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TTHEHE GGLOBALLOBAL TTERRORISMERRORISM DDATABASEATABASE (GTD)(GTD)AANNOUNCINGNNOUNCING THETHE RRELEASEELEASE OFOF NNEWEW GGLOBALLOBAL TTERRORISMERRORISM DDATAATA TTHROUGHHROUGH 20102010
JJUNEUNE 29, 2011 29, 2011
EERINRIN MMILLERILLER
GTD PGTD PROJECTROJECT MMANAGERANAGER
National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism
A CENTER OF EXCELLENCE SUPPORTED BY THE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY DIRECTORATE
OF THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY
INTRODUCTION:INTRODUCTION:The Global Terrorism DatabaseThe Global Terrorism Database
INTRODUCTION: INTRODUCTION: WHAT IS THE GTD?WHAT IS THE GTD?
The Global Terrorism Database (GTD) isThe Global Terrorism Database (GTD) isThe Global Terrorism Database (GTD) is The Global Terrorism Database (GTD) is an openan open--source database including source database including information on domestic andinformation on domestic andinformation on domestic and information on domestic and international terrorist events around the international terrorist events around the world since 1970 (currently updated world since 1970 (currently updated ( y p( y pthrough 2010). It contains data on through 2010). It contains data on where, when, and how over 98,000 where, when, and how over 98,000 t i t t dt i t t dterrorist events occurred.terrorist events occurred.
WWHATHAT ISIS THETHE GGLOBALLOBAL TTERRORISMERRORISM DDATABASEATABASE??
Origins of the GTDOrigins of the GTD–– “GTD1” 1970“GTD1” 1970--1997 (PGIS/START)1997 (PGIS/START)GTD1 1970GTD1 1970 1997 (PGIS/START)1997 (PGIS/START)–– “GTD2” 1998“GTD2” 1998--2007 (CETIS/START)2007 (CETIS/START)–– 20082008--present (ISVG/START)present (ISVG/START)20082008 present (ISVG/START)present (ISVG/START)
SourcesSourcesPinkerton Global Intelligence Service (PGIS)Pinkerton Global Intelligence Service (PGIS)–– Pinkerton Global Intelligence Service (PGIS)Pinkerton Global Intelligence Service (PGIS)
–– Newspapers/ NewswiresNewspapers/ NewswiresR di /TV T i tR di /TV T i t–– Radio/TV TranscriptsRadio/TV Transcripts
–– Terrorism ChronologiesTerrorism ChronologiesS D RS D R–– State Department ReportsState Department Reports
–– World Wide WebWorld Wide Web
DDEFINITIONEFINITION OFOF TTERRORISMERRORISM
“Acts by non“Acts by non--state actors involving the state actors involving the yy gg
threatened or actual use of illegal force threatened or actual use of illegal force
or violence to attain a political, or violence to attain a political,
economic religious or social goaleconomic religious or social goaleconomic, religious or social goal economic, religious or social goal
through fear, coercion, or intimidation.”through fear, coercion, or intimidation.”gg
DDEFINITIONEFINITION OFOF TTERRORISMERRORISM ((CONTCONT.).)
Mandatory inclusion criteriaMandatory inclusion criteria::–– The incident must be intentional The incident must be intentional –– the result of a the result of a
i l l ti th t f t ti l l ti th t f t tconscious calculation on the part of a perpetrator.conscious calculation on the part of a perpetrator.–– The incident must entail some level of violence The incident must entail some level of violence
(includes property violence) or the threat of violence.(includes property violence) or the threat of violence.–– There must be subThere must be sub--national perpetratorsnational perpetratorsThere must be subThere must be sub national perpetratorsnational perpetrators
At least two of the following criteria must be met:At least two of the following criteria must be met:1)1) The act must be aimed at attaining a political economicThe act must be aimed at attaining a political economic1)1) The act must be aimed at attaining a political, economic, The act must be aimed at attaining a political, economic,
religious, or social goal. In terms of economic goals, the religious, or social goal. In terms of economic goals, the exclusive pursuit of profit does not satisfy this criterionexclusive pursuit of profit does not satisfy this criterion
2)2) There must be evidence of an intention to coerce, intimidate, There must be evidence of an intention to coerce, intimidate, or convey some other message to a larger audience (oror convey some other message to a larger audience (oror convey some other message to a larger audience (or or convey some other message to a larger audience (or audiences) than the immediate victims. audiences) than the immediate victims.
