JANUARY - JUNE 2002 13

Terrorismand Global Trends

Krunoslav Antolis·Original paper

UDC 327.8Received in May 2002

This paper tries to determine the cause-and-effect relations in the world trends which generatechange in the stability of the world economies, especially of the small states, affecting in that

way, global security, i.e. security of the world powers like the U.S.A. and others. Ability tolocate potential centers of terrorism in the world is of the utmost importance: for yesterday,today and tomorrow with the aim of achieving effective methodological approach to fight

terrorism. Therefore, it is necessary to define economic, political and military factors, which,at the global level and within the philosophy of trends, determine the world scene. Based onsuch research, with recognized potential consequences of the trends-motifs that produce a

critical mass of discontent needed for generating a crisis or a terrorist act, this paper inaugu-rates a new shape of pre-emptive fight against incoming new wave of terrorism. The papersuccessively discusses the effects of determined world trends, particularly from the view ofeconomic, political and military stability of the small states and regions being directly con-

nected with security of the big powers, i.e. with global security in the world.

Key words: terrorism, pre-emptive, economic, political, military, trends,education, permanent threat

1. Introduction

This paper puts forward only one aspect ofthe issue, while the goal of the main project whichInstitute for Defense Studies, Research and Devel-opment of Ministry of Defense, (MOD) deals withis the scientific-based concept of systematic fightagainst all shapes of terrorism in the Republic ofCroatia in accord with the implementation of the UNSecurity Council Resolution 1373.

To understand integral achievements from thesegment this paper discusses, it is necessary topresent the goal of the main project, which is to cre-ate the basis for structuring trends needed to makeextrapolating sample model. Its purpose is to fore-see the situations favorable for appearance, devel-opment and support of all shapes of terrorism todayand in future. Prior to this, it will be necessary togive parameters of determined trends and then toquantify the parameters. No less important goal ofthe main project is creation of needed prerequisites

. Assistant Professor, Faculty of Economics, Universityof Zagreb

for development of pre-emptive models of fight-ing against appearance of terrorism, preventing itsfurther development and breaking down its support-ing systems at present and in future and finally itselimination.

Expected results of this methodological ap-proach by simulation method should enable crea-tion of extrapolation scenarios - within Croatianstate borders, in the region and wider area. Thesesupposition scenarios, at scientific level, should giveus well grounded indicators and basis necessary toback-up the system of making strategic, opera-tive and tactical decisions, regarding location ofpotential terrorists centers, their appearance, de-velopment and necessary support system.

All the indicators should be aimed at creatingeffective preventive system to fight terrorism andhelp us to give adequate response to potential ter-rorism-caused crisis.

We hold that the inaugurated methodologi-cal approach and the following six project tasksof the sub-working team for science and technologyof MOD offer solution to the previously defmed mainissue tasks:

r 14 CROATIAN iNTERNATIONAL RELATIO S REVIEW

Information age and new shapes of terrorism;Development of methodology of evaluating risk andearly warning of terrorism - caused political and se-curity crisis;

Development of simulation to respond to ter-rorism-caused crisis;

Multi-department structuring of virtual organi-zation to fight terrorism;

Geomorphologic aspects of potential terroristthreats to RC;

Monitoring of submarine area as security pri-ority.

New world order starts to be shaped underinfluence of numerous trends originating from tech-nological changes and expanding liberal life val-ues. World trends can be, in principle, viewed fromsome most important aspects as follows: economic.political and military. which, indirectly, accordingto action and reaction principle, influence the ap-pearance of terrorism as a reaction to status quo thathas enabled disproportional political, material afflu-ence and power to individuals who do not want togive them up by any means although being perilousfor them. Determining the world trends requires con-sideration of our domestic problems through poten-tial interactions with the problems Croatia will notbe spared.We have determined and divided the theses generat-ing the trends into the groups as follows:

