the ieem platform and nca-based ieem modeling banerjee.pdfonil banerjee, inter-american development...

THE IEEM PLATFORM AND NCA-BASED MODELING

OnilBanerjee,Inter-AmericanDevelopmentBankMar8nCicowiez,UniversidadNacionaldeLaPlataMarkHorridge,VictoriaUniversityRenatoVargas,CHWResearchSebas8anDudek,IDBConsultant

Kigali,Rwanda,June5to7,2017.WorldBankWAVES7thAnnualPartnerMeeBng.

IEEM Integrated Economic-Environmental Modeling


•  Wehaveaccounts,nowwhat?

•  Fromaccountstomodels(integra8ngNCAintoSNA?).

TheIntegratedEconomic-EnvironmentalModelingPlaNormandEvidence-BasedPolicyModeling.

•  Exploratoryscenarios-inves8nginirriga8on.

•  Targetseeking-NDCs.

•  Policyscreening-SDGs.

•  Retrospec8veevalua8on-inves8ngintourism.

•  GeJngspa8al-IEEM+ESMandGreenGrowth.

OUTLINE


•  NCAasinforma8onsystem.

•  Indicatorsformonitoring/issues:

• Waterproduc8vity,energyintensity,pollu8onperunitoutput,investmentinenvironment,wealth.

•  Guatemala:

•  In60years,Guatemalalost50%forestcover;95%illegal.

• Only54%ofHHfuelwoodcouldbesuppliedlegally.

• RealPolicyImpact:strategiesforcontrolofillegallogging;fuelwood;forestincen8ves.

USES OF NCA: INDICATORS


USES OF NCA: EVIDENCE-BASED POLICY

•  Models:representtheessen8alfeaturesoftheobjectofinterestinanidealizedorsimplifiedway.

Source:BasedonIPBES,2016


NATURAL CAPITAL BASED MODELING

•  Spacepen?Modelsfitforpurpose,fromsimpletocomplex.Dependsontheques8on/resources($+t)/capacity.

•  Scenarioanalysis:

•  Extendedinput-outputmodel;enviroflowstodemand.

•  IEEM:IntegratedEconomic-EnvironmentalModellingPlaNorm.


•  MineralandEnergyResources•  Land•  SoilResources•  TimberResources

•  Aqua8cResources•  WaterResources

Firms

Households

Produc'on

Consump'on

PRODUCTS EMPLOYMENT

Provisioningecosystemservices(rawmaterialsforproduc8on)

Non-provisioningecosystemservices

EffluentsandEmissions

Environmentalinvestments

INTEGRATED ECONOMIC-ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING

EXPLORATORY SCENARIOS WITH IEEM

past present futureWell-b

eing

EXPLORATORY SCENARIOS


eing

TARGET-SEEKING SCENARIOS

past present future

Well-b

eing

RETROSPECTIVE POLICY EVALUATION

past present future

Well-b

eing

Gap

POLICY-SCREENING SCENARIOS


eing PolicyA

PolicyB

AGENDA SETTING DESIGN

IMPLEMENTATION REVIEW

IEEMNCA

AGENDA SETTING: EXPLORING VIABILITY WITH IEEM

Target

ObservedTrajectory

ExpectedPathways

Interven8onScenarios


•  Policyques8onfromAUSGovernment:whatwouldbetheeconomicimpactofUS$3billioninvestmentinirriga8oninFlindersGilbert,NWQueensland?

AGENDA SETTING: EXPLORING VIABILITY WITH IEEM


•  Region:4%morejobs,6%higherincome.

•  Na8on:worseoff.Netpresentvalue:-US$51million.

•  Alterna8veFUTURES:

•  Fasterexportgrowth,NPV:US$86million.

•  Climatechangeimpact,MurrayDarling,NPV:US$36million.

•  Alterna8veFACTS

RESULTS

TARGET-SEEKING SCENARIOS WITH IEEM

past present future

Well-b

eing



eing


past present future

Well-b

eing


past present future

Well-b

eing

Gap



eing PolicyA

PolicyB



IEEMNCA

POLICY DESIGN: TARGET-SEEKING SCENARIOS WITH IEEM

Target

ObservedTrajectory

ExpectedPathways



•  Guatemala:responsiblefor<0.1%ofglobalemissions.

•  BAU=53.85milliontonsCO2equivalentin2030.

