the graphical hurricane local statement (ghls)flghc.org/ppt/2014/training sessions/ts36 emerg comms...

Planning for the Threat

Preparing for the Impacts

The Role of the Local Forecast

2014 Florida Governor Hurricane Conference

Pablo SantosNOAA/NWS –WFO Miami, FL

2014 - FLGHC

Decision Support Services

2014 - FLGHC

Increased efforts toward a greater emphasis on DSS.

◦ Part of NOAA’s Weather-Ready Nation (WRN) initiative.

Practical Application: For places subject to tropical cyclones, we’re interested in developing “Hurricane-Ready” communities.

◦ “A nation that is ready; a society that responds.” Concepts that already emanate from Storm-Ready & Tsunami-Ready

Not a Certification Program !!!

◦ Strengthened partnerships: Hurricane Message Creation

More closely with emergency management

Hurricane Message Delivery

More closely with the media

Planning for the Threat

Preparing for the Impacts In order to help you plan for the threat:

◦ We must make a threat assessment. Latest official forecast

◦ Factor uncertainty and level of confidence

◦ What is the threat?

Reasonable chance tropical storm/hurricane force/major hurricane force winds will be experienced.

Reasonable chance that coastal inundation will be experienced.

To individual partners/customers/public, chance particular thresholds will be exceeded.

The same applies to other tropical storm/hurricane hazards: rain flooding and tornadoes.

In order to prepare for the impacts:◦ One must first recognize them once the threat assessment is made

And finally a message must be crafted and communicated◦ To help our partners filter the information clutter and make good decisions

We refer to this as the decision support cycle, and it is what we do at NWS offices

2014 - FLGHC

Start / Repeat

Recognize

Impacts

Communicate

Message

Assess

Threats

Specific

Customer(s)

General Customer(s)

Decision Support CycleTropical Cyclone Operations

Universal Thresholds

Unique Thresholds

MET = Forecast OperationsTeam

ERS = Emergency ResponseSpecialist(s)

The Role of the Local Forecast

Plug In Here

◦ Training Session 23 (On Tuesday) Local Wind Forecast and its Uncertainty; Local Applications of Wind Speed Probabilities

Local Wind Impact Recognition/Messaging; Local Surge Forecast Forecast

Local Surge Impact Recognition/Messaging

Local rain flooding and tornado forecasts

Rain flooding/tornado impact recognition/messaging

WFO Tropical Storm/Hurricane Decision Support Services

Weather Ready Nation

◦ Training Session 24 - Conveying Uncertainty to the Public : NWS/Media - Wed Afternoon

◦ Training Session 25- NWS Graphics for Media, PIO, and EM Planners – Wed Afternoon

◦ Workshop 132 - New Ways the NWS is Communicating Tropical Cyclone Hazards –Thu Afternoon

◦ Workshop 142 – Wind Forecasting: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly – Friday Morning

2014 - FLGHC

8

Hurricane Charley (ZFP)

CHARLEY (ZFP)

* Punta Gorda

Advisory Time: 20040813_1500 (0-12 Hours – First Period)

A Second Algorithm Example

2014 - FLGHC

Example: Forecast Applications: Expressions of UncertaintyAdvisory Time: 20040902_1500 (25-36 Hours – Third Period)

FRANCES (ZFP) FRANCES (Click Point)

Official in 2014

New Hurricane Local Statement (HLS)- 2015

Affected Area

Headline/Primary Message

New Information primarily pulled from TCP and grids

Brief Overview for entire Local Area

2014 - FLGHC

Potential Impacts

Uncertainty wording

Order based on largest expected impact

Information formatted using bullets/type lists making it easier to read and parse out of the document.

Easier to decode by vendors, web, and smart device based applications

Future plans include consideration for use of other more industry standard format (xml, etc)

2014 - FLGHC

New HLS- 2015

• WIND

- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: EQUIVALENT CAT 1 HURRICANE FORCE WIND

- PEAK SUSTAINED WIND FORECAST: 65-85 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 110 MPH

- WINDOW FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS: SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH

SUNDAY EVENING

- WINDOW FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS: SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY

MORNING

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY (WITH SAFETY MARGIN): EXTREME

- THREAT TREND: LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST

- MAKE PLANS: FOR THE CHANCE THAT THE WIND COULD LOCALLY REACH MAJOR

HURRICANE FORCE; ENACT YOUR EMERGENCY ACTION PLAN ACCORDINGLY

- TAKE ACTION: FOR EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING WIND TO