I. Growing weapons proliferation is prima-rily present not future matter to consider,

2. Focusing on domestic problems means lim-iting national security capacities,

3. Information technology pushes back heavyindustry as a basis of national power,

4. International organizations take over impor-tant legitimate role despite their limited capacities,

5. Globalization creates space fortransnational threats but also gives new possibili-ties,

6. Democracy is getting a general ideal, evena general norm,

7. Sovereign states are faced with fragmenta-tion challenge,

8. Governments give more importance to eco-nomic interests than to traditional national securityinterest,

2. Growing weapons proliferationis primarily present not future

matter to consider

Nuclear arms program supported by roguestates has proved to be hard to stop despite nuclear

weapons proliferation threat. Nuclear arms supplyof some rogue states can destabilize entire regionsand make the situation in Europe but also in theworld, complicated in many ways, e.g. in the Mid-dle East (Iraq). Providing arms supply seems to be agrowing problem. Many states are developing indus-trial basis needed for nuclear arms production (for50 years old technology). Continuing economic prob-lems in the former Soviet Union provide good con-ditions for committing criminal acts of sabotage withtheir nuclear arsenal and knowledge of nuclear tech-nology. Access to nuclear and chemical weapons ismuch easier. Cuts of demands for weapons of massdestruction require structuring of a world order inwhich such weapons will not be military and politi-cal advantage to the states or individuals -proliferators. To decrease regional tension, the con-cern of the leading powers should be their neighbors'aspirations. The second part of the process is build-ing of an international agreement (consensus) againstproliferators and encouraging the world leading nu-clear powers to reduce the existing nuclear supplies.The armament control should be focused on coun-ter-proliferation of the weapons of mass destruction.The goals in this field include: providing securitymeasures and destruction of nuclear arms in theformer republics of the Soviet Union: Ukraine,Belarus and Kazakhstan; freezing the existing pro-grams as the first step in creating conditions to stopnuclear programs (south Asia, North Korea); thwartnuclear capacities of rogue states by combining de-nial of technology (Iran, Libya) and imposing a verystrict control (Iraq); control of nuclear weapons pro-liferation where it already exists (south Asia) anddevelopment of counter-proliferation measuresagainst the "stubborn" that includes capacity ofdefense (protection) from weapons of mass destruc-tion. Proliferation agenda, agreement of the field ofactivity, also includes elimination of chemical andbiological arrns, as well as tightening the missile tech-nology control. In this respect, Croatia has alreadymade concrete steps which are recognized in con-clusions and papers presented at the internationalscientific symposiums on chemical weapons control.

3. Focusing on domesticproblems means limiting national

security capacities

The end of the cold war and the establishmentof peace between super powers were mostly resultsof foreign policy and, to a lesser degree, of a pres-sure made on people in many states. But today, theworld public is more preoccupied with domestic

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"troubles" concerning social problems, especially thereduced economic growth in the past twenty years.

Focusing on domestic policy in the statesworldwide, including Croatia, has the basis in the"crossfire policy" theory. Center believes that a statemust improve its economy before it proves its inter-nationalism. Left, however, holds that military andforeign expenses exhaust finances, so it is better touse them at home ("imperial overstretch" theorywhich they find a cause of national fall). Right be-lieves that success of democracy and ideal of freemarket move the basis of active intervention abroad.As a well-educated man put down - the leftists donot want the state to influence the world, the right-ists do not want the world to influence the state.

The Soviet threat disappeared. Public opinionin many states insists today on cutting down thedefense costs. In the USA, North and East Europeand Russia, military power is being reduced and thearms supply is going down faster than expected. Cutsin the USA for example, affect even the budget theUSA needs to maintain its presence in the world, itsforeign bases infrastructure, intelligence services,military power and military programs of co-opera-tion. The trend of cutting down the (military) poweris not a general idea, it is felt in Croatia, too. Thepowers are partly determined with permanent threatsin the regions, e.g. there is still concern in SouthEurope about the situation in the south and east ofthe Mediterranean. Military expenses grow in South-East Asia so that bigger states draw up generousmilitary budgets. Priority given to domestic policyin most developed states is indirectly turned intomilitary power. The states do not welcome takingresponsibilities regarding common good by makingspecial urgent responses. At the same time, peace-keeping operations are impeded by growing publicemotions about the accidents, especially thosebrought about during the military operations whichdid not get consensus and public support since theywere not needed to protect national interests.