3)3) The action must be outside the context of legitimate warfare The action must be outside the context of legitimate warfare activities, i.e. the act must be outside the parameters activities, i.e. the act must be outside the parameters
itt d b i t ti l h it i l ( ti l l thitt d b i t ti l h it i l ( ti l l thpermitted by international humanitarian law (particularly the permitted by international humanitarian law (particularly the admonition against deliberately targeting civilians or nonadmonition against deliberately targeting civilians or non--combatants).combatants).
TTYPESYPES OFOF IINFORMATIONNFORMATION IINCLUDEDNCLUDEDTTYPESYPES OFOF IINFORMATIONNFORMATION IINCLUDEDNCLUDED
Type of terrorist activityType of terrorist activity Is the U.S. the target?Is the U.S. the target?Type of terrorist activityType of terrorist activity–– AssassinationAssassination–– Armed AssaultArmed Assault
B bi /E l iB bi /E l i
Is the U.S. the target?Is the U.S. the target? Terrorist groups involved Terrorist groups involved Weapons usedWeapons used
–– Bombing/ExplosionBombing/Explosion–– Facility/Infrastructure AttackFacility/Infrastructure Attack–– HijackingHijacking
pp Target characteristicsTarget characteristics Incident outcomeIncident outcome
–– Hostage Taking (Barricade)Hostage Taking (Barricade)–– Hostage Taking (Kidnapping)Hostage Taking (Kidnapping)–– Unarmed AssaultUnarmed Assault
Casualties and injuriesCasualties and injuries Property damageProperty damageUnarmed AssaultUnarmed Assault
Incident dateIncident date City/province/country/regionCity/province/country/regiony/p / y/ gy/p / y/ g
METHODOLOGICALMETHODOLOGICALImproving the Global Terrorism DatabaseImproving the Global Terrorism Database
METHODOLOGICAL METHODOLOGICAL CHALLENGESCHALLENGES
IIMPROVINGMPROVING THETHE GTD: CGTD: CODINGODING CCONSISTENCYONSISTENCYIIMPROVINGMPROVING THETHE GTD: CGTD: CODINGODING CCONSISTENCYONSISTENCY
Example: Perpetrator Group NamesExample: Perpetrator Group Names
Shining Path (SL)Shining Path (SL) SenderoSendero LuminosoLuminoso Shining Path (SL)Shining Path (SL)
(S.L.) Shining Path(S.L.) Shining Path Sundero LuminosoSundero Luminoso SenderoSendero Shining Path (SL)Shining Path (SL)
Shining Path Org.Shining Path Org. Bright Path(Bright Path(SenderoSendero LuminosoLuminoso)) Communist Party of PeruCommunist Party of Peru
S dS d L iL i
Sendero Rojo (Red Path)Sendero Rojo (Red Path) SenderoSendero LuminosaLuminosa--
Columbian Revolutionary Columbian Revolutionary Armed Armed FrcFrc
SanderoSandero LuminosoLuminoso Group of Extremists (probably Group of Extremists (probably
Shining Path)Shining Path) Shining PathShining Path
SLSL SenderoSendero LuminosoLuminoso Luminous PathLuminous Path MoaistMoaist Shining GroupShining Group
Shining Path guerrillasShining Path guerrillas Maoist Shining PathMaoist Shining Path seuderoseudero luminosoluminoso MaaistMaaist Shining PathShining Path
MoaistMoaist Shining GroupShining Group Supporters Jailed Peruvian Supporters Jailed Peruvian
SenderoSendero LuminosLuminos LeaderLeader SCSC
k b t (Shi ik b t (Shi i MaaistMaaist Shining PathShining Path unknown saboteurs (Shining unknown saboteurs (Shining Path suspected)Path suspected)
IIMPROVINGMPROVING THETHE GTD: GTD: SS DD CCSSUPPLEMENTALUPPLEMENTAL DDATAATA CCOLLECTIONOLLECTION
D th f t d t b ifi d fD th f t d t b ifi d f Depth of coverage tends to be sacrificed for Depth of coverage tends to be sacrificed for breadth.breadth.
Goal: Include Goal: Include allall incidents of terrorism in the incidents of terrorism in the GTD.GTD.
Solution: Compare the GTD to many different Solution: Compare the GTD to many different sources of terrorism event data to check forsources of terrorism event data to check forsources of terrorism event data to check for sources of terrorism event data to check for missing cases and add them to the database.missing cases and add them to the database.