POSSIBLY OCCUR; FAILURE TO ACT MAY RESULT IN INJURY OR LOSS OF LIFE

- PREPARE: FOR THE CHANCE OF DEVASTATING TO CATASTROPHIC WIND IMPACTS

BASED ON THREAT ASSESSMENT THAT CONSIDERS PLAUSIBLE WORST CASE

SCENARIO FOR SAFETY

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When Supporting Decision-Makers

TCV

New WFO Local Watch/Warning Statement - 2015

• WIND

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS (FOR PLAUSIBLE WORST CASE): DEVASTATING

- STRUCTURES: MAJOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO STURDY BUILDINGS WITH SOME HAVING COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURES; COMPLETE DESTRUCTION OF MOBILE HOMES

- ROADS AND BRIDGES: MANY ROADS IMPASSABLE FROM LARGE DEBRIS

- TREES AND SIGNS: NUMEROUS LARGE TREES UPROOTED AND MANY LARGE SIGNS BLOWN DOWN

- POWER OUTAGES: WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES WITH SOME AREAS EXPERIENCING LONG-TERM OUTAGES

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TCV


• STORM SURGE AND TIDE

- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: MAJOR STORM SURGE FLOODING- PEAK STORM SURGE INUNDATION: 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL SOMEWHERE WITHIN

SURGE PRONE AREAS- WINDOW FOR STORM SURGE INUNDATION: SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY (WITH SAFETY MARGIN): HIGH- THREAT TREND: INCREASING- MAKE PLANS: FOR THE CHANCE THAT SURGE INUNDATION COULD LOCALLY REACH

5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE GROUND SOMEWHERE WITHIN SURGE PRONE AREAS- TAKE ACTION: FOR VERY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE FLOODING TOPOSSIBLY OCCUR; FAILURE TO ACT MAY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT LOSS OF LIFE

- PREPARE: FOR THE CHANCE OF EXTENSIVE STORM SURGE IMPACTS BASED ON A THREAT ASSESSMENT THAT CONSIDERS THE PLAUSIBLE WORST CASE SCENARIO FOR SAFETY

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS (FOR PLAUSIBLE WORST CASE): EXTENSIVE- STRUCTURES: MAJOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO SHORELINE BUILDINGS FROM OCEAN

WATER AND BATTERING WAVES; SOME WASHED INTO THE SEA - ROADS: SECTIONS OF ROADS AND LOW-LYING ESCAPE ROUTES SEVERELY FLOODED OR

WASHED OUT- BEACHES: SEVERE BEACH EROSION; POSSIBLE NEW CUTS; EXTREME RIP CURRENTS- MARINE: MAJOR DAMAGE TO NEARBY PORTS…DOCKS…AND MARINAS; MANY SMALL CRAFT

BROKEN AWAY FROM MOORINGS; SOME LIFTED AND STRANDED INLAND

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TCV

Companion to revised HLS

Coding with all watches and warnings in effect

Locations Affected: Where

Statement of Confidence

Wind: Emphasis is on specific hazard information to the sub county level to include also:◦ What, When, How Long

◦ Potential Impacts

◦ Information is based on official forecast and implicit used of probabilistic information

2014 - FLGHC


In addition to Wind:

Surge

Rainfall

Tornadoes

2014 - FLGHC


Example: A major hurricane approximately 36-hours from

projected landfall (Hurricane Warning issued). Deterministic

NHC track/intensity forecast used

by WFO’s to create local wind

forecasts (location/timing specific)

NHC

WFO’s

NHC 34 kt probability

NHC 64 kt probability

Probabalistic

NHC wind probabilities

also incorporated to

produce Impact Graphics

Threat/Potential Impact Graphics

Official Forecast Actual Threat/Potential Impacts

Example: Approaching major hurricane at the onset of the warning

period (~ 36 hours). Remember to consider the trend with these from

advisory to advisory also. Notice implicit use of probabilistic information.

QUESTION: When advocating the measure of protective

actions according to wind impacts, which is better?2014 - FLGHC

Threat/Potential Impact Graphics

Potential Inundation

Graphic (2014)

Not a deterministic inundation graphic!

Based on exceedance graphics (10%, 20%, 30%?)

Values above ground level are potential values given exceedance chosen.