4. Information technology pushesback heavy industry as the source

of national power

Superiority of information technology has sur-prised and pushed back heavy industry as dominat-ing basis of national power, whether througheconomy or military field.

Industrial growth is much faster in informa-tion technology and communications fields and itkeeps on with the introduction of new technology"stepping without a break". Expansion of this trend

to battlefield announces that information-based war-fare will be more widespread within the next twodecades. Military demands will require more invest-ments into information systems and less in indus-trial-age developed tanks, aircraft and ships. Natureand command of information technologies are be-coming a global issue. A state like ours, where legis-lation in that respect, is yet to be developed whilethe forms of sophisticated counter-terrorist fight arestill based on old hardware-software products, canbe faced with great difficulties in that field. The ques-tion is how much this internalization trend can costus, if our experts do not come to grips with it and atleast protect important state resources.

5. International organizations takeover important legitimate roledespite their limited capacities

Partly due to failure of some nation-states,partly due to the world public opinion, which givesthem more important status, the international organi-zations have become more acceptable even when theylimit national sovereignty in various domains. Grow-ing importance of the international organizationsdemands their authorization to use force. Althoughthe cold war legalized free world alliance, on theother side, it made the UN rather powerless. The endof the cold war gave a new role to the UN in legiti-mizing the use of force. However, the first enthusi-asm for multilateral action gradually disappeared,first, due to experience from the early 90s when theinternational organizations proved less effective indealing with and responding to humanitarian catas-trophe and civil wars. The view of the then Clinton'sadministration that they had had enough of changesclaiming to be overall and multilateral ever since theyhad been established changed with Administration'scareful approach in early spring 1994 bringing aboutPresidential Decision Directive (POD) 25. Multilat-eral action turned to be complicated especially dueto disagreement about political goals among the statesand organizations and the issues dealing with appro-priate and timely decision making, limited militarycapacities of multilateral organizations, quickly madecoalitions, public sympathy for the victims of"acci-dents" in multilateral operations and the last but notleast, due to high financial expenses of conductingmultilateral operations. Not the entire world com-munity should be involved in every crisis. Regionalorganizations have the leading role in settling somelocal problems that more directly affect their mem-bers, but those organizations might need more fi-nances and cohesion and alliance to intervene effec-

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tively so that they still need support from abroad.UN assigned their role to the member states - the"powers" most interested in some particular regionor problem, the approach called "the region undermultilateral influence". Recent events warned thatmultinational organizations like UN Secretariat, In-ternational Atomic Energy Agency (lAEA), Inter-national Monetary Fund (lMF) and General Agree-ment on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) have their owninstitutional interest. Their interests are not in ac-cord with the goals of Croatia's foreign policy, i.e.foreign policy of some small states. Regardless ofthe influence which Croatia and similar states canhave on an organization, the organization normallyhave its own procedures, decision-making rules, itsown staff, and agenda. The respect that Croatia orsome other small state pays to the above mentionedorganizations does not mean automatic agreementwith and implementation of conclusions and deci-sions or acceptance of their judgment, e.g. of the UNwithout serious analysis. It can result in attitudesunacceptable to some member states or regions andcause inappropriate reaction to some of the worldassociations or some UN member state whose ini-tiative was supported but is unacceptable to otherparties.

Therefore, overall relations should be carefullystudied from the point of potential interpretations andconsequences thus preventing potential unwantedactions of terrorist groups.

6. Globalization creates space fortransnational threats but also

gives new possibilities

The pulse of the planet Earth is going fasteralong with the dynamics of changes on the worldscene. Technological achievements and open socie-ties permit free movement of goods and people with-out a precedent. These trends are probably propor-tional to the communications cost drop while the newWorld Trade Organization (WTO) lifts barriers tofree trade. Trade, finances and communications arebecoming more general, worldwide and global. Com-puters, faxes, optical cables and satellite speed ofinformation flow via state borders are the proof ofexplosive growth of Internet. Most of these border-crossing flows represent progress. However, it is alsopromotion of freedom since at the same time, gov-ernments lose power of control over exchange ofideas. That brings the concept of human rights anddemocratic rule to the farthest places. Yet, some ofthe impacts might be harmful. For example, terror-ists could share technical information with their dis-

tant fellows. Practically, technical data are easilyavailable both to positive pro-democratically-ori-ented fighters and to supporters of "ethnic cleans-ing" who could easily spread their negative ideologi-cal views on the Internet scene.