SSUPPLEMENTALUPPLEMENTAL DDATAATA CCOLLECTIONOLLECTION: U: UNITEDNITED SSTATESTATES
450
500
Terrorist Attacks in the United States, 1970-2010
350
400
450
S l l
200
250
300
Freq
uen
cy
Supplemental
Original Data
100
150
200F
0
50
YearSource: Global Terrorism Database
SSUPPLEMENTALUPPLEMENTAL DDATAATA CCOLLECTIONOLLECTION: S: SRIRI LLANKAANKA
600
Terrorist Attacks in Sri Lanka, 1970-2010
400
500 Supplemental
Original Data
300
Freq
uen
cy
100
200
0
YearSource: Global Terrorism Database
SSUPPLEMENTALUPPLEMENTAL DDATAATA CCOLLECTIONOLLECTION: A: ALGERIALGERIA
350
400
Terrorist Attacks in Algeria, 1970-2010
300
350
Supplemental
Original Data
200
250
Freq
uen
cy
Original Data
100
150
F
0
50
YearSource: Global Terrorism Database
EEXPANDINGXPANDING THETHE GTD: NGTD: NEWEW VVARIABLESARIABLESEEXPANDINGXPANDING THETHE GTD: NGTD: NEWEW VVARIABLESARIABLES
Suicide AttacksSuicide Attacks
IED InvolvementIED Involvement
International/Domestic IndicatorInternational/Domestic Indicator
Location/Location/GeocodingGeocoding
PATTERNS OF TERRORISMPATTERNS OF TERRORISMGlobal Terrorism DatabaseGlobal Terrorism Database
PATTERNS OF TERRORISM PATTERNS OF TERRORISM 19701970--20102010
6000
TERRORIST ATTACKS AND FATAL TERRORIST ATTACKS, 1970-2010N=98,112
5000
Total Attacks
Fatal Attacks
4000
y
Fatalities >10
3000
Freq
uen
cy
2000
0
1000
0
YearSource: Global Terrorism Database
TWENTY TOP RANKING COUNTRIES: TOTAL TERRORIST ATTACKS AND FATALITIES, 1970-2010
Most Frequently Attacked Most FatalitiesMost Frequently Attacked Most FatalitiesRank Country Attack Count Country Fatality Count1 Colombia 7,180 Iraq 25,0262 Iraq 6,475 India 15,8663 I di 6 114 S i L k 15 4813 India 6,114 Sri Lanka 15,4814 Peru 6,045 Colombia 13,2715 El Salvador 5,327 Peru 12,8506 Pakistan 4,436 El Salvador 12,4967 Northern Ireland 3,885 Nicaragua 11,3248 Spain 3,205 Pakistan 10,1079 Philippines 3,191 Algeria 10,04710 Sri Lanka 2,924 Philippines 6,88111 Turkey 2,745 Afghanistan 6,27312 Afghanistan 2,585 Guatemala 5,15013 Algeria 2,357 Turkey 4,72514 United States 2,347 Burundi 4,11415 Chile 2,305 Russia 3,50716 Guatemala 2,035 United States 3,46917 Lebanon 2,016 Lebanon 3,27218 Nicaragua 1,986 Rwanda 3,21018 Nicaragua 1,986 Rwanda 3,21019 South Africa 1,921 Angola 2,85320 Thailand 1,697 Northern Ireland 2,849
Source: Global Terrorism Database
AATTACKSTTACKS & F& FATALITIESATALITIES BYBY RREGIONEGION, 1970, 1970--20102010
MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA
ASIA
SOUTH AMERICA
MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN
EUROPE
INCIDENTS
NORTH AMERICA
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA FATALITIES
AUSTRALASIA & OCEANIA
RUSSIA & THE NEWLY INDEPENDENTSTATES (NIS)
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
AUSTRALASIA & OCEANIA
Source: Global Terrorism Database
WEAPONS USED IN TERRORIST ATTACKS, 1970-2010 (N=98,112)( , )
IncendiaryMelee2 14% Other
Unknown8.47%
Incendiary7.58%
2.14% Other0.49%
Explosives/ Bombs/
Dynamitey45.85%Firearms
35.48%
Source: Global Terrorism Database
160
“TACTICALLY COMPLEX” ATTACKS BY TERRORISTS, 1970-2010
140
100
120
Att
acks
60
80
Nu
mbe
r of
A
20
40
N
0
20
YearSource: Global Terrorism Database
70
TOTAL FATALITIES PER TERRORIST ATTACK, 1970-2010 (N=98,112*)70
57.2360 57.2360
40
50
nt 1970-2004
48.05
40
50
nt
30Per
cen
23.40
30Per
cen 2005-2010
19.08
12.51
6 5210
20 19.08
12.51
6 52
16.58
6 9710
20
6.523.26
1.40
0
10
0 1 2 to 4 5 to 10 11 to 25 over 25
6.523.26
1.40
6.973.47
1.53
0
10
0 1 2 to 4 5 to 10 11 to 25 over 25
Number of Fatalities
*Data on fatalities were missing in 7.0% of cases Source: Global Terrorism Database
Number of Fatalities
