the future of standards.ppt future of standards_2006.pdf · “prediction is very difficult,...

“Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future”- Niels Bohr (1885 - 1962)( )

The Future of Standards

Robby Robson, Chair, IEEE Learning Technology Standards Committeeg gy

The slides in this work are each separately licensed under a Creative Commons Attributionlicensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivs 2.5 License

Outline

1. Standards and standardization2 A i d d f l i2. A perspective on standards for learning

technology3. Changes that affect our work4. What might happen nextg pp

This slide is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivs 2.5 License. Some rights reserved.

25-01-06 The Future of Standards: International Plugfest II 2

Standards Can …

1 Specify the form and function of1. Specify the form and function of technology

2 Determine how information is exchanged2. Determine how information is exchanged3. Require procedures to be followed4. Define acceptable outcomes



Standards Can…

1 Specify the form and function of1. Specify the form and function of technology

2 Determine how information is exchanged2. Determine how information is exchanged3. Require procedures to be followed4. Define acceptable outcomesLearning technology standards define g gytechnological infrastructure



Effective Standards Operate Invisibly

This ….

Sccreenshot fromm D

reamw

eaaver™ 8 D

essign View



Effective Standards Operate Invisibly

And not necessarily this ….

Sccreenshot fromm D

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odde View



Good standards are enablers

• Make it possible to build better productsMake it possible to build better products • Provide a basis for new solutions

D t d fi h t d t• Do not define what products or applications should be built

• Good standards are about being good g genough, not being perfect!



Standards do not cure all ills

• Applying standards requiresApplying standards requires communication, agreements and understandingunderstanding

• Technical standards do not solve non-technical problemstechnical problems

“First learn the meaning of what you say and then speak ”First learn the meaning of what you say, and then speak.- Epictetus (55 - 135)

“The most important thing in communication is to hear what isn't being said.”



- Peter Drucker (1909 - 2005)

ISO (and hence IEEE) principles

• OPENNESS• CONSENSUS• BALANCE

DUE PROCESS• DUE PROCESS• RIGHT TO APPEAL

• These apply to accredited standards development organizations

• These may not apply to other standards development organizations



Observation on Standardization

Nothing is a standard until it is acknowledged and adopted b the comm nitadopted by the community it servesit serves



Why Bother With Standards?

INNOVATIONINNOVATION

• Standards define and catalyze new technology

• Standards enable new solutions• Standards solve existing problems




HELP THE HELP THE CONSUMERCONSUMERCONSUMERCONSUMER

• Standards prevent lock-in• Standards accelerate commoditization• Standards increase reliabilityStandards increase reliability• Standards enable competition




BUILD BUILD MARKETSMARKETSMARKETSMARKETS

• Standards can lower design, d l t d d ti tdevelopment and production costs

• Standards help modularize supply chains• Standards build consumer confidence• Standardization distributes effort



Who participates

INNOVATIONINNOVATION HELP THE HELP THE CONSUMERCONSUMER

BUILD BUILD MARKETSMARKETSCONSUMERCONSUMER MARKETSMARKETS

• ResearchersResearchers• Academics

C t t t i t• Corporate strategists



Who participates

INNOVATIONINNOVATION HELP THE HELP THE CONSUMERCONSUMER


• Government AgenciesGovernment Agencies• Consumer Groups

C i l ki f ifi• Companies looking for specific competitive advantages



Who participates

INOVATIONINOVATION HELP THE HELP THE CONSUMERCONSUMER


• Commercial enterprisesCommercial enterprises• Industry groups



When Does Standardization Occur?

INOVATIONINOVATION HELP THE HELP THE CONSUMERCONSUMER


Market moves from underserved to overserved*

* Clayton M Christensen & Michael E Raynor, (2003). The Innovator’s Solution: Creating and Sustaining Successful Growth, Harvard g gBusiness School Press, Cambridge, Mass.

Need arises in an influential community



What Issues are affecting the Future of Standards?

• Patents – BIG PROBLEMI f i d i i• Information and communication technology has unique characteristics– Semantics are important– Parts of standards must be openly available– The need for Interoperability among systems

is being replaced by the need for i t bilit t d d !interoperability among standards!

“Every kind of peaceful cooperation among men is primarily based on mutual trust and only secondarily on institutions such as courts of justice and police.”



t ust a d o y seco da y o st tut o s suc as cou ts o just ce a d po ceAlbert Einstein (1879 - 1955)

What has happened to standards i l i t h l ?in learning technology?

"Study the past if you would define the future.”- Confucius (551 - 479 BCE)Confucius (551 479 BCE)

“To make no mistakes is not in the power of man; but from their errors and mistakes the wise and good learn wisdom for the future.”