Transnational threats are getting differentshapes. The greatest concern is caused by the inter-national organization of crime. Organized crimegroups and international terrorism can put the worldgovernments into danger. Trafficking plutonium andenriched uranium could become a serious danger tonational security as well as scientifically equippedfirms owned by criminals. Barriers to purchasing andtransporting dangerous metals are easy to lift. Forexample, the US soldiers deployed in the UN opera-tions in ex-Yugoslavia are another form oftransnational danger, which includes internationalhealth care and ecological problems. Due to grow-ing trend of travels and migrations, epidemic dis-eases like AIDS have become global rather than lo-cal punishment. As the earth's resources have beenintensively used up, ecological problems have spreadfrom the developed to the less developed nations inthe world, e.g. the ozone holes. The danger for ordi-nary people has been manifold. Global warming,endangered animals and plants, the ozone layer de-pletion that protects the earth frighten all the worldnations.

The third form of transnational danger isforced migration. Many industrial societies feel thatmigrations have achieved intolerable level. Deterio-rated, unstable conditions in troubled small statesand easy access to the information on the world in-dustrialization will further encourage migrations.Mass exodus caused by political fights or naturaldisaster sometimes demands urgent aid and the de-ployment of military. Large numbers of refugeesmake their movements hard to keep under controldemanding even military force to stop them. Thatshows the need to build minimum stability of thesmall states that might become a source of migra-tion trends and cause problems for security of thebig states that are their destination. Their stability isdirectly threatened by potential migrant problems ofintegration and adjustment to life and work in newenvironment including terrorist activities.

7. Democracy is getting a generalideal even a general norm

World saw a democratization wave in 1970when some attempts were made in Croatia to estab-lish more just relations in ex-Yugoslavia, the move-ment called Croatian spring. In Latin America and

JANUARY - JUNE 2002 17

central Europe, democracy has become a standardwithout exception. Even in Asia and Africa wheremany governments are practically autocratic, manyhave the need to present themselves as democraticor being in transition to democracy. But defeat ofdemocratically elected governments in transitionalstates, the states of the former Soviet bloc is becom-ing unacceptable practice for the world community,bringing shame on democratic changes and makingthe situation even worse than before. It shows thatelections are not a guarantee of freedom. In sometransitional states neo-communists made comebackat the polls as a reaction to slow progress of reformsto improve life conditions of ordinary people. In theothers elections were held too early, before the es-tablishment offree press and other basic institutionsof civil society which resulted in fear of facing thepractice "one person, one vote, one time". Amongsome other nations, especially in India and Muslimstates, religious extremists, enjoying great popular-ity, appeal for continuing rejection of the rule basedon democratic principles as opposed to the rule basedon religious principles of "God's will" as they inter-pret it. That illustrates that undoubtedly positivetrend, such as democratization, can be misinterpretedby a number of small states and become an instru-ment of a bad cause becoming even a light motif ofterrorism which is used against something a prioritaken as a norm of human living which unfortunatelycannot be accepted for many reasons. It is an argu-ment for the thesis that educative component is ex-tremely important that it should create prerequisitesfor implementation of something that is a standardin developed states in the West, but to be acceptedfor instant, in small transitional states it should beexplained from all aspects and applied in a properway and at the right time. Only then, such trend canbe expected to have positive effects.