TOP RANKING PERPETRATORS: TOTAL TERRORIST ATTACKS, 1970-2010Rank Perpetrator Attack Count Fatalitiesp1 Shining Path (SL) 4518 116662 Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front (FMLN) 3357 85083 Irish Republican Army (IRA) 2673 18074 Basque Fatherland and Freedom (ETA) 2005 8214 Basque Fatherland and Freedom (ETA) 2005 8215 Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) 1907 50046 Taliban 1799 47407 Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) 1600 108418 National Liberation Army of Colombia (ELN) 1308 17619 New People's Army (NPA) 1283 338510 Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) 1191 357111 Communist Party of India ‐Maoist (CPI‐M) 1040 1554y ( )12 Nicaraguan Democratic Force (FDN) 899 726813 Manuel Rodriguez Patriotic Front (FPMR) 830 9314 African National Congress (South Africa) 606 62415 Corsican National Liberation Front (FLNC) 572 1315 Corsican National Liberation Front (FLNC) 572 1316 M‐19 (Movement of April 19) 564 140217 Tupac Amaru Revolutionary Movement (MRTA) 561 56018 People's Liberation Front (JVP) 434 89119 National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA) 421 256220 Hizballah 366 1189
Source: Global Terrorism Database
TOP RANKING PERPETRATORS: TOTAL TERRORIST ATTACKS, 2005-2010Rank Perpetrator Attack Count Fatalities1 Taliban 1669 44192 Communist Party of India ‐Maoist (CPI‐M) 1040 15543 Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) 468 15674 Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) 410 4314 Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) 410 4315 New People's Army (NPA) 237 1846 Islamic State of Iraq (ISI) 174 18397 Al‐Qa`ida in Iraq 159 17898 Al‐Shabaab 156 6149 United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) 147 30310 Tehrik‐i‐Taliban Pakistan (TTP) 130 113311 Al‐Qa`ida in the Lands of the Islamic Maghreb (AQLIM) 127 510Q g ( Q )12 Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) 119 15113 Salafist Group for Preaching and Fighting (GSPC) 110 25614 Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) 105 12015 P l ti i I l i Jih d (PIJ) 102 6715 Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) 102 6716 Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) 95 86417 Basque Fatherland and Freedom (ETA) 94 2118 Hamas (Islamic Resistance Movement) 86 10919 Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) 82 10320 Al‐Aqsa Martyrs Brigade 79 57
Source: Global Terrorism Database
80
LONGEVITY OF TERRORIST GROUPS 1970-2010
60
70
50
60
nt
30
40
Per
cen
20
0
10
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10+0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10+
Life Span of Group (In Years)Source: Global Terrorism Database
IINVESTIGATINGNVESTIGATING PPATTERNSATTERNS OFOF
Global Terrorism Database: ResearchGlobal Terrorism Database: Research
IINVESTIGATINGNVESTIGATING PPATTERNSATTERNS OFOFTTERRORISMERRORISM ANDAND THETHE IIMPACTMPACT OFOFCCCCOUNTERTERRORISMOUNTERTERRORISM
Effects of Counterterrorism StrategiesEffects of Counterterrorism StrategiesTerrorist Attacks by Irish Republicans
250
150
200
uenc
y
50
100Freq
u
0
1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992
O ti M tFalls Curfew
Internment
Operation Motorman
Criminalization
Loughgall IncidentGibraltar Incident
Source: LaFree, Dugan and Korte (2009)
Internment
CLASSIFICATION OFTRAJECTORY ANALYSIS OF CLASSIFICATION OF
COUNTRY TRAJECTORIES
“BIRTH” TRAJECTORIES OFTERRORIST PERPETRATORS
TRAJECTORY ANALYSIS OF
53 ANTI‐U.S. GROUPS
PATTERNS OF DECLINE AMONG
T OTERRORIST PERPETRATORS TERRORIST ORGANIZATIONS
Website and GTD ToolsWebsite and GTD ToolsGlobal Terrorism Database OutreachGlobal Terrorism Database Outreach
Website and GTD ToolsWebsite and GTD Tools
www.start.umd.edu/gtdwww.start.umd.edu/gtdQuestions? Comments?Questions? Comments?
www.start.umd.edu/gtdwww.start.umd.edu/[email protected]@start.umd.edu