence, the

study failed to explain what aspects of urban form or attributes of the modes attributed

to the difference. Using two surveys from Boston and one from Hong Kong, Zhang

(2004) examined the impact of urban form in two geographically different areas. The

results indicated that the impact of land-use on driving was comparable to driving cost,

but the effectiveness of land-use strategies was place-based. Land-use data in the

study was collected based at the TAZ level, which was considered to be not accurate

enough by some studies (Reilly & Landis, 2002; Lee, Jin, & Lee, 2014; Park, Choi, &

Lee, 2015).

Lund and Cervero et al. (2004), focused on travel characteristics of TOD, their

study detailed a comprehensive analysis of the influence of TOD design on transit

ridership by trip purpose (commute, non-work and access trips) and trip data collected

at multiple levels. The study collected detailed neighborhood data of TOD sites in

California and surveyed TOD residents living within a half mile of a transit station. The

study found that it is necessary to discourage auto use by building streetscapes,

improving upon design and by increasing mixed-use development in TODs. However,

the impact of the urban environment might present as weak for TOD residents

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compared to non-TOD. Further, the shorter the travel distance to a station, an

individual will obtain fewer benefits of the well-designed environment. Therefore, it will

be helpful if the study could find if impacts of the built environment are felt based on

different transit service levels (for example, distance to station).

2.3 Mode Choice Focusing on Non-Motorized Modes

Before 2000, most research was motivated by promoting transit ridership and

decreasing auto-dependency. However, only a handful of studies included walking and

biking as an alternative mode (Loutzenheiser, 1997; Rajamani, Bhat, Handy, Knaap, &

Song, 2003). In response to the obesity crisis in America, increasing walking and biking

as forms of physical activity (PA) have become increasingly popular as of the early

2000s. Using household activity data from the Bay Area, Cervero and Duncan (2003)

examined the relationship between the built environment and non-motorized travel.

Applying the “3D” principle, they developed two separate binary choice models for

walking and biking trips. The study revealed that the impact of the built environment on

foot and bicycle travel was modest and sometimes even insignificant. They suggested

including micro-level variables, such as street furniture, should be considered in future

research.

To promote walking-related activities, some mode choice research focuses on

the transit users’ access to different types of model. From an environmental

perspective, promoting walking to transit would reduce air pollution. Additionally, transit

travel has little impact if most people drive to stations (Cervero, 2001). Using the 1992

Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) Rider Survey Data, Loutzenheiser (1997) built three

walk-based binary logit models and found that the built environment is secondary to

individual characteristics. The study provided a comprehensive analysis of station area

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characteristics, but failed to control for the built environment at trip origins. Lund and

Cervero et al. (2004)examined factors affecting non-motorized access to rail stations.

The model was not convincing enough to explain for the variation in access to mode

choice and it revealed that only bright lights were significant. Sungjin Park (2015)

measured built environment factors on micro-level walkability for access trips.

Socioeconomic status, trip origins and walking routes of 249 transit users were collected

for the study. The results suggested that micro-level walkability could significantly

promote walking travel. Since the survey was conducted in one station, the impact of

the built environment at the station was not able to be examined. In spite of the benefits

of walking as a primary model choice, research on walking behavior and access mode

choice is still quite rare.

In conclusion, most mode choice studies on the link between the built

environment and mode choice focused on either main trips or access trips. Lund and

Cervero et al. (2004) and Reilly and Landis (2002) might have conducted the only two

studies that examined both types of trips, but none of them analyzed these two types

simultaneously. Additionally, both of their access mode choice models relied on

indicators designed for analyzing main trips, which might reduce the accuracy of the

access model.

2.4 Research on Trip Chaining

In the past few decades, trip chaining has increased significantly. Studies show

that trips have increased mainly from work travel and, as a result, trip chaining has

become an important part of many commuters’ daily travel. According to the 2001

National Household Travel Survey, commuters who trip chained were more likely to use

private vehicles, while transit share for commuters who chain (3.6%) was lower than

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that for persons who made direct trips (6.3%) (McGuckin, Zmud, & Nakamoto, 2005).

As a result, many studies have estimated people’s travel behavior using “tours” instead

of single trips. Cynthia Chen (2008) studied the role of employment density on mode

choice by using tour as the analysis unit. Many studies have confirmed the importance

of trip chaining in mode choice decision. Henscher and Reyes (2000) developed a

series of discrete choice models to support the argument that increasing complexity of

trip chains reduce the utility of transit. Similarly, Lund and Cervero et al. (2004) found

that trip chaining had a significant impact on using mass transit by including trip

chaining behavior as a dummy variable. Meanwhile, they found that more mixed-use

environments seemed to promote walking, allowing transit riders to chain trip ends in a

more diverse setting. This indicated that those who chain are more likely to walk to

stations; as land-use at home end is more diverse. Chatman (2003) mentioned that high

diversity and density at the workplace will promote transit use. However, so far, trip

chaining is still rarely considered in studies that focus on the relationship between the

built environment and mode choice.

2.5 Roles of the Built Environment at Trip Origin and Destination

Empirical studies generally confirmed that the built environment characteristics of

both trip origins and destinations significantly affected the probability of travel mode

choice, given other variables in the choice model. Handy (1996) argued that

the environmental quality of both residential and trip destination will be important to

walking trips. Cervero et al. (1997) stated that built environmental characteristics of

origin and destination interchanges will influence travel demand, similar to price and

quality of competing modes. Evaluating the impact of land-use plans on VMT, Zhang

(2012) indicated that the model’s explanatory power could be increased if involving built

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environmental factors at destinations. However, much attention has been paid to

residential areas, while trip destination is overlooked. Only some research focusing on

specific trip purposes examine the location of trip destination in detail. Ewing et al.

(2004) examined the full range of built environment factors at school locations as

affecting mode choice for school trips in Gainesville, FL. However, the outcomes in the

analysis were only partly consistent with earlier research on school trips; requiring

further research. Using the 1995 Nationwide Personal Transportation Survey, Chatman

(2003) studied the impact of the built environment at the workplace on commuters’

travel behavior. The study found that employment density and land-use diversity at the

workplace have a significant impact on personal and commercial VMT and automobile

commuting. He explained that shops and services near the workplace would promote

non-auto commuting is because workers might “carry out activities on foot before,

during, and after the workday” (p. 193). Therefore, the study results confirmed the

importance of trip destination on travel behavior.

Several studies have examined both trip origin and destination together (Lee, Jin,

& Lee, 2014; Ewing & Cervero, 2010; Lund, Cervero, & Willson, 2004; Hess, 2001),

Some concluded that the impact of the built environment at origin and destination is

different. Handy (1996) found that travel distance, combined with the quality of the

walking environment at trip destination, outweighed the quality of the built

environment surrounding residential areas in travelers’ choice to walk. The binomial

model of drive-alone commuting developed by Cervero (2002) indicated that each built

environment factor at trip destination was more significant than that at trip origin.