Pl t h (46 120)



- Plutarch (46 – 120)

Lots of organizations formedDLF(1995)

IEEEOKI

EICASISO(1994)

SIF

AICC(1988)

IEEELTSC

EdNACEN/ISSS

WS-LTCanCore

But fe

But fe

SIFEdNA(1994)

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

ew sin

ew sin

ARIADNEADLIMS

JTC1SC36 ebXML

Dublin

ce 200ce 200

ALICOASISW3C(1994)

DublinCore

(1995)

MERLOT

HR-XMLCONSOR-

TIUM

0101

AEN



(1994)

Goals and drivers evolved

GOAL GOAL

Research Driven Consumer Driven

• GOAL: Standardize all Standardize all of learning technologyof learning technology

• Characterized by

• GOAL: Learning Learning content interoperabilitycontent interoperability

• Characterized byy– Many activities– Little implementation

Proliferation of

y– Government involvement– Focus on “learning

management systems”– Proliferation of organizations – Adoption &

Implementation

19961996 19971997 19981998 19991999 20002000 20012001 20022002 20032003 20042004 20052005



Working theories were replaced

IEEE LTSC Web Site, October 12, 1999



By Accredited StandardsIES E

EE

Appro

Standards oved Lear

available rning Techas of Janu nology

uary, 2006



6)

In specification consortiaIM

S Gl

IMS G

lC

onsoC

onso24 Feb24 Feb lobal Le

lobal Leortium

Wortium

Wbruary, 2bruary, 2 earning

earningW

eb SitW

eb Sit20002000

g g te, te,



Specs were released and horizons broadened

IMS

IMS

We

We S G

lobalS G

lobaleb Site, 0eb Site, 0 Learnin

Learnin08 Janua08 Janua ng C

onsong C

onsoary, 2006ary, 2006 ortium

ortium



By 2005 We Had A Portfolio

• Driven byDriven by– Young companies* and a few key consumer

groups (Aviation Defense Higher Education)groups (Aviation, Defense, Higher Education)• Focused on

Content Interoperability and Learning Delivery– Content Interoperability and Learning Delivery Systems

*including new divisions within large software vendors



g g

Metadata

Purpose StandardsSearch / Discovery / C t l i / P i

• Learning Object Metadata*D bli C M t d tCataloging / Processing • Dublin Core Metadata (DC-ED)



* Part of SCORM 2004

Learning Content Formats

Purpose Specs & StandardsOrganize & Transport L i C t t &

• IMS Content P k i *Learning Content &

“Learning Objects”Packaging*

• AICC Course Structure F tFormat

Store & Exchange Online Quiz Questions

• IMS Question & Test InteroperabilityOnline Quiz Questions Interoperability




Data Exchange

P rpose Specs & StandardsPurpose Specs & StandardsCommunicate data between content &

• HTTP AICC Communication Protocolbetween content &

delivery platform• IEEE Runtime Communication

(JavaScript API)*

Define and Encode data • AICC CMI Data Model (adoptedDefine and Encode data to be exchanged

AICC CMI Data Model (adopted by IEEE)*

Exchange Enrollment • IMS EnterpriseExchange Enrollment Data

• IMS Enterprise




Learner Records

P rpose Specs & StandardsPurpose Specs & StandardsExchange Learner Information

• IMS Learner Information PackageInformation

Record status of • AICC CMI Data Model (adopted by IEEE)*learning objectives by IEEE)

• Parts of IMS Simple Sequencing*




Learning Management

Purpose Specs & StandardsTelling a Management System what to deliver next

• AICC CMI specificationsIMS Si l S i *System what to deliver next • IMS Simple Sequencing*

Higher level organization • IMS Learning Designg gof Learning Activities

g g




And Widespread, Increasing Adoption (Compiled in 2004)

Sources: Various Brandon-Hall Reports (Excepting Last Column)

1997/8 LMS

2000 LMS 2001 LCMS

2003 LMS

2003 LCMS

2004 Authoring Tools

Current Course Management Systems

Number of Systems 27 56 29 23 43 23

AICC Support 41% 52% 83% 87% 65% 26%

Certified * * 7% 13% 9% *

Compliant * * 76% 74% 56% *

Support Planned * 23% * 4% 0% *Support Planned 23% 4% 0%

No AICC Exists / Planned 59% 25% 17% 9% 35% 74%

SCORM Support * 17% 83% 87% 72% 43%

1 2 * * * 83% 63% 39%1.2 83% 63% 39%

Other * * * 4% 9% 4%

Support Planned * 2% 7% 13% 5% *

No SCORM Exists / Planned 100% 80% 10% 0% 23% 52%

IMS Metadata * 34% * * * 43%

IMS Metadata Planned * 25% * * * *

IMS Content Packaging * * * * * 61%

IMS QTI * * * * * 22%



IMS QTI 22%

IMS (not specified) * * * * * 9%

But the world of But the world of l i t il i t ilearning systems is learning systems is changing in some changing in some significant ways …significant ways …

“Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world. Indeed, it is the only thing that ever has.”