•  Reduceemissions11.2%,by6.04Mtons;or22.6%,by12.19Mtons-withfinancialsupport.

•  Targetsectors:forestry,agricultureandtransportsectors.

TARGET-SEEKING: GUATAMALA’S NATIONALLY DETERMINED COMMITMENTS


•  TRNS-EFF:15%increaseefficiencyinfossilfuelcombus8onintransport(freightshipping)sector.

•  TRNS-ELE:Subs8tute15%offossil-fuelbasedenergywithelectricityintransportsector(samenumberofterajoulesgenerated).

TRANSPORT SECTOR SCENARIOS


RESULTS: TRANSPORT SECTOR EMISSIONS CHANGE BY 2030


RESULTS: ECONOMY-WIDE EMISSIONS CHANGE BY 2030


EFFICIENCY + ZERO DEFORESTATION:

efficiency+health,withcomplementarystrategyofzerodeforesta8on.

EFFICIENCY + HEALTH:

25%moreefficientfuelwoodcookstoves;healthbenefitsagriculturallaborproduc8vity.

•  Fuelwoodsupplies57%ofGuatemala’sna8onalenergyconsump8on.

•  Issues:deforesta8on;10millionm3deficit;5,000prematuredeathsperyear,and;1%GDPloss.

TARGET-SEEKING: GUATEMALA FOREST SECTOR AND FUELWOOD SCENARIOS


RESULTS: ECONOMY-WIDE EMISSIONS CHANGE BY 2030


RESULTS: BEYOND GDP; GENUINE SAVINGS

Transmissionmechanism:

•  Increaseinforeststock.

•  Loweremissions.

•  Lessexpenditureonfuelwood=moreincomeforconsump8onandsavings.

POLICY-SCREENING SCENARIOS WITH IEEM


eing PolicyA

PolicyB



eing


past present future

Well-b

eing


past present future

Well-b

eing

Gap



eing PolicyA

PolicyB



IEEMNCA

POLICY DESIGN: POLICY SCREENING WITH IEEM

Target

ObservedTrajectory

ExpectedPathways



IrrigatedAgriculture

SDG2,ZeroHunger,Target2.3:doubleagriculturalproduc8vityandruralincomes.

Strategy:increaseirrigatedagriculture.

Increase of irrigated area: 106,300 ha.

Investment: US$7.95 million

Time horizon: 5 years

SDG 2, Target 2.3

SDG

POLICY SCREENING: SDG 2 AND IRRIGATED AGRICULTURE


WaterandSanita8on

SDG6,WaterandSanita8on,Target6.1and6.2:waterandsanita8onforall.

Strategy:increasecoverageofwaterandsanita8on.

Increase water and sanitation coverage by

6.2% and 10% to 81.5% and 66%, respectively

Investment: US$1.67 billion

Time horizon: 13 years

SDG 6, Target 6.1 and 6.2

SDG

6,2%

10%

0%

20%

10%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

75.3% 81.5%

56.0%

66.0%

POLICY SCREENING: SDG 6 AND WATER AND SANITATION


RESULTS: ECONOMIC AND POVERTY IMPACTS

•  41%and83%gapremaintodoubleagriculturaloutputandincome,respec8vely.

•  Povertyimpacts:2.42millionpeopleareliredfrompoverty;100,000peopleasributedtoinvestments.

•  Nega8veNPVforwaterandsanita8on,thoughisbasichumanright(UN64/292de2010)

•  Irriga8oninvestmentcompensateswithcombinedNPVofUSS$1.4milmillion.

100

50

0

25

75

Agriculturalproduc8on

41%GAP

83%GAP

Income

Percen

t


Totalgreenhousegasemissionsincreasedby642,346tonsofCO2.

Waterconsump8onpercapitaacrossallusesincreasedby1,860ML/capita.

36,528hadeforestedby2030;addi8onal9,820hadeforestedwithinvestment.GenuinesavingsincreasesbyUS$595million.

RESULTS: ENVIRONMENT


INTEGRATED ANALYSIS REVEALS

Certainlinesofac8on(2.3-ZeroHunger)cancontributetovariousSDGs:SDG1-Elimina8ngPoverty,and;SDG8-Promo8ngSustainableEconomicDevelopmentandEmployment(increaseGDPbyUS$1.37billion).