Furthermore, after examining neighborhood design factors at both trip origin and

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destination, Lund and Cervero et al. (2004) found that for station area residents, the

only significant neighborhood-design variable was the level of street connectivity at the

destination. Similarly, Zhang M (2004) examined four built environment factors (job

densities, population densities, land-use balance, and cul-de-sac percentage) at both

origin and destination for main trips in Boston, Massachusetts. Surprisingly, the results

showed that all four indicators are significant at trip destination, while none are

significant at trip origin. Based on these findings, we might surmise that “origins might

play a different role from the destinations” (Chen, Gong, & Paaswell, 2008, p. 288).

However, all the above studies failed to provide convincing statistical evidence. Even

though a study (Cervero & Duncan, 2003) found that built environments have stronger

impacts in residential neighborhood than at destination in terms of the statistical fits, the

result was inconsistent with other studies’ findings.

Despite many empirical works, most previous studies focused on residential

neighborhoods. Only a few examined both sides of a trip simultaneously and none have

adequately specified the roles of built environment factors at trip origin and destination

in shaping mode choice.

2.6 Summary

By including a full set of modes (drive, walk and ride, park and ride, walk and

bike), this study will explore the different roles that the built environment at trip origin

and destination play during an individual’s travel decision making process. While also

studying how the built environment interacts with trip chaining and transit service level.

The three objectives are explained as followed:

1. Include an exhaustive set of mode choices in the analysis where access

trips are regarded as part of an entire trip. Generally, separate studies are conducted for

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main trips and access trips to transit on mode choice. The inclusion of transit as an

alternative instead of park and ride (PNR) and walk and ride (WNR) is inaccurate and

inappropriate in many choice situations. For example, travel time is different for a trip by

WNR and PNR; the impact of vehicle ownership on PNR is stronger compared to WNR.

In addition, the built environment exerts different influences on WNR and PNR. For

example, it has been confirmed by many studies that low levels of the built environment

would discourage public transit usage relative to driving. However, considering access

to mode choice adds an additional level of complexity to studying trip generation. When

the level of the built environment at trip origin decreases, WNR users will be diverted to

drive or PNR; meaning that there is a chance that transit ridership will not decrease.

Therefore, the inclusion of access modes helps to truly understand the impacts of the

built environment on individual mode choice.

2. Explore the different roles trip origin and destination play in mode choice

decision; in terms of significance of built environment factors. As Cynthia Chen (2008)

and Zhang (2004) contended, the built environment at trip origin might play a different

role from that at trip destination for mode choice. For example, in the case of mode

choice between WNR and PNR, it is reasonable to surmise that the quality of the built

environment at trip origin has stronger impacts compared to trip destination. This is why

most studies on transit access trips (Park, Choi, & Lee, 2015; Park, Kang, & Choi, 2014;

Reilly & Landis, 2002) have focused on the path from the household to transit stations.

Furthermore, research (Cervero, 2002; Chen, Gong, & Paaswell, 2008; Lund, Cervero,

& Willson, 2004; Handy S. L., 1996; Zhang, Hong, Nasri, & Shen, 2012) found that

significance or quality of the built environment at trip destination outweighs that at trip

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origin in terms of the magnitude and significance of variables. However, the study by

Cervero (2003) hints a reversed result based on the statistical fits of the model. Using

the travel survey in Portland, this study will examine the difference between the roles

that trip origin and destination play in mode choice.

3. Examine the different impacts of the built environment on trip origin

dependent on transit service level and the different impacts of the built environment on

trip destination given its involvement in trip chaining. In TOD, high quality transit

systems are surrounded by high-levels of built environment. Examples include

continuous sidewalks, attractive landscaping and densely distributed street canopy.

According to research, it is believed that individuals care less about the built

environment when they live close to a transit station. This study tried to answer whether

the proximity to a transit station will reduce the degree of significance of the built

environment on TOD residents’ travel behavior by examining the interaction of service

level and the built environment at trip origin.

Hensher and Reyes (2000) contended that trip chaining is a barrier to public

transit. However, some studies on the built environment stated that high-levels of the

built environment would discourage auto usage by offering convenience for trip

chaining. Therefore, it seems that the research on trip chaining is inconsistent. This

study will test the varying degree of significance of BE attributes at trip destination

depending on whether it is a chain trip.

Overall, three sets of analysis will be performed. The first analysis is conducted

using a simple correlation test to determine the relationship between transit codes (0-1)

and built environment variables at both trip ends in terms of sign and magnitudes of the

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coefficients. The second analysis uses multinomial logit models to test the role that trip

origin and destination play in mode choice decision in terms of significance and

magnitude of the built environment variables. The third analysis uses multinomial logit

models to test the different impacts of the built environment with respect to trip-chaining

behavior. Discovering the different roles that trip origin and destination play in

determining the link between the built environment and mode choice will hopefully

increase the efforts made towards promoting TOD at both ends of the trip as well as

provide advice to transportation land-use policies and urban planning for specific modes

or areas.

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CHAPTER 3 METHODOLOGY

3.1 Study Area and Data Collection

The study is set in Portland, Oregon, which is served by a comprehensive public

transportation system. Because Portland has a strong tradition of promoting transit-

oriented development, with lots of successful TOD projects like Acadia Garden and

Merrick Apartments, clarifying the marginal roles of urban form factors in shaping mode

choice in such settings takes on particular importance. Currently, the transit system has

a high rate of use (20.2% for work trips in 2011). 610 buses operate on a network of 80

routes every day. Twelve of the routes are express bus routes with a 15-minutes-or-less

wait time on weekdays. Portland’s light rail system is comprised of five lines and the

two-line streetcar system serves the downtown and its surrounding area.

Three data sources are used for the study. The first is the 2011 Oregon Travel

and Activity Survey which is compiled by the Oregon Department of Transportation

(ODOT). The second data source is the Oregon Travel and Activity Survey (OTAS)

which is the first in-depth study of household travel behavior in Oregon in more than ten

years. From April 2009 through November 2011, approximately 18,000 households

were surveyed to identify where and how they traveled on a specific, designated travel

day (24 hours). The study collected geographic data of the greater Portland area from

two sources, 2010 US Census TIGER files and the CivicApps website. The CivicApps

website offers all aspects of geographic information of the area, including road network,

street facilities and transit routes.

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Most of the geographic data that the study collected is across the City of

Portland. As a result, 2,974 trips, with both trip origin and destination were used for this

study. The study defines areas within a quarter mile radius of frequent bus or light

rail/streetcar stations as high-level transit service areas. Figure 3-1 shows a map of

Portland with the origin points of 2,974 trips and high-level transit service areas in pink.

The yellow points are those within the buffer of high-level transit service, while the green

points are out of the buffer area.

Figure 3-1. Map of study area and the trip origins by Household Location

The travel mode choice set for each trip represents model availability at the

household level: 1) Auto drive is considered as being available if the individual has a

vehicle in the household and is a licensed driver; 2) Walk-and-ride (WNR) is designated

as being available to trips of which total access and egress walk time is less than thirty

minutes and maximum transfer time is less than two minutes (this criterion is provided

by Portland Metro); 3) Park-and-ride (PNR) is considered as being available if the

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individual has a vehicle in the household and total access and egress walk time of the

trip is less than thirty minutes and maximum transfer time is less than two minutes; 4)

Walk is designated as being available to individuals whose trip distance is less than the

maximum distance walked by an individual in the sample (3.66 miles); 5) Bike is

designated as being available if the individual has a bike in the household.