8. Sovereign states are faced withfragmentation challenge

Sovereign state is losing its unique role of thefoundation stone within the world order. As globali-zation goes on, governments are losing, to some ex-tent, control and supervision, so they are not able tooffer solutions to the problems their citizens are facedwith. Frustrated and discontented by the governmentincapacity to help them, people can turn against sov-ereign state accepting some other more or less effi-cient groups. The pressures of fragmentation oftendecrease the capacity of state to meet the needs ofits citizens. Fragmentation pressures take variousshapes. One of them is absence of law and appear-

ance of terrorism. The other is encouragement ofextreme ideology supported by radical and intoler-ant fundamentalist religious groups whose challengeis so-called "social bliss", harmony. Drop in nationalcohesion also influences the shaping of public serv-ices and politicians. Restraint and control of suchprocesses are loosening with growing corruption andcosts, uninterested public services. Sovereign statesare faced with a threat of separation of their organicparts by minorities. The demands of minorities aresometimes justified by their treatment by the intol-erant majority. Ideal of nation, independent, ego-de-cisions is legalization of fragmentation of multi-na-tional states sometimes of the units that cannot belegal nation-states. Sometimes, uni-national mini-states exclude minorities from political life. Democ-racy is not necessarily a "cure for everything" in thestate with national tensions. Tensions are hard tobalance and the rules of majority and national self-determination are hard to reconcile when strong mi-nority wants to separate itself from a big state. Ifthere is not guarantee of freedom against oppressionofmajority, democracy can increase ethnic problems.When voting is nationally based, the result of theelections, i.e. post-electoral policy is often imple-mentation of interests of small groups without com-promise although the elections were meant for com-mon benefit. Poor results of such inter-state tensionscould be seen worldwide. Forced nationalism, na-tional and ethno-religious bloody conflicts took placein Africa (Angola, Burundi, Nigeria, Sudan,Rwanda), the Middle East (Kurds), South Asia (SriLanka) the former Soviet Union (Georgia,Azerbaijan, Tajikistan), and even at the doorstep ofEuropean Union (ex-Yugoslavia).

9. Governments give moreimportance to economic

interests than to traditionalnational security interest

Security interest referring to economic organi-zations of national power has been given more promi-nence in industrialized nations. The states of EastAsia are satisfied with fast growth that pushes themforward while Europe and North America are con-cerned with the indicators showing significantlylower growth in the two decades since the oil shockin 1973 in comparison with the post-war decades.Civil servants have important role in creating inter-national business and politics. Big states like the USAgive priority to economic interests or regard them asequal to military and diplomatic interests. Similarsituation is with the interests regarding the US budget

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deficit, low national savings and the need to investinto future. Wide consensus has been made to sup-port the thesis that free economy is the best solution.The question is whether the best solution for the bigis acceptable for the small, what the consequencesfor the small and the effects on their economic sta-bility would be if those solutions were accepted. Bigstates experience the opposition contempt by thosewho want to protect domestic goods, the same isnormal to expect from some small states. But, forinstance, Clinton's administration made progresswith respect to open multilateral economy. It was aguarantee of Congressional ratification of NAFTAand replacement of GATT with WTO. It also pro-filed APRC and institutionalized annual conference,the mam one in the USA.

10. Conclusion

Summing up the above-mentioned in order todefine and structure the implementation task, amulti-step three-level approach is inauguratedwhich has strategic, operative-tactic and educa-tive stage of implementation.

Within strategic level it is necessary to scien-tifically research and define the terrorism issue es-pecially from the point of view of its appearance,development, the existing and potential support sys-tems to terrorism. The expected output at this stagewill serve as input for the next operative-tactical stageof creating expertise and standard operative proce-dures that will make algorithms and operations con-crete, needed to carry out particular tasks or pre-emptive measures by direct operative-tactical meas-ures in the field conditions.

Since terrorism is not a temporary situationbut permanent threat, which only changes its forms,to everything that was researched, to the ways ofsystematic resistance, fight and prevention againstterrorism, it is necessary to structure a system ofpermanent education at all levels of personnel in-cluded in the fight: military, police, judiciary, man-agers of all sorts and levels.

Therefore, we hold that developing preven-tion system of activities should fight the existing andespecially new forms of incoming terrorism. Unfor-tunately, we are in the situation that curative formof fight is dominant as terrorism is currently at thestage of offensive development and the existingpreventive mechanisms are not efficient enough, noteven researched enough and consequently not de-veloped.

The accepting of the concept put forward inthe paper could significantly contribute to the build-ing of a system to fight terrorism in the Republic of

Croatia and make it our contribution in developingthe world system to fight terrorism in accord withour principle that stability of the "small" implies se-curity of the "big"! •

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