the future of voice total telecom breakfast briefing june 2013 hot telecom
TRANSCRIPT
The Future of VoiceTOTAL TELECOM Breakfast Briefing
June 2013
HOT TELECOM
‘Rumours ofmy death have
been greatly exaggerated’
Mr. Voice
Traffic growth
16%1996
Net traffic add(billion minutes)
12%2001
5%2012
5%
10
17
24
332018F
Traffic: IDD + VoIP off-net
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
0
10
20
30
40
50
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Net add Polynomial (Net add) Growth rates Polynomial (Growth rates)
Traffic growth
Voice traffic growth (%) vs net add (billion minutes)
Traffic net add
THE GREAT MIGRATIONS
DEVICE MIGRATIONFixed to mobile
In 2006, 32% of the world’s telecom subscribers were subscribed to fixed services.
In 2013 this ratio is expected to have decreased to 14%.
In 2006, 60% of the world’s IDD traffic was generated by fixed subscribers.
In 2013 this ratio is expected to have decreased to 38%.
World fixed vs mobile IDD traffic ratio
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
IDD - Fixed
IDD - Mobile
TECHNOLOGY MIGRATIONTDM to IP
In 2006, 20% of the world’s International traffic was VoIP traffic.
In 2013, this ratio is expected to have reached 32%.
In 2018, we are forecasting that 53% of the world’s International traffic will be VoIP traffic.
World IDD vs VoIP International traffic
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
IDD VoIP off-net
SOCIAL MIGRATION
Calling yesterdayTexting todayUsing apps tomorrow
SOCIAL MIGRATIONVoice to Data
The UK example
People in the UK are now more likely to text than to make a phone call
While 58% of people communicated via texts on a daily basis in 2011, only 47% made a daily mobile call.
For the first time, there was a fall in the volume of mobile calls - by just over 1% - in 2011, while landline calls were down by 10%.
Overall time spent on the phone fell by 5% in 2011.
* Data taken from Ofcom report
SOCIAL MIGRATIONData to OTT
World sms vs OTT messages (billion)
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20180
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
SMS messages OTT messages
* Source: MobiThinking, Portio Research, World Bank
WHAT IS FORCING THE EVOLUTION?
IP
THE GREAT DENIALIs that a telecom operator I see with its head in the sand?
Denial
Anger
Depression
Bargaining
Acceptance
“ When a person is faced with the reality of impending death or other extreme, awful fate, he or she will experience a series of emotional stages”
THE 5 STAGES OF TELECOM OPERATORS’ GRIEF
READY FORTHE FIGHT
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
TOTAL IDD TOTAL VoIP off-net TOTAL VoIP on-net TOTAL IDD if VoIP did not exist
A great opportunity
WHAT IS THE OPPORTUNITY?
HOW ARE OPERATORS REACTINGThe OTT Challenge
Do nothing (wait and see)
Block OTTs
Partner with or buying OTTs
Compete with OTTs
• Create an app
• RCS-e / Joyn
Grow other market segments
HOW ARE OPERATORS REACTINGThe IP Challenge
Ride the TDM wave until the end and focus on data
Get ready for the IP convergence (adopt IPX)
Grow into other segments (data, content, media)
SERVICE EVOLUTIONWe're in the midst of an evolution, not a revolution
THE NEW VOICEVoice will not die but it will look different
BUSINESS MODELSWhat’s
The
Future
Convergence of voice and data into a single pipe, offering, bundle.
Voice becomes one of a series of IP services.
Consolidation of the International wholesale market could be triggered by IPX and migration to IP.
Per minute billing for voice could evolve to a capacity based billing down the line.
‘The best way to predict the future is to create it.’Peter Drucker
+1 514 270 1636
CONTACT INFORMATION
www.hottelecom.com
Isabelle Paradis, President
HOT TELECOM