Of the 2,974 trips, 74.8% of them fell within the walking mode, 95.45% fell within

the driving mode, 80.46% fell within the PNR mode, 85.29% fell within the WNR mode

and 74.98% fell within the biking mode.

3.2 Definition of Independent Variables

This study includes four sets of variables: attributes of alternative, socio-

economic characteristics, trip characteristics, and built environment measures.

3.2.1 Attributes of Alternative

Attributes of alternative represent level-of-service variables of competing modes.

The in-vehicle travel time and out-of-vehicle travel time variables were combined into a

single time variable. The average walking speed of an individual (3.1 miles per hour)

was used to calculate walking time while the average biking speed of an individual (15.5

miles per hour) was used to calculate biking time. Separate time coefficients were

estimated for competing modes to accommodate for the differential time sensitivities

based on travel mode. Travel cost was also included.

3.2.2 Socio-economic Characteristics

The household socio-economic attributes considered in the study include

household size, income, vehicles per person and drivers licenses per person. The

individual socio-demographic characteristics used include sex, age, educational

attainment, ethnicity, student status and employment status.

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3.2.3 Trip Characteristics

Trip characteristics represent variables exclusively related to the attributes of

trips. In this study, two dummy variables are used to represent trip characteristics: trip

purpose (work or non-work trip) and trip chaining behavior (chain trip or single

destination trip).

3.2.4 Built Environment Characteristics

Built environment characteristics measure incorporated in the study are divided

into four categories: diversity, density, design, and accessibility. With the use of census

block-based land-use data and GIS techniques, the study measures the built

environment within a quarter of a mile radius of trip origin and destination. The four built

environment categories are explained below in detail:

3.2.4.1 Diversity

Diversity focuses on the degree of variability for land-use and employment.

Diversity promotes accessibility to a variety of activities. Three diversity variables are

considered in the analysis:

Job mix measures the degree of job mixing at the buffer area. Using 2011

Census data, jobs are classified into five types to measure the variability. The value

ranges from 0 (where one employment sector dominates) to 1 (where all jobs are evenly

distributed between the five sectors). The equation for job mixing can be found in

Equation 3-1.

𝐽𝑜𝑏 𝑀𝑖𝑥 = 1 − {(| [management]

[sum]−

1

5| + |

[service]

[sum]−

1

5| + |

[sales]

[sum]−

1

5| +

| [production]

[sum]−

1

5| + |

[natural]

[sum]−

1

5|) /

8

5} (3-1)

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Mixed-use level indicates extent to which the surrounding environment of the

place develops buildings with a mixed use of land. The greater amount of mixed-use,

the greater opportunity of physical activity taking place around residential areas. A study

conducted by Chatman (2003) indicates that land use diversity at the workplace will

promote non-auto commuting and the potential for trip chaining by walking/biking before

and after work. Several measures have been used by to capture the effect of mixed-

use, such as the dissimilarity index.

This study employs the entropy index to measure the degree of land-use

heterogeneity. Seven land-use types of original zoning data are reclassified into five

simple types: commercial, industrial, mixed-use, multi-family and single-family, parks

and open space. Entropy is computed by using the following equation:

𝐸𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑜𝑝𝑦 = −(∑ 𝑃𝑗 ∗ 𝐼𝑛𝑃𝑗𝑛𝑗=0 )/𝐼𝑛(𝑛) (3-2)

where Pj is the proportion of land-use in the j-th land-use category and j is the number

of different land-use type classes in the area. The entropy measure ranges from 0

(where one land-use type is dominant) to 1 (where land-uses are equally mixed).

The jobs-resident balance Index is an index that measures the balance between

employment and resident population. The value ranges from 0 to 1. A value of 1 means

that the area has the same ratio of jobs to residents, while a value of 0 indicates that

either jobs or residents predominate. The equation for the jobs-resident balance index is

found below as Equation 3-3.

𝐽𝑂𝐵𝑃𝑂𝑃 = 1 − (|employment−a∗population

employment+a∗population|) (3-3)

where a is the regional ratio of employment to residents.

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3.2.4.2 Density

Density theorizes that the average trip distance is reduced in relation to major

transport nodes, amenities and jobs. An increased density increases the probability of

walking, biking and using public transit (Cervero & Kockelman, 1997). This study

focuses on two densities: population density and gross density/activity.

Population density is measured as the number of residents per acre within a

quarter mile radius of the destination.

Gross density/activity measures the overall density of the buffer area in terms of

people either living or working within the destination area (Ewing, Schroeer, & Greene,

2004; Cervero, 2002).Gross density can be measured using the following equation:

𝐺𝑟𝑜𝑠𝑠 𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑦 = (𝐽𝑜𝑏𝑠 + 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛)/𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑎 (3-4)

3.2.4.3 Design

Design reflects the aesthetics of a neighborhood and the physical configurations

of street networks; which emphasize an individual’s walking experience. This set of

variables includes a connectivity index and the percentage of cul-de-sac streets in the

neighborhood. Multiple attributes are used in calculating a design index of which are

mentioned below.

Sidewalk coverage rate is one of the most common elements used to evaluate

walkability level. Streets without sidewalks decrease the probability of walking because

it forces pedestrians to share the road with fast-moving vehicles. A majority of studies

focus on the average width of sidewalks, the presence of sidewalks, and the continuity

of sidewalks (Park S. , 2008; Boarnet, Anderson, Day, McMillan, & Alfonzo, 2003).

Cervero (2002) found that the sidewalk ratio at both trip ends is significant in examining

built environment factors. This study uses sidewalk coverage rate to capture this

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element. Sidewalk coverage rate is measured as the total length of sidewalks with a

quarter mile radius of the site divided by the total length of streets in the same area.

Street lighting is a component of street facilities. More street lighting signifies

greater luminosity at night which increases pedestrian and bicyclist sense of security.

Therefore, street lighting is supposed to have a positive impact on walkability level. This

study measures the street lighting coverage rate using the number of street lightings per

sidewalk foot.

Street trees are a component of street facilities as well. A lot of research has

shown the importance of street trees for pedestrians and bicyclists. From the

perspective of urban design, Jacobs (1992) emphasized its two advantages: shading

from sunlight and protected buffer for pedestrians/bicycles. Therefore, street trees

enhance the sense of comfort and safety, resulting in an increased walkability level.

Similarly, this study measures street tree coverage rate using the number of street trees

per sidewalk foot.

Connectivity is measured by two methods, street connectivity and intersection

connectivity. Street connectivity is measured as the length of all streets divided by the

number of intersections. Intersection connectivity is measured as the number of

intersections divided by total number of intersections and cul-de-sac within a quarter

mile radius of the destination. Higher connectivity provides travelers with various

potential routes.

Street density is quantified by the total street length divided by total area of land

within a quarter mile radius of the destination. It measures the degree of network

spreading.

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Small blocks contribute to relatively direct routes, while grid networks with large

blocks and curvilinear streets increase walking distance by requiring circuitous routes.

Block size is measured as both the average and standard deviation block size within a

quarter mile radius of the destination. Using the mean may seem intuitive, but it does

not capture variance in block size; which is important to walkability.

