forecasting future disruptions
TRANSCRIPT
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Forecasting Future DisruptionsStrategic Change Is Inevitable
Prof. Bill Halal
2015
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What are the key forecasts to 2030for emerging technologies, social trends, and wild
cards…
What are the possible impacts?
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Sound strategic planning is rarely practiced in most organizations today, and at a critical time when the world
is changing dramatically, it has never been more necessary.
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Exceptions
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Some corporations and governments do a fine job scanning the horizon for disruptive trends in technology, markets, and society, and devising strategies to adapt, or
even use the disruptive forces to their advantage.
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Most people are preoccupied with their current work and have difficulty finding time for strategic thinking.
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Climate Change…
Today, the challenges ahead are so unprecedented and so dangerous that they
cannot be ignored.
Tipping point of 400 ppm (parts per million) of Carbon Dioxide CO2
in the atmosphere in 2014
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Climate Change…
Today, the challenges ahead are so unprecedented and so dangerous that they
cannot be ignored.
Tipping point of 400 ppm (parts per million) of Carbon Dioxide CO2
in the atmosphere in 2014
Can we
guide the forces of change or will they
force us into directions we may not like?
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This article aims to help readers consider the challenges posed by the technology
revolution, globalization, and social changes, and to explore how to get your organization
on the right side of history
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Key findings from…
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Research method
TechCast is a Project…
The results show that technological and social advances, their adoption patterns, and impacts follow well-defined cycles that can be forecast
rather accurately
Collective intelligence to pool the knowledge of 130 high-
techCEOs, scientists, engineers,
academics, consultants, futurists, and other experts
worldwide to forecast breakthroughs in a
comprehensive range of fields.
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1. The Technology Revolution
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Adoption level:Some think of it as the
emergence of the technological singularity.
Futurist Ray Kurzweil defines theSingularity as
"a future period during which the pace of technological change will be so rapid, its impact so deep,
that human life will be irreversibly transformed"
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Table 1 - Emerging Technologies Forecasts
Each technology will reach its next adoption level
The potential global market size in US$ at
saturation
The confidence level of the experts for each
forecast
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Table 2 - Emerging Technologies Forecasts
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Table 3 - Emerging Technologies Forecasts
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