the future of forecasting
TRANSCRIPT
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THE FUTURE OF FORECASTING
ERIC GARLAND
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Forecasting has been, is, and will always be about collecting data,
applying analytical tools, and convincing decision makers.
THE FUTURE:
More data collectedMore help from softwareConsiderably more complexityStill the same human activity
TL;DR
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EVERYBODY FORECASTS• CEOs
• Financial forecasters
• Product managers
• Supply chain engineers
• Geopolitical risk analysts
• Subject matter experts
• Futurists
• Bankers
• People getting a puppy
• Kids picking a college major
• Anyone who has babies
• Anyone who wants to retire
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FORECASTING: WE ALL SUCK
AT IT
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Let’s do some mid-term normative scenarios on rain
and saber-toothed tigers.
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Same impulse, crappy data set, crappy tools
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“What sir? You would make a ship that sails against the winds and tides? I have no time for such nonsense.”
- Napoleon Bonaparte to Robert Fulton, 1803
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“It has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communications.
The device is inherently of no use to us.”
- Western Union, internal memo, 1876
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OMG THIS TECHNOLOGY
WILL LEAD TO WORLD PEACE!
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WORLD PEACE!
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WORLD PEACE!
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WORLD PEACE!
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How did we miss this?
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In 2003, the Japanese Nuclear Commission said this would happen once per million years.
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OUR CURRENT PREDICAMENT: We try to fit mechanistic, incremental
forecasting into a complex, transformative world
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WHERE WE GO FROM HERE: Trends driving the
future of forecasting
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STRATEGIC TRENDSMoore’s Law Continues
Advanced sensor arrays
Quantum computing
Massive Data™
Advanced algorithms
Virtual reality
People remain people
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INTEL FORECAST: MOORE’S LAW WILL
FUNCTION THROUGH 2021 AND BEYOND
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SENSORS EVERYWHERE
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MICROSOFT FORECAST: FIRST QUANTUM COMPUTER BY 2026
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MASSIVE DATA
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A LITTLE HELP FROM OUR FRIENDS
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MEGATREND: PEOPLE WILL
REMAIN PEOPLE
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@ERICGARLAND
ERIC GARLAND