Bicycle trail density is measured by taking the total bicycle trail length and

dividing it by the total area of land within the buffer area. It measures the degree of the

bicycle network spreading.

3.2.4.4 Accessibility/ Transportation supply

Transit service level represents the quality of transit service of the buffer area.

The transit service level variable measures frequency of bus stops and street-car/light

rail stations within the buffer area.

Route density measures the number of transit routes running through the buffer

area. The more routes, the more destinations the residents can reach by transit.

More recently, it has been observed that commercial land-use (including

restaurants, stores and entertainment facilities) allows for more frequent physical

activities. The accessibility to commercial land-uses and activities variable measures

activity by the percentage of sales jobs within the buffer area.

3.3 Built Environment Factor Analysis

In total, seventeen built environment variables were collected at both trip origin

and destination. Some of the variables are related, which could pose problems during

the model building process. Therefore, factor analysis was used to help extract the

underlying factors that captured common attributes of those different measurements of

built environment. According to the correlation test, ten variables had a correlation score

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greater than 0.3 but less than 0.9. Because those variables had high correlation to

each other, they were combined. Seven variables were left independent of the other

variables because they did not have a strong relationship with any of the other

variables. Principal component method of factor extraction was adopted to reduce the

number of variables. Based on Kaiser’s criterion and the scree plot (Figure 3-2), two

factors with high factor loadings (>1) were extracted. This accounted for 66% of the

variance in the ten related variables. The rotated component matrix (oblique rotation)

was then used to improve the interpretation of the two variables extracted by the Kaiser

criterion scree plot. As shown in Table 3-1, the variables that load highly on factor 1 are

standard deviation for block size (-0.84), average block size (-0.81), street connectivity

(0.74), street density (0.69), bike trail density(0.68), intersection density(0.52), and

sidewalk coverage ratio(0.43), therefore the first component presents the importance of

network connectivity. The variables that load highly on factor 2 are gross activity (0.93),

route density (0.90), sidewalk coverage ratio (0.56), population density (0.55), therefore

the second component presents the importance of intensity. The two extracted factor

scores entered in the study as built environment variables, varying among individuals.

Figure 3-3 shows the workflow behind defining the built environment variables.

After running the factor analysis, nine built environment variables remained. Besides the

transit service level variable, all variables were used for both trip origin and destination.

In conclusion, 16 built environment variables were entered into the model analysis to

examine the roles of trip origin and destination.

3.4 Descriptive Analyses

Error! Reference source not found. summarizes the descriptive statistics for

Independent variables by

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Figure 3-2. Scree Plot

Table 3-2. Factor Analysis Result

Connectivity Factor Intensity Factor

STD. Block Size -0.84 Average Block Size -0.81 Street Connectivity 0.74 Bike Trail Density 0.68 Street Density 0.69 0.37

Intersection density 0.52 0.39

Sidewalk Coverage Rate 0.43 0.56

Pop Density

0.55

Activity density

0.93

Route density

0.9

Summary Statistics

SS loadings 3.56 3.02

Proportion Var 0.36 0.3

Cumulative Var 0.36 0.66

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Figure 3-3. Defining Process of Built Environment Factors

mode. The final sample size used for the analysis was 2,974 individual home-started

trips; out of which 1,718 began within high transit service level areas. The overall mode

shares are as follows: drive (63.3%), PNR (1.5%), WNR (9.8%), walk (16.0%) and

bicycle (9.4%).

Table 3-3 shows the difference in mode share by trip purpose, transit service

level and trip chaining behavior. In terms of transit service level, trips started from areas

with high transit service had a higher percentage of walking (18.3%), biking (11.1%),

and WNR (12.4%). Additionally, trips started from areas with high transit service had

lower percentages of driving (56.3%) and PNR (1%). It could be explained that areas

with high levels of transit service are usually accompanied by high walkability scores;

something that is consistent with New Urbanist ideals. High ridership rates in transit

villages are partly due to self-selection – people purposely live near transit stations

purposely for economizing on public transit. In this study, 784 households provided a

reason for choosing their current housing location. Of the 784 households, 198

households (approximately 25.2%) moved for access to transit. When comparing work

trips to non-work trips, a higher percentage of work trips were made by biking or using

multi-use transit (WNR and PNR); while a lower percentage of work trips were made by

driving or walking. In this study, the average distance for a work trip was 3.34 mile and

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Table 3-2. Descriptive Statistics for Independent Variables by Mode

Bike Drive PNR Walk WNR

Independent Variable

Mean SD Mean SD Mean SD Mean SD Mean SD

Travel Time(minutes)

10.02 7.10 8.09 5.60 37.30 11.30 13.70 9.58 33.5

1 12.2

8 Travel Cost (US dollar)

0.00 0.00 0.72 0.53 1.98 0.35 0.00 0.00 1.85 0.46

Travel Distance(mile)

2.02 1.49 2.51 2.02 5.86 1.93 0.41 0.36 3.53 2.55

Household Size 2.67 1.10 2.64 1.23 2.39 1.02 2.64 1.20 2.22 1.14

Gender(Male=1) 0.61 0.49 0.45 0.50 0.39 0.49 0.44 0.50 0.45 0.50

Education Leve l(ordinal data from 1 to 6)

4.81 1.48 4.63 1.42 4.17 1.50 4.42 1.73 4.27 1.75

Bike per Person 1.24 0.71 - - - - - - - -

Vehicle per Person

0.56 0.35 0.85 0.45 0.91 0.43 0.59 0.38 0.52 0.44

Household Income (ordinal data from 1 to 8)

5.34 1.81 5.44 1.76 5.36 1.54 5.14 1.93 4.50 1.97

Age (ordinal data from 1 to 8)

5.18 1.57 6.08 1.35 5.33 1.45 5.29 1.98 5.41 1.93

Driver's License per Person

0.79 0.26 0.82 0.23 0.84 0.22 0.76 0.27 0.72 0.35

Employment (full job=1)

0.86 0.35 0.71 0.45 0.89 0.32 0.64 0.48 0.69 0.47

Is a chain trip (True=1)

0.39 0.49 0.46 0.50 0.50 0.51 0.23 0.42 0.38 0.49

Is work trip(True=1)