Synergies: Perverse impacts: Trade-offs:advancestowardSDG2implyaddi8onaldeforesta8onwhichmovesawayfromachievingSDG15-Promo8ngSustainableUseofForests.Increasedemissionsslowsprogresstoward,SDG13-Ac8ononClimateChange.

RETROSPECTIVE POLICY EVALUATION WITH IEEM

past present future

Well-b

eing

Gap



eing


past present future

Well-b

eing


past present future

Well-b

eing

Gap



eing PolicyA

PolicyB



IEEMNCA

POLICY REVIEW: RETROSPECTIVE POLICY EVALUATION WITH IEEM

Target

ObservedTrajectory

ExpectedPathways



•  InvestmentofUS$13millioninmunicipalityinNicaraguabetween2012and2016.

•  Tourismevalua8onscomplexduetolackofcounterfactual.

•  Retrospec8veeconomicevalua8onwithIEEMrequiresconstruc8onofbaselineandpost-investmentIEEM.

RETROSPECTIVE TOURISM POLICY EVALUATION WITH IEEM

Percentofpeopleabovepovertyline

Time,T

T0 T5

Observedpercentabovepovertyline

....

Produc8onTechnology

PublicTransport

Baseline

TOURISMIMPACT


RESULTS: POVERTY IMPACTS

•  80%abovepovertylineinbusinessasusual.

•  Simulatedotherpolicy/investmentimpacts84%abovepovertyline.

•  Differencebetweenes8matedandobservedistourisminvestmentimpact.

90

88

86

84

82

80

78

76

74

72

70

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Baseline OtherInvestments Observed

Percen

tofp

eopleabovepo

vertyline

TOURISMINVESTMENTSIMPACT


POLICY SCREENING: IEEM + ECOSYSTEM SERVICES MODELLING (ESM)

POLICY-SCREENING SCENARIOS WITH IEEM


eing PolicyA

PolicyB



eing


past present future

Well-b

eing


past present future

Well-b

eing

Gap



eing PolicyA

PolicyB



IEEMNCA

POLICY DESIGN: POLICY SCREENING WITH IEEM + ESM

Target

ObservedTrajectory

ExpectedPathways



•  Regula8ngecosystemservices,e.g.climateregula8on(carbon)anderosionreten8on/sedimenta8on

•  Culturalandaesthe8cecosystemservices

Firms

Households

Produc'on

Consump'on

PRODUCTS EMPLOYMENT

IEEM + ESM

Non-provisioningecosystemservices

Scenarioimpactsonecosystemservice

supply

Ecosystemservicesupplyfeedbackstoeconomy/IEEM


IEEM APPLIED TO RWANDA’S GREEN GROWTH STRATEGY

•  Achievemiddleincomecountrystatus.

•  Transformeconomyfromsubsistence-basedtoknowledge-based.

•  ImportantaspectsofStrategyaretoincreaseagriculturalproduc8vityandforestcover.


SCENARIOS

Increaseforestcoverto30%,plan8ng103,504ha.

Cost:US$285.6millionover12years.

FOR1

Fuelwoodprovides86%ofenergy.Moreefficientcookstoves/charcoalkilnsimproveefficiencyby

25%.


FUEL

Increaseirrigatedareaby85,473hafor25%

increaseinproduc8vity.


IRRIG


FOR1 RESULTS: GDP, DIFFERENCE FROM BAU

•  FORexpansionisincompe88onwithagriculture.

•  FUELallowsrealloca8onoffactorstoothersectors(knowledge/serviceseconomy)


FOR2 LAND USE CHANGE BY 2035, NO COMPETITION BETWEEN USE

Increaseof123,292ha.agriculture;12,139ha.livestock;102,633ha.forestry.


DECISION CRITERIA AND LAND USE CHANGE


FOR2: LAND USE IN 2035


BaselinecarbonstorageTonsofcarbon/pixel

FOR2scenariocarbonstoragein2035Tonsofcarbon/pixel

FUTURE ECOSYSTEM SERVICE SUPPLY

Source:Bagstadetal.Inprepara'on. Source:BasedonBagstadetal.Inprepara'on.

FOR MORE INFORMATION ON NCA-BASED MODELING AND IEEM, CONTACT:

Onil Banerjee [email protected] Tel: 1-202-942-8128


the ieem platform and nca-based ieem modeling banerjee.pdfonil banerjee, inter-american development...

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