- Margaret Mead (1901 - 1978)

The Topology is Changing

• Client / Server topologies replaced by massively distributedmassively distributed heterogeneousl l l d t kloosely coupled networks



The Scope is Widening



Services are Ascending

Service RegistryRegistry

Publish:UDDI

Find:UDDI

Service User

Service Provider

Describe: WSDL

Access: SOAP



Contexts are Changing

Learning Management

Human Capital Development

Supply Chains

LearningContent

Enterprise Knowledge

Customer Relations

Management Management

Training Transformation

E-Knowledge Transformation

GlobalizationTransformation Transformation

Learning LearningTechnology Architecture Workflow

Learning



The Industry is Maturing

Source for this slide: ASTD’s Field Guide to Learning Management Systems Learning



Systems, Learning Circuits, August 2005

Research is Taking Place




2525--0101--0606 The Future of Standards: International Plugfest The Future of Standards: International Plugfest IIII

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ARCHITECTURES & BUSINESS MODELS are affecting STANDARDS

R h D i C D i I d t D iResearch Driven Consumer Driven Industry Driven

19961996 19971997 19981998 19991999 20002000 20012001 20022002 20032003 20042004 20052005

“It is an error to imagine that evolution signifies a constant tendency to g g yincreased perfection. That process undoubtedly involves a constant remodeling of the organism in adaptation to new conditions; but it depends on the nature of those conditions whether the directions of the modifications effected shall be upward or downward.”- Thomas H. Huxley (1825 - 1895)



Raising NEW ISSUES and requiring DIFFERENT STANDARDS ENABLERS

Type of Type of SystemSystem

Some Top IssuesSome Top Issues Enabling StandardsEnabling Standards

Monolithic • Programmed • Standardized1980

Monolithic (e.g. Plato)

• Programmed Learning

• Data reporting

• Standardized language

• Standard reports

Business Environment: In the 1980’s, applications of computers to learning Business Environment: In the 1980’s, applications of computers to learning



pp p gwas a research area.

pp p gwas a research area.


Type of SystemType of System Some Top IssuesSome Top Issues Enabling StandardsEnabling Standards

19 Monolithic (e.g. Plato)


• Standardized languageSt d d t

980 Plato) Learning• Data reporting

• Standard reports

1 Client / Server (e g institutional

• Data exchangeS ti

• Communication Protocols995

(e.g. institutional LMS)

• Separating content & platform

Protocols• Data models

Business Environment: In the 1990’s, research projects and startup Business Environment: In the 1990’s, research projects and startup



p j pcompanies were spawned by new opportunities presented by the Internet

p j pcompanies were spawned by new opportunities presented by the Internet


Type of SystemType of System Some Top IssuesSome Top Issues Enabling StandardsEnabling Standards

19 Monolithic (e.g. Plato)


• Standardized language

980 Plato) Learning• Data reporting

language• Standard reports

1 Client / Server (e g institutional

• Data exchangeS ti

• Communication Protocols995

(e.g. institutional LMS)

• Separating content & platform

Protocols• Data models

Distributed • Information • Identifiers / Metadata /2005

Distributed Homogeneous (e.g. Enterprise clusters)

• Information Management

• Data Exchange

• Identifiers / Metadata / Registries

• Service definitions / data models

Business Environment: Between 2000 and 2005, learning technology became Business Environment: Between 2000 and 2005, learning technology became



g gycommoditized. Consumers looked to standards to reduce costs and risk.

g gycommoditized. Consumers looked to standards to reduce costs and risk.


Type of SystemType of System Some Top Some Top IssuesIssues

Enabling StandardsEnabling Standards

Di t ib t d D t li d C tDistributed Heterogeneous (“Advanced Distributed

• De-centralized learning managementIntegrating

• Competency standards

• Content interchange formats2010

Distributed Learning”)

• Integrating diverse systems and contexts

formats• Workflow • Rights / Access

contexts• Intellectual

property

control• Context

management

Business Environment: It appears that learning technology will continue to mature as an industry, expand to include even more interactive environmentsBusiness Environment: It appears that learning technology will continue to mature as an industry, expand to include even more interactive environments



mature as an industry, expand to include even more interactive environments and become more deeply integrated into enterprise technologymature as an industry, expand to include even more interactive environments and become more deeply integrated into enterprise technology

In general …

• Learning technology is less distinguishable• Learning technology is less distinguishable from other enterprise infrastructure.