0.49 0.50 0.28 0.45 0.80 0.40 0.14 0.34 0.52 0.50

Mix-use Level at Oa

0.28 0.19 0.28 0.18 0.24 0.17 0.29 0.19 0.30 0.19

Job mix at Oa 0.41 0.16 0.40 0.16 0.37 0.16 0.44 0.14 0.42 0.14

Jobs-resident Balance at Oa

0.47 0.28 0.39 0.27 0.35 0.30 0.47 0.27 0.47 0.28

Sale Job Percent at Oa

0.20 0.20 0.19 0.19 0.16 0.16 0.21 0.18 0.20 0.19

Tree coverage at Oa

0.10 0.04 0.09 0.04 0.07 0.04 0.10 0.04 0.09 0.04

aO presents Origin bD presents Destination

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Table 3-2. Continued

Bike Drive PNR Walk WNR

Independent Variable

Mean SD Mean SD Mean SD Mean SD Mean SD

Lighting coverage at Oa

0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00

Connectivity at Oa

0.19 0.60 -0.14 0.84 -0.69 0.97 0.23 0.63 0.08 0.85

Intensity at Oa -0.38 0.40 -0.51 0.33 -0.64 0.30 -

0.27 0.55 -0.25 0.61

Mix-use Level at Db

0.34 0.18 0.36 0.18 0.25 0.14 0.31 0.18 0.30 0.18

Job Mix at Db 0.48 0.15 0.46 0.15 0.46 0.11 0.47 0.14 0.48 0.13

Jobs-resident Balance at Db

0.44 0.29 0.51 0.30 0.21 0.22 0.56 0.27 0.37 0.30

Sale Job Percent at Db

0.20 0.15 0.21 0.16 0.15 0.07 0.20 0.16 0.18 0.12

Tree coverage at Db

0.02 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.03 0.01 0.02 0.01

Lighting coverage at Db

0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01

Connectivity at Db

0.27 0.79 -0.03 1.06 0.49 0.65 0.20 0.99 0.35 0.76

Intensity at Db 0.69 1.40 0.19 1.04 2.51 1.33 0.26 0.91 1.55 1.68

aO presents Origin bD presents Destination

1.80 mile for non-work trips. Because distance is highly influential on walking, it is

reasonable to assume that less people are likely to commute by foot. Further, those

who travel during peak hours are less likely to drive. Additionally, non-work trips

traveling to multiple locations with multiple people are more like to drive. In terms of trip

chaining behavior, chain trips have a higher percentage of auto usage (70.9%), but

lower percentage of walking (9.1%); which could be explained by the fact that chain

trips have longer distances than singular trips.

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3.5 Correlation between Mode Choice and Independent Variables

Table 3-4 summarizes the correlations between mode choice (coded 0-1) and the

independent variables. Without controlling for any other factors, correlation

Table 3-3. Difference in Mode Shares by Trip Purpose and Location

Mode Overall Percent

high service level

low service level

non-work trip

Work trip

Non-chain trip

Chain trip

bike 9.40% 11.40% 6.70% 6.90% 14.90% 9.60% 9.10%

drive 63.30% 56.30% 72.90% 65.80% 57.80% 58.00% 70.90%

PNR 1.50% 1.00% 2.20% 0.40% 4.00% 1.30% 1.90%

walk 16.00% 18.30% 12.00% 20.00% 7.00% 20.80% 9.10%

WNR 9.80% 12.40% 6.20% 6.90% 16.20% 10.30% 9.10%

presents the relative impact of the variable on whether a trip was made by the

corresponding mode. The sign of the correlation coefficients reflects the direction of the

impact – positive values denote that the variable increases the probability of choosing

that mode while negative values indicate the opposite. Absolute correlation values over

0.1 are regarded as moderate to strong relation.

For non-motorized modes (bike and walk) versus automobile, all built

environment variables at trip origin and destination have positive moderate to strong

values. This means that high levels of urban environment at both trip ends will promote

non-motorized usage.

For WNR versus drive and PNR, all the correlations of the built environment

variables at trip origin are positive. This means that greater built environment variables

at trip origin promote WNR. Notably, intensity and connectivity factors on WNR versus

PNR have a relatively large correlation; indicating that at the residential neighborhood

level, intensity and connectivity might significantly increase the propensity to use WNR

relative to PNR. At trip destination, both connectivity and intensity are positively

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correlated with transit usage (WNR and PNR). Because outbound trips are normally

made by non-motorized vehicles, higher connectivity and intensity are expected and

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Table 3-4. Correlations between Mode Choice (coded 0-1) and Independent Variables

Bike_Drive Walk_Drive WNR_Drive PNR_Drive WNR_PNR

Travel Cost -0.57 -0.68 0.51 0.24 -0.08 Travel Time 0.10 0.27 0.56 0.26 -0.13 Distance -0.05 -0.57 0.18 0.20 -0.39 Household Size 0.00 -0.03 -0.16 -0.02 -0.13 Household Income -0.01 -0.08 -0.17 -0.01 -0.16 Gender(Male=1) 0.11 0.01 -0.01 -0.03 0.07 Education Level 0.08 0.03 -0.02 -0.05 0.08 Driver's License per Person -0.02 -0.05 -0.05 0.01 -0.07

Vehicle per Person -0.22 -0.23 -0.27 0.02 -0.29 Employment (full job=1) 0.10 -0.06 -0.02 0.06 -0.15

Age -0.16 -0.10 -0.08 -0.07 0.07 Is a chain trip (True=1) 0.04 0.18 0.04 -0.03 0.11

Is work trip(True=1) 0.17 -0.12 0.19 0.17 -0.16 Transit service (high level=1) 0.13 0.14 0.15 -0.04 0.27

Mix-use Level at Oa 0.00 0.03 0.04 -0.03 0.10 Job Mix at Oa 0.02 0.09 0.02 -0.02 0.07 Jobs-resident Balance at Oa 0.10 0.14 0.11 -0.02 0.14

Sale Job Percent at Oa 0.02 0.08 0.03 -0.01 0.05

Tree coverage at Oa 0.14 0.12 0.01 -0.07 0.22 Lighting coverage at Oa 0.09 0.14 0.12 0.01 0.10

Connectivity at Oa 0.13 0.19 0.11 -0.09 0.30 Intensity at Oa 0.13 0.22 0.19 -0.07 0.31 Mix-use Level at Db -0.04 -0.10 -0.13 -0.10 0.09 Job mix at Db 0.04 0.01 0.03 0.00 0.03 Jobs-resident Balance at Db -0.09 0.06 -0.17 -0.14 0.17

Sale Job Percent at Db 0.00 -0.02 -0.04 -0.04 0.06

Tree coverage at Db 0.06 0.22 0.03 0.01 0.00 Lighting coverage at Db 0.04 -0.01 0.06 0.02 0.02

Connectivity at Db 0.12 0.12 0.18 0.11 -0.05 Intensity at Db 0.15 0.08 0.29 0.22 -0.21 aO presents Origin bD presents Destination

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conducive to PNR and WNR, compared to driving. However, variables on the diversity

dimension (jobs-resident balance and mixed-use level, sale job percent) are counter-

intuitively associated with transit use (PNR and WNR), which might lead to inconsistent

result with previous studies.

3.6 Probabilistic Choice Theory

This study develops logistic choice models to process and predict probabilistic

mode choice using the deterministic utility function; which is based on the assumption

that the individual is assumed to choose an alternative if the utility is greater than that of

any other alternative. The utility function is composed of two parts. One component is

the deterministic portion of the utility function (Vit) and the other is the difference

between the error and the portion of the unobserved utility used (εit).

3-5 Uit = Vit + εit

In this study, the deterministic portion of the utility function is composed of five

parts: exclusively related to the attributes of alternatives V (St), exclusively related to the

individual’s socioeconomic and demographic attributes V (Xi), exclusively related to the

attributes of trips V (Tt ), exclusively related to the built environment attributes of trip

ends V(BEt) and the interactions between the trip attributes and the BE attributes

V(Tt,BEt). The formula can be found as Equation 4-2 below.