More suited to help decision makers refine evacuation decisions

Threat/Impact Graphics more suited for messaging of area wide threat and potential impact/What people should be preparing for.

2014 - FLGHC

Take Away

During tropical cyclones, local NWS offices provide a variety of products and services based on the decision support cycle of threat assessment, impacts recognition, messaging, and communication.

◦ Through our own public forecasts

◦ Hurricane Local Statements (social science)

◦ Tropical Cyclone Threat/Potential Impact graphics (social science)

◦ Email Briefs, Webinar, and conference calls (most effective to EM) Emphasis is on what, where, when, and for how long. This pertains to the threat.

And Potential impacts

We see our role as that of dissecting complex information making it relevant to you.

◦ Web: http://weather.gov/ and click over your local area.

Goal is to help you Plan for the Threat/Prepare for the Impacts.

Are there any plans to better integrate access to info including new enhanced products and services on the Web?2014 - FLGHC

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Tropical Cyclone Impacts GraphicsDS/PS/SW

NHC Storm Information WFO Local Information

NOTE: Click on Storm will open page with NHC page on that storm. We can also bring that page within a pop up window in the context of this page or open a new tab sending to NHC page.

Mock-up

Common Operating Picture

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AdvisoriesCoastal Watches/WarningsWind Speed ForecastProjected Track & Uncertainty ConeWind Speed Probabilities

HURRICANE OMEGA

Mock-up

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NOTE: Other desired features here include ability to activate other popular layers such as Radar, Satellite, Hazards (including all Watches/Warnings).


Mock-up

HURRICANE OMEGA

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NOTE: Click over your local area (where you live) for local information


Mock-up

HURRICANE OMEGA

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NOTE: Click anywhere in the map with Local Forecast option active. If in Neighborhood mode you get point and click, otherwise you get county/zone based forecast. Display Watches and Warnings layers in the background.Legend should include all watches/warnings plotted.

Neighborhood

HURRICANE OMEGA


Mock-up

County

Local Forecast Local Statements Local Threats/Impacts

Legend

Hurricane Warning

Threat Meter

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NOTE: Click anywhere in the map with Local Forecast option active. If in Neighborhood mode you get point and click, otherwise you get county/zone based forecast. Display Watches and Warnings layers in the background.Legend should include all watches/warnings plotted.

Neighborhood

HURRICANE OMEGA


Mock-up

County

Legend

Hurricane Warning

Local Forecast Local Statements Local Threats/Impacts Threat Meter

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HURRICANE OMEGA


Mock-up

Legend

Hurricane Warning

Areawide County

NOTE: With Local Statement option on, if in Areawide mode when the user clicks over a particular area the HLS from the corresponding office should pop up in a window with scrolling capability. If none is available state so. Display Watches and Warnings layers in the background. Legend should include all watches/warnings plotted.


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HURRICANE OMEGA


Mock-up

Legend

Hurricane Warning

Areawide Statement County

NOTE: With Local Statement option on, if in County mode when the user clicks over a particular area the information from the local TCV statement for that ZONE should pop up in a scroll up window. Display Watches and Warnings layers in the background.Legend should include all watches/warnings plotted.


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NOTE: With Threats & Impacts button active, users should be able to switch among hazards from tabs at the bottom. The threat of a hazard is depicted on the map, and the potential impact is revealed if a user clicks on the map in a pop-up.

Wind Storm Surge Flooding Rain

HURRICANE OMEGA


Mock-up

Tornadoes


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NHC Storm Information

Wind Storm Surge Flooding Rain Tornadoes

HURRICANE OMEGA

WFO Local Information

NOTE: Click anywhere to get a combined threat assessment from wind, storm surge, flooding rain, and tornadoes for your location. Background maps defaults to Wind but can be changed by clicking on the appropriate hazard tab below.

This THREAT-METER is extracted from the threat grids already existing in the NDFD.

Hurricane Omega

o Point and Click • County

Mock-up


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NHC Storm Information

Wind Storm Surge Flooding Rain Tornadoes

HURRICANE OMEGA

WFO Local Information

NOTE: Click anywhere to get a combined composite max threat assessment from wind, storm surge, flooding rain, and tornadoes for your county. Background maps defaults to Wind but can be changed by clicking on the appropriate hazard tab below.

This THREAT-METER is extracted from the threat grids already existing in the NDFD.

Hurricane Omega

o Point and Click • County

Mock-up


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