the good, bad and ugly of the 2015 global economy aglf ... · may 7, 2015 strategy, forecasting,...
TRANSCRIPT
May 7, 2015 Strategy, Forecasting, Risk Analysis
The Good, Bad and Ugly of the
2015 Global Economy
AGLF - Denver
Chris Kuehl
Managing Director – Armada Corporate Intelligence
Economic Analyst – NACM, FMA
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Have I Lowered Expectations Enough Now?
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Europe Sees the US
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What’s Up With Oil?
• The American Contribution
– Import and exports
– Cost structure of shale oil
• The OPEC contribution
– Market share battle
• Russia’s contribution
– All about cash flow
• Europe’s contribution
– Third recession in five years
• Asia’s contribution
– Slow shift away from export centered economy in China
– Low export demand in general
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Falling Much?
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Imports Falling Like a Rock
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Growth in 2015
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Really Bad
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Public Debt
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Trade Deficit
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Dollar Value
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Just Sayin’
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China Slows Down
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Better than Most
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Just How Big is the US?
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The Global PMI Story
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Mexican Manufacturing
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Combined CMI
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Manufacturing CMI
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Service CMI
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Just Could Not Resist
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