3-6 V t,I = V(St) + V(Xi) + V(Tt) + V(BEt) + V(Tt,BEt)

According to the multinomial logit model (MNL), the choice probability of each

alternative has a mathematical function of the systematic portion of the utility of all the

alternatives. The choice probability of choosing alternative i could be expressed as:

3-7 Pr (𝑖) =exp (𝑉𝑖)

∑ exp (𝑉𝑖)𝐽𝑗=1

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CHAPTER 4 MODEL RESULTS AND INTERPRETATION

Four mode choice models were tested in this study: 1) A basic model with

attributes of alternatives, socio-economic characteristics and trip attributes; 2) A partially

expanded model, which adds built environmental variables at trip origin to the basic

model; 3) A fully expanded model, which adds environmental variables at trip

destination to the partially expanded model; 4) A model with interactions between the

built environment variables at trip destination and trip chaining variables.

The coefficients estimated in the MNL model represent the influence of

exogenous variables on the latent utilities of the alternatives. The drive alternative is

used as the base for this study and aims to find the impact of the built environment on

prompting non-auto usage. Table 4-1 shows the model results with all the statistically

significant variables. The sign of the coefficients reflects the direction in which each

variable impacts the corresponding mode over automobile use – positive values denote

that a variable increases the probability of choosing that mode versus car while

negatives indicate the opposite.

4.1 Basic Model

The basic model reveals that longer travel time will significantly decrease a

travelers’ utility of driving, biking, walking, PNR and WNR at the 0.001 significance level.

Several socio-economic variables in the basic model were significant predictors.

It is reasonable to believe that vehicle ownership will encourage auto and PNR use

relative to walking, biking and WNR. Household size had a significantly negative impact

on non-auto usage (walk, WNR and bike), which is expected and consistent with

previous study (Rubin, Mulder, & Bertolini, 2014). Larger household sizes are more

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likely to make multi-member trips; increasing the probability of trip chaining and requires

high flexibility in scheduling. Therefore, car travel by larger households requires higher

flexibility and lower marginal costs (Rubin, Mulder, & Bertolini, 2014). Higher educated

individuals are more likely to travel using non-motorized modes; which is consistent with

Loutzenheiser’s study (1997). Additionally, age is positively associated with auto usage

and males are more likely to bike over drive at the 0.001 significance level. For work

trips, individuals are more likely to commute by bike and transit (PNR and WNR) versus

driving. These results are consistent with the results from the mode share analysis in

the previous chapter. It is also expected that work trips will promote walking, after

controlling for the effects of travel time.

As mentioned in the second chapter, previous studies found that the complexity

of a trip will discourage transit use because it is more convenient and flexible to do

multiple errands by driving. Consistent with their findings, the model found that trip

chaining (as a dummy variable), has a negative impact on biking, walking and WNR

compared to drive. Consistent with previous studies (Chatman, 2003; Chatman, 2003;

Lund, Cervero, & Willson, 2004), this study indicates that people who chain are more

likely to drive, as car travel is associated with higher flexibility in scheduling.

The presence of frequent or high-capacity service within a quarter mile radius of

residential locations will promote WNR relative to driving. Combined with the absence of

the service variable for the PNR mode, it is confirmed that the proximity of transit

stations will promote walk-access trips compared to auto access trips. This result is

consistent with previous studies (Park, Choi, & Lee, 2015; Cervero, 2001). Furthermore,

living close to a transit station will also lower the odds of driving relative to biking and

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walking. One possible explanation is that high quality transit systems are often

accompanied with increased built environment factors and network connectivity; such

as TODs.

In conclusion, all the significant variables in the basic model are consistent with

previous studies.

4.2 Partially Expanded Model with BE at Trip Origin

The inclusion of the BE variables at trip origin increased the overall predictability.

The statistical test found that BE variables had no effect on mode choice and that three

out of the four BE variables had a significant chi-square value of 50.1 with 12 degrees of

freedom. The critical χ2 with 12 degrees of freedom at 0.001 level of significance is

32.9. Thus, the null hypothesis can be rejected at very high levels. In this model, all

variables, except the transit service variable, retained their signs and significance when

being compared to the basic model.

At trip origin, the coefficient of connectivity on walking is significant and positive,

which means that higher connectivity will increase the probability of walking. A

combination of the significant impacts on the PNR mode with a negative sign and the

insignificance on WNR suggests that improving the connectivity in residential

neighborhood is effective in reducing auto access. Similarly, the outcomes of intensity

on WNR and PNR indicate that compactness within residential neighborhoods might

increase access to walking versus auto usage (PNR and drive). These results confirm

the concept of TOD in residential neighborhood, as it clearly supports that compact

development in residential areas significantly increases walking and WNR.

All the coefficients for the transit service variable lost their significance in this

model. One possible explanation is that the transit service level is related with BE

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variables; which have a stronger weight than transit service level. Notably, the inclusion

of additional variables that represent the interaction of transit service level with BE

variables at trip origin failed to improve the model significantly. None of the interaction

variables showed as significant. This result indicates that the impact of BE variables at

trip origin are the same irrespective of whether frequent transit station are within a

quarter mile radius of a household or not.

4.3 Fully Expanded Model with BE at Trip Destination

After adding the BE variables at trip destination, the fully expanded model

improved the goodness of fit (the higher adjusted rho-squared). This model resulted in a

high chi-squared value of 192.8 and therefore, the hypothesis that BE variables at trip

destination had no effect on mode choice could be rejected at 0.001 level of

significance.

Compared to the partially expanded model, all variables except the education

level on WNR, travel time and PNR retained their significance and signs.

At trip destination, the impacts of connectivity and mixed-use on walking are

surprisingly negative and inconsistent with past findings (Cervero, 2002; Rajamani,

Bhat, Handy, Knaap, & Song, 2003; Cervero & Duncan, 2003). We will revisit the issue

when results from next model are discussed. The result was discussed in the last

section of the chapter. Notably, all four coefficients of intensity were found to be

significant at the 0.001 significance level, which suggests that high density at trip

destination has a positive impact on discouraging the decision to use a car.

4.4 Model with Trip Chaining as Interaction Term

To test if there is a difference in the impact of BE variables at trip destination on

mode choice with respect to trip chaining, additional variables were added to the fully

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expanded model. The test resulted in a chi-squared value of 30.5 with 12 degrees of

freedom. Therefore, it confirms that the null hypothesis could be rejected at the 0.005

significance level.

Compared to the previous model, all the variables retained their significance and

signs, except for work trip on walking, trip chaining on WNR and intensity on walking.

According to probabilistic choice theory, the utility function of mixed-use level on

walking is shown as:

Utility Function (walk)=…+β1× MixUse + β2× (MixUse × Is ChainTrip)+… (4-1)

The coefficient for mixed-use level on walking is -2.21 and the interaction

between trip chaining and mixed-use level variables on walking is 2.62. Based on

Equation 4-1 the utility function of mixed-use level for non-chain trips is shown as:

Utility(walk)=…+(-2.21) × MixUse + 2.62 × (MixUse ×0) = …+(-2.21) × MixUse+… (4-2)

While for chain trips, the utility function of mixed-use level on walking is shown as:

Utility(walk)=…+(-2.21) × MixUse + 2.62 × (MixUse ×1) = …+0.41 × MixUse+… (4-3)

Therefore, the negative sign in Equation 4-2 shows that for non-chaining trips,

high instances of mixed-use development at trip destination will discourage walking.