• Learning applications are far more diverse.

Th bl i l i l i• The problem is no longer managing learning.• The problem is letting learning take place

and managing everything around itand managing everything around it.



SO …

WHAT WILL HAPPEN?



Metadata will mature into context managementg

“Information is Not data

Too often the words information andSemantic

Web

Too often the words information and data are used interchangeably which leads to confusion. Data is unstructured, lacks context and

Query Standards

may not be relevant to the recipient. When data is correctly organized, filtered and presented with context it can become information because

Automated Generation

it can become information because it then has ‘value’ to the recipient.”

- Wikipedia on “information”



Work is being done …

• DC & LOM are being fit into an abstractDC & LOM are being fit into an abstract framework amenable to RDF and subsequent mapping (not cross-walking)subsequent mapping (not cross walking)

• AMG is being approached by industry and academic projectsacademic projects

• Repositories are being federated• Query languages are being developed



Content Standards will become Copernican (None will be the center of the universe)

Tech Pubs & Tech Pubs & DocumentationDocumentation

“Offi ”“Offi ”Content

Packaging

Learning Learning ContentContent

OpenOffice

“Office” “Office” DocumentsDocuments

Packaging

MPEG-21 Digital

Multimedia Multimedia ContentContent

S1000D: Tech Pubs /

Common

E-ContentE-BusinessE-Knowledge g

Item Descriptio

n Language

ContentContent

M t d t

Common Source Data

Base

gE-Learners

LanguageMetadata Encoding &

Transmission Standard Digital Digital

LibrariesLibraries

Darwin Information

Typing Architecture

Help Screens Help Screens (EPSS)(EPSS)



LibrariesLibraries(EPSS)(EPSS)


• S1000D – SCORM integrationS1000D SCORM integration• HLA – SCORM integration• Use of MPEG-21 Part II as a universal formatUse of MPEG-21 Part II as a universal format

(e.g. Los Alamos National Labs)• Use of Open Document Format as an underlyingUse of Open Document Format as an underlying

content model• Development of a reference model to aid e e op e t o a e e e ce ode to a d

translation among formats (IEEE LTSC project)



We will borrow a LOT from enterprise servicesp

“When I took office, only high energy physicists had ever heard of what is called the Worldwide Web.... Now even my cat has its own page.”

B i P E ti LB i P E ti L

y p g- Bill Clinton (1946 - )

Business Process Execution LanguageBusiness Process Execution Language



Diagram Courtesy Icodeon


• Services frameworks have been proposed SCORM l d i b i d b• SCORM related services are being created by technology companiesD t d l d API b i d l i d• Data models and APIs are being modularized

• Persistent unique identifiers are being proposed



COMPETENCY MANAGEMENT will rise to the fore

Relationships Among

Competencies

Evidence of Competency

Competencies

D fi i i f

Learning Experiences

Definitions of Competencies & Objectives

People

LearnerLearner Information




• Models are being developedModels are being developed• The HR community is getting involved

E i ti t d d b i li d• Existing standards are being applied• But it is hard to mix technology, learning

theory and business drivers!

“Science is facts; just as houses are made of stones, so is science made of facts; but a pile of stones is not a house and a collection of facts is not necessarily science.”- Henri Poincare (1854 - 1912)



Henri Poincare (1854 1912)

Rights Management will be key

“Digital Rights Management” is a way to route intellectual property. It doesto route intellectual property. It does for information and knowledge what switches and TCP/IP do for data.switches and TCP/IP do for data.

“It is dangerous to be right in matters on which the established authorities are wrong.”- Voltaire (1694 - 1778)




• Lots of standards existLots of standards exist• The problem is how to apply them

A d h t t d b t th !• And what to do about them!



So …

WHAT CAN WE DO TO ENSURE A BRIGHT FUTURE?



Some “simple” things …

• Ground standards in practice and scienceG ith th ICT fl• Go with the ICT flow

• Divide and conquer problems – Across organization– Across borders

Across domains– Across domains• Pay attention to other standards arenas

“We must all hang together or assuredly we shall all hang separately.

B j i F kli (1706 1790)



- Benjamin Franklin (1706 - 1790)

AND ABOVE ALL ….

PARTICIPATEPARTICIPATE

"The world is run by those who show up."- Anonymous



Anonymous

QUESTIONS?

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