The positive sign in Equation 4-3 indicates that for chain trips, high instances of mixed-

use development at trip destination will increase the probability of walking compared to

driving. Similarly, high-levels of connectivity at trip destination will discourage walking

for non-chain trips, but will increase the probability of walking versus driving for chain

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Table 4-1. Model Results

Basic Model Partially

Expanded model

Fully Expanded

model

Model with Interaction

Term

Variables Coef. t Coef. t Coef. t Coef. t

Bike: Constant -1.33 -2.3* -1.01 -1.66 -1.13 -1.75 -0.88 -1.34

PNR: Constant -3.69 -3.37*** -3.51 -2.86** -4.2 -2.93** -4.12 -2.64**

Walk: Constant 2.25 4.14*** 2.57 4.51*** 2.92 4.81*** 3.23 5.22***

WNR: Constant 1.84 3.16** 2.26 3.68*** 1.38 2.03* 1.38 1.97*

drive: Travel Time

-0.22 -9.26*** -0.21 -8.85*** -0.1 -3.81*** -0.1 -3.84***

Bike: Travel Time

-0.18 -9.84*** -0.17 -9.39*** -0.11 -5.53*** -0.11 -5.64***

PNR: Travel Time

-0.05 -3.66*** -0.05 -3.91***

Walk: Travel Time

-0.14 -18.81*** -0.14 -18.43*** -0.13 -16.54*** -0.13 -16.53***

WNR: Travel Time

-0.08 -8.26*** -0.08 -7.71*** -0.04 -3.36*** -0.04 -3.34***

Bike: Bike per Person

0.65 5.88*** 0.65 5.83*** 0.62 5.57*** 0.62 5.58***

Bike: Household Size

-0.38 -4.71*** -0.35 -4.24*** -0.34 -4.02*** -0.34 -3.98***

Walk: Household Size

-0.26 -3.51*** -0.24 -3.04** -0.25 -3.17** -0.25 -3.15**

WNR: Household Size

-0.65 -7.47*** -0.61 -6.87*** -0.62 -6.62*** -0.62 -6.63***

Bike: Gender (Male=1)

0.79 5.12*** 0.78 5.05*** 0.72 4.67*** 0.74 4.75***

Bike: Education Level

0.37 5.68*** 0.36 5.53*** 0.36 5.49*** 0.37 5.61***

walk: Education Level

0.23 4.4*** 0.21 3.86*** 0.22 4.04*** 0.24 4.24***

WNR: Education Level

0.16 2.83** 0.15 2.64**

Bike: Vehicle per Person

-1.86 -7.3*** -1.78 -6.98*** -1.74 -6.79*** -1.73 -6.72***

Walk: Vehicle per Person

-1.03 -4.84*** -1.04 -4.82*** -1.1 -5*** -1.11 -5***

WNR: Vehicle per Person

-2.3 -8.7*** -2.14 -8.05*** -2.24 -8.05*** -2.24 -8.03***

*the coefficient is significant at the 0.05 level. ** the coefficient is significant at the 0.01 level. ***the coefficient is significant at the 0.001 level.

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Table 4-1. Continued

Basic Model Partially

Expanded model

Fully Expanded

model

Model with Interaction

Term

Variables Coef. t Coef. t Coef. t Coef. t

Bike: Age -0.24 -3.98*** -0.25 -4.04*** -0.24 -3.86*** -0.25 -4.02***

PNR: Age -0.25 -2.2* -0.3 -2.51* -0.37 -2.79** -0.38 -2.83**

Walk: Age -0.16 -2.92** -0.15 -2.8** -0.14 -2.48* -0.16 -2.77**

WNR: Age -0.2 -3.59*** -0.22 -3.94*** -0.21 -3.51*** -0.21 -3.56***

Bike: Work trip (True=1)

1.28 7.62*** 1.28 7.59*** 1.21 7.06*** 1.22 7.09***

PNR: Work trip (True=1)

2.23 4.89*** 2.29 4.85*** 2.02 4.13*** 1.96 3.98***

Walk: Work trip (True=1)

0.4 2.11* 0.44 2.26* 0.39 1.96*

WNR: Work trip (True=1)

0.94 5.63*** 0.97 5.79*** 0.76 4.31*** 0.76 4.3***

Bike: Transit service (high level=1)

0.45 2.77**

Walk: Transit service (high level = 1)

0.51 3.42***

WNR: Transit service (high level = 1)

0.43 2.57*

Bike: Chain trip (True=1)

-0.34 -2.2* -0.34 -2.21* -0.41 -2.63** -1.3 -3.09**

Walk: Chain trip (True=1)

-1.08 -7.02*** -1.09 -6.98*** -1.14 -7.15*** -2.26 -5.87***

WNR: Chain trip (True=1)

-0.6 -3.76*** -0.59 -3.64*** -0.7 -4.13***

Built Environment Factors at Trip Origin

PNR: Connectivity at Oa

-0.46 -2.64** -0.52 -2.79** -0.56 -2.89**

Walk: Connectivity at Oa

0.44 3.3*** 0.65 4.18*** 0.67 4.29***

WNR: Intensity at Oa

0.87 4.64*** 0.94 4.89*** 0.93 4.83***

*the coefficient is significant at the 0.05 level. ** the coefficient is significant at the 0.01 level. ***the coefficient is significant at the 0.001 level. aO presents Origin

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Table 4-1. Continued

Basic Model Partially

Expanded model

Fully Expanded

model

Model with Interaction

Term

Variables Coef. t Coef. t Coef. t Coef. t

Built Environment Factors at Trip Destination

Walk: Mix-use Level at Db

-1.51 -3.39*** -2.21 -4.31***

Walk: Connectivity at Db

-0.35 -3.41*** -0.45 -4.3***

Bike: Intensity at Db 0.29 3.87*** 0.19 2.01*

PNR: Intensity at Db 0.8 5.99*** 0.87 4.49***

Walk: Intensity at Db

0.32 3**

WNR: Intensity at Db

0.67 9.76*** 0.6 7.15***

Interaction Terms

Walk: Mix-use Level at Db* ChainTrip

2.62 2.68**

Walk: Connectivity at Db* ChainTrip

0.54 2.18*

Walk: Intensity at Db * ChainTrip

0.41 2.24*

Summary statistics

Log-Likelihood -1921.5 -1896.5 -1800 -1784.8

McFadden R2 0.4033 0.4111 0.441 0.4458

Adjusted R2 0.391 0.395 0.421 0.422

Likelihood Test Ratio 2597.4 2647.5 2840.3 2870.8

*the coefficient is significant at the 0.05 level. ** the coefficient is significant at the 0.01 level. ***the coefficient is significant at the 0.001 level. aO presents Origin bD presents Destination trips. The negative sign present between intensity at trip destination and trip-chaining on

walking means that high density will promote walking for chain trips.

In conclusion, the interaction terms with intuitive sign on the walk mode reveal

that the impact of BE variables at trip destination are different in respect to trip chaining

behavior.

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CHAPTER 5 DISCUSSION

This section will discuss the major findings of this study. First, this research

reveals that the built environment in Portland generally displayed different degrees of

significance for individual mode choice at both trip origin and destination. The partially

expanded model found that improving connectivity and intensity at trip origin would

promote transit access trips. The built environment variables at trip origin might be

particularly important determinants for transit access mode choice, which is consistent

with previous literature (Cervero, 2002; Steiner, 1994; Cervero, 2001; Loutzenheiser,

1997). Compared to the built environment factors, intensity at trip destination was found

to have the strongest influence in decreasing car-dependency, with positive coefficients

on all the non-auto modes at the high significance level (PNR, WNR, walking and

biking). Notably, the chi-squared value resulted by adding BE factors at trip destination

(192.8) is much higher than that by adding BE factors at trip origin trip (50.1). In terms of

this stronger statistical fit, the study found that the quality of the built environment at trip

destination outweighed that at the residential neighborhood level; which is consistent

with a variety of studies With respect to the policy suggestion on the relationship

between land-use and transportation, the study provides supporting evidence for the

notion that urban planners should pay attention to the characteristics of non-residential

areas, such as downtowns, job centers, and other parts of the urban area.

Second, the interaction terms with predictive promise on the walk mode revealed

that the impact of BE variables at trip destination are different on the decision to walk

with respect to trip chaining behavior. The models with interaction terms found for chain

trips, high-levels of land-use diversity, connectivity and density at trip destination all

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increased the probability to walk versus drive. This revealed that there are some

underlying relationships between trip chaining and mode choice. As walking distance is

the most significant factor in the choice to walk (Loutzenheiser, 1997; Handy S. L.,

1996), it is likely that trip chaining will discourage walking due to increased trip length.

However, when people chain ends, people prefer walking for they do not need to park.

Therefore, it can be concluded that: 1) High diversity promotes trip chaining at the trip

destination, thereby increasing the probability of walking; 2) A pedestrian-friendly

environment with high-levels of compactness and connectivity will increase the

propensity to chain by foot in a diverse setting. Based on these findings, we might

surmise that density and connectivity work together to promote walking. These findings

support Cervero’s study (1997) that it is more effective to encourage walking when

density and connectivity co-exist.

In contrast, the impact of mixed-use levels and connectivity at trip destination on

walking is negative for non-chained trips. Two possible explanations for this finding

come to mind. First, as shown in Figure 5-1, the mean distance of non-chain trips by

foot is the smallest. If people are not going to chain at trip destination, it is likely that

travel distance will be highly valued by travelers; outweighing the built environment.

Second, as trip origin inches closer to trip destination, the built environment at both trip

ends becomes very similar. In fact, the mean walking distance for non-chain trip is 0.37

mile, very close to the buffer distance used to measure the built environment factors.

Therefore, it is likely that for those shorter distance trips, travelers’ decision to walk will

depend less on the built environment at trip destination.

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Figure 5-1. Mean Walking Distance by Trip Chaining and Mode

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CHAPTER 6 CONCLUSION AND FUTURE RESEARCH

6.1 Conclusion

This study investigated the impact of built environment factors at trip origin and

destination in shaping mode choice using the 2011 Oregon Household Travel Survey in

Portland, Oregon, which is important because it supplements current research which

has focused primarily on residential neighborhood. In addition, the study measured the

marginal contributions of not only built environment factors, but their interaction with

transit service level and trip chaining behavior using the utility-based model.

The modeling results analyzed answered the question of whether the built

environment variables displayed different degrees of significance for individual mode

choice in terms of whether they were measured at trip origin or destination. The

outcomes confirmed the existence of such differences after controlling for attributes of

alternatives and socio-economic characteristics in Portland, Oregon. The major findings

are as follows:

1. Built environment variables at trip origin are particularly important determinants

for transit access mode choice, as high levels of connectivity and density at trip origin

significantly promote WNR over PNR.

2. Compared to other built environment variables, intensity at trip destination exerts

the strongest influence in decreasing car-dependency; with significant and positive

coefficients for all non-auto modes.

3. Because of the stronger goodness of fit, this study found that the quality of the

built environment at trip destination outweighed that at the residential neighborhood

level. This suggests that urban planners should pay attention to the characteristics of

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nonresidential areas. Further, it is assumed that improved compactness in primarily

nonresidential areas will be most successful in reducing car sprawl.

Additional insight on the analysis is as follows: first, the study found that

collective factors extracted from the factor analysis have stronger impacts than

individual factors. Factor analysis is a helpful tool that removes common attributes

hidden within the built environment variables and reduces the negative impacts of high

multicollinearity. The results show that the two collective factors, connectivity and

intensity, explain travel demand more so than any other individual factors used in the

models. Additionally, mixed-use development level was the only significant individual

variable in the models and was proven to be the most effective measurement of

diversity on the dimension of diversity.

Second, the results indicated that the impact of the built environment at trip origin

is the same irrespective of whether transit station are within a quarter mile radius of a

household or not. It is a good indication that the impact of the built environment on TOD

residents’ decision to use WNR might not be reduced compared to non-TOD residents,

even though the distance to the station is shorter.

Last but not least, the empirical analysis suggests that mixed-use development,

connectivity and intensity at trip destination have the potential to promote walking for

chain trips. As people take advantage of the destination’ diversity, high mixed-use

development will encourage people to chain trip ends; thereby promoting walking.

Additionally, high density and connectivity will further increase the propensity to walk by

decreasing travel distance.

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6.2 Future Research

The current study could be improved in many ways. First, attitudinal and lifestyle

preference variables could be included. For example, the inclusion of residential

location choice decisions would help discover the “true” causal impact of the built

environment on mode choice. Unfortunately, this information is not available for

Portland. Second, compared to a cross-sectional study, longitudinal data would

enhance the causal relationships of land-use and transportation. Therefore, the findings

of this study, using cross-sectional data, are interpreted as associative. Third, because

the study lacks parking information, it is impossible to enrich the model predictors with

parking availability and parking price at trip destination. As many previous studies have

proven, the existence of significant impacts of parking on an individual’s mode choice

could easily improve upon the explanatory power of the models. Lastly, the significant

relationship between trip chaining and individual mode choice suggests that more

attention should be paid on trip chaining behavior in mode choice analysis. The study

explained that the built environment at trip destination promotes walking because

people will chain in diverse settings. The explanation could be further enhanced if data

was provided on whether people chained around the destination or not. Therefore, tour-

based analysis is suggested to understand the connection between land-use and travel

behavior more deeply.

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BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH

Jia Fang is from China and attended the University of Sun Yet-Sen from 2006 to

2010, graduating with a bachelor’s degree in geo-information science and technology.

In 2013, she received her master’s degree in geographical information systems (GIS) at

Zhejiang University. From 2015 to 2017, she was pursuing her second master’s degree

in urban and regional planning at the University of Florida with an interest in

transportation planning. She has worked as a transit planning intern for the City of

Gainesville’s Regional Transit System since January 2017. Jia is preparing herself for

improving the environment